ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

Agree. Idk how/where people are getting money to spend.
Me neither yet they always seem to have it. Go to Disneyland on a Wednesday in January and it's packed. Go to an airport at 10am on a Tuesday in October and it's packed, mostly not with business travelers. Americans have money. They whine that they don't because they're spoiled and can never have enough.
 
That's not true. We are taking in more revenue because of the tax cuts. We are getting off track on this.

GDP numbers strong but anecdotal evidence not adding up to me.

Also, if the economy is so strong why are we penciling in rate cuts? That also is baffling me.
The tax cuts given out never pay for themselves. That's why tax cuts since Reagan have always been followed by deficits. Only in some relatively small cases where the tax cuts are targeted and well done do they pay for themselves. This was all based on the Laffer Curve, which does not say tax cuts pay for themselves. It says tax cuts pay for themselves IF the tax rate was higher than the optimal number.
 
The push is to convince the public all is great now …stock market is up so the world is ok. GDP… housing sales, renters can’t afford the rents which are more than a mortgage in some instances. 2-3 bedroom rentals …called luxury are for many out of the question. A cheaper area in NJ ( Middlesex County) has rents going anywhere from upper 2k up to over 4000k . Every available space of land is sold to anxious developers.Don’t worry someday soon the price will come way down…or we are going to have a large number of squatters. A large supply will drive the price down. At least that’s what the guy at Subway told me.
I see the exact opposite. The push is to convince people the economy is bad.

All of the people I know from the ages of 25 to 90 doing great economically
 
I see the exact opposite. The push is to convince people the economy is bad.

All of the people I know from the ages of 25 to 90 doing great economically
Yeah. That’s political for the election. If the economy tanks it doesn’t help the incumbent.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUBOB72
I see the exact opposite. The push is to convince people the economy is bad.

All of the people I know from the ages of 25 to 90 doing great economically
I see the exact opposite. The push is to convince people the economy is bad.

All of the people I know from the ages of 25 to 90 doing great economically
The economy IS bad for more than who you claim to know. … I will wager that there are millions upon millions of between 25-90 who are far more apt to be in mounds of debt #1 ….#2 can’t afford a home… #3 you don’t know enough people to believe otherwise... #4 if you are age 90 you don’t give a shit….if 25 to 40 you don’t care because you should be doing well . Many are single or have two incomes coming in. I can sight my two sons as examples of doing well . Does that mean that’s the example we should use on the economy. I told you I believe a month ago….all it will take is one or two major factors to occur and you can claim ignorance on the issue. If you travel around the US you may see the people who would laugh at you. If you aren’t solvent by your 50’s you probably will never be. tom1944 if you and those thousands of people you know are all living in this economic utopia you should be running the country. Have a good weekend.
 
Factually speaking, tax revs went up significantly after the tax cuts. They always do. Tax cuts are always good
+1
Doesn't take much effort to look up the facts. Federal tax revenue boomed after the JFK, Reagan, and GWB tax cuts (once rate changes were implemented).
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUBOB72
Lol you also think there is no inflation.
Let's be clear. Inflation and higher prices are two different things. While inflation is way down from the 2021/2022 highs and approaching the Fed target level, higher prices are still here and will remain.

A burrito at Chipotle is now $12 and people are pissed! :)
 
I see the exact opposite. The push is to convince people the economy is bad.

All of the people I know from the ages of 25 to 90 doing great economically
People at the lower end of the spectrum are getting into trouble. Higher debt to income ratios, more defaults, more delinquency. Upper end people are generally doing well other than dealing with inflation and lack of housing supply
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
Sure if say 8 years ( ex. son ) ago , in Bethpage NY/ Nassau County , purchased a moderate size 3 bed -2 bath for 410 k. Today that exact same home is around 800 k . Nice neighborhood…outstanding schools… recreation … shopping etc. but same home. Now he’s thinking he and the family can sell it and move to… Where else Florida…. Only problem is for what and where he wants to go will not be in the same … good weather… mostly… some cheaper prices…. maybe but as I told him think it over. Both teachers … not going to make the same as in say NJ, Conn. NY… but I understand the temptation to pull the strings.
 
People at the lower end of the spectrum are getting into trouble. Higher debt to income ratios, more defaults, more delinquency. Upper end people are generally doing well other than dealing with inflation and lack of housing supply
Better Call Tom … oh wait that’s Better Call Saul… wrong guy.
 
Lol you also think there is no inflation.
Never said there was no inflation

What I said that inflation did not have a significant impact on me or my financial situation

I retired last year and was able to start a business and go on great vacations and saved $60,000.

So anecdotally to me the economy is great. I also just got a new client which will bring in $20 to 30k this year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
People at the lower end of the spectrum are getting into trouble. Higher debt to income ratios, more defaults, more delinquency. Upper end people are generally doing well other than dealing with inflation and lack of housing supply
That has almost always been true. The lower end of the income structure has always struggled.
 
You have to love those who continue to try painting one side as ALWAYS the bad guys….accuse them of using political greed… ultimately it keeps telling a different story when you go outside of your little world and listen to people in stores, school playgrounds , restaurants or just in a county park. Oh the American Dream ….slowly dying.
 
Let's be clear. Inflation and higher prices are two different things. While inflation is way down from the 2021/2022 highs and approaching the Fed target level, higher prices are still here and will remain.

A burrito at Chipotle is now $12 and people are pissed! :)
Inflation might solve our health care crisis if people stop buying fast food
 
You have to love those who continue to try painting one side as ALWAYS the bad guys….accuse them of using political greed… ultimately it keeps telling a different story when you go outside of your little world and listen to people in stores, school playgrounds , restaurants or just in a county park. Oh the American Dream ….slowly dying.
I agree it’s nauseating
 
When the average family income is $70,000 and healthcare costs $20,000 of course there is trouble for the average family but that situation has existed since I entered the career workforce in 1980.
 
Inflation might solve our health care crisis if people stop buying fast food
That would be good for society. However, Chipotle is relatively "healthy" fast food as long as you don't sour cream and guac it all up. Burrito bowls are the best choice (which I get quite often).
 
Inflation might solve our health care crisis if people stop buying fast food
tom1944: why is it when you don’t have an answer now you immediately deflect to a completely different issue ? The health issue you bring up, like the border issue , like the crime issues , like the on campus vile protest issue , like the gun issues could have been solved by both sides for several decades…
When the average family income is $70,000 and healthcare costs $20,000 of course there is trouble for the average family but that situation has existed since I entered the career workforce in 1980.
And yet you have survived, you are retired and doing well. So , who are you blaming for the medical cost debacle.? I ‘ve lived through and worked through 11 presidencies 6 R ‘s… 5 D’Souza … all are responsible for the issues which we face going forward. People fail to admit that fact ….they want their team to come out on top. Meanwhile millions will suffer and it could be all who are now doing so well in our booming economy. At least you think so.
 
I see the exact opposite. The push is to convince people the economy is bad.

All of the people I know from the ages of 25 to 90 doing great economically
You need to get out more. I deal with a very wide spectrum of people from all different backgrounds. And while I am doing well it really isnt the case for a lot of folks.

I have an admin who I pay a solid salary. She unsolicited yesterday was telling me how bad the economy is. I dont think shes ever watched the news either, shes an immigrant who came here when she was young. That wasnt just a news talking point, it was mostly about how expensive her grocery store trips have gotten.

I have a bunch of employees on our properties too. They seem to all feel the same way. Realistically, it’s the top 10-20% of wage earners who feel fine, the other 80-90% dont. Issue is too many people live in bubbles and dont realize this is a country of 330,000,000+ people. And then when November rolls around and Trump wins and people are perplexed how something like that could happen it’s because of, well, the economy stupid. Paired with the fact youre not getting out and talking with people who arent just mirror images of yourself
 
Back on real estate. The “millennials will never buy” crowd is brutally wrong. Even at this high prices theyre finding ways to buy

 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
Factually speaking, we've gotten nothing but deficits.
Pssssst, you might wanna look up how spending has changed ;)

Riddle me this, how do you calculate a surplus/deficit, what is the math equation? We have a spending problem not a revenue problem.
 
tom1944: why is it when you don’t have an answer now you immediately deflect to a completely different issue ? The health issue you bring up, like the border issue , like the crime issues , like the on campus vile protest issue , like the gun issues could have been solved by both sides for several decades…

And yet you have survived, you are retired and doing well. So , who are you blaming for the medical cost debacle.? I ‘ve lived through and worked through 11 presidencies 6 R ‘s… 5 D’Souza … all are responsible for the issues which we face going forward. People fail to admit that fact ….they want their team to come out on top. Meanwhile millions will suffer and it could be all who are now doing so well in our booming economy. At least you think so.
Bob I don’t believe I have blamed any politician or political party on any of my posts
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
Now tom1944 that is nauseating. It has been a long 3 years and I’m too busy to review 3 years off Poli Sci drivel. And I didn’t say you … I mentioned the years and characters who have graced 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.Now go back to sleep.
 
Now tom1944 that is nauseating. It has been a long 3 years and I’m too busy to review 3 years off Poli Sci drivel. And I didn’t say you … I mentioned the years and characters who have graced 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.Now go back to sleep.
This is the thread we are discussing. I don't believe I responded to any of the posts by blaming any politician or political party.

Just review this thread.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
Never said there was no inflation

What I said that inflation did not have a significant impact on me or my financial situation

I retired last year and was able to start a business and go on great vacations and saved $60,000.

So anecdotally to me the economy is great. I also just got a new client which will bring in $20 to 30k this year.
Absolutely
The Economy is the best it has been in the last 15 years.
Stock Market at record highs. Employment at record highs. GDP at record highs. US Industrial Production is the highest in the last 3 years ( this is the 4th leading indicator of US Economy performance) and Gas prices have been coming down. Of course the lunatic Right Wing Party and Fox are blatantly lying as usual and spreading their fake news.
 
What’s the forecast for housing prices at the shore for the next few years?
 
What’s the forecast for housing prices at the shore for the next few years?
I dont sell down there but I can tell you from looking down there as a buyer, nothing makes sense. Youre far better off renting than buying down there imo
 
Let's be clear. Inflation and higher prices are two different things. While inflation is way down from the 2021/2022 highs and approaching the Fed target level, higher prices are still here and will remain.

A burrito at Chipotle is now $12 and people are pissed! :)
Dude argued ITT that there was basically no inflation when I told him it's been like 30% since Biden took over. I don't even read his posts anymore. Living on another planet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
I dont sell down there but I can tell you from looking down there as a buyer, nothing makes sense. Youre far better off renting than buying down there imo
Even the rents make no sense down there anymore. I started a thread on this and was proven right they were soft last year. I'm trying to buy something in the Caymans instead but holy fvck do they hold you to a higher standard down there. Plus rates higher, term shorter...major F you money down there.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT