Pac 12 Media Rights - Conference Realignment

[mosito]

There have been some rumblings recently. I will try to bring up some items i have run into (The attached link seems to sum up many of the items)

• Pac-12 got hosed when the Big 12 jumped on their Media Rights as there isn't as much money and/or need left over for Pac-12
• Amazon and Apple have been noted as potential landing spots. Does ESPN only take 1 game if anything?
• Money seems to be a lot lower than expected. Does that cause the 4 corner schools (or anyone) to bolt?
• If anyone leaves, does that leave Washington and Oregon scrambling to join the Big12 temporarily? Does the Big10 come in and scoop them up at lower payout.
• If somehow the money is somewhat there, do they expand by bringing up SMU and San Jose St.
• Merge with the ACC (only benefits the bottom 60-80% of the ACC)

https://www.deseret.com/2023/2/22/23608741/pac-12-scrambles-to-land-a-new-media-rights-deal-apple-tv

 

[RUTGERS95]

digital only is a loser at the junction, will kill that conference

 

[WhiteBus]

Yet people here think taking USC and UCLA was a home run. None of the other schools create media income near what the Big Ten does. However, the Big Ten will have to pick up about 4 of the PAC 12 bottom feeders to complete a West Coast presence

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

MLS went with Apple starting this year. Games will also be on Fox and FS1. I think the deal with MLS makes more sense because it is an international sport and Apple TV+ might sell some subs abroad. I also think the MLS deal simplifies how people in other countries can watch MLS. Pac 12 ball, OTOH, only appeals to US fans - and even there, mainly for people in the Pacific and Mountain Time Zones. I think this is the way that sports will be broadcast but seems to be a financial step back for the conference (at least for now). The Pac 12 really effed up the Pac 12 Network, and then this new deal. Seems like a real problem with conference leadership.

I am ever so thankful that BTN is also owned by Fox Sports. Going alone was a terrible move by the Pac 12.

 

[bigmatt718]

B1G will grab Oregon/Washington/Stanford and maybe Cal sooner or later.

 

[nickp91]

Yormark was a genius opening the Big 12's rights to the market early

 

[mosito]

Yormark was a genius opening the Big 12's rights to the market early

The Big12 has positioned itself as the 4th strongest conference..... and if a couple of teams ever bolt from the ACC, it will be a distant 3rd, but clearly ahead of the rest.

Who would have thought that after Texas and Oklahoma left.

 

[megadrone]

The Big12 has positioned itself as the 4th strongest conference..... and if a couple of teams ever bolt from the ACC, it will be a distant 3rd, but clearly ahead of the rest.

Who would have thought that after Texas and Oklahoma left.

BYU was the best available, and Houston was a good fit. As much as Cincinnati has succeeded wherever they land, not sure how much value they would have brought individually. But as a package, BYU/Houston/Cincinnati/UCF is a good value, and BYU did have a National Championship in their past.

The Big 12 reminds me of the Big East in the 2005 - 2012 timeframe. Schools that could complete for the playoffs, just not on an annual basis, and there will be years where the winner isn't really top 4 playoff worthy. Top 12 playoff, probably every year with TCU/Baylor/BYU/Cincinnati/WVU/K-State in the mix.

 

[Arizona Knight]

Yet people here think taking USC and UCLA was a home run. None of the other schools create media income near what the Big Ten does. However, the Big Ten will have to pick up about 4 of the PAC 12 bottom feeders to complete a West Coast presence

It was a home run. USC vs half the B1G will get insane ratings every year.

USC vs Penn State
USC vs Michigan
USC vs Nebraska
USC vs Ohio State
USC vs Wisconsin
USC vs Michigan State

Those are all monsters from a ratings perspective. Swap USC out for UCLA, Washington, or Oregon and it’s still a pretty damn solid national game.

Eventually maybe USC vs ND could be under the B1G fold.

 

[megadrone]

It was a home run. USC vs half the B1G will get insane ratings every year.

USC vs Penn State
USC vs Michigan
USC vs Nebraska
USC vs Ohio State
USC vs Wisconsin
USC vs Michigan State

Those are all monsters from a ratings perspective. Swap USC out for UCLA, Washington, or Oregon and it’s still a pretty damn solid national game.

Eventually maybe USC vs ND could be under the B1G fold.

It will be as a USC home game.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

The easy solution is why not pick up the St. Schools for Utah and Colorado to make Pac 12?

AZ & AZ St, Colorado & Colorado St, Utah & Utah St
Cal & Stanford, Wash & Wash St, Oregon & Oregon St.

Maybe MWC picks up NM St for 10?

 

[RUNYGDVLSFAN]

hoping we are competitive🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏... but would be very excited for RU vs. USC in Piscataway. And, for BBall, be pretty awesome to play UCLA at the RAC !!!!!

 

[RUNYGDVLSFAN]

B1G will grab Oregon/Washington/Stanford and maybe Cal sooner or later.

i know it won't but would love to grab 2 x ACC teams, Virginia and maybe DUKE ?

 

[Arizona Knight]

i know it won't but would love to grab 2 x ACC teams, Virginia and maybe DUKE ?

Eventually it’s likely UNC and UVA. The same two top targets since we joined.

 

[RU_DIO]

Eventually it’s likely UNC and UVA. The same two top targets since we joined.

The B1G would love these 2 schools.

 

[Mr Magoo]

It was a home run. USC vs half the B1G will get insane ratings every year.

USC vs Penn State
USC vs Michigan
USC vs Nebraska
USC vs Ohio State
USC vs Wisconsin
USC vs Michigan State

Those are all monsters from a ratings perspective. Swap USC out for UCLA, Washington, or Oregon and it’s still a pretty damn solid national game.

Eventually maybe USC vs ND could be under the B1G fold.

It was also a home run because it was a big time response to the SEC snatching Texas and Oklahoma. If not, You could easily see the SEC going after USC and UCLA in the not too distant future relegating the B1G to second fiddle or worse for our lifetimes.

 

[Mr Magoo]

The easy solution is why not pick up the St. Schools for Utah and Colorado to make Pac 12?

AZ & AZ St, Colorado & Colorado St, Utah & Utah St
Cal & Stanford, Wash & Wash St, Oregon & Oregon St.

Maybe MWC picks up NM St for 10?

They already have those markets and those schools don’t bring anything new or valuable to the conference. It’s no longer much about just geography. I would make more sense to bring in SD State and SMU to get the San Diego and Dallas markets. It’s about $$$

 

[krup]

The B1G would love these 2 schools.

The ACC is locked up though about 2032-33.

From all accounts their GOR is airtight and no one is challenging it.

It will be bedlam after that (actually we will probably start hearing news about ACC teams moving a couple years before that, just like with OU/TX).

 

[Arizona Knight]

They already have those markets and those schools don’t bring anything new or valuable to the conference. It’s no longer much about just geography. I would make more sense to bring in SD State and SMU to get the San Diego and Dallas markets. It’s about $$$

The problem with SMU is even in Dallas (where I live) they are behind…

UT
OU
A&M
LSU
TCU
Baylor
Tech
and I may be forgetting others.

 

[RU_DIO]

The ACC is locked up though about 2032-33.

From all accounts their GOR is airtight and no one is challenging it.

It will be bedlam after that (actually we will probably start hearing news about ACC teams moving a couple years before that, just like with OU/TX).

Yeah I know. Conference realignment is a continuing process and can be played over a long period of time.

 

[bigmatt718]

The ACC is locked up though about 2032-33.

From all accounts their GOR is airtight and no one is challenging it.

It will be bedlam after that (actually we will probably start hearing news about ACC teams moving a couple years before that, just like with OU/TX).

2030 will be Year Zero, IMO. The B1G/SEC will carve the ACC up like a Thanksgiving turkey around year 2030.

 

[WhiteBus]

It was a home run. USC vs half the B1G will get insane ratings every year.

USC vs Penn State
USC vs Michigan
USC vs Nebraska
USC vs Ohio State
USC vs Wisconsin
USC vs Michigan State

Those are all monsters from a ratings perspective. Swap USC out for UCLA, Washington, or Oregon and it’s still a pretty damn solid national game.

Eventually maybe USC vs ND could be under the B1G fold.

All that is true but you are completely missing the point. The Big Ten will add 4 other West Coast teams that will bring nothing financially to the media rights package.

 

[Arizona Knight]

All that is true but you are completely missing the point. The Big Ten will add 4 other West Coast teams that will bring nothing financially to the media rights package.

If it’s 4 more I’ll agree. I suspect it will be 2.

You take Washington and Oregon and you get everything that counts out west except Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. I think the B1G can live with that.

 

[RUTGERS95]

The BIG will not leave the south/southeast alone.

 

[WhiteBus]

2030 will be Year Zero, IMO. The B1G/SEC will carve the ACC up like a Thanksgiving turkey around year 2030.

Why would the Big Ten want a bunch of basketball schools?

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

Eventually it’s likely UNC and UVA. The same two top targets since we joined.

This
Those were the targets during the last round as well
UNC balked b/c of leaving Duke, and VA state politics is very real w/UVA & VT
Eventually both will be in the B1G

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

The ACC is locked up though about 2032-33.

From all accounts their GOR is airtight and no one is challenging it.

It will be bedlam after that (actually we will probably start hearing news about ACC teams moving a couple years before that, just like with OU/TX).

GOR goes until 2036
It will implode well before then
My prediction of schools leaving is 2-3 years based on what I've heard

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

2030 will be Year Zero, IMO. The B1G/SEC will carve the ACC up like a Thanksgiving turkey around year 2030.

I've heard sooner (2025-2026)
But the point stands the schools will eventually get out of the GOR
When, and at what cost, remains to be seeen

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

Why would the Big Ten want a bunch of basketball schools?

Money my friend
UVA & UNC are the top 2 targets for reasons other than bball
Rumor is FSU coming as well

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

The BIG will not leave the south/southeast alone.

Exactly
If Phillips comes in like is widely speculated, expect things to accelerate
ND & ESPN still holding the cards

 

[WhiteBus]

Money my friend
UVA & UNC are the top 2 targets for reasons other than bball
Rumor is FSU coming as well

What money? Basketball isn't the driving force for big TV contracts. Neither of the schools are football schools. A lot has changed with since Rutgers and Maryland joined with TV subscriptions on cable networks which was the big boast to the Big Ten Network when we joined.

 

[bigmatt718]

Money my friend
UVA & UNC are the top 2 targets for reasons other than bball
Rumor is FSU coming as well

Exactly. Fans gotta look at expansion beyond sports.

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

What money? Basketball isn't the driving force for big TV contracts. Neither of the schools are football schools. A lot has changed with since Rutgers and Maryland joined with TV subscriptions on cable networks which was the big boast to the Big Ten Network when we joined.

You can't, don't want to, and will never, have 20 (or 12, 14, 16, etc.) hammer football schools in the same conference.
B1G is an academic consortium of land grant universities, all with the same missions and goals.

UVA / UNC fit that to a T.

Getting the expands into the southern footprint w/the 2 flagship universities of their respective states, both of whom are growing population wise exponentially.

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

Exactly. Fans gotta look at expansion beyond sports.

Absolutely
It goes well beyond sports
But sports and academics do work hand in hand

Both UVA / UNC have tremendous athletic traditions
OFFOMH...bball, lax, soccer, baseball, better than us in football, great facilities, good fanbases (UVA), national brand (UNC)

 

[krup]

GOR goes until 2036
It will implode well before then
My prediction of schools leaving is 2-3 years based on what I've heard

Not going to happen. The number of schools required to legally blow up the conference/GOR with a vote is too large given the number of ACC schools with an uncertain future when it does blow up.

There is no way to orchestrate an orderly dissolution of the conference because every school would have to be given a home in the SEC/B1G/B12 or they could sue for collusion.

In addition, it isn’t going to be clean when does happen a few years before the contract ends, because despite B1G fans always talking about UNC and UVA automatically coming to the B1G, the SEC and ESPN are not going to concede those states that easily, and both schools have factions that would rather be in the “southern” conference.

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

Not going to happen. The number of schools required to legally blow up the conference/GOR with a vote is too large given the number of ACC schools with an uncertain future when it does blow up.

There is no way to orchestrate an orderly dissolution of the conference because every school would have to be given a home in the SEC/B1G/B12 or they could sue for collusion.

In addition, it isn’t going to be clean when does happen a few years before the contract ends, because despite B1G fans always talking about UNC and UVA automatically coming to the B1G, the SEC and ESPN are not going to concede those states that easily, and both schools have factions that would rather be in the “southern” conference.

Texas & OU just showed us the blueprint
ACC lawyers from multiple schools already working on it

Throw in ESPN orchestrating things behind the scenes, and the big 4 (FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA) continuing to fall behind peers (and consequentially, ESPN losing their ass as the programs suffer and ratings drop), and you have your recipe for an exit

As I've said before, BC and Wake are done
Depending on what the B12 does, PItt/Cuse could also be gonzo

100 % correct in the SEC and ESPN not conceding southern states to the B1G. That creates urgency. Things are being worked out - again, it's a matter of when, who, and at what cost, the ACC implodes and where the Big 4 end up

 

[krup]

Texas & OU just showed us the blueprint
ACC lawyers from multiple schools already working on it

Throw in ESPN orchestrating things behind the scenes, and the big 4 (FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA) continuing to fall behind peers (and consequentially, ESPN losing their ass as the programs suffer and ratings drop), and you have your recipe for an exit

As I've said before, BC and Wake are done
Depending on what the B12 does, PItt/Cuse could also be gonzo

100 % correct in the SEC and ESPN not conceding southern states to the B1G. That creates urgency. Things are being worked out - again, it's a matter of when, who, and at what cost, the ACC implodes and where the Big 4 end up

If OU and TX showed us anything, it is that the ACC is NOT blowing up early.

The B12 has known OU and TX were leaving for a while now, and has lined up replacements, yet the strength of the B12 GOR meant that OU and TX had to negotiate with the B12 and pay a huge fee just leave one year early, even though the replacements would be starting before then.

If it cost $100 million just to get TX and OU out a year early, there is no way schools are leaving the ACC many years before the GOR runs out.

 

[WhiteBus]

Not going to happen. The number of schools required to legally blow up the conference/GOR with a vote is too large given the number of ACC schools with an uncertain future when it does blow up.

There is no way to orchestrate an orderly dissolution of the conference because every school would have to be given a home in the SEC/B1G/B12 or they could sue for collusion.

In addition, it isn’t going to be clean when does happen a few years before the contract ends, because despite B1G fans always talking about UNC and UVA automatically coming to the B1G, the SEC and ESPN are not going to concede those states that easily, and both schools have factions that would rather be in the “southern” conference.

What they are also ignoring is the fact that there has never been a hint from either school that they want to leave the ACC and join the Big Ten.

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

If OU and TX showed us anything, it is that the ACC is NOT blowing up early.

The B12 has known OU and TX were leaving for a while now, and has lined up replacements, yet the strength of the B12 GOR meant that OU and TX had to negotiate with the B12 and pay a huge fee just leave one year early, even though the replacements would be starting before then.

If it cost $100 million just to get TX and OU out a year early, there is no way schools are leaving the ACC many years before the GOR runs out.

Again, you're not looking at the big picture
OU & TX got out early with limited damage

Networks picking up part of $, B12 gets money, OU / TX get out

ACC schools already openly talking about uneven revenue sharing
You honestly think conference lasts 13 more years after unequal revenue sharing is discussed?

I rarely say trust me on this, but trust me when I say this... There's zero chance the ACC GOR stays in place until 2036

Nada, zero, zilch

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

What they are also ignoring is the fact that there has never been a hint from either school that they want to leave the ACC and join the Big Ten.

So schools are supposed to go on blast and say they're interested in joining other conferences?
UCLA/USC did that?
Texas / Oklahoma?
VT, BC, Miami from the Old Big East?

Everybody swears allegiances to their current situation, while the backroom deals are happening