Paths to the NCAA / NIT over the rest of the season

[RUfinal4]

NCAA is easy
go 4-4 the rest of the way and win 1st B10 tourney game. a 2nd win in the tourney guarantees us being in

NIT
go 2-6 the rest of the way and 1-1 in the B10 tourney

no post season
go 2-6 rest of the way and lose 1st b10 tourney game

most likely wins in order are
- Northwestern
- Ohio St
- Purdue
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Penn St
- Illinois
- Maryland

 

[kcg88]

2-6 would put us at 9-11... That's 100% in the NIT.

 

[bac2therac]

it will take a total meltdown for this team not to make the NIT at this point.

 

[RUNYC13]

In some ways we put away schedule is easier than our home schedule on paper...just about who shows up. If we play like we are capable we should win 2 of the road games.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

3 words (or acronyms) not to be in the same sentence.....

RUTGERS NCAA EASY

 

[sct1111]

What about 3-5? Depends what we do in the conference tournament.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

NCAA is easy
go 4-4 the rest of the way and win 1st B10 tourney game. a 2nd win in the tourney guarantees us being in

NIT
go 2-6 the rest of the way and 1-1 in the B10 tourney

no post season
go 2-6 rest of the way and lose 1st b10 tourney game

most likely wins in order are
- Northwestern
- Ohio St
- Purdue
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Penn St
- Illinois
- Maryland

20 wins we’re in; 19 still have a good shot. That’s all.

 

[RUby RED]

What about 3-5? Depends what we do in the conference tournament.

Yea definitely going to a need a run in the tourney. Steal 2 and we’d be squarely on the bubble

 

[fluoxetine]

Hurray another thread full of clueless bubble “analysis”

 

[Mr Magoo]

20 and I think we’re in. 19, I doubt it. I don’t want to have to sweat out a 1st round B1G tourney game stick at 19 wins. Of course, it really depends on the strength of the bubble and other things. 19 wins while beating Illinois and Maryland could do it too. Lack of a road win other than Nebraska would certainly hurt.

 

[brucelaw8]

Time to get real folks.We have 4 home games,(1 as heavy favorite,& 3 we can win with heavy payback implications).Away games winnable,though PSU looks pretty tough right now.We are close on the road and will win eventually.Our D is elite.Shots will fall.
NCAA very probable

 

[fluoxetine]

If we enter the Big Ten Tournament at 19-12 (10-10), we should be able to survive an 0-1 BTT as long as the BTT loss isn't to Nebraska or Northwestern. This would be skin of our teeth stuff though and we would actually need to pay attention to what is going on around us. We could also end up in the first four in that situation.

19-12 + 1-1 should definitely get us in, especially if the 1-1 does not include Nebraska/Northwestern but even if it does we should be okay.

If we hit 20-11 (11-9) or better in the regular season, we are really likely to get in. Basically the worst case 20-12 scenario I can come up with is:
Northwestern loss
Ohio St loss
Illinois loss
Michigan win
Wisconsin win
Penn St loss
Maryland win
Purdue win
--- (BTT)
Nebraska loss

Even with that, we should have like a 2/3 chance of a bid and that other ways of getting to 20-12 that don't involve 2 terrible losses will be better.

Trying to come up with a scenario in which we get 20 wins (including Caldwell and including the Big Ten tournament is difficult).

If you plug the following into Torvik's teamcast (20-13 record):
Northwestern loss
Ohio St loss
Illinois loss
Michigan win
Wisconsin win
Penn St loss
Maryland win
Purdue loss
--- (BTT)
Northwestern win
Nebraska loss

it STILL projects us as the last team in with a 44.6% chance of a bid.


If we hit 21-10 (12-8) we are comfortably in no matter what happens in the BTT.

 

[fluoxetine]

I also think that we could get in at 18-13 (9-11) + 2-1 = 20-14 but obviously it would be close and we don't want to be in that position.

 

[216 Row E]

2 wins and we are in the NIT, 3 more and we dance

 

[JavaDunk18]

2 wins- NIT, 3- NCAA play-in, 4- 8/9 seed, 5- 7 seed, etc...
This is based on regular season. BTT performance maybe can improve on this..

 

[TODDB33]

Yea definitely going to a need a run in the tourney. Steal 2 and we’d be squarely on the bubble

We win 3 more league games and as you say win 2 in tourney we are a lock wit 21 wins for ncaa

 

[TODDB33]

Every sports talk show host and prognosticators who put mock ncaa tourney bids say the same thing. The Big is the best BB conference going and will have anywhere from 9 to 12 teams with a chance to go. If we finish mid of conference which is 7/8 range we are in. If we get 3 more wins we finish mid conference ergo we are in

 

[gordel1]

3 wins- 9/10 seed. 4 wins-7/8 seed.

 

[RUfinal4]

not sure how this will affect things but Purdue blew out Iowa last night at home. Splitting with Purdue can hurt our chances. Basically if Rutgers falls 2-3 places it may mean no NCAAs.

it may come down to how the committee ranks the B10 teams against each other. Currently I think it may be as follows:
1 - Maryland (net 10)
2 - Mich St (net 11)
3 - Iowa (may drop after last night) (net 21)
4 - Penn St (net 22)
5 - Illinois (net 31)
6 - Rutgers (net 29)
7 - Purdue (may move up after last night) (net 38)
8 - Indiana (net 49)
9 - Minnesota (net 45)
10 - Michigan (net 34)
11 - Wisconsin (net 30)
12 - Ohio St (net 15)
13 - Nebraska (172)
14 - Northwestern (151)

 

[bac2therac]

They dont look at conferences and pit members against each other

 

[Local Shill]

Hurray another thread full of clueless bubble “analysis”

Exactly. These guys talking in absolutes is ridiculous. A lot depends on whet happens with our opponents and in mid major conference tournaments.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Hurray another thread full of clueless bubble “analysis”

careful of what you wish for!

Kiss threads and clueless bubble analysis threads are actual good things.

 

[wheezer]

NCAA is easy
go 4-4 the rest of the way and win 1st B10 tourney game. a 2nd win in the tourney guarantees us being in

NIT
go 2-6 the rest of the way and 1-1 in the B10 tourney

no post season
go 2-6 rest of the way and lose 1st b10 tourney game

most likely wins in order are
- Northwestern
- Ohio St
- Purdue
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Penn St
- Illinois
- Maryland

I think we take down Illinois, but maybe I’m crazy. I think we get them

 

[JavaDunk18]

4-4 should get us in regardless of BTT

 

[flyrradio]

These 20 and 19 win predictions I don't think are factoring in that it's still 1 less win since Caldwell accounts as really a glorified exhibition in the NCAA evaluation eyes.

20 wins really equals 19 and 19 really equals 18.

 

[fluoxetine]

No, we are definitely factoring that in. Thanks for playing.

 

[RUsince52]

Running out of wiggle room. If we win the games we can win, things fall into place, otherwise we end up hoping. It's a shame to give back what we've earned already. We already squandered a few chances by not being able to finish. Hard to believe we will play differently, but maybe the other team will. We still have a good opportunity to make it work.

 

[bac2therac]

there are multitudes of opportunities

 

[flyrradio]

No, we are definitely factoring that in. Thanks for playing.

Nope I'm still in the game :)

 

[JavaDunk18]

As I mentioned thus team reminds me some of the 1974-75 team..they made a few appearances in the rankings and had a few very close losses on the road. They also had 3 monster wins on the road, at Hawaii, at Syracuse (first visitor to win at Manley in 3 years), and at #17 Lasalle..they got in by winning ECAC qualifier, but probably could have gotten at-large..this team had a golden opportunity to pick up Monster road win ( only remaining would be at Purdue ).. We must beat Illinois and/ or Maryland at home. No road wins, 3 or even 4 home wins plus early BTT exit, committee might just bump us down to Dayton..BTT will also be good showcase for neutral sites, which for the most part what the NCAA is - hope for Cleveland, Albany, Tampa or Spokane.