Prediciton...On March 11, 2018, ...Rutgers makes the NCAA tournament as the 10 seed

[Scarlet Shack]

Just like the football program had to wait 27 years between the 1978 Garden State Bowl and the 2005 Insight bowl

the men's Bball program will have to go 27 years without a NCAA tournament appearance

but that WILL end on March 11, 2018 at a Rutgers makes the NCAA as at at large bid as the 10 seed..

As ironic as it could be that we would be playing Arizona State (our last opponent in the 1991 NCAA tournament and the teams we played on BOTH sides of the Bowl streak in 1978 and 2005)....I am CERTAINLY not going that far to predict that

:)

Let's get it done!

 

[RU-ROCS]

Just like the football program had to wait 27 years between the 1978 Garden State Bowl and the 2005 Insight bowl

the men's Bball program will have to go 27 years without a NCAA tournament appearance

but that WILL end on March 11, 2018 at a Rutgers makes the NCAA as at at large bid as the 10 seed..

As ironic as it could be that we would be playing Arizona State (our last opponent in the 1991 NCAA tournament and the teams we played on BOTH sides of the Bowl streak in 1978 and 2005)....I am CERTAINLY not going that far to predict that

:)

Let's get it done!

If Corey stays for his Jr. year, I could see this happening. I'd love to see it.

 

[knights1212]

That would be nice.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Oh my........
You have temporarily forgot how good this conference is.

Right now according to kenpom (I have no idea how they come up with this stuff) we will be favored in 0 B1G games this year.

I suppose anything is possible, but...

 

[Spare130]

I am insanely optimistic about our new HC and the staff he was able to put together... But one problem with fans is we create unrealistic expectations sometimes. We forget over the course of a long off season just how bad we were. We went 1-17 in the B1G and lost a game by 60 points not too long ago. I would love to see that happen and I do think Pikiell will eventually get us to the tournament, but lets just be realistic for the near future and not forget how god awful this team was under the previous staff. But I definitely expect to see progress this season which would be crucial for the program.

 

[cyrock3]

This is happening guys.

Scarlet Shack is rarely wrong. I think he has a Delorean.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I am insanely optimistic about our new HC and the staff he was able to put together... But one problem with fans is we create unrealistic expectations sometimes. We forget over the course of a long off season just how bad we were. We went 1-17 in the B1G and lost a game by 60 points not too long ago. I would love to see that happen and I do think Pikiell will eventually get us to the tournament, but lets just be realistic for the near future and not forget how god awful this team was under the previous staff. But I definitely expect to see progress this season which would be crucial for the program.

Believe me....I know what we were last year

But while you are what you are at the end of the day...you have to mitigate this year's thought process on what we were last year by the fact that injuires wiped us out last year and ..we just had NO ONE up front and just could not match up.

That was MUCH of the lack of competitiveness above all else...

Remember...this time LAST year I was preaching that we were going to be one of the most inexperienced teams in college basketball...as we had 7 total years of division one basketball experience returning. (that was before Grier late addition) ...I thought we would be a young 11-21 team that would be better this year than last....

Well....if you subscribe to my theory that we were a 11-21 young team that had injuries...then a step up to 16-15 isn't so out of there for this year

And if EVERYONE from a still young 16-15 teams returns the following year...is a 20-11 record heading to MSG playing for at an large big that out of this world???

I know ..the IF word is there a lot...but its not SO OUT THERE as some think it is...

 

[Degaz-RU]

I think this is possible, Shack, but ONLY if Corey stays for his junior year.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

When the winnable stretch of the schedule was upon us Corey was suspended and Freeman was hurt and suspended. The program must be managed for the long term. No short cuts. I'd rather win 10 doing things the right way than short term success that sacrifices the long term. hopefully we can have our cake and eat it to.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Greene

This is partially in my calculation

I think Piekell gets the buy in of the players. big time

What I propose CANNOT happen without it...and I think the we have a coach and staff that can get it

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

...and if they can't I certainly would not hold it against them.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

This is an extremely tall order and I'd think NIT would be the goal in Year 2, IF Corey Sanders wisely stays and develops and looks to be an All Big 10 2nd team type of player. There are so many pieces that need to come together in this first year to have that type of uptick in Year 2.

I love this staff but that is a 20 win type of season in Year 2 of a regime and leaping at least 6 to 7 programs in conference and I am not sure RU can make that type of leap that quickly and I'm as optimistic about where we are going in hoops. I think we would need an immediate starter for the remaining 2017 ship (transfer type of starter). I'm not looking for a quick fix here, just a build that gets us close to .500 this year as a first huge step.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Forget 20 wins....with a weak OOC schedule you are probably looking at 22+. Bac?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Think of a ladder going up steps. This year we are positioning the ladder at an optimal angle on the building

 

[bac2therac]

Oh my........
You have temporarily forgot how good this conference is.

Right now according to kenpom (I have no idea how they come up with this stuff) we will be favored in 0 B1G games this year.

I suppose anything is possible, but...

agree...I love you Shack but there is no basis for a post like this, you can dream I guess but this program has a long way to go. We won 7 games this year and now you have us in the NCAA in two years. As Greene says this is a tough league, our talent level is still behind well just about the entire league. Schools like Penn State and Northwestern have been trying to inch upward for years and right now they have their best chances to move on. None of the power schools at the top are going to fall off either.

 

[dollarbill]

Think of a ladder going up steps. This year we are positioning the ladder at an optimal angle on the building

Hopefully, we can finally find some players who can position the basketball at an optimal angle to fall through the center of the net 40% or more of the time. I'm optimistic. $$$$

 

[bac2therac]

Believe me....I know what we were last year

But while you are what you are at the end of the day...you have to mitigate this year's thought process on what we were last year by the fact that injuires wiped us out last year and ..we just had NO ONE up front and just could not match up.

That was MUCH of the lack of competitiveness above all else...

Remember...this time LAST year I was preaching that we were going to be one of the most inexperienced teams in college basketball...as we had 7 total years of division one basketball experience returning. (that was before Grier late addition) ...I thought we would be a young 11-21 team that would be better this year than last....

Well....if you subscribe to my theory that we were a 11-21 young team that had injuries...then a step up to 16-15 isn't so out of there for this year

And if EVERYONE from a still young 16-15 teams returns the following year...is a 20-11 record heading to MSG playing for at an large big that out of this world???

I know ..the IF word is there a lot...but its not SO OUT THERE as some think it is...

compare our talent to the rest of the league, its still in the bottom 4. Minnesota and Penn State landed top classes last year.

The program first has to learn how to win games. They won 7 last year, you have them pegged for 16 which is well IMO insanely optimistic. Pikiell is a good coach but lets be real here, he wasnt exactly widely sought after, its not like we hired a hot rising coaching star. He is a steady guy who will finally give us a chance to compete but he isnt the type where he instantly can turn around a program in two years

This program has lost like 40 of its last 47 games, its going to be a tough slog up the Big 10 charts

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Bac

I do hear you loud and clear

I saw a lot more INDIVIDUAL basketball talent on the floor in sanders, Laurent, Freeman and Williams that didn't project to the W-L for all the reasons that have been talked about

I think we added two really good pieces this year in thiam and Johnson

I see 6 pretty good individual talent players...3 at the guard sport and 3 at the forward ...

We have a much better coaching staff to take that indicidual talent and make it translate on the team level ..and that is where the wins will or won't come from

Plus ...I think we have a special player brewing in Corey sanders. One that can elevate everyone around him

I completely believe the "show me" -attitude ....but I see the pieces . I compare the individual pieces to some of our better teams since joining the big east thar got close to the NCAA and I like how they compare to the this teams individual

Upto coach P and staff to make it work on the team level

 

[RU-ROCS]

This is an extremely tall order and I'd think NIT would be the goal in Year 2, IF Corey Sanders wisely stays and develops and looks to be an All Big 10 2nd team type of player. There are so many pieces that need to come together in this first year to have that type of uptick in Year 2.

I love this staff but that is a 20 win type of season in Year 2 of a regime and leaping at least 6 to 7 programs in conference and I am not sure RU can make that type of leap that quickly and I'm as optimistic about where we are going in hoops. I think we would need an immediate starter for the remaining 2017 ship (transfer type of starter). I'm not looking for a quick fix here, just a build that gets us close to .500 this year as a first huge step.

Hawk, you're view is much more realistic, but we need a visionary like Shack after so many years of suffering. ;). PLEASE, let him be right!

 

[seels2662]

In order to go in as a 10 seed:

1)we really need to be undefeated in non conference play. That includes @Miami, @ Depaul, @SHU. The rest of the games we will be favored in, in many cases heavy favorites. That is tough, but not impossible. 13 wins right there.

2)These home conference games are must wins: PSU, Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois. All teams that are about equal or in some cases a little worse than us. But we have to hold our home court if we are a 10 seed. 18 wins on the table.

3)We have to sweep PSU and Northwestern in our home and homes. These are teams if we are 10 seed worthy are in our rear view mirror. 20 wins.

3)I have mentioned this in the past, we ALWAYS had big upsets at home pre Jordan and even with Jordan we beat a top 5 Wisconsin team and a 21 win Vanderbilt team. In our big NIT season I think we had multiple big upsets. The RAC is just special for us when we are good. Here are the candidates: Iowa, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin. You want to be a 10 seed? We need two big upsets out of these 4. These wins actually a must over any of the others, since one of the metrics to get in are top 50 wins. 22 wins, and a 9-9 conference record.

4)There are 2 games away, @Purdue (which won't be as good as last year) and at @Iowa (they were ok last year after a very hot start), that are not impossible to win but you can't count on. I will keep them as insurance if we slip up somewhere. I would be shocked if we win any of the other away games.

5)You would probably have to win 2 in the B1G tournament, with our seed we will be playing two teams that would not be impossible. 24 wins.

I would imagine at least 22 wins would put us in as a 10 seed, which is the last team in. So we are "allowed" two slipups plus the other two on #4. Tall order. My opinion is we get close (I am predicting 19 wins) and get to the NIT. But I am with Shack here, this team is much much better than anyone can imagine.

 

[Rutgers25]

Is there any reason to believe Corey stays? He flirted with leaving this year. Would be surprised if he says for a 3rd even it means playing in the D league....

 

[knights1212]

Seels, The topic above talks about 2018 but you are writing about this year's schedule. I seriously doubt we have any chance of making the dance this season. Were you just thinking like we would have the same schedule for next year? I would love to see this happen but I think the NIT is a big success if we could even make that next year (2018). At my age I really want to see us in the Big Dance at least one more time and I hope it can come soon but I think it might take a few years yet. I hope we can win the games we will be favored this year and pull off surprises in several others. If we can win 15 or 16 games that would be an amazing improvement.

 

[seels2662]

Seels, The topic above talks about 2018 but you are writing about this year's schedule. I seriously doubt we have any chance of making the dance this season. Were you just thinking like we would have the same schedule for next year? I would love to see this happen but I think the NIT is a big success if we could even make that next year (2018). At my age I really want to see us in the Big Dance at least one more time and I hope it can come soon but I think it might take a few years yet. I hope we can win the games we will be favored this year and pull off surprises in several others. If we can win 15 or 16 games that would be an amazing improvement.

Never noticed that it was for next year. All that work for nothing :angry:

 

[CranfordKnight]

C'mon, this is Rutgers. It would be an 11 seed and the play in game.

 

[knights1212]

Seels, I like that reply. I really wish your outlook becomes reality. That would be the story of the year in college basketball and you would become the great prognosticator.

 

[seels2662]

Seels, I like that reply. I really wish your outlook becomes reality. That would be the story of the year in college basketball and you would become the great prognosticator.

Thanks, I really do think this team is north of .500 this year and has a shot at the NIT.

Shack, sorry didn't notice that you meant next year. Although I agree with what you say, I'm not sure Sanders stays after this year and you know without Sanders we have no shot at the tournament.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

4 things that all must occur to significantly overacheive....I think the base case is 11 wins.

1. We stay healthy
2. Sanders buys in
3. Thaim is a scorer as a FR and defends (I have VERY serious doubts he makes the impact people expect)
4. Freeman defends and rebounds and is effective offensively in B1G play (all 3 of these are ?s)

I am going to assume we can get 25 servicable minutes at the 5 from some of our big guys. I am going to assume Laurent improves and gets 20-25 minutes and plays with toughness and shows he can knock down perimeter shots. Although i have never seen Johnson play I am going to assume we get a good 27-30 minutes of him playing 2 and backing up the 1. I am also assuming Williams gives us gritty minutes and is a slightly improved shooter.

the 4 things above I truly have no idea AND they are the difference between 10 to 16 wins. #3 concerns me the most followed by #2

 

[coachkos]

My guess is we win 17 games this year. Shock of the big 10

 

[higgins3]

My guess is we win 17 games this year. Shock of the big 10

I do not think we will be #14. I think we will be 11-12.

 

[higgins3]

4 things that all must occur to significantly overacheive....I think the base case is 11 wins.

1. We stay healthy
2. Sanders buys in
3. Thaim is a scorer as a FR and defends (I have VERY serious doubts he makes the impact people expect)
4. Freeman defends and rebounds and is effective offensively in B1G play (all 3 of these are ?s)

I am going to assume we can get 25 servicable minutes at the 5 from some of our big guys. I am going to assume Laurent improves and gets 20-25 minutes and plays with toughness and shows he can knock down perimeter shots. Although i have never seen Johnson play I am going to assume we get a good 27-30 minutes of him playing 2 and backing up the 1. I am also assuming Williams gives us gritty minutes and is a slightly improved shooter.

the 4 things above I truly have no idea AND they are the difference between 10 to 16 wins. #3 concerns me the most followed by #2

It seems like Sanders is one to buy in from what he is "saying". If the coach sets up the run properly, and the players are heady, they can have more success. It has to be a balance.

I think 2 will go well. I think Thiam has a chance to score 7-10 points this year if Johnson and Sanders are selfless. They can get him his space, even if his shot is not automatic. His form is impressive. What are your doubts about him?

I think Freeman rebounds, but is a 7/10 player defensively. Without knocking Jack, Jack was not that aware defensively. Freeman shows me something else, shows me a little bit more focus on what is developing defensively. Help defense is overrated in my opinion. Everyone must do their individual job. Help defense is very overrated against great shooting teams. Offensively, when Freeman was healthy, him and Sanders had a very nice connection. Freeman has great hands IMO.

Lots of ifs. Just like 60% of schools around the country right now. If.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It seems like Sanders is one to buy in from what he is "saying". If the coach sets up the run properly, and the players are heady, they can have more success. It has to be a balance.

I think 2 will go well. I think Thiam has a chance to score 7-10 points this year if Johnson and Sanders are selfless. They can get him his space, even if his shot is not automatic. His form is impressive. What are your doubts about him?

I think Freeman rebounds, but is a 7/10 player defensively. Without knocking Jack, Jack was not that aware defensively. Freeman shows me something else, shows me a little bit more focus on what is developing defensively. Help defense is overrated in my opinion. Everyone must do their individual job. Help defense is very overrated against great shooting teams. Offensively, when Freeman was healthy, him and Sanders had a very nice connection. Freeman has great hands IMO.

Lots of ifs. Just like 60% of schools around the country right now. If.

:uzi:

 

[higgins3]

If everyone buys into defense from an individual, I wont be beaten standpoint, you have less people bailing each other out. To say defense has to be group minded, that makes kids less accountable. Just my opinion, which is unorthodox to most.

 

[Rutgers25]

It seems like Sanders is one to buy in from what he is "saying". If the coach sets up the run properly, and the players are heady, they can have more success. It has to be a balance.

I think 2 will go well. I think Thiam has a chance to score 7-10 points this year if Johnson and Sanders are selfless. They can get him his space, even if his shot is not automatic. His form is impressive. What are your doubts about him?

I think Freeman rebounds, but is a 7/10 player defensively. Without knocking Jack, Jack was not that aware defensively. Freeman shows me something else, shows me a little bit more focus on what is developing defensively. Help defense is overrated in my opinion. Everyone must do their individual job. Help defense is very overrated against great shooting teams. Offensively, when Freeman was healthy, him and Sanders had a very nice connection. Freeman has great hands IMO.

Lots of ifs. Just like 60% of schools around the country right now. If.

Help defense is overrated? Having trouble wrapping my head around that one...

 

[KnightTerrors]

At this time last year I was told by someone who is VERY involved with the program that Justin Goode was the best shooter Rutgers has had since Bobby Lloyd.

I am very optimistic for this year as I always am before every season, but let's see these kids play together before we pencil them in for the tourney.

 

[higgins3]

Help defense is overrated? Having trouble wrapping my head around that one...

Lol. I am not unorthodox for the sake of being it. Against great shooting teams, why would you use help defense against a 3 pt shooter who shoots 45% from beyond the 3?Wouldnt you want that player to stay with that shooter, so when the drive is initiated, the kick is less effective to the good shooter?if you help your team mate, you leave the deadly 3 pt shooter open. If you stay with him, you do not, and you force your team mate to be more accountable for his defense. Plus, it shows who is really giving effort to be a defensive player when the player misses his man, and no one bails him out. As a coach- hey, take Jon out. he just lost his man 4-5 last defensive possessions.

It's a matter of personal accountability. When you as a player keep seeing you get beat, eventually you will play better. You will give more effort.

Help defense against great shooting teams is just not that much of a debate with the current trend of the 3 pt shot.

Against regular shooting teams, I could see why you would say "No help defense, that is crazy."

Truth is though, you just keep bailing your team mate out, and he might keep doing the same thing if he knows someone is going to help him out. No accountability of individual actions.

You have a great defense team by everyone buying into defense from an individual standpoint. Help defense is more confusing for players these days. Especially when not every player out there is a heady,high IQ, highly aware player.

Unorthodox, but let's have the conversation. I am willing to change my view.

 

[higgins3]

At this time last year I was told by someone who is VERY involved with the program that Justin Goode was the best shooter Rutgers has had since Bobby Lloyd.

I am very optimistic for this year as I always am before every season, but let's see these kids play together before we pencil them in for the tourney.

Lol, best shooter unguarded or guarded?Practice, game?Lights on versus the lights off?It is all so different. So many variables. I use to be able to hit 7-10 unguarded, set shot three pointers. I would never have sniffed a D1 court. Even if your nostrils were clear.

 

[Degaz-RU]

I don't think Shack's proposition is that far-fetched. THIS YEAR, I think we will make significant progress, and then if Sanders stays, we will have our entire team back next year. Why do I think we will make progress this year?

Well, last year, for most of the B1G schedule, we were without three of our top four big men (Freeman, Doorson, and Diallo), and Lewis was basically playing on one leg. In short, we literally had no front court, and we had guards and small forwards playing the 4 and 5 spots. Mind you, we were a bad team even if those three guys were all healthy, but I highly doubt we would have lost as many games, nor would we have suffered as many blowouts. Thus, our "7 win" season is not really an accurate measure of what our record could have been last year without the injuries. In other words, maybe we would have won 11 games, and going from 11 wins to 16 wins in a single year (this year) is not as daunting as going from 7 to 16 wins. I think we can get to 16 wins this year because:

1. We have a real coach, who will teach actual defense and rebounding, and knows how to run a college basketball program. This cannot be underestimated.

2. Sanders is one year older and one year wiser, and is a star in the making at the most important position (PG) in college.

3. Johnson for Daniels is a HUGE upgrade at SG/backup PG. HUUUUUUUGE.

4. We have legit big men -- A rotation at the 4/5 spots of Freeman, Sa, Doorson, Gettys, and Diallo has good potential in all three facets of the game (scoring, rebounding, defense).

5. With legit big men, guys like Laurent and Thiam won't be forced to play the 4 or 5 spots just because they're taller than 6-3 (as happened last year). Both players have serious potential at the 3 spot.

I know we're all leery of making big predictions about our downtrodden basketball team, but even taking off the scarlet colored glasses, you have to see that this team has the potential to be MARKEDLY better than last year's team. There's talent here now, and a really good coach. Sixteen wins this year is not out of the realm of possibility, especially with the weak OOC schedule.

 

[higgins3]

I don't think Shack's proposition is that far-fetched. THIS YEAR, I think we will make significant progress, and then if Sanders stays, we will have our entire team back next year. Why do I think we will make progress this year?

Well, last year, for most of the B1G schedule, we were without three of our top four big men (Freeman, Doorson, and Diallo), and Lewis was basically playing on one leg. In short, we literally had no front court, and we had guards and small forwards playing the 4 and 5 spots. Mind you, we were a bad team even if those three guys were all healthy, but I highly doubt we would have lost as many games, nor would we have suffered as many blowouts. Thus, our "7 win" season is not really an accurate measure of what our record could have been last year without the injuries. In other words, maybe we would have won 11 games, and going from 11 wins to 16 wins in a single year (this year) is not as daunting as going from 7 to 16 wins. I think we can get to 16 wins this year because:

1. We have a real coach, who will teach actual defense and rebounding, and knows how to run a college basketball program. This cannot be underestimated.

2. Sanders is one year older and one year wiser, and is a star in the making at the most important position (PG) in college.

3. Johnson for Daniels is a HUGE upgrade at SG/backup PG. HUUUUUUUGE.

4. We have legit big men -- A rotation at the 4/5 spots of Freeman, Sa, Doorson, Gettys, and Diallo has good potential in all three facets of the game (scoring, rebounding, defense).

5. With legit big men, guys like Laurent and Thiam won't be forced to play the 4 or 5 spots just because they're taller than 6-3 (as happened last year). Both players have serious potential at the 3 spot.

I know we're all leery of making big predictions about our downtrodden basketball team, but even taking off the scarlet colored glasses, you have to see that this team has the potential to be MARKEDLY better than last year's team. There's talent here now, and a really good coach. Sixteen wins this year is not out of the realm of possibility, especially with the weak OOC schedule.

The enthusiasm is awesome. Diallo is unproven, Freeman has to be very well managed(and probably is), Gettys and Shaq will split time most likely, and Sa I think will be a surprise at times. I still hesitate to call our big men "legit" as height can be made up with will. We do have some players who can step on the court, and give their best.

I cant wait to see the first game. I am very excited to see what the team has.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I understand EVERYONE's skepticsm...

Having said that...I really think the INDIVUDAL skill level that is here is much better than people give credit

Up to the new staff to get guys to mesh together as a TEAM ..on the floor...to get the indivual talent to mesh as a unit

We shall see...you know what I think for now....got to see on the court

 

[bac2therac]

I understand EVERYONE's skepticsm...

Having said that...I really think the INDIVUDAL skill level that is here is much better than people give credit

Up to the new staff to get guys to mesh together as a TEAM ..on the floor...to get the indivual talent to mesh as a unit

We shall see...you know what I think for now....got to see on the court

the concern I have is how does that compare to the rest of the league, its a big issue when its hard to move up and some of the bottom schools have brought in very good classes. Overall our talent level still lags even with the upgrade