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Question Marks

zebnatto

All Conference
May 7, 2008
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Mine:

1) Will the interior hold up against quality opponents?
2) Can we shoot 33%+ from three?
3) Will PM be ready to contribute significantly in B1G play?

Yours?
 
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1) Will we set the pace in all matchups?
2) Will our defense and rebounding keep us in each game, enough for our offense to win it?
3) Will we score at least 70 points in most games?
4) Will we shoot 70% on FTs in most games?
 
Few things.....
N=2 (poster didn't copyright analysis so I stole it) sample size is SMALL
Too early to come to any conclusions so these are mere observations.

Pre season Issue 1
USAGE and eff FG% (again N=2)
Baker 20.7% -------- 56.8%
Yeboah 23.4%-------- 56.7%
Caleb 13.9%-----------50.0%
Harper 22.0%----------
46.9%
Mathis 22.1%-----------40.5%

Harper has taken on more of the load and numbers so far has slipped. Caleb has not increased load. Baker has been more effective in a decreased load. Yeboah has taken on an over 1/5 load and is at 23.4%.

This is something I am watching

Pre season Issue 2
Small are Large
Looking at only game 1 since game 2 had garbage time.
Myles PLUS Shaq PLUS Duke = 38 minues
Not only did we not play 2 bigs, but we had a few minutes with no bigs.
Definitely keep an eye on this one.

Pre Season Issue 3
POINT GUARD
So far I have been right and Baker is the PG and it looks like Mulcahy is more than capable as a back up. This is so important when you compare this year to last. Really important.

Some of my other concerns I can't speak to because I was away this weekend and intended to watch the games without knowing the results and failed. I am going just off the box score.

When N=11 we will be able to know and say more with confidence

 
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1. Will the stuff we're running against Bryant and Niagara translate against Big Ten defenses? We're going to find it a lot tougher to score in transition when the competition gets tougher.

2. Which Jacob Young shows up more often, game 1 version or game 2 version?

3. Shaq Carter's rebounding... no offensive boards in two games.

4. Does Geo stay at 28-32 minutes or does Pikiell push him near 35?
 
If Geo and Caleb shoot like they did yesterday and the middle opens; Johnson and Shaq have to be ready. I don't know what Doucoure can do but maybe he just gives us a body out there to spell the other two guys.
 
1. Will the stuff we're running against Bryant and Niagara translate against Big Ten defenses? We're going to find it a lot tougher to score in transition when the competition gets tougher.

2. Which Jacob Young shows up more often, game 1 version or game 2 version?

3. Shaq Carter's rebounding... no offensive boards in two games.

4. Does Geo stay at 28-32 minutes or does Pikiell push him near 35?

I was out of town so missed the games....

I am guessing question 1 and 2 have a lot to do with us facing a lot of zone. Not sure how much zone we faced in G2, but am guessing a lot based on comments here and tempo #s.

We have a full year of data last year on Shaq's rebounding so I am confident he isn't Dennis Rodman and not Bill Cartwright.

The Geo question is very interesting. His minute numbers will tell us a lot. We should be very concerned if they stay in the mid to high 30s consistently.......unless he shoots like he did yestrday
 
I'd like Geo's average mpg to be around 30. He is our leader and probably our best player, and he needs to be out there. Just not for 34 minutes per game.

Can we shoot 35% from 3-pt range for the year? I don't know if 33% is enough improvement to move the needle, but going from 31 to 35% might be enough, especially if we get more offense in transition.

The big issue for me is interior defense and defensive rebounding.
 
Few things.....
N=2 (poster didn't copyright analysis so I stole it) sample size is SMALL
Too early to come to any conclusions so these are mere observations.

Pre season Issue 1
USAGE and eff FG% (again N=2)
Baker 20.7% -------- 56.8%
Yeboah 23.4%-------- 56.7%
Caleb 13.9%-----------50.0%
Harper 22.0%----------
46.9%
Mathis 22.1%-----------40.5%

Harper has taken on more of the load and numbers so far has slipped. Caleb has not increased load. Baker has been more effective in a decreased load. Yeboah has taken on an over 1/5 load and is at 23.4%.

This is something I am watching

Pre season Issue 2
Small are Large
Looking at only game 1 since game 2 had garbage time.
Myles PLUS Shaq PLUS Duke = 38 minues
Not only did we not play 2 bigs, but we had a few minutes with no bigs.
Definitely keep an eye on this one.

Pre Season Issue 3
POINT GUARD
So far I have been right and Baker is the PG and it looks like Mulcahy is more than capable as a back up. This is so important when you compare this year to last. Really important.

Some of my other concerns I can't speak to because I was away this weekend and intended to watch the games without knowing the results and failed. I am going just off the box score.

When N=11 we will be able to know and say more with confidence

Interesting, but as you suggest crunching the numbers just 2 games into the season against weak OOC opponents is pretty meaningless. For example, if you used the stats of just the first game instead of the 1st 2 games, Geo and Harper (with their FG% of 30) would be sitting the bench. Pike is still figuring out rotations and the players are still determining their roles. Check back in 10 games or so when there is enough data to be relevant.
 
I think we can just go game to game with the first 8 OOC. Hard to really evaluate much with the level of these teams and our own questions with our own team.
One great game is not anymore of a pattern than our near disaster meltdown in the first game.
Hopefully, we will become a middle of the pack BIG program this year and play post season somewhere.
 
no doubt the confidence level is a low number.....just wanted to show what I am looking at. These are observations and far from conclusions.

I said preseason one of my concerns is how will Caleb and Ron's efficiency numbers hold up with an increase in usage.....making assumption that there would bean increase in usage.....alternatively how much would Geo increase with a decrease in usage.
 
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