Okay - but my example still holds. Ron and Geo attempted the most 3s on that 2020-21 team by far. They were 31% and 30.3% respectively from downtown. Those aren’t exactly world beater perimeter shooting numbers. JY was really only one who shot well that season from deep. Paul shot a high percentage on low volume (he made 22 3s).
We will be better on offense next year, an obvious GIVEN...how? and by how much? looking at data
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Okay - but my example still holds. Ron and Geo attempted the most 3s on that 2020-21 team by far. They were 31% and 30.3% respectively from downtown. Those aren’t exactly world beater perimeter shooting numbers. JY was really only one who shot well that season from deep. Paul shot a high percentage on low volume (he made 22 3s).
That team also finished #42 overall which isn't going to make the tournament most years. It was 94th on offense
37-40th best resume on the S curve but that’s splitting hairs…
Your actually kind of reinforcing my point though. 94th best offense was good enough to be 42nd best. As long as the defense holds strong, we likely wouldn’t need a top 50 offense to place 30th unless Ace and Dylan turn out to be disappointments in other areas of projected strength. I feel pretty confident that those two will be JY / Tez on steroids in the transition game with high efficiency. The question is whether or not we can cause the turnovers we need to facilitate similar volume of opportunities.
The points made need more depth.
For instance- regarding shooting percentage. Let's say a player shoots 33% from beyond the arc but when broken down shoots over 40% from the corner/open and somewhere in the 20% range on pull ups or the high arc. That player may be much more valuable when you take the ball out of his hands and let him rotate outside for open looks on drive and kickouts. Another example would be a player shooting in the % rhythm of the offense vs. a higher usage player having to heave it up in a desperation shot. I'm not sure where to find such college advanced stats but would be useful to know since everyone here seems to be making assumptions based on "Level 1" type stats. My overall point is that based on projected talent level, Ace and Dylan even in ISO sets will put more pressure on the opposition defense than we've seen in a while at RU. This theoretically will take the offensive pressure off of teammates and create more open looks than many of their teammates may have ever seen prior. Difficult to project & measure that based on player performance from different environments and roles.
Regarding your Scarlet Letter comment. Which player(s) are you referring to and who was the alternative player options? That matters.
When did we have the 94th best offense? I don't recall this team being in the top 150.
It's likely that Ron his senior year will put up better, or at least much more efficient numbers than Ace will this year. I wouldn't be banking on high efficiency from freshman. If we get it, it will be nice, but I don't expect it.
One of the biggest changes will be Dylan and face getting us easy buckets in transition. Lack of these easy points has been a major problem for Rutgers for years now. Both also should be able to finish at the rim which has been another massive problem. Dylan is so crafty and absorbs contact to finish while Ace will just be using his length and athleticism. We should also see more trips to the foul line than we have in recent years
Don't have stats on that but you are definitely on to something. In transition & breaks we seem to struggle finishing even to the point of causing negative point swings.
Yeah, I mentioned Harper's senior year when he went 53% eFG and 57% true shooting.
What metric you have them at 94 that year? I see 235 in pts per, 201 in offensive rating
Correct. A good defense doesn’t leave a playmaker and distributor wide open PERIOD.
This garbage that defenses will sag into the lane when JWill is on the perimeter is simple Simon 3rd grade hoops crap.
I was looking at Kenpom - we were 82 there. I took Green’s word for it about 94. I’m not sure what system he used but it was in the same ball park.
Regarding Ron, the metrics your referencing are misleading in a sense because they disregard the impact of defense on offense which is hugely correlated for a D first team like Rutgers. Last year was a major aberration to this as our transition game was history below average. We missed many fast break opportunities that would have been near automatic on many other teams. When you make a high volume of those types of shots your net efficiency is much higher overall (even when SOS adjusted). That’s what I’ve been trying to explain. Acuff making a high volume of uncontested fast break layups (often in garbage time) boosts his overall efficiency, but does little from a predictive standpoint in terms of predicting how efficient he may or may not be within the dynamics of a BIG game where he’s, at best, the 3rd option on offense.
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Not sure how Ron's #'s are misleading, but whatever.
In that scenario, with all the adjustments, team was 83 in offense, 16 in defense, and, what, 16-12 that year?
Of course making your layups boosts efficiency. And as I've been saying, J Willvis already borderline great at the rim and mid range and he's still well below average in efficiency. To me, it's more likely Acuff if more about the player from two years ago with talent around him, than it is that J Will suddenly decides to incorporate the 3 often enough to become more valuable.
Either way, this whole conversation is what's great about this year, so many possibilities.
I’m simply saying that Ron scored a lot of easy transition points off of opportunities created by the defense. On a team that doesn’t create as many of those types of opportunities, there’s less volume of those high percentage shots. It’s not a knock on Ron at all - what I meant by misleading is that if you replace JY, Tez and Caleb on that roster with guys like Acuff, Noah Fernandez and Hayes - Ron likely gets a lot less of those transition opportunities which would bring down his overall efficiency.
In other words, how efficient you are on offense is partly driven by what your defense does - and when transition play is a relative strength that correlation increases. Thats why I’m hypothesizing that D is going to be more important that folks think. Dylan and Ace may be stars but they are still frosh and all else equal, it’s much easier to shine on raw talent through the transition game than to consistently beat team D in half court sets.
How would you be defending Ace and/or Dylan when they have the ball?
If JWill is standing on the opposite side corner or wing, you wouldn’t have his man cheat into the lane?
If the ball swings around, you consider that a win since he's historically been a bad 3pt shooter. Tell the defense dont close out and let him shoot.
Now imagine it's a historically very good 3pt shooter like Hayes (some have said or Acuff but others say that's not true).
You can't have that man cheat in and not worry about a close out.
That generates space for Ace/Dylan by holding defenders accountable further out to the 3pt line.
Obviously you don't leave JWill open when he hasthe ball already.
But he (potentially) won't.
He'll likely be the 3rd or 4th option on offense.
If that 3rd or 4th option is on the perimeter and not a good shooter then the defense can hedge more towards options 1 and 2.
This isn't last year where it's "we don't need to throw extra defenders at Simpson or Davis or Hyatt. We can keep a man close to JWill because he's the top threat if he gets the ball."
But he (potentially) won't.
He'll likely be the 3rd or 4th option on offense.
If that 3rd or 4th option is on the perimeter and not a good shooter then the defense can hedge more towards options 1 and 2.
This isn't last year where it's "we don't need to throw extra defenders at Simpson or Davis or Hyatt. We can keep a man close to JWill because he's the top threat if he gets the ball."
I'm very late to the party and only read the OP. I don't think we can put a number on it based on individual effort. Sure we will score more but there's only 1 ball and 40 minutes so not everyone is going to average what they can average. It's how well they play together and of course how well they knock down open shots if they do play well together.
The bottom line is we will score more because we have more scorers. We will look to push the pace and build leads and maintain leads. I suspect there will be very few games where we look to scratch and claw for a low scoring win but teams like SHU may force that to happen.
The bottom line is we will score more because we have more scorers. We will look to push the pace and build leads and maintain leads. I suspect there will be very few games where we look to scratch and claw for a low scoring win but teams like SHU may force that to happen.
If I am Pike, as much as possible, I want a good 3 point shooter weak side corner.
I would have my best guard and wing defender covering Ace and Dylan.
If I am the opposing HC, if JWill is on the perimeter and either has the ball, or is one pass away, he would be covered. 99% of the time the defender will have a foot in the paint if they have a weak side perimeter player that is two passes away.
What type of defense? Man, 3-2, match-up zone etc? If a guy cheats too much in a zone, it can break down the entire defensive scheme and becomes susceptible to back-door cuts etc at the rim.
In a straight man or match-up zone, is the assumption that everyone on D is a strong defender and that JWill is just a spot up statue? If the 2 best defenders are on Ace and Dylan it may mean that a first pass to JWill even on the wing becomes a potential to break down his man by attacking the rim or even drawing interior defenders for a dish off to another slashing teammate.
Ron was in the top 90% percentile in % of shots at the rim, and above the break 3's. Not sure much of his rim was in transition, as that really wasn't his game. I recall more post up, but don't care to look it up. Everyone's efficiency will slightly be dictated by those around, I agree. Ron showed a consistent progression of improvement through his career. I just don't think you're going to see that efficiency from Ace this year. He will be more a volume scorer. I'd expect Dylan to be the more efficient of the two, if he shoots decently from 3.
I'm 100% taking that JWill drive into traffic over Ace/Dylan and over that ball landing in a 40% 3pt shooter for an open 3.
My dream scenario (as the defende) is JWill choosing between an open 3 or driving into traffic.
And I say traffic because I'm not closing over strong and begging JWill to shoot it.
Maybe I'm just overestimating how sophisticated college defenses are.
