At this point, we're a "safety school".
The early commits that we get from the high-level kids are only as good as their next, better offer. Then they're gone.
When it happened to Fludd, folks blamed his inability to close. Now that it's happening to Ash, people can blame "new staff, new system".
The reality is that the "blame", such as it is, falls squarely on our reputation for lack of success. We are not OSU, we're not MSU, we're not LSU, we're not Michigan or Wisconsin.
Until we manage to demonstrate a consistent ability to play with those teams, to beat them almost as often as not, the landscape of recruiting won't change in any appreciable way and we'll be having these same "commit/decommit" anxieties every year.
NSD is in February. The season is from September to December. That leaves just a tick over 7 months out of the year that would be better spent drinking.
While what you are saying is 100% true don't dismiss the fact that Flood pushed a lot of these kids to commit early. That rubbed some of these kids the wrong way because like you said we are RU. While I think stories of Greg's recruiting prowess are certainly overblown, one thing I will give him is he had supreme confidence in himself to close kids at the 11th hour. That's why we saw some signing day surprises. This staff will have to do the same thing here in year 0. In 2017 when Ash and Co. Actually have had time to build relationships and sell RU then we can be hypercritical.