Opening line is Rutgers -3. Let's hope we can finally beat them. Have not beaten them since the final 4 year.
Best of Luck,
Groz
Best of Luck,
Groz
RU -3 vs. Purdue
- Thread starter Groz
- Start date
My ESPN app said earlier we were -2.5. It is now -3.5. I’m bad at predicting these or looking at stats to figure it out, but that seems reasonable.
Just a hunch.....last year we had a 3 game slide in the middle of the season where our defense was not the same which came after a 3 game winning streak where our D was great....
TIME CAPSULE
Monday Jan 21 RU over Neb at home 76-69 adj D 90.5
Sat Jan 26 RU over PSU on road 64-60 adj D 81.4
Wed Jan 30 RU over IU at home 66-58 adj D 84.3
Sat Feb 2 OSU over RU on road 62-76 adj D 119.9
Tues Feb 5 UM over RU at home 65-77 adj D 108.8
Sat Feb 9 Ill over RU on road 94-99 adj D 106.5
I am thinking we have 1 more dud game in us defensively and unless we are phenomenal offensively we lose.
We then get a few days off and blow the doors off of Michigan at MSU and the team we know and love is back.
TIME CAPSULE
Monday Jan 21 RU over Neb at home 76-69 adj D 90.5
Sat Jan 26 RU over PSU on road 64-60 adj D 81.4
Wed Jan 30 RU over IU at home 66-58 adj D 84.3
Sat Feb 2 OSU over RU on road 62-76 adj D 119.9
Tues Feb 5 UM over RU at home 65-77 adj D 108.8
Sat Feb 9 Ill over RU on road 94-99 adj D 106.5
I am thinking we have 1 more dud game in us defensively and unless we are phenomenal offensively we lose.
We then get a few days off and blow the doors off of Michigan at MSU and the team we know and love is back.
Counterpoint, we've already had three consecutive "off" defensive games:
Minnesota 91.9
Iowa 101.2
Nebraska 97.2
after
Penn St 82.8
Illinois 74.9
Indiana 67.5
Minnesota 91.9
Iowa 101.2
Nebraska 97.2
after
Penn St 82.8
Illinois 74.9
Indiana 67.5
I did kind of noticed that. After the Minnesota game I was stunned to see the numbers because the effort and defensive execution I saw vs. Minny didn't match what the data said. I thought 55 possessions was a misprint until I looked at the box score and saw that in fact there were only 55.
An arguement you can poke holes out, but take away the 2 3s in the end by Carr and you get 50 points on 53 possesssions.
Still giving up 56 pts vs. Minny in 55 possessions can't be called a bad effort.
An arguement you can poke holes out, but take away the 2 3s in the end by Carr and you get 50 points on 53 possesssions.
Still giving up 56 pts vs. Minny in 55 possessions can't be called a bad effort.
Counterpoint #2, the Iowa game cannot be considered part of a swoon. In terms of AdjO - AdjD it was above our average.
Agree, it's only above our avg because our avg is so good. 91.9 would be #21 or #22 in defense.
Before the Nebraska game, the last time we played worse than average on both offense and defense was 12/8 against Michigan St.
The last time we've been above average in both was 12/14 vs Seton Hall.
In games where we were above avg on both, we are 2-0 (Niagara, Seton Hall)
In games where we were below avg on both, we are 2-2 (Drexel, @Pittsburgh, @Michigan St, Nebraska)
In games where we were above on offense, but below on defense, we are 4-2 (vs St Bonaventure, NJIT, Wisconsin, @Nebraska, Minnesota, @Iowa)
In games where we were below on offense, but above on defense, we are 6-1 (Bryant, Stephen F. Austin, Massachusetts, Lafayette, Penn St, @Illinois, Indiana)
In terms of AdjO - AdjD, Nebraska (+6.5) was the worst we've played since @Pittsburgh (-4). Earlier in the season, we had 3 other worse games (St Bonaventure (-11.7), Drexel (1.4), Bryant (3.3)).
Purdue's AdjO - AdjD = +18.7
In our 19 D1 games, we've performed better than that 11 times (Niagara, Stephen F. Austin, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Lafayette, @Nebraska, Penn St, Indiana, @Iowa) and worse 8 times (Bryant, Drexel, vs St. Bonaventure, NJIT, @Pittsburgh, @Michigan St., @Illinois, Nebraska).
The last time we've been above average in both was 12/14 vs Seton Hall.
In games where we were above avg on both, we are 2-0 (Niagara, Seton Hall)
In games where we were below avg on both, we are 2-2 (Drexel, @Pittsburgh, @Michigan St, Nebraska)
In games where we were above on offense, but below on defense, we are 4-2 (vs St Bonaventure, NJIT, Wisconsin, @Nebraska, Minnesota, @Iowa)
In games where we were below on offense, but above on defense, we are 6-1 (Bryant, Stephen F. Austin, Massachusetts, Lafayette, Penn St, @Illinois, Indiana)
In terms of AdjO - AdjD, Nebraska (+6.5) was the worst we've played since @Pittsburgh (-4). Earlier in the season, we had 3 other worse games (St Bonaventure (-11.7), Drexel (1.4), Bryant (3.3)).
Purdue's AdjO - AdjD = +18.7
In our 19 D1 games, we've performed better than that 11 times (Niagara, Stephen F. Austin, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Lafayette, @Nebraska, Penn St, Indiana, @Iowa) and worse 8 times (Bryant, Drexel, vs St. Bonaventure, NJIT, @Pittsburgh, @Michigan St., @Illinois, Nebraska).
I think the reason the Minny game had so few possessions was that we got so many O rebounds.
While not officially a trap game this can totally be a wtf game if we come out flat
Pike needs to keep the kids focused on tonight and not looking ahead to MSG.
With basketball it can come down to 2-3 missed shots.
- missed easy layup that leads to a break for the other team is a 4 pt turnaround.
- missed 3 that rolls around the rim and out that leads to the other team scoring is a 5 pt turnaround
- errant pass to an open person under the basket that gets picked off for a fast break is a 4 pt turnaround
Harper Jr going 3-7 vs 1-7 from 3 pt range can also be a difference.
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Pike needs to keep the kids focused on tonight and not looking ahead to MSG.
With basketball it can come down to 2-3 missed shots.
- missed easy layup that leads to a break for the other team is a 4 pt turnaround.
- missed 3 that rolls around the rim and out that leads to the other team scoring is a 5 pt turnaround
- errant pass to an open person under the basket that gets picked off for a fast break is a 4 pt turnaround
Harper Jr going 3-7 vs 1-7 from 3 pt range can also be a difference.
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