It is often said that correlation doesn't imply causation. But that's just dumb. Of course it implies causation; it just doesn't prove causation. If it didn't imply causation, we wouldn't be fooled by it so often.
Given that the data are observational and not experimental, we have to examine possible alternative hypotheses and see if we can rule them out. For example:
1. Maybe applications jumped quickly everywhere. That can be tested.
2. Maybe applications jumped quickly in universities that are similar to RU in some sense (they are in NJ, they are in the B1G, they are major state universities. That can be tested also.
3. Maybe something else happened at RU that caused it to become popular. We'd have to look to see what that was. The international application increase suggests that this might be a possibility as most international students wouldn't be expected to know/care about the B1G.
We can also look for confirming data. Applications up dramatically from B1G area schools, where, perhaps, kids are hearing about us who have not before. Timing: When did the applications rise? The first year in the B1G.
Ultimately, absent experimental data, we are using what we have and working toward the most parsimonious decision. In this case, right now it looks to me like a clear benefit to having joined the B1G.
Given that the data are observational and not experimental, we have to examine possible alternative hypotheses and see if we can rule them out. For example:
1. Maybe applications jumped quickly everywhere. That can be tested.
2. Maybe applications jumped quickly in universities that are similar to RU in some sense (they are in NJ, they are in the B1G, they are major state universities. That can be tested also.
3. Maybe something else happened at RU that caused it to become popular. We'd have to look to see what that was. The international application increase suggests that this might be a possibility as most international students wouldn't be expected to know/care about the B1G.
We can also look for confirming data. Applications up dramatically from B1G area schools, where, perhaps, kids are hearing about us who have not before. Timing: When did the applications rise? The first year in the B1G.
Ultimately, absent experimental data, we are using what we have and working toward the most parsimonious decision. In this case, right now it looks to me like a clear benefit to having joined the B1G.
