Just about, for NJ. I'd say let's see cases (on a 7-day moving average - we're at about 1110/day now) go down below 270/day (the equivalent to Fauci's goal of <10,000/day for the US for "returning to normal") and stay there for awhile and hopefully even go lower and see vaccinations continue to increase before completely dropping indoor mask restrictions - I think we'll reach that number by early June. We were between 300 and 500 cases per day for 3 months last summer, but we knew we were nowhere near herd immunity (despite people like Atlas and many on this board, thinking we were) so we saw cases skyrocket in the fall, as expected.
We're at 54% of all people in NJ with at least one shot and 41% fully vaccinated, which translates to 66% of eligible adults with one shot and 50% fully vaccinated. The best comparison is Israel, which has 9.2MM people vs. NJ's 8.9MM people and Israel is down around 50 cases per day, which is well below their 280 cases/day "Fauci target," so I'd expect to see them drop all COVID restrictions shortly (they just dropped all outdoor mask requirements).
Israel has 60% of the population with one shot and 56% fully vaccinated, which sounds close to NJ's numbers (54/41%), but Israel is a much younger country, so their 60% of the population translates to 84% of eligible adults with at least one shot and 56% of the total population fully vaccinated is equal to 80% of eligibile adults (vs. NJ's 66/50%). So we're still a bit behind Israel, but gaining ground, as they're close to done vaccinating eligible adults (won't get much beyond 80%).
