Once against the Rutgers basketball season has come to a close before we have hit the midpoint of March but finally we have a program filled with hope and optimism for the future. This year was not going to be about wins and losses. It was going to be about a culture change across the board. The steps taken by the players and what Coack Pikiell instilled in this program is going to be the bridge to the future. He is doing it the right way and the kids are buying into it the right way. The stench of losing culture and expecting to lose every game and not just lose but to lose by alot has been eliminated. I do not think this team came into any game this year thinking that they could not win. Not one. Contrast that with the prior 3 years. Last year RU won 7 games and set records for losses by over 20 and 30 points over the previous 3 years of Jordan. This year they won 15 games! An 8 game improvement plus were competitive in many more losses. RU did not give up in adversity once they went down. Gone was the routine of curling into a ball..and yes there were a couple of games it happened..Iowa/Michigan State/last night vs Northwestern but that will happen. Even the best of teams have the doors blown off of them. You can have those exceptions, the pattern shows otherswise.
Pike taught them on how to compete. Improvements across the board (except foul shooting). I know people will say wait this team shot worse than last year or previous Jordan teams well we need to accept that this is not a good shooting team, very offensively challenged and its been a challenge for the staff to generate offense. Thats why the emphasize on rebounding and defense was so important to get this team to compete and believe and it really worked. I thought while the shooting woes persisted most of the season, I thought this was a well run offense for the talent we have. RU just does not have that natural point guard with those instincts, Pike did a solid job in getting Corey to move to that role but he can only do so much. Corey improved on being a distributor while struggling a bit with his decision making. Whether it was Gettys or Mike or Freeman they all seemed to accept their roles on what they had to do. The bench struggled this year. We had depth but just not quality depth. The freshmen were not ready to contribute like they would need to win games. Thats okay for this season. Next year we need to see the improvement from Eugene and Thiam because those guys have the most potential for growth.
I caution the fans though about expectations.I hope some our more optimistic fans simmer down about expecations. RU won 3 league games this year. True they were competitive and had leads deep in several games...but you know what, you can say the same thing for just about every school in this league. Its a tough conference. There are no easies. Being competitive is just one part of the equation. It was a step that the program took from having a losing attitude expecting to get blown out. Competing is not winning. Having leads is not winning. The program is still in the process of learning how to win games. Certainly the wins over Illinois and Ohio State were steps in the right direction...back to back wins against better talent, games that could have easily gone the other direction. The team made the plays down the stretch to win. Thats tangible progress from earlier in the year.
Unfortunately as of now RU is just bringing in two players, both guards and one is not known for providing any offense and Baker will be a freshmen that is far from a savior. They lose Gettys and leave a very shaky situation at center with Doorson/Sa not looking like they can handle a full time role. Then we have the attrition. I would expect 2-3 players gone this year, most can assume who they might be. It will open up schollies for the 2018 and 2019 classes where Pike really needs to land some impact players. Next year we can hope that this team with experience can close out a few more of these games and reverse a couple of losses. Still RU does not exist in a vacuum. The Big 10 was down this year and young too. It will be better next year, mark my words. Also RU will not sneak up on anyone next year like they did on a few teams this year. Word is out that RU plays hard. RU has the 14th rated class coming in. Everyone is getting better, even if some schools have players leaving they will plug in greater talent than what RU has. RU will have the advantage of another year under Pike's tutelage and will carry experience as their strength.
Do not know how the Big 10 schedule will shake out or non conference. The non conference schedule was extremely weak this year but it was the right choice. I expect next years will be a bit tougher so not sure if 11-2 will be duplicated. I think the program should be challenged by some tougher low end Power 5 schools and some tougher mid majors. I think a goal of getting 6 conference wins next year is reasonable. Some may say that is setting expectations too low. Well consider PSU only had 6. Indiana with all their talent only had 7. Very tough to move up in league. Unless you pull a Pitino who had a great class coming to go along with a strong nucleus that had lost alot of close games the year before, schools do not make leaps of 6 or more games...Do not expect RU to go 9-9 in league next year unless a Jerome Coleman lands in our lap. If this team can keep the attitude from this season get 6 conference wins and wins 10 non conferences, RU would finish 16-15 their first plus 500 season in 11 or 12 years. that would be taking the next necessary step and help Pike out with his recruiting. Could they overacheive? Certainly, I would not rule it out, they could make a surprise NIT run and the experience factor would be the catalyst but we should be careful not to heap expectations for next year.
if you follow this progression...knowing that year 3 might be a slight step back with alot of new players coming in....
year 1: 15-18/3-15
year 2: 17-16/6-12 possibly CBI?
year 3: 15-18/4-14
year 4: 18-15/7-11 NIT bubble?
year 5: 20-13/9-9 NIT, NCAA bubble
I think this is the progression that realistically we are looking at here given the talent we have, the talent leaving and the talent yet recruited. I do think year 3 is going to be a growing pains kind of year for the program with Johnson, Williams, and Freeman all leaving and freshmen for that class still to be recruited besides Doucoure and who knows if Sanders also leaves. Then in year 4 hopefully with newer talent taking on greater roles things start coming into play and year 5 the NCAA could at least be visible even if not attained. I am okay with a 6 year plan for the NCAA tourney.
RECRUIT RECRUIT RECRUIT....cannot be stressed enough, nothing more needs to be said. Pike and his staff can coach. Its a given. Can they recruit? That is the question and the whole premise of turning things around will crumble if they cannot recruit solid talent for both 2018 and 2019
If you read this far, thank you. I realize its a long post but I posted this on a coffee buzz.
Pike taught them on how to compete. Improvements across the board (except foul shooting). I know people will say wait this team shot worse than last year or previous Jordan teams well we need to accept that this is not a good shooting team, very offensively challenged and its been a challenge for the staff to generate offense. Thats why the emphasize on rebounding and defense was so important to get this team to compete and believe and it really worked. I thought while the shooting woes persisted most of the season, I thought this was a well run offense for the talent we have. RU just does not have that natural point guard with those instincts, Pike did a solid job in getting Corey to move to that role but he can only do so much. Corey improved on being a distributor while struggling a bit with his decision making. Whether it was Gettys or Mike or Freeman they all seemed to accept their roles on what they had to do. The bench struggled this year. We had depth but just not quality depth. The freshmen were not ready to contribute like they would need to win games. Thats okay for this season. Next year we need to see the improvement from Eugene and Thiam because those guys have the most potential for growth.
I caution the fans though about expectations.I hope some our more optimistic fans simmer down about expecations. RU won 3 league games this year. True they were competitive and had leads deep in several games...but you know what, you can say the same thing for just about every school in this league. Its a tough conference. There are no easies. Being competitive is just one part of the equation. It was a step that the program took from having a losing attitude expecting to get blown out. Competing is not winning. Having leads is not winning. The program is still in the process of learning how to win games. Certainly the wins over Illinois and Ohio State were steps in the right direction...back to back wins against better talent, games that could have easily gone the other direction. The team made the plays down the stretch to win. Thats tangible progress from earlier in the year.
Unfortunately as of now RU is just bringing in two players, both guards and one is not known for providing any offense and Baker will be a freshmen that is far from a savior. They lose Gettys and leave a very shaky situation at center with Doorson/Sa not looking like they can handle a full time role. Then we have the attrition. I would expect 2-3 players gone this year, most can assume who they might be. It will open up schollies for the 2018 and 2019 classes where Pike really needs to land some impact players. Next year we can hope that this team with experience can close out a few more of these games and reverse a couple of losses. Still RU does not exist in a vacuum. The Big 10 was down this year and young too. It will be better next year, mark my words. Also RU will not sneak up on anyone next year like they did on a few teams this year. Word is out that RU plays hard. RU has the 14th rated class coming in. Everyone is getting better, even if some schools have players leaving they will plug in greater talent than what RU has. RU will have the advantage of another year under Pike's tutelage and will carry experience as their strength.
Do not know how the Big 10 schedule will shake out or non conference. The non conference schedule was extremely weak this year but it was the right choice. I expect next years will be a bit tougher so not sure if 11-2 will be duplicated. I think the program should be challenged by some tougher low end Power 5 schools and some tougher mid majors. I think a goal of getting 6 conference wins next year is reasonable. Some may say that is setting expectations too low. Well consider PSU only had 6. Indiana with all their talent only had 7. Very tough to move up in league. Unless you pull a Pitino who had a great class coming to go along with a strong nucleus that had lost alot of close games the year before, schools do not make leaps of 6 or more games...Do not expect RU to go 9-9 in league next year unless a Jerome Coleman lands in our lap. If this team can keep the attitude from this season get 6 conference wins and wins 10 non conferences, RU would finish 16-15 their first plus 500 season in 11 or 12 years. that would be taking the next necessary step and help Pike out with his recruiting. Could they overacheive? Certainly, I would not rule it out, they could make a surprise NIT run and the experience factor would be the catalyst but we should be careful not to heap expectations for next year.
if you follow this progression...knowing that year 3 might be a slight step back with alot of new players coming in....
year 1: 15-18/3-15
year 2: 17-16/6-12 possibly CBI?
year 3: 15-18/4-14
year 4: 18-15/7-11 NIT bubble?
year 5: 20-13/9-9 NIT, NCAA bubble
I think this is the progression that realistically we are looking at here given the talent we have, the talent leaving and the talent yet recruited. I do think year 3 is going to be a growing pains kind of year for the program with Johnson, Williams, and Freeman all leaving and freshmen for that class still to be recruited besides Doucoure and who knows if Sanders also leaves. Then in year 4 hopefully with newer talent taking on greater roles things start coming into play and year 5 the NCAA could at least be visible even if not attained. I am okay with a 6 year plan for the NCAA tourney.
RECRUIT RECRUIT RECRUIT....cannot be stressed enough, nothing more needs to be said. Pike and his staff can coach. Its a given. Can they recruit? That is the question and the whole premise of turning things around will crumble if they cannot recruit solid talent for both 2018 and 2019
If you read this far, thank you. I realize its a long post but I posted this on a coffee buzz.
