a big issue is RU will not have a clean resume. A loss to Princeton is likely forgiven but a loss to Kennessaw is not..they may dip down to Quad 4. Beating a sub 500 Notre Dame by 1 point on a neutral court is going to be laughed at
THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
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ND also lost their best player a minute into that game. We should have blown them out.
Sports are not played on a spreadsheet! I appreciate your approach but find it completely flawed in this example. No one who played will ever consider it luck. It’s, what did we do or not do to be in this moment. Whether the opening tip or the last shot.
Once again it’s not luck! Don’t call a ridiculous time out late with a 50 plus yard fg into a steady 30 mph win with 40mph gusts. Ru controlled the outcome and the coach screwed up. Simple! bad coach making bad decisions late not luck. Not being prepared w personal when they choose to go for it. Bad coaching late in games . Not luck
Seton Hall was Dylan’s shot lucky? Or has he taken and made in practice 1 million 3 point shots? Is Steph Curry the luckiest logo shooter ever? Percentage say that’s a terrible shot a “lucky” shot if it goes in. OR has Steph taken 10+ mil 3’s at this point of his career so it’s a learned skill?
Houston -2021
Notre Dame -2022
Minnesota -2023 (which shouldn’t have been close in the final minute)
Three close losses which will be on the coach’s epitaph and will forever haunt this program until they don’t.
ill give them a pass that we were making progress that game even if it was against a bad team
add Kennesaw State 2024 as a pivotal marker for this year
Rutgers is starting the second half of the season at a big disadvantage.Most of the B1G Ten teams already have at least 10 wins while Rutgers has only 8.The only way Rutgers can increase their status is with a extended winning streak and having plenty other teams start losing home games.What happens in the next three home games will likely decide Rutgers fate as to be either knocked out of NCAA consideration or still alive for at least another couple weeks.The margin for error/loss is quickly disappearing.
Every year we do this fun thing where we give ourselves zero margin for error. Even when we finished 4th in the B1G, we lost three straight to DePaul, Lafayette, and Umass.
It’s getting old by now. It doesn’t matter if it’s a bad team like last year or our best team, we always step on land mines. I don’t get it
I’m not asking for much here. I’m not asking for a final 4 not or even a sweet 16 run. I know the tournament can be bad luck with matchups. All I wanted was to see this team comfortably make the tournament. That’s all. Instead, there were some on this board celebrating the moral victory after play Bama and TAMU close.
It’s getting old by now. It doesn’t matter if it’s a bad team like last year or our best team, we always step on land mines. I don’t get it
I’m not asking for much here. I’m not asking for a final 4 not or even a sweet 16 run. I know the tournament can be bad luck with matchups. All I wanted was to see this team comfortably make the tournament. That’s all. Instead, there were some on this board celebrating the moral victory after play Bama and TAMU close.
I'm not saying I think they will annex 6 Q1 wins. I don't even think we'll be over .500 overall to be honest. But if you get to 18 wins that includes 6 more Q1s at least (with current rankings).
It's not luck, but it's something you have minimal control over the result of a single trial.
If someone is a 45% 3 point shooter and they nail a game winner, that isn't "luck". But they're only going to hit it 45% of the time. The difference between the times they do and the times they don't... I mean luck is not really the right word but it's variance and it's not really under their control.
You practice to get to 45%. You don't practice to guarantee you will make it in whatever the most important situation is.
Anyway, yes Schiano's timeout was stupid I guess but it's silly to view that as the one thing that lost the game.
RU is now #90
Q1: 0-5 / Q2: 2-0 / Q3: 1-2 / Q4: 5-0
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
9 - (N)Alabama (L)
17 - (N)Texas A&M (L)
25 - Wisconsin (L)
31 - @OSU (L)
56 - @Indiana (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
48 - PSU (W)
100 - (N)Notre Dame (W)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
123 - (N)Princeton (L)
128 - Columbia (W)
190 - @Kennesaw St (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
191 - Merrimack (W)
200 - SHU (W)
236 - St. Peters (W)
281 - Monmouth (W)
346 - Wagner (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
7 - Illinois
14 - @Michigan
14 - Michigan
18 - UCLA
19 - (N)MSU
20 - @Oregon
22 - @Maryland
27 - @Purdue
27 - Purdue
33 - @Nebraska
48 - @PSU
53 - @Northwestern
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
58 - Iowa
91 - @Washington
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
94 - USC
157 - Minnesota
Notes:
- (N)FUND back to Q2, barely
- Minnesota back to Q3, also barely
- SHU drops to 200
- 9 Top 30 opponents left out of 16 total
Edit: To fix Nebraska as an away game.
Q1: 0-5 / Q2: 2-0 / Q3: 1-2 / Q4: 5-0
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
9 - (N)Alabama (L)
17 - (N)Texas A&M (L)
25 - Wisconsin (L)
31 - @OSU (L)
56 - @Indiana (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
48 - PSU (W)
100 - (N)Notre Dame (W)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
123 - (N)Princeton (L)
128 - Columbia (W)
190 - @Kennesaw St (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
191 - Merrimack (W)
200 - SHU (W)
236 - St. Peters (W)
281 - Monmouth (W)
346 - Wagner (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
7 - Illinois
14 - @Michigan
14 - Michigan
18 - UCLA
19 - (N)MSU
20 - @Oregon
22 - @Maryland
27 - @Purdue
27 - Purdue
33 - @Nebraska
48 - @PSU
53 - @Northwestern
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
58 - Iowa
91 - @Washington
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
94 - USC
157 - Minnesota
Notes:
- (N)FUND back to Q2, barely
- Minnesota back to Q3, also barely
- SHU drops to 200
- 9 Top 30 opponents left out of 16 total
Edit: To fix Nebraska as an away game.
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Just a minor correction..nebraska is on the road
Looking at bids and conferences a bit more.
First off, only 31 auto-bids this year, leaving 37 at-large, since the Pac12 dissolved.
Last year's multi-bid conferences:
SEC (8 of 14)... now 16 (picked up 2 from B12)
B12 (8 of 14)... now 16 (picked up 4 from Pac12, lost 2 to SEC)
B1G (6 of 14)... now 18 (picked up 4 from Pac12)
MWC (6 of 11)... still 11
ACC (5 of 15)... now 18 (picked up 2 from Pac12, 1 from AAC)
P12 (4 of 12)... now defunct
BE (3 of 11)... still 11
WCC (2 of 9)... now 11
A10 (2 of 15)... still 15
AAC (2 of 14)... now 13 (lost one to ACC)
This year:
SEC - 14 teams in NET top 50
B12 - 9 teams in NET top 50
B1G - 11 teams in NET top 50
MWC - 2 teams in NET top 50
ACC - 6 teams in NET top 50
P12 - defunct
BE - 4 teams in NET top 50
WCC - 2 teams in NET top 50
A10 - 0 teams in NET top 50
AAC - 1 team in NET top 50
If the tournament were to start today, the A10 and AAC would be single-bid conferences, and the MWC (Utah St, SDSU) and WCC (Gonzaga, St. Mary's) might each get 2 . That'd mean 35 of the 37 at-large bids (and 40 of the 68 overall teams) would be coming from 5 conferences (SEC, B12, B1G, ACC, and Big East)
Last year, the top 5 conferences made up just 28 of 36 at-large bids. I have a feeling the committee is going to leave out 1-2 bubble teams from those 5 conferences (especially the Big 4, excluding the Big East) to make room for another multi-bid conference or two (e.g., to get in an extra A10, ACC, or MWC team)
First off, only 31 auto-bids this year, leaving 37 at-large, since the Pac12 dissolved.
Last year's multi-bid conferences:
SEC (8 of 14)... now 16 (picked up 2 from B12)
B12 (8 of 14)... now 16 (picked up 4 from Pac12, lost 2 to SEC)
B1G (6 of 14)... now 18 (picked up 4 from Pac12)
MWC (6 of 11)... still 11
ACC (5 of 15)... now 18 (picked up 2 from Pac12, 1 from AAC)
P12 (4 of 12)... now defunct
BE (3 of 11)... still 11
WCC (2 of 9)... now 11
A10 (2 of 15)... still 15
AAC (2 of 14)... now 13 (lost one to ACC)
This year:
SEC - 14 teams in NET top 50
B12 - 9 teams in NET top 50
B1G - 11 teams in NET top 50
MWC - 2 teams in NET top 50
ACC - 6 teams in NET top 50
P12 - defunct
BE - 4 teams in NET top 50
WCC - 2 teams in NET top 50
A10 - 0 teams in NET top 50
AAC - 1 team in NET top 50
If the tournament were to start today, the A10 and AAC would be single-bid conferences, and the MWC (Utah St, SDSU) and WCC (Gonzaga, St. Mary's) might each get 2 . That'd mean 35 of the 37 at-large bids (and 40 of the 68 overall teams) would be coming from 5 conferences (SEC, B12, B1G, ACC, and Big East)
Last year, the top 5 conferences made up just 28 of 36 at-large bids. I have a feeling the committee is going to leave out 1-2 bubble teams from those 5 conferences (especially the Big 4, excluding the Big East) to make room for another multi-bid conference or two (e.g., to get in an extra A10, ACC, or MWC team)
The power conferences are doing quite strong this season. The conferences just below the power ones but arent really mid major.. I do think the WCC has a shot at stealing bids that normally go to MWC. 5 schools including 3 you didnt mention...the 2 Pac 12 leftovers Washington State/Oregon State and San Fransisco are in reasonable shape.
in the Mountain West which i guess is like a low power conference there are only 4 schools really with shots at bids and as you mentioned only 2 are in the top 50...usually the MountainWest has 6-7
schools competing at this point.
for the A10...its St Bonnies, Dayton, VCU competing....this conference does tend to get that 2nd.
I dont see the ACC getting alot of bids when all is said and done, their OOC performance was pretty bad. I see SMU falling off the map soon. UNC is still questionable A 5 or possibly 4 if UNC struggles league.
The dearth of anyone at large candidates beyond the top 8 conferences is telling where this is headed...only Memphis (who has to get out of this sinking ship of a conference) has an at large case
With the sec, things will sort themselves out and tiers will develop. We will know those who deserve it and those near the fringe. They could get 12 but not more than that. Thats my issue with bracektology early and thats why I dont do it. The SEC schools have all played just one conference game. Bracketologists fall in love with current resumes and they fail to make the sizable shifts to account for losses for schools they hype early in their brackets. Schools like Texas and Missouri will likely fall off the map soon. I also just glanced at some of the non conference sos and it looks like the SEC is doing what the Big 12 did a few years back. Load up on cupcakes big time and blow them out. Then everyone has a strong net going into league play and it stays that way. The upper tier schools definitely scheduled strong but then you have schools like Texas, Georgia, Vandy, LSU, South Caroling and Oklahoma
At this point, though, we're halfway through the season and all the OOC games are over... the only games left are conference matchups, and relative conference strength is pretty well baked. The SEC teams are going to beat up on each other, but almost all of their remaining games are Q1/Q2. The worst thing that can happen as an SEC school right now is to lose at home to South Carolina, who's 93rd. That's the only Q3 game left for any SEC team. Next worse is a home loss to #61 LSU.
That's how the MWC got 6 in last year - great early metrics/perception, then their in-conference losses to each other didn't look so bad.
On the flip side, the ACC has terrible metrics/perception this season so the top teams have to rise above it or be left out. They have landmines everywhere (9 schools with NET of 100 or lower). Going to be much harder for ACC schools to build a resume at this point with what remains on their schedule.
Going to be tough for the A10 to get two this year, given that their best program is currently a NET of 50 and they only have 3 programs that would quality as Q1 opportunities even on the road. And VCU and the Bonnies don't have a Q1 win yet. VCU is 1-3 against Q1/Q2 and has a Q3 loss... and their only chance for a Q1 win left on their schedule is one game @Dayton. The Bonnies also have just one more chance at a Q1 win, @VCU. That doesn't mean the committee won't squint to see a second A10 team, though.
As for Memphis being an at-large case, they'd only be in that position if there were an AAC bid stealer.
That's how the MWC got 6 in last year - great early metrics/perception, then their in-conference losses to each other didn't look so bad.
On the flip side, the ACC has terrible metrics/perception this season so the top teams have to rise above it or be left out. They have landmines everywhere (9 schools with NET of 100 or lower). Going to be much harder for ACC schools to build a resume at this point with what remains on their schedule.
Going to be tough for the A10 to get two this year, given that their best program is currently a NET of 50 and they only have 3 programs that would quality as Q1 opportunities even on the road. And VCU and the Bonnies don't have a Q1 win yet. VCU is 1-3 against Q1/Q2 and has a Q3 loss... and their only chance for a Q1 win left on their schedule is one game @Dayton. The Bonnies also have just one more chance at a Q1 win, @VCU. That doesn't mean the committee won't squint to see a second A10 team, though.
As for Memphis being an at-large case, they'd only be in that position if there were an AAC bid stealer.
Dayton has wins over UConn and Marquette plus Northwestern and 3 of their losses were to tourney type teams.....unfortunately they suffered a hideous loss to GW by 20 which realy dinged their metrics....2-3 in Q1 and 1-1 in Q2...sos of 47/35. The GW loss though is Q2 still for now. If they finish relatively well but its the Bonnies who win the league with a gaudy overall mark like 25-6, its going to be hard to keep the bonnies out if they dont win the conference tourney. i know their sos sucks but they are currently 31 for wins above bubble and sor is 30. I agree with you on VCU, it seems like every year they hang around the outskirts. Perhaps if they didnt have a really bad loss to SHU but still if they win enough games they will be in the mix and they are a legit shot to win the league and thats how there is potential for even 3 if things broke exactly right and then you pluck a major conference school out....but that less than a 10% chance.
Dayton's got a fair chance at an at-large if they don't get the A10 autobid if things break right for them.
If the Bonnie's finish 25-6, though, I can't see any way they are in without an auto-bid. They only have 2 more Q1/Q2 games left and have only one loss so far. They are also favored in all of their remaining games but one. If they drop 5 more games, that'd be at least 3 Q3/Q4 losses on their resume as well as the related metrics hit from losing to several teams lower than them in NET.... and if their other two losses are Dayton and @VCU, it would mean no Q1 wins to balance them (0-2 Q1, 3-1 Q2). If they take care of business against everyone by Dayton and VCU, and finish 28-3, it'd be hard to keep them out.... but last year, Indiana St got left out at 26-5 (1-3 Q1, 4-1 Q2) with one bad Q4 loss at home.
was Indiana State eiher the last or next to last team out..those conference tourney upsets played a role in them being pushed out. I also think the A10 is more respected than the MVC currently at 7. I just think if they win the regular season that will be good enough. It would help to beat a Dayton along the way. They do have 3 Q2 wins right now and their only loss was to Utah State...if i were to do a bracket today which im not and still at least 3 weeks from doing one, I would have them in
Right now, yes, but their resume can't really improve much from here without basically winning out. If they can finish with a clean sheet in Q3/Q4, I'm sure they'd be very attractive to the committee and get an at-large... but that would also mean they'd finish at least 28-3, with their only regular season losses to some combination of Dayton, VCU, and Utah St.
NET tumbles 6 places to 93
Purdue moves up 5 to 21
Notre Dame back to 98 now Quad 2
Yes this is for shits and giggles
Purdue moves up 5 to 21
Notre Dame back to 98 now Quad 2
Yes this is for shits and giggles
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NET slides to 95
Notre Dame right behind at 96
UCLA at 30 is a Quad 1 win opportunity that would almost certainly immediately knock the Bruins down to a Quad 2 victory after it happens.
Columbia at 160 is just one spot away from moving from a Quad 3 win to a Quad 4 win.
RU SOS overall is 41, non conference 146
RU WAB is 117!
RU is 0-6 in Quad 1 games, only 2 other schools Iowa and Minnesota are winless in Q1 but Iowa has 5 Q2 wins.
Notre Dame right behind at 96
UCLA at 30 is a Quad 1 win opportunity that would almost certainly immediately knock the Bruins down to a Quad 2 victory after it happens.
Columbia at 160 is just one spot away from moving from a Quad 3 win to a Quad 4 win.
RU SOS overall is 41, non conference 146
RU WAB is 117!
RU is 0-6 in Quad 1 games, only 2 other schools Iowa and Minnesota are winless in Q1 but Iowa has 5 Q2 wins.
so both Dayton and St Bonaventure are killing their resumes. Dayton had a hideous loss at UMass and has dropped 3 of its last 4. Still they do have wins over Marquette and UConn and that will go along way as long as they can win the A10 regular season title. For St Bonaventure losing to La Salle was a disaster..its Q3 right now but very easily can be Q4. At 13-3 even and no Q1 wins their NET is down to 68 already
Not so fun fact:
As I look this morning, every school in the SEC has a better NET than RU.
As I look this morning, every school in the SEC has a better NET than RU.
plus 14 of 16 Big 12 and 9 of the 11 Big East
Of the top 4 conferences, out of 61 schools, RU would land 55th right now
Good reminder to myself why I haven't looked at the NET this year. NO NEED
Rutgers picks up their best win of the year.
NET vaults 7 spots up to 88
UCLA drops to 38 from 32
Notre Dame rises to 90
Columbia dips 1 to 161 to move to a Quad 4 win taking away an incredibly important Q3 victory from Rutgers
Quad 1: 0-6
Quad 2: 3-0
Quad 3: 0-2
Quad 4: 6-0
Rutgers Q1/2/3 record is 3-8. Thats no bueno. Rutgers will need 3 MORE WINS in a row to put themselves bac on the bubble. That Q1/2/3 usually needs to OVER .500 but if its a game under you can still get selected. 3 games or more under..forget about it. Now Columbia can easily move back into Quad 3 but I am basically just giving you the reality of just HOW MUCH WORK Rutgers has to do to get themselves back in business
WAB is 102
SOS is 32
NON CONFERENCE is 142
NET vaults 7 spots up to 88
UCLA drops to 38 from 32
Notre Dame rises to 90
Columbia dips 1 to 161 to move to a Quad 4 win taking away an incredibly important Q3 victory from Rutgers
Quad 1: 0-6
Quad 2: 3-0
Quad 3: 0-2
Quad 4: 6-0
Rutgers Q1/2/3 record is 3-8. Thats no bueno. Rutgers will need 3 MORE WINS in a row to put themselves bac on the bubble. That Q1/2/3 usually needs to OVER .500 but if its a game under you can still get selected. 3 games or more under..forget about it. Now Columbia can easily move back into Quad 3 but I am basically just giving you the reality of just HOW MUCH WORK Rutgers has to do to get themselves back in business
WAB is 102
SOS is 32
NON CONFERENCE is 142
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South Carolina dips from 91 to 93. We are no longer worse than every SEC team.
Set the bar highSouth Carolina dips from 91 to 93. We are no longer worse than every SEC team.
baby stepsSouth Carolina dips from 91 to 93. We are no longer worse than every SEC team.
RU is now #88
Q1: 0-6 / Q2: 3-0 / Q3: 0-2 / Q4: 6-0
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
7 - (N)Alabama (L)
14 - Purdue (L)
18 - (N)Texas A&M (L)
24 - Wisconsin (L)
29 - @OSU (L)
60 - @Indiana (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
38 - UCLA (W)
41 - PSU (W)
90 - (N)Notre Dame (W)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
121 - (N)Princeton (L)
183 - @Kennesaw St (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
161 - Columbia (W)
179 - SHU (W)
186 - Merrimack (W)
235 - St. Peters (W)
278 - Monmouth (W)
340 - Wagner (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
9 - Illinois
11 - @Michigan
11 - Michigan
14 - @Purdue
15 - MSU (at MSG)
21 - @Oregon
23- @Maryland
45 - @Nebraska
50 - @PSU
56 - @Northwestern
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
43 - Iowa
96 - @Washington
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
76 - USC
141 - Minnesota
Notes:
- USC knocking on the door of Q2
- Columbia slips into Q4
- 10 more Q1 opportunities, only 2 at the RAC... and if we win, those teams have high risk to slip to Q2 because losses to us at home would be Q3 right now.
Q1: 0-6 / Q2: 3-0 / Q3: 0-2 / Q4: 6-0
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
7 - (N)Alabama (L)
14 - Purdue (L)
18 - (N)Texas A&M (L)
24 - Wisconsin (L)
29 - @OSU (L)
60 - @Indiana (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
38 - UCLA (W)
41 - PSU (W)
90 - (N)Notre Dame (W)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
121 - (N)Princeton (L)
183 - @Kennesaw St (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
161 - Columbia (W)
179 - SHU (W)
186 - Merrimack (W)
235 - St. Peters (W)
278 - Monmouth (W)
340 - Wagner (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
9 - Illinois
11 - @Michigan
11 - Michigan
14 - @Purdue
15 - MSU (at MSG)
21 - @Oregon
23- @Maryland
45 - @Nebraska
50 - @PSU
56 - @Northwestern
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
43 - Iowa
96 - @Washington
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
76 - USC
141 - Minnesota
Notes:
- USC knocking on the door of Q2
- Columbia slips into Q4
- 10 more Q1 opportunities, only 2 at the RAC... and if we win, those teams have high risk to slip to Q2 because losses to us at home would be Q3 right now.
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Our 2 Q1s at the RAC are currently #9 and #11, they would need to fall 21 and 19 spots to get out of Q1. Obviously that could happen but I don't think a single road loss to Rutgers would move the needle much there.
Also for what it's worth the #30 team in kenpom is currently rated +19.19 and we are currently rated 9.39. At 70 possessions per game and with a 3 point HCA they would only be favored by 3.5-4 points at the RAC meaning that losing to us wouldn't be that huge of a NET hit if it was a close game.
Also you list MSU as neutral but pretty sure that counts as a home game.
I mean from the perspective of another team, a Q3 home loss to Rutgers could drop them down in the NET. A road loss to us would technically be a Q2 game for an opponent, not a Q3 game.
Though a road loss probably won't drop even Northwestern or PSU to 76th.
As for MSU, wasn't sure if it was home/neutral. Last go round was originally ruled Neutral, then later ruled as home. I will change to home for now.
I originally read your comment as referring to the two RAC Q1 games specifically but now I understand that you meant all of the Q1s generally.
NET rises to 87
Columbia up a spot to 160 and becomes a Quad 3 win again.
Nebraska is 45
Columbia up a spot to 160 and becomes a Quad 3 win again.
Nebraska is 45
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