Honestly the most Pike thing ever would be going 8-4 and then building a 20 point lead against Minny, giving it all back, but eventually gritting out like a 2 point win.
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Honestly the most Pike thing ever would be going 8-4 and then building a 20 point lead against Minny, giving it all back, but eventually gritting out like a 2 point win.
Yes I hate BS statistics like.. how many points the opponent scored per possession. Why not focus on real things that matter?
Am I crazy to think that 18 regular season wins gives them a good shot to get in? Hypothetical, and still unlikely, scenario they only lose to Illinois, @Maryland, @Oregon, @Michigan, and @Purdue. This gets them to 18-13 and 12-13 in Quad's 1, 2, and 3. On their own the metrics are not good enough but the NCAA will try to use any justification possible to get Rutgers in.
Just like using the Mag injury, and subsequent collapse, to justify keeping Rutgers out, they can point to the new rotation starting with the UCLA game as the catalyst. Since that time they'd have gone 5-5 in Quad 1 games and 10-5 in Quads 1, 2, and 3. This would also have to coincide with not losing the first game in the B1G tournament assuming they get one bye.
Just like using the Mag injury, and subsequent collapse, to justify keeping Rutgers out, they can point to the new rotation starting with the UCLA game as the catalyst. Since that time they'd have gone 5-5 in Quad 1 games and 10-5 in Quads 1, 2, and 3. This would also have to coincide with not losing the first game in the B1G tournament assuming they get one bye.
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I don't think 18 does it at all. Min 19 to even be on the bubble, imo, and 20 to be in the "likely in" portion of the bubble. If we don't get to 19 regular season wins, my feeling is we'll have to win the B1G tournament.
For starters I think 19-12 is where they have to be to really be in serious consideration given there is nothing on the ooc and they have one glaring bad loss. I do not think 19-12 is a lock. More like 50/50. Rutgers does not exist in a vacuum so its hard to say what other resumes will look like especially from the Big 10 and many will be borderline like Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State.
The type of wins matter...It would be better of course to beat Illinios AND Michigan at home than it would be to win at Northwestern. It would be better to win at Oregon than to win at home vs Iowa.
your 18-13 scenario would put RU at 5-11 in Quad 1 games and 6-0 in Quad 2 and 1-2 in Quad 3.....the 12-13 preferably needs to be 500 or above but its close here.
The issue is that while RU would have 2 really big wins..perhaps high level Quad 1 wins if Mich/Michigan State stay in top 15, the other ones while 3 on the road might not even be vs tourney teams,,Nebby the best shot of those other 3. The Quad 2 win number is impressive for sure and will get noticed at 6-0 which brings the Q1/2 to 11-11...that is very good. However how many of those teams make the tourney....UCLA maybe and perhaps Iowa. With nothing OOC, I do not like the prospect of RU with that many losses...18-14 or 19-14 if they win a tourney game to get a bid with just maybe 4 wins vs field.
Even getting to 18-13/19-12 is like a total thread the needle scenario at this point. RU had to win these past 2 games to even be in this spot. To me while I would prefer ALL 3, they are going to have to win 2 of 3....beating Michigan State is absolutely necessary..unless they can beat both Illinois and Michigan at home. I think of those 3 "home games" you have to get 2. You have to at least win one of Northwestern/Penn State.
To expect this team not to slip us somewhere down the road is a tough ask....iowa, usc, at washington.....all games which will be very tough
it would be a miracle if they complete this task, miracles do happen, even in my thread when I wrote the season was over I mentioned that. 2 wins and everyone is feeling great but there was alot of damage done early on.
As for the Harper flu. Not seeing it a big consideration mainly becausee RU wasnt all that great with a full lineup. He did end up playing 1.5 games basically. I dont give the committee credit for looking at sickness issues rather than bodily injury
Ouch. Not the best company to be surrounded by
I was at the SDSU game this week where they smacked an unimpressive CSU team
Ethan Morten coming off the bench for them btw
As you say, we don't exist in a bubble, and we could get some help from other teams surging or collapsing. None of that is in our control, though... Still think we need 19 wins to enter consideration barring something very unexpected.
We really need to hope for an unimpressive bubble group of teams
There's always still hope, as long as we are not left out of the Big Ten tournament. Chip and a chair.
heard that it is a pretty sad bubble right now...however that was sad last year too, the reason its said is we have 45% of the season to go for most schools.
I have not even looked at the picture yet...thats the secret to my sauce.
at the moment, they are clearing out my bunker and supplying it with canned goods, fresh fruit, protein bars and installing a coffee machine so soon
I really agree with your approach. Looking too early definitely leads to "take lock"
the performance the last 2 games and the fact we have 2 extraordinary players at least makes me feel a Big 10 tourney run isnt exactly that far fetched.
though playing 5 games would be tough so finishing 9th i believe we skip the first day
absolutely....saw this last year with bracketologist and their seeding keeping teams too far up in the bracket after losses. Since we are a little more than halfway though, losses at this point should have BIG impacts on seeding
recency bias like is keeping ucla 8, Maryland 9, nebraska 10, and ohio state 11 in the field though all 4 have a hazy outlook to me. Bracketmatrix has Indiana as 2nd team out..what the **** are they smoking...Indiana has a putrid profile, Wins over Penn State, usc and bad Providence doesnt get you in the field.
Great rundown and I don't really disagree with anything you said. I probably should have "a shot" instead of "a good shot" with 18 wins. Why I think they would get consideration is what you allude to that even getting to 18 wins would be such a monumental achievement with their upcoming schedule. They have 7 road games remaining and all but two of their home games are against good to very good competition. The committee has said previously that they take transfers into account for slow starts. Well how about over 80% of the minutes being made up of transfers and freshman? Do they place more value on the second half of the year for a team like that?
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IF ... If RU can keep winning, you want to ROOT HARD for :
1) Princeton to make a run to somehow get into the Top 100 (making it a Quad 2 loss, not a Quad 3 loss),
2) Columbia to make a run (getting into Quad 3) ,
3) UCLA to right its ship and get back into the Top 30 - making it a Quad 1 win (also, them righting the ship means they are beating other Big Ten teams which may help RU in the Bug 10 standings).
Need them to take down Yale and Cornell, who are the only other Ivy schools better than 200 in NET. Princeton has home/away with both, and Columbia has home/away vs Yale and @Cornell (they just lost to Cornell at home). Unfortunately, they have to play each other twice, too.
You answered my question about Dylan's illness effect.. I think it might matter if we were well up there. Frankly while the last two games have been great and restored hope I still have to go with our historical results and see 17- 14 pre BTT and then 18-15. And that wouldn't even be easy.
Gonna be another heartbreak near miss IMHO. I hope I am proven wrong. Maybe we start playing like #24 again.
That is correct.
Teams seeded 10-15 play to advance.
Teams seeded 5-9 get a bye.
Teams seeded 1-4 get a double bye to the quarterfinals.
Clearly, Rutgers making a run to a top 4 seed would mean we are not on the bubble anyway, considering how many more wins we'd need to get there.
yeah i am seeing its going to be tough to finish better than 17-14
on the flip side all 3 quality teams RU beat...ucla, psu and nebraska are all competing with RU for a ncaa bid right now.
It’s not the math it’s the equation! I read that definition you sent from KenPom equating defense on a 3 point shot to defense on a free throw! Lol
Enough said
By the logic you used upthread, Pike obviously used the correct strategy this game because we won the game, and Hoiberg obviously used the incorrect strategy because Nebraska lost the game.
Look, I'm still not 100% certain if you are an idiot or a troll because Poe's Law makes such certainty impossible, but I lean pretty heavily towards troll at this point.
If you want to blame Pike when we lose, and blame Pike for any negative plays when we win then have at it. You are not really worth engaging with and I won't be doing so anymore.
@Greene Rice FIG can be proud.
Didn’t blame Pike actually give him credit. I was merely pointing out the impact of what one play late with 30 secs left on the inbound was a horrific coaching decision that could have cost us.
Hoiborg lost the game with his inbounds play underneath the basket . Credit to Ace who made an uber Athletic play for the steal!
I can't see what the user said because he is on ignore.
I learned what Simpson's paradox is today and I am 30 seconds away from learning about Poe's law. Not sure where in my brain these go...may try and delete pyathagrian theorem
Yes, he should have instructed his player not to let Ace steal it. What an idiot!!
At Penn State - if we win, we put them clearly in the rear window for the B1G and NCAA bid races. After our game, they play at Iowa and at Michigan so they could sink to 2-8. Do the wheels come off if they are in that hole?
Vs. Michigan State - We know the Garden crowd will be wearing a lot of St. John's red that day. They have not exactly faced Murderer's Row in league play: at Minnesota; Nebraska; at Ohio State; Washington; at Northwestern; and Penn State. This is a chance for a high quality W.
Minnesota on Senior Day - if we cannot beat them in this one, we don't deserve to be in the field anyway. I wonder how we will treat Ace and Dylan for this game.
At Washington - I like that we play them a few days after we are at Oregon, which is very likely an L anyway. At least we could be used to the time zone by the time we go to Washington. This game is in a weird spot for them, sandwiched between two road games and another two road games.
Really, I only see two games remaining where it would be hard to make an argument for RU winning: at Oregon, and at Purdue. I don't put much stock in predictive metrics because they don't know Dylan had the flu, or that our lineup and performance are not what they were in November and December.
Vs. Michigan State - We know the Garden crowd will be wearing a lot of St. John's red that day. They have not exactly faced Murderer's Row in league play: at Minnesota; Nebraska; at Ohio State; Washington; at Northwestern; and Penn State. This is a chance for a high quality W.
Minnesota on Senior Day - if we cannot beat them in this one, we don't deserve to be in the field anyway. I wonder how we will treat Ace and Dylan for this game.
At Washington - I like that we play them a few days after we are at Oregon, which is very likely an L anyway. At least we could be used to the time zone by the time we go to Washington. This game is in a weird spot for them, sandwiched between two road games and another two road games.
Really, I only see two games remaining where it would be hard to make an argument for RU winning: at Oregon, and at Purdue. I don't put much stock in predictive metrics because they don't know Dylan had the flu, or that our lineup and performance are not what they were in November and December.
tend to think against this because you either have the resume or you dont.
Pike ran an inbound up 4 w 30 sec left to a Ogbole handoff to Harper. They have to foul . Why is ogbole in the game? If it’s rebounding? Ok then you don’t design the play to go through him when they have to foul when we are in a 1 n 1:
Simple basketball and not in a KenPom spread sheet!
Nebraska can not impound with a small player attempting to throw it over Ace’s head. Both bad decisions.
Did you notice Pike run an unbelievable set with Martini posting hoiborg son? Too small so, Martini had a post option AND because of his size a weak side outlet to Ace or Dylan for 3 . (Ace hit the 4). He’s taller and easy to see over the defense.
Pike to his credit came right back to the same play. Found a weakness and is going to exploit it. To Hoiborgs credit he called a timeout after the 3 and changed there base defense which is too double the post and left martini one on one. He took away Dylan and Ace . No basket.
Unlike Pike who watched Martini get punished against Princeton 4x in a row. Calls timeout and makes no adjustments and lets them go right back to that play.
Coaching matters
No I’ve been assured by numerous geniuses that Pike does not run an offense so I’m pretty sure we collectively hallucinated those plays where we abused Nebraska’s double teams.
For what it’s worth I agree about the play with Ogbole, that was a mistake. Though you also have to give Nebraska credit because Ogbole only had the ball for a split second there and Nebraska was very alert to be able to foul him that quick.
Agreed but also coaching by Hoiborg! In that time out they run their defense to force you to pass to the worst foul shooter. Instructed to foul him right away. Even let the refs know! We are fouling here right away so they get the quick whistle
UCLA up 4 to 33 after demolishing Iowa last night. Inching closer to Q1.
Rutgers holds at 83
Penn State is 46
Penn State is 46
Grabbing some of these winnable road games is huge because it’s a road win and more likely they will maintain as Q1 just because of the 75 and under NET threshold. We whiffed on OSU and Indiana road games opportunities. OSU, Indiana, Nebraska, and PSU are not power houses, very winnable games. You can’t win every road game, but you do have to win some, especially now for RU with the hole they have jumped into that they dug for themselves. Need to cash in on these opportunities that are likely to remain Q1 even until the end of the season. @Northwestern is another winnable Q1 road game ahead for RU, have to cash in, I think Northwestern will stay in top 75. The home games are tougher to remain Q1, as we see with PSU and UCLA wins and the 30 and under NET threshold.
Funny if Penn St had made the football championship game the arena might have been almost empty on Monday.
