THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD

[bac2therac]

Grabbing some of these winnable road games is huge because it’s a road win and more likely they will maintain as Q1 just because of the 75 and under NET threshold. We whiffed on OSU and Indiana road games opportunities. OSU, Indiana, Nebraska, and PSU are not power houses, very winnable games. You can’t win every road game, but you do have to win some, especially now for RU with the hole they have jumped into that they dug for themselves. Need to cash in on these opportunities that are likely to remain Q1 even until the end of the season. @Northwestern is another winnable Q1 road game ahead for RU, have to cash in, I think Northwestern will stay in top 75. The home games are tougher to remain Q1, as we see with PSU and UCLA wins and the 30 and under NET threshold.

id say the situation they put them in makes me feels both road wins are mandatory...given how the 3 home games are all top 20 NET schools and one of them isnt even at the rac

Both PSU and Northwestern have plenty to play for. Beating RU is a must win for them as well as they each are on the outside looking in right now

The Big 10 bubble situation is getting murky now as Iowa is falling off a cliff, Nebby slumping. NW/PSU/Ind not enough meat on the resume and OSU down to 10-8 and thats no bueno. Maryland is sketchy as ****. Rutgers is still one foot in the grave and USC needs a miracle

 

[bac2therac]

Funny if Penn St had made the football championship game the arena might have been almost empty on Monday.

I would think there would have been a push to move that game to Tuesday which could have happened given RU isnt playing until Saturday and Penn State not playing til Friday at Iowa

 

[fatsam98]

With so many people having the day off it should have been an afternoon game

 

[Knight Owl]

With so many people having the day off it should have been an afternoon game

I believe it is a 6pm tip.

 

[RU#1fan]

Best State Penn !
We will be gaining momentum in a getting a Bid.

 

[Knight Owl]

A 10-8 Ohio State maintains a top 40 NET even after a home loss to Indiana…which is their worst loss of the season in a season filled with “good losses.”

 

[bac2therac]

With so many people having the day off it should have been an afternoon game

i think attendance will be really bad as most opt for the national championship game

 

[bac2therac]

A 10-8 Ohio State maintains a top 40 NET even after a home loss to Indiana…which is their worst loss of the season in a season filled with “good losses.”

their numbers nitty gritty are not different than RU except the huge disparity in NET

their profile rests solely on beating Kentucky and Texas...those are huge assets non conference wise, yet in league their best win is rutgers....they are in serious trouble currently and if they dont start stacking quality Big 10 wins soon, they will be out of the picture entirely

3 of their next 4 are on the road starting with Purdue and ending with Illinois...in between the home game vs Iowa and at Penn State are MUST wins

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

their numbers nitty gritty are not different than RU except the huge disparity in NET

their profile rests solely on beating Kentucky and Texas...those are huge assets non conference wise, yet in league their best win is rutgers....they are in serious trouble currently and if they dont start stacking quality Big 10 wins soon, they will be out of the picture entirely

3 of their next 4 are on the road starting with Purdue and ending with Illinois...in between the home game vs Iowa and at Penn State are MUST wins

They also don’t have a loss to a Kennesaw type.

 

[RuSnp]

To highlight how much more we need to do resume-wise - our win was the first blight on the Nebraska resume. It's actually the only loss they have outside of quad 1.

Our loss to Kenn State and their loss to us are both Quad 3 losses - which is sort of jarring.

 

[Knight Owl]

To highlight how much more we need to do resume-wise - our win was the first blight on the Nebraska resume. It's actually the only loss they have outside of quad 1.

Our loss to Kenn State and their loss to us are both Quad 3 losses - which is sort of jarring.

Nebraska had won 20 in a row at home…and had not lost at home since a December 3, 2023 blowout loss to 15th-ranked-at-the-time Creighton.

 

[RuSnp]

ND loses at #159 Cuse by 8.

Columbia loses at home to #81 Yale.

Princeton eeks by #285 Dartmouth by 1.

 

[bac2therac]

ND loses at #159 Cuse by 8.

Columbia loses at home to #81 Yale.

Princeton eeks by #285 Dartmouth by 1.

Yikes

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Seton Hall was shooting FG 1-21 at the 8 minute mark of the first half, 7 points scored.

 

[RuSnp]

Yikes

I think it's probably safe to assume at this point end of year the Princeton loss will likely be Quad 3, the Columbia win is staying Quad 4, and the neutral floor ND win very likely will be Quad 3.

Accepting that now would put us at at 3-6 quad 1 and 2 combined with 2 quad 3 losses.

Bac - is there any historical equivalent for a team similar to where we are at (+80 net as well) at this point in the season that actually made the tourney (save winning a conference tourney)?

 

[RUtrumpet92]

If PSU was in the football final Monday, I was thinking they'd turn it into a watch party site at rhe conclusion of the basketball game for fans/students that couldn't go to the game. They possibly could have tried tipping off an hour earlier to avoid the overlap, rather than moving it to Tuesday.

No matter now.

 

[bac2therac]

NET slips to 85

Penn State is 47

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

NET slips to 85

Penn State is 47

When Seton Hall loses by 30 or so at home to St John's and is 6-12 with 1 conference win in OT over DePaul, the NET ratings are not going to improve.

The resume is going to depend on how the league as a whole performs.

I am not in the bubble watch mode but North Carolina is probably a team with a reputation of excellence, but dropped a home game to Stanford yesterday as a 11 or 12 point favorite. It's the UNC or Ohio States and actually schools like Vanderbilt that have a very strong resume now, but will be taking on losses in the SEC very soon.

I really don't think the number of losses is as much of an issue as it's being made out to be. Certain leagues like the Mountain West and ACC are just frankly not that good and the SEC has Arkansas, South Carolina with zero conference wins and Oklahoma only got their 1st SEC win because they hosted South Carolina. Any ESPN Jor Lunardi brackets will have a SEC bias/favoritism association.

 

[Knight Owl]

Top 7 in the BigTen who currently have winning records in league look to be locks barring any epic meltdowns. I’ll predict that either RU or OSU (both have 10-8 records) will sneak into the Big Dance but not both.

 

[PhillyRU]

I think it's probably safe to assume at this point end of year the Princeton loss will likely be Quad 3, the Columbia win is staying Quad 4, and the neutral floor ND win very likely will be Quad 3.

Accepting that now would put us at at 3-6 quad 1 and 2 combined with 2 quad 3 losses.

Bac - is there any historical equivalent for a team similar to where we are at (+80 net as well) at this point in the season that actually made the tourney (save winning a conference tourney)?

I mean on Jan 18, 2022 Rutgers had a NET of 131 and one Q1 win (Q2s against Michigan and @Maryland)

 

[SirPerceval]

Maryland being at 25 in the NET rankings tells you this is far from perfect. They are mediocre at best - should be about 60.

 

[bac2therac]

early NET update on a Sunday night

Rutgers holds at 85

Penn State remains 47

 

[Knight Owl]

early NET update on a Sunday night

Rutgers holds at 85

Penn State remains 47

PSU favored by 6.5 with points over/under at 157.5.

 

[goru7]

Princeton comes from 12 down to beat Columbia 71-67 and remain in first place in the IVY. They hit 14 threes to save them as they were down the whole game. 2 games on a row they came from behind. Pierce is back and had 21 and 9 rebounds to go along with Lee’s 19. Last game , Lee had 33 including game winning three down 2 with under 5 seconds to go. They are living dangerously but continue to win. Their NET is 117 so hopeful they win out and win the IVY giving them a chance to climb to 100 and become a Quad 2.

 

[bac2therac]

NET rises a notch to 84.

Penn State reamains 47.

 

[darkcheck]

NET rises a notch to 84.

Penn State reamains 47.

Thanks for the update Bac! Need .750 winning percentage in the 12 game season that’s left. Very highly unlikely.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Thanks for the update Bac! Need .750 winning percentage in the 12 game season that’s left. Very highly unlikely.

It’s highly unlikely we would get in with 13 losses considering one of them was to Kennesaw TBH. Honestly - 5 of the remaining 7 games are against teams that it won’t help our resume to beat. At least 3 of the other 7 also won’t end up being better than 6-7 seeds so we simply don’t have enough super win opportunities left to build a 13 loss profile that could overcome Kennesaw IMO.

We’re getting to the point where Auto Bid may be statistically more likely than At Large. Seems like complicated math but perhaps Fluox could run the numbers. Getting hot and winning 4-5 straight on a neutral floor seems easier to me than going 10-2 in a collection of games that includes 6 true road games (3 of which are against ranked opponents), a neutral game against the top team in the conference, and 2 other games at home against ranked teams.

Who is ranked will shuffle as the season goes on of course, but at the end of the day, the structural design of the BIg tournament guarantees that you could not play more than 2 games max against the teams that finish 1-4 in the standings. As I said 4-0 or 5-0 at a neutral venue seems like it might already be an easier feat.

 

[fluoxetine]

It’s highly unlikely we would get in with 13 losses considering one of them was to Kennesaw TBH. Honestly - 5 of the remaining 7 games are against teams that it won’t help our resume to beat. At least 3 of the other 7 also won’t end up being better than 6-7 seeds so we simply don’t have enough super win opportunities left to build a 13 loss profile that could overcome Kennesaw IMO.

We’re getting to the point where Auto Bid may be statistically more likely than At Large. Seems like complicated math but perhaps Fluox could run the numbers. Getting hot and winning 4-5 straight on a neutral floor seems easier to me than going 10-2 in a collection of games that includes 6 true road games (3 of which are against ranked opponents), a neutral game against the top team in the conference, and 2 other games at home against ranked teams.

Who is ranked will shuffle as the season goes on of course, but at the end of the day, the structural design of the BIg tournament guarantees that you could not play more than 2 games max against the teams that finish 1-4 in the standings. As I said 4-0 or 5-0 at a neutral venue seems like it might already be an easier feat.

I still think 18-13 is on the right side of the bubble.

My reason for believing this is:

- The 0 point on WAB for our schedule is 17.32 wins meaning that 18-13 would be +0.68. +0.68 is currently #43 implying an 11 seed.

- If you use teamcast on Bart's website: (https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php...am=&x4_res=&x5_type=&x5_loc=&x5_team=&x5_res=)
Above gives us:
Wins Michigan St., at Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, at Washington, USC, Minnesota
Losses at Maryland, at Oregon, at Michigan, at Purdue

Overall 18-13 (11-9), Q1 5-11, Q2 5-0, Q3 2-2, Q4 6-0

Projects us as the top team in Dayton as a play-in 11 seed.

- Teamrankings (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/rutgers-scarlet-knights/bracketology) gives us a 76.4% chance of making the tourney at 18-13 and 96.1% at 19-12. It gives us a 5.9% chance overall of which only 0.1% comes from the autobid.

I think the teamrankings probabilities make sense.

 

[bac2therac]

I still think 18-13 is on the right side of the bubble.

My reason for believing this is:

- The 0 point on WAB for our schedule is 17.32 wins meaning that 18-13 would be +0.68. +0.68 is currently #43 implying an 11 seed.

- If you use teamcast on Bart's website: (https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php...am=&x4_res=&x5_type=&x5_loc=&x5_team=&x5_res=)
Above gives us:
Wins Michigan St., at Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, at Washington, USC, Minnesota
Losses at Maryland, at Oregon, at Michigan, at Purdue

Overall 18-13 (11-9), Q1 5-11, Q2 5-0, Q3 2-2, Q4 6-0

Projects us as the top team in Dayton as a play-in 11 seed.

- Teamrankings (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/rutgers-scarlet-knights/bracketology) gives us a 76.4% chance of making the tourney at 18-13 and 96.1% at 19-12. It gives us a 5.9% chance overall of which only 0.1% comes from the autobid.

I think the teamrankings probabilities make sense.

huh.....76% based on what...are they doing all the other teams or just treating rutgers in isolation. I wonder what they said for SHU at the end of the regular season last year.

if i am correct about the wab that GRF has posted here, it has more teams wab than actual bids so you cant even use it at this point

good thing computers do not pick


can they make it at 18-13..maybe but every other scenario has to be factored in with other bubble schools...Iowa, nebraska, ohio state, northwestern, indiana, penn state and thats just from the Big 10. Non conference there is absolutely nothing to point to and that is an issue.

Its silly at this point even to look at this scenario and think its actual REALISTIC...what has a 10-9 school with a 1-7 record vs Q1 done to think they are suddenly going to reel off wins vs Michigan State, Michigan Illinois at home, go on the road and beat NW and Washington and then also not slip up at home vs Iowa, USC, and Minnesota. Rutgers is currently 4-9 in Q1/2/3 games. Somehow they are suppose to go 9-4 the rest of the way..lol

I mean look at the schools in the vicinity of RU in the NET right now. You are what you are. RU has a win over UCLA and one over suddenly bubbly Nebraska

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Only 44 teams right now have a WAB above +.5. At 13 losses we would probably be in the Top 45.

 

[RAC93]

I still think 18-13 is on the right side of the bubble.

My reason for believing this is:

- The 0 point on WAB for our schedule is 17.32 wins meaning that 18-13 would be +0.68. +0.68 is currently #43 implying an 11 seed.

- If you use teamcast on Bart's website: (https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php...am=&x4_res=&x5_type=&x5_loc=&x5_team=&x5_res=)
Above gives us:
Wins Michigan St., at Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, at Washington, USC, Minnesota
Losses at Maryland, at Oregon, at Michigan, at Purdue

Overall 18-13 (11-9), Q1 5-11, Q2 5-0, Q3 2-2, Q4 6-0

Projects us as the top team in Dayton as a play-in 11 seed.

- Teamrankings (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/rutgers-scarlet-knights/bracketology) gives us a 76.4% chance of making the tourney at 18-13 and 96.1% at 19-12. It gives us a 5.9% chance overall of which only 0.1% comes from the autobid.

I think the teamrankings probabilities make sense.

This is wild, forget about 76.4% chance and 96.1% chance. There is a zero point zero chance that any of that and those scenarios actually happens. That’s the problem with this team, they have runway left but there is no fuel in the plane to get the plane up in the air. We couldn’t beat PSU playing in their library of a road environment. They are a 16-15 or 15-16 team. Big 10 Conference tourney win or bust at this point.

 

[fluoxetine]

huh.....76% based on what...are they doing all the other teams or just treating rutgers in isolation.

They are doing all the teams. They simulate out the season and then use their model to pick the tournament field. In 76% of the simulations where Rutgers finished with 18 wins their model selected them as a tournament team.

I wonder what they said for SHU at the end of the regular season last year.

According to bracketmatrix TeamRankings had them as a 10 seed and Bart had them out.

if i am correct about the wab that GRF has posted here, it has more teams wab than actual bids so you cant even use it at this point

You can use the ranking, yes being at +0.0 is likely not good enough but as GRF and I mentioned at +0.68 we would likely be in the top 45.

good thing computers do not pick

Why?

can they make it at 18-13..maybe but every other scenario has to be factored in with other bubble schools...Iowa, nebraska, ohio state, northwestern, indiana, penn state and thats just from the Big 10. Non conference there is absolutely nothing to point to and that is an issue.

This is what they do.. look when we actually get to Selection Sunday I would 100% trust you over their models. Those bracket models are fairly mediocre. But they are capable of actually projecting the season out to its finish which is something you can't do in your head. I predict that IF we actually end up at the 18 win mark you'll be changing your tune as you evaluate what is around us.

Its silly at this point even to look at this scenario and think its actual REALISTIC...what has a 10-9 school with a 1-7 record vs Q1 done to think they are suddenly going to reel off wins vs Michigan State, Michigan Illinois at home, go on the road and beat NW and Washington and then also not slip up at home vs Iowa, USC, and Minnesota. Rutgers is currently 4-9 in Q1/2/3 games. Somehow they are suppose to go 9-4 the rest of the way..lol

I mean look at the schools in the vicinity of RU in the NET right now. You are what you are. RU has a win over UCLA and one over suddenly bubbly Nebraska

It's realistic but it isn't likely.

This is wild, forget about 76.4% chance and 96.1% chance. There is a zero point zero chance that any of that and those scenarios actually happens. That’s the problem with this team, they have runway left but there is no fuel in the plane to get the plane up in the air. We couldn’t beat PSU playing in their library of a road environment. They are a 16-15 or 15-16 team. Big 10 Conference tourney win or bust at this point.

It's not evaluating the probability that those scenarios happen, it's evaluating the probability that we make the tournament conditional on the scenario happening.

If we win out, we have a 100% probability of winning the national championship. That statement is correct even though we have a ~zero chance of winning out.

People are not appreciating how hard it is to win five games in a row. Even if you are a coinflip in each game that is a 3.125% chance. When you factor in that most of the teams are better than us and won't have to play five consecutive days it quickly goes towards zero.

Getting hot and going 8-4 or even 9-3 against a tough schedule is much more likely than going 5-0.

 

[bac2therac]

shu was 5-8 in Q1 and 9-11 n Q2 I believe after the sju tourney loss which i guess we dont have to consider so its actually 5-7/9-10, they had a win over UConn which counted as more than one win, win over Marquette who I think was a 3 seed? They had a bad loss to RU at home in Q3 and their best ooc win was Q3 Missouri. Their NET sucked in the low 60s. 20-11 regular season, here is a case of a profile that by all rights should get in but with bid stealers they didnt.

 

[fluoxetine]

shu was 5-8 in Q1 and 9-11 n Q2 I believe after the sju tourney loss which i guess we dont have to consider so its actually 5-7/9-10, they had a win over UConn which counted as more than one win, win over Marquette who I think was a 3 seed? They had a bad loss to RU at home in Q3 and their best ooc win was Q3 Missouri. Their NET sucked in the low 60s. 20-11 regular season, here is a case of a profile that by all rights should get in but with bid stealers they didnt.

Okay but I don't think you should use something you consider a snub as the example.

A 75% chance means 25% of the time it results in NOT getting in, no one is saying it's a lock. We would absolutely be at the mercy of bid stealers and sweating out selection sunday but as of right now I would consider that a huge win.

 

[bac2therac]

its almost getting to that time where i will actually start looking at the bubble in depth. Maybe have a little something for the first of February

 

[bac2therac]

Okay but I don't think you should use something you consider a snub as the example.

A 75% chance means 25% of the time it results in NOT getting in, no one is saying it's a lock. We would absolutely be at the mercy of bid stealers and sweating out selection sunday but as of right now I would consider that a huge win.

to me I think RU needs a big time road win...like at Oregon or at Michigan or at Purdue...trade that one for the win at Northwestern

 

[RUChoppin]

Fluox. Out of curiosity, has there been any evaluation published about how accurate these win/loss projections are at different points of the season?

For example, we know that snow forecast and hurricane modeling gets less accurate the farther out you are from the storm actually hitting. And storm forecasts our counting many more data points than just 20 games of a season. What sort of cone of uncertainty do these projections have?

 

[RuSnp]

They are doing all the teams. They simulate out the season and then use their model to pick the tournament field. In 76% of the simulations where Rutgers finished with 18 wins their model selected them as a tournament team.

According to bracketmatrix TeamRankings had them as a 10 seed and Bart had them out.

You can use the ranking, yes being at +0.0 is likely not good enough but as GRF and I mentioned at +0.68 we would likely be in the top 45.

Why?

This is what they do.. look when we actually get to Selection Sunday I would 100% trust you over their models. Those bracket models are fairly mediocre. But they are capable of actually projecting the season out to its finish which is something you can't do in your head. I predict that IF we actually end up at the 18 win mark you'll be changing your tune as you evaluate what is around us.

It's realistic but it isn't likely.

It's not evaluating the probability that those scenarios happen, it's evaluating the probability that we make the tournament conditional on the scenario happening.

If we win out, we have a 100% probability of winning the national championship. That statement is correct even though we have a ~zero chance of winning out.

People are not appreciating how hard it is to win five games in a row. Even if you are a coinflip in each game that is a 3.125% chance. When you factor in that most of the teams are better than us and won't have to play five consecutive days it quickly goes towards zero.

Getting hot and going 8-4 or even 9-3 against a tough schedule is much more likely than going 5-0.

How about 4-0 or 3-0 though? I said this yesterday - It's time to start rooting heavy for MSU/Mich/Purdue and try to sneak up the standings.

 

[fluoxetine]

Fluox. Out of curiosity, has there been any evaluation published about how accurate these win/loss projections are at different points of the season?

For example, we know that snow forecast and hurricane modeling gets less accurate the farther out you are from the storm actually hitting. And storm forecasts our counting many more data points than just 20 games of a season. What sort of cone of uncertainty do these projections have?

I'm not sure if there has been an evaluation published. Bart, for example, I think clearly doesn't account for this properly and thus does not include enough variance in his projections.

If the "true" standard deviation of a team's performance were 11 points then the standard deviation of the average after 20 games would be ~11/SQRT(20) or about 2.5 points. So going forward your std dev in any particular game would be something like

SQRT(2.5^2 + 2.5^2 + 11^2) = 11.5 points instead of 11.

It's not a huge difference but it's something. But then if you add the fact that teams' ability can change during the season, there might be some streakiness etc, it would go up a bit more.

This is why I think TeamRankings saying we have a 5.8% chance for an at-large bid makes a lot more sense than Bart saying it is 0.2%.

How about 4-0 or 3-0 though? I said this yesterday - It's time to start rooting heavy for MSU/Mich/Purdue and try to sneak up the standings.

In the coinflip case each bye doubles your probability.

So 5 games is 3.125%, 4 games is 6.25%, and 3 is 12.5%. In reality the effect is a bit less since the easier games are the ones that tend to get skipped. Also if we managed to get a double bye somehow I imagine we'd already be in good shape for an at-large.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Okay but I don't think you should use something you consider a snub as the example.

A 75% chance means 25% of the time it results in NOT getting in, no one is saying it's a lock. We would absolutely be at the mercy of bid stealers and sweating out selection sunday but as of right now I would consider that a huge win.

I don’t know how the computer numbers come up with this stuff but it seems very flawed to me. We did not do well out of conference and saying it that way is an understatement. ND is 8-10. SHU is 6-12. These are no better than mediocre mid major wins at best. And we lost to all the good teams along with Kennesaw and Princeton. So that’s first of all.

Then there is the reality that overall the BIG just isn’t that strong this year. One top 10 team total right now. There are 6 ranked teams, one of which would fall out of the rankings for sure with a loss to Rutgers. I’m not sure how 10-8 with what we did non-conference could project to field team. Just not adding up to me.