It appears the SEC is so strong that Alabama and Florida can lose at home to Ole Miss and Missouri and only drop 2 spots. The SEC NET rankings will be ridiculously high this year and almost nothing will happen in conference to change that.
THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Rutgers is 86.
Nebraska is 45.
Columbia slides to 164 and flops back to a Quad 4 win
Nebraska is 45.
Columbia slides to 164 and flops back to a Quad 4 win
Root hard for Hall, Princeton, and Columbia rest of the way
The hole they dug was extremely deep
4-8 vs Q1/2/3 is very problematic in addition to close margins of victories to bad teams
Still it was not rewarded like a big road win. When you are anywhere from 8.5 to 9.5 underdogs and you win the game outright , the jump in any model should be greater than 3 spots. Especially since the Kenpom offensive efficiency in 2 games went from 109 to 113. That is a huge leap. This NET formula is still weird.
Secondary teams losing St. Peter’s , Merrimack hurt I guess but Monmouth and Kennesaw won.
Like I said the NET formula is weird.
Yeah nothing really is going to help thst lose.
Princeton needs to dominae the Ivy in a big way to move to Q2
Columbia is straddling Q3/4. Them moving back to Q3 is big
Well we went up 3 spots in T-Rank as well and like 4 spots in Kenpom? Not really sure what you are expecting.
Just what I said. A 8-9 point underdog winning outright deserves a larger bump. Not even taking into account we broke their 20 game home winning streak. Which is not a component of any model but speaks volumes to how great a win it was.
Exactly what I thought.
Road Q1 win and we only moved 3 spots?!? I thought we would move 5-7 considering where we were.
Those bad losses are enormous anchors. Sigh
Our Kenpom not moving has a lot to do with our porous defense . But our offensive efficiency went from 109 two games ago to 113. Huge jump as we are now 65.
Also Minnesota up to 120 is huge. Now i expect them to likely slide a bit again but them being a Q3 game as opposed to Q4 is a big factor. Have to make sure that q123 mark is above 500. All our games left will be. 4-8 plus 9-4 gets us to 13-12 before any big 10 tournament game. Yes there are exceptions but you want to be 500 or above when all is said and done
It doesn't "deserve" anything; it's just math.
If you look at kenpom for example, we are a +10.22 (after the game). We had already played 17 games or about 1,190 possessions.
So let's say you are +10 for 1,190 possessions and then you perform 12 points better than expected (i.e. win by 3 when you are a 9 point underdog) over ~70 possessions. That's +15.71 points per 100 more than expected i.e. 70 possessions of +25.71 performance.
Now your average is roughly (1190*10 + 70*25.71)/1260 = +10.87.
So your rating increased by 0.87. Here is our current kenpom neighborhood:
Yale +10.48
Wake Forest +10.47
Drake +10.29
Liberty +10.27
Libscomb +10.23
Rutgers +10.22
TCU +9.56
Colorado St +9.54
Washington St +9.02
Bradley +8.89
Butler +8.73
Again this is after the game and you will notice there is somewhat of a gap under us and things are a bit spread out there; so if we were at like +9.4 before the game we would only jump 2 teams there. But another game with the same jump would see us jump like 12 spots up to #71. It depends what the actual ratings are around you and not just your rank.
Huge NET jump 17 places on their home floor with a great buzzer beater. They are the lowest BIG 10 team so that jump was huge to stay a Quad 3 for now but plenty of time left and we do not play them until the last game of the year.
Yep and i believe their one point loss to Ohio State also gave them a decent bump prior
The thing I posted above is also why top ranked teams often don't drop as much as people think they should after losses; the gap between teams is often larger as you get towards the top (or bottom).
For example in Kenpom the difference between #1 and #10 is a whopping 11 rating points which is the same as the difference between us (#83) and #25. So Auburn could lose to a crappy team by 100 and still not drop out of the top 10 most likely.
For example in Kenpom the difference between #1 and #10 is a whopping 11 rating points which is the same as the difference between us (#83) and #25. So Auburn could lose to a crappy team by 100 and still not drop out of the top 10 most likely.
Alabama and Florida lost on their home floors 2 nights ago and only dropped 2 spots in the NET. The NET is especially forgiving any losses inside the SEC.
You have complete control over what play, who gets the ball, what spot on the floor they want it. You absolutely practice every situation that can come up late on games(you should). .
You practice to reduce the “variance” and insure you have the greatest chance of success.
Every single play matters and the decisions made in crucial moments are the difference between winning and losing.. if you don’t believe or understand that ONE play and decisions made for that play are the difference then we fire every coach.
You can sit in the sideline and just give out probability numbers.
Pike had a great game last night but he almost gave away last nights game with 30 secs to go. Awful coaching decision. One play matters!
Just gotta win enough to get on the bubble and hope the committee puts us in because of the star power as a tiebreaker in our favor.
Or... win the B1G tournament and the autobid.
Or... win the B1G tournament and the autobid.
Even if their ranking improves, it will improve our metrics and could help us creep up the NET ranking by a place or two. If they were to go on a tear and move from 184 to 145, that would make that loss slightly better in the metrics and may increase our NET by 1-2 spots. Every little bit helps, lol
best offensive game ever (under Pike and probably past 20 years)
worst defensive game since 2019 vs St Bonnies
Best since 07-08 when Torvik's site starts and it's not even close (adj O 147.2, I don't think there is another one over 140)
Lipscomb and mid and low major teams like them will fall significantly with every future loss.
RU is now #83
Q1: 1-6 / Q2: 3-0 / Q3: 0-2 / Q4: 6-0
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
8 - (N)Alabama (L)
14 - Purdue (L)
20 - (N)Texas A&M (L)
23 - Wisconsin (L)
29 - @OSU (L)
50 - @Nebraska (W)
62 - @Indiana (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
37 - UCLA (W)
48 - PSU (W)
89 - (N)Notre Dame (W)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
117 - (N)Princeton (L)
184 - @Kennesaw St (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
163 - Columbia (W)
177 - SHU (W)
189 - Merrimack (W)
252 - St. Peters (W)
262 - Monmouth (W)
340 - Wagner (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
7 - Illinois
14 - @Purdue
15 - @Michigan
15 - Michigan
17 - MSU (at MSG)
21 - @Oregon
25- @Maryland
50 - @PSU
55 - @Northwestern
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
49 - Iowa
73 - USC
96 - @Washington
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
120 - Minnesota
Notes:
- USC Q2 for now
- Columbia trying to claw back to Q3
- 9 more Q1 opportunities, only 2 at the RAC
Q1: 1-6 / Q2: 3-0 / Q3: 0-2 / Q4: 6-0
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
8 - (N)Alabama (L)
14 - Purdue (L)
20 - (N)Texas A&M (L)
23 - Wisconsin (L)
29 - @OSU (L)
50 - @Nebraska (W)
62 - @Indiana (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
37 - UCLA (W)
48 - PSU (W)
89 - (N)Notre Dame (W)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
117 - (N)Princeton (L)
184 - @Kennesaw St (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
163 - Columbia (W)
177 - SHU (W)
189 - Merrimack (W)
252 - St. Peters (W)
262 - Monmouth (W)
340 - Wagner (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
7 - Illinois
14 - @Purdue
15 - @Michigan
15 - Michigan
17 - MSU (at MSG)
21 - @Oregon
25- @Maryland
50 - @PSU
55 - @Northwestern
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
49 - Iowa
73 - USC
96 - @Washington
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
120 - Minnesota
Notes:
- USC Q2 for now
- Columbia trying to claw back to Q3
- 9 more Q1 opportunities, only 2 at the RAC
184 Kennesaw St
Q2 135<- +49<- 184 -> -57-> 241 Q4
3 Q2s, @ 128 NMSt, @ 84 Liberty, @ 126 La Tech
10 Q3s,
1 Q4, vs 236 FIU
Other team, 136 UTEP, 141 WKU, 101 M Tennessee, 153 Jacksonville St, 181 Sam Houston
The Conference isn't bad. They will win most of their home games(5-0), they have to win a few on the road(1-5) and no blowout losses to get near 135.
Q2 135<- +49<- 184 -> -57-> 241 Q4
3 Q2s, @ 128 NMSt, @ 84 Liberty, @ 126 La Tech
10 Q3s,
1 Q4, vs 236 FIU
Other team, 136 UTEP, 141 WKU, 101 M Tennessee, 153 Jacksonville St, 181 Sam Houston
The Conference isn't bad. They will win most of their home games(5-0), they have to win a few on the road(1-5) and no blowout losses to get near 135.
Looks like the 2020 game against Illinois was the next highest at 137.3. That was the Young and Harper show (24 and 28 points), Miles Johnson pulled in 6 ORB against Kofi Cockburn, and they had a 58.1% FT rate. Illinois was an elite defensive team (8th) which led to a 13 point adjustment.
The most Rutgers thing ever would be turning this season around, going 8-4 and then playing Minnesota last game in a must win game and losing that game……I have seen that movie before. In all honesty, I might take that scenario as we would at least be watching meaningful basketball the rest of the way.
@ Mich, @Oregon and @ Purdue are the 3 we’d all say are most certain losses, but a win at any of those will really push the needle
The Seton Hall win by just 3 and missing a ton of FTs AND Seton Hall being 6-11, with very little signs of improvement, might hold the NET ratings down.
Road opportunities are littered all over the schedule. Maryland, Northwestern, Washington are road games that if you want to steal into the win column, would help the metrics. Those 3 games mixed with a Nebraska road win, could help offset the Harper absence at Indiana and not close to 100% vs Wisconsin and Purdue.
A little late to this discussion. I was also surprised to see Minnesota get a 17 spot jump but RU only gets a 3 spot jump.
Columbia is 3 spots away from being Q3. They need to go on a run. Meanwhile, RU needs to follow up their best win of the season with another huge road W on Monday to get closer out of the grave. Big opportunity against a team that has lost 4 straight but will definitely show up to play us.
Columbia is 3 spots away from being Q3. They need to go on a run. Meanwhile, RU needs to follow up their best win of the season with another huge road W on Monday to get closer out of the grave. Big opportunity against a team that has lost 4 straight but will definitely show up to play us.
