if we had beaten kennesaw state and princeton we’d be on the bubble rn. love that our NET is improving but it won’t matter unless we get to at least 19 wins. 8 out of the last 10 is the minimum requirement now.
THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Rutgers is currently 1-6 vs teams projected in the NCAA tourney and have 6 more games left vs NCAA projected schools. 4 of them on the road.
Rutgers will need to take care of 4 lessers while beating 4 of the NCAA teams
Nothing short of 8-2 has them seriously on the bubble
18-13 wont cut it because of the dearth of big wins. Not making the tourney with only 4 wins vs teams in the field
Quad 1 wins are important but neither of RUs Quad 1 road wins were against tourney teams.
Rutgers will need to take care of 4 lessers while beating 4 of the NCAA teams
Nothing short of 8-2 has them seriously on the bubble
18-13 wont cut it because of the dearth of big wins. Not making the tourney with only 4 wins vs teams in the field
Quad 1 wins are important but neither of RUs Quad 1 road wins were against tourney teams.
It's nice to see discussion about what has to happen to make the NCAAs, but that ship has sailed for me. I know most will say this is dumb/irrelevant but I'd love it if this team can continue to raise it's NET rating and grab an NIT bid. Then with a healthy team (minus Ogbole), win the damn thing like SHU did last year. For me, it would be a nice consolation prize. And with the dearth of any kind of championships in RU history, it would make this season more than an abject failure.
In this regard, last night was a huge win. It greatly helps our chances of staying out of the bottom 3.
In this regard, last night was a huge win. It greatly helps our chances of staying out of the bottom 3.
Ace and Dylan are not risking injury to play in the NIT!
Isn't the window for making the NIT very narrow anyway? Like if x wins puts us in the NCAA, x-1 gets the NIT, and x-2 gets nothing? Might as well just hope for NCAA lol
It’s kind of crazy to me that some are still talking about what needs to be done for the NCAAs and making excuses for how we are a good team and excusing our 11-10/4-6 record. If they were to beat Michigan AND Illinois, then that will awaken my interest in this group making a run for the NCAAs. Right now, it’s a total nonstarter. Nice win last night, good to win and they played well, but let’s be realistic as to the level of the opponent they beat and how this team struggles to maintain consistent and quality level of play over multiple games.
I get it you have checked out but your demeaning our wins is just not the way to go. Nebraska had a 20 game winning streak when we beat them and the team played a very good game. Northwestern was 10-1 at home and desperate for a win to keep their faint NCAA hopes alive.
This team mostly of freshman have gone on the road and won 2-3 and probably should have been 3-3 if Dylan doesn’t turn his ankle.
There are a lot of reasons this season has not gone as we all planned. But to shit on the team when they haven’t given up yet, is rich.
Nah, NIT is even further down the pecking order now with the new Fox Vegas tournament. They'll get first crack at B1G leftovers
would rather we play in the fox tourney, believe there are NIL incentives attached
I disagree with this….if we are 18-13….we are looking at being 11-11 in quad 1 and 2 games. (6-3 down the stretch plus minny)….get one in your massively on the bubble at 19-14 and 12-12 in quad 1/2.
But I’m not going to go in depth on thjs yet …waaaaay too much basketball on the court
Just keep winning ..and hopefully , it will be relevant to revisit this when we come home From the west coast after our next 6
Interesting tidbit....only looking at bart so other places that could be better could have different results....
Only 53 teams right now with positive WAB...
7-3 would put us somewhere between +.5 to +1.0
NCAA didn't add that metric for fun.
Only 53 teams right now with positive WAB...
7-3 would put us somewhere between +.5 to +1.0
NCAA didn't add that metric for fun.
Hoping the NCAA would consider us as a last 4 in so that we can win the first game and play against #1 seed Duke. (If we play well down the stretch) Cooper Flagg versus Dylan and Ace would be awesome for TV ratings.
Last edited:
Don't know how the 2nd half of conference play will go, but so far we 15-20 really good teams that are winning a lot of games. Which could end up making the bubble very weak.
Well they didn't care about Mag, that was for sure.
Not shitting on the team, literally said it was a nice win last night. The one thing that has hurt this team dearly this year is lack of consistent and quality play over a stretch of games. Let’s see them go out and play consistent and good basketball against Michigan and Illinois and actually win, not play them tough, not walk away with a moral victory, but stack 2 wins to go with this one (3 in a row) and then I will come around to the possibility of them being able to go on a run. We beat a team that is 2-6 in their last 8 games and 3-7 in the conference, any road win is a good win but it should not be overblown into a high quality win against someone like Purdue. NWestern may not make the conference tournament themselves so let’s just keep this win in perspective, see how this group builds off this win and see if they can carry over some things tot he Michigan and Illinois games. Seems reasonable.
Last edited:
I just dont think wins over Illinois, Michigan, UCLA and perhaps at say Oregon is enough for a strong ncaa case at 18-13 with nothing OOC to point to and a bad loss and a sub 500 Q1/2/3 at 12-13
RU would be 5-11 in Q1 and 6-0 in Q2 which would be strong (assuming ND, Iowa, USC remain there)
a thing to watch is because of 2 conferences having all their games in the top 100 and another about 85%, those Q1/2 totals are going to be bulky across the board. Getting Q1 road wins over the likes of NW and Nebby dont mean so much when they are not tourney teams and a few schools have them.
Indiana is another school similar to Rutgers light on quality wins....they have a win at Ohio State and nothing ooc of note. Indiana who has an incredibly difficult 6 game stretch coming up yet at 14-7/5-5 would still be considered to have a better shot than RU if the Hoosiers can get to 19-12/10-10 by splitting their next 10.
Key thing here...Indiana is 10-7 right now in Q1/2/3 and RU is 5-10....at some point you have to put realism into the picture. Indiana could end up 4-12 in Q1, 6-0 in Q2 but being 5-0 in Q3 puts them at 15-12 in Q1/2/3 which is a big advantage over RU. Indianas big wins would be Michigan, UCLA, at Ohio State, Ohio State. Again like RU sort of on the week side but with better metrics than RU across the board and having NO bad loss.
These are the issues that Rutgers faces at 18-13...there will be a slew of power 5 conference schools with similar marks who have cleaner profiles. Have to take into consideration the entire landscape and not just RU. The Kennesaw State loss is looming incredibly large right now.
As for Big 10 tourney games...they do not factor in, see every school the past few years who made runs to the semis or finals and didnt get in.
Going to finally delve into bracketology for next week so I will have some more thoughts on this
I disagree. First off, it's clear they LOVE playing. Especially Ace. I don't think he will pass up an opportunity to play. Secondly, unlike Mawot Mag, they haven't shown any propensity to sustain a major injury. Anything that happens to them should be healed for next season. And while these guys likely would be starters in the NBA, they are being picked more for their future value than what they can give a team next November.
Glad you brought this up. A couple years ago the selection committee held us out in part because of Mag’s injury (it was stated by the head of the committee).
So Dylan’s injury should be considered, imo, if we finish at 18 regular season wins and then get two more wins in the B1G tourney.
bac,
you havent done your ncaa anaylsis right now and you shouldn't. Also conference season is just at the half way point (actually less for most). Given that in each conference there are 1-3 teams beating everyone I think your bubble would be VERY WEAK. The top 20-30ish teams may be VERY STRONG
you havent done your ncaa anaylsis right now and you shouldn't. Also conference season is just at the half way point (actually less for most). Given that in each conference there are 1-3 teams beating everyone I think your bubble would be VERY WEAK. The top 20-30ish teams may be VERY STRONG
some consideration but if the player hasnt recovered to his prior performance level, forgetaboutit
Man, where have I been? I had no idea about this Fox/Vegas Tournament. That's interesting. Not sure if this or the NIT is a better option for RU, should we be in play for both? Based on just reading who is getting invited, it seems like the competition would be tougher in Fox/Vegas.
next week, if RU was legit this season, then yes I would have started it this week.
last year the bubble was pretty weak and then all of sudden conference tourney week it got real crowded. I expect major consolidation around the power 3...big east, acc 4, mwc 3, wcc, 2 and 1 from the rest
Exactly. So if we’re on the bubble and Dylan will play, then we should definitely get in, right?
if he doesn't all this conversation is moot....
Last night was a pipe dream.
For us to be where we need to be both on O and D it is essentially Dylan is back and plays at a high level.
It’s mostly frosh because Pike struck out with portal gets. It’s not like he’s a victim. I’ll tell you what, this season is lost in terms of ncaa. If Pike wants to be good again retain Lathan, Grant and Dortch.
you expect it...it normally happens...but so far power is concentrated to the top.
Auburn and Alabama could go 16-2 and maybe FL and another team go 12-6 and the rest of the conference is in the 7-11 ballpark
MSU, PUR and MI can go 16-4 and everyone else is fighting for 8-12
HOU, ARI, Iowa state the same
So far it is kind of happening
In 2018 I know the B1G was weak, but they only got 4 teams in.
Michigan State 16-2
Purdue 15-3
Ohio State 15-3
What if this happen to all 3 power conferences. Long shot, but so far it is happening
Michigan State 16-2
Purdue 15-3
Ohio State 15-3
What if this happen to all 3 power conferences. Long shot, but so far it is happening
North Carolina 13-9 and just 1-8 in Q1 is going to have a hard time getting in. Net is 41 and sos stuff is very very strong but their best win is neutral site UCLA, there are wins over bubble SMU and fading Dayton. They have 4 Q1 games left and are going to need to win 3 of them.....Duke, Pitt, at Clemson..the other is at Duke. If they do that and maybe only have another slip up in Q3 they will get in but tough otherwise....even that puts them at 4-9 in Q1. Their only other game of note is a Q2 at Florida State so a win there puts them 5-1 in Q2 and 10-10 overall
not a great resume at all but here is another case that a team with just 4 wins vs teams in the field would get in over Rutgers for many reasons
not a great resume at all but here is another case that a team with just 4 wins vs teams in the field would get in over Rutgers for many reasons
there will be sub 500 sec schools getting in yes like texas or a georgia at 8-10 maybe even 7-11 depending on ooc stuff although that is unlikely
no...not if Dylan comes back and cannot shake off the injury returning to prior form
there is no definitely, dont assume rutgers wins those games...the committee can say well even with him they lost to Kennesaw and Princeton
Lathan, Grant, Dortch, Ogbole, JWill, JMike, Derkack. There’s something to be said about consistency. If any of those leave, we have to find portal guys who are better than them.
Until we win enough games to legitimately get back in the bubble conversation, the realistic goal for this team is finishing 9th in the B1G standings. That would get us a single bye in the BTT and give us a better chance of making a run to the championship. Winning 4 games in a row is slightly more doable than 5 games in a row.
last year I didnt do my first analysis until Feb 12 so I actually may not be doing stuff next week after all.
here is what I wrote about surging Rutgers beat Wisconsin and at 13-10/5-7 was fooling the crowd here
- RUTGERS: Somehow someway, the Scarlet Knights have emerged as the Zombie profile of 2024. The win over Wisconsin is their only one in Quad 1 (1-8) as their non conference win over SHU has slipped to Q2 for now. There is a solid Q2 win over Nebraska. Yet this profile is so incomplete. There is no denying that the introduction of Jeremiah Williams to this team has improved this team several rungs as they have run off 3 straight. Yet its resume is all about potential. It could work if....but that if has almost no margin of error. The Knights absolutely have to win at home over Northwesten to keep dreaming big dreams. They will need to stack Q3 home games vs mediocre Maryland, Michigan and likely Q3 by then Ohio State. RU will need to win at Minnesota and either Wisconin/Nebraska. No they do not have to win at Purdue but it would be nice. If the Knights can go 6-2 down the stretch it would put them at 19-12 with a NET somewhere maybe 60-65 and they will have a shot. On the bubble the selection committee will consider Jeremiah in the lineup for the last 11. Also do not forget the early season games so no Mag (Princeton/Wake) so that may be considered. I worry about the 2-10 possibility in Q1. It would be helped by a 7-1 in Q2 and 4-1 in Q3. That puts the 13-12 in Q1/2/3. The non conference sos will not be an issue because its around 163. They will have 5 road wins. So a few things that normally do not work in RU's favor are working in their favor. Long way to go. One game at a time.
so basically...beat Michigan, beat Illinois and then we will talk otherwise this is total pipe dream stuff
Two bad losses by a combined 3 points. Haunting...but same shit different year, really.
