Weather for MD @ RU - Very Likely Chilly (highs in the low 40s) and Dry

[RU848789]

The models have been literally all over the map for this Saturday for the past day or two and that continued with today's 12Z models, as they're having difficulty resolving the evolution of a cut-off low possibly approaching our area on Saturday. Some runs show a gorgeous day, some show a mixed bag of sun and showers and some show a howling rainstorm. The NWS forecast says, partly sunny with a high of 49F (52/33F is normal for 11/25) and a 30 percent chance of rain, as they're hedging their bets due to the high uncertainty. Below is what they said earlier today about the setup/forecast. We're simply going to have to wait a few days (at least) before gaining confidence in the forecast. Would be nice to have a nice day for the last game of the season - and it would be nice to get to 7 wins...

Also, looks like a pretty good rainstorm for the region on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with 1-2" of rain likely and possibly some high winds. Fortunately, things clear out by Wednesday afternoon and Thanksgiving looks to be cool (highs in the mid-40s), but nice.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

Saturday: A mid and upper level low that is expected to cutoff (at
least temporarily) over northern Mexico may slowly start progressing
northeastward Thursday into Friday. Consequently, many models are
depicting a low developing over the northern Gulf or Deep south and
then lifting into the Mid Atlantic by Saturday. This could mean
another chance for widespread precipitation to our region. However,
cutoff lows are notoriously hard to model dissipating or becoming
progressive. Consequently have stayed with the NBM through this
period, and kept PoP at most 30 - 40 percent.

 

[T2Kplus20]

"No Idea Yet"
So then why post? Oh yeah, you desperately need to be first to start the thread for attention. Got it.

 

[RUTGERS95]

"No Idea Yet"
So then why post? Oh yeah, you desperately need to be first to start the thread for attention. Got it.

ok that's funny but, to be fair and every long standing member knows how much numbers and I have gone at each other, his weather updates are good and many look forward to them. they are good and I like them

so while funny, I'm giving numbers the benefit of the doubt

 

[RUPete]

Yeah, about a week out so someone will ask anyway. Might as well start the thread.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Had a feeling this was going to be your update. Well, as they say, "fingers crossed!"

 

[newell138]

Weather will happen. Lock it up!

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

The forecast is a half empty stadium imo with Students on break and the team basically locked into the Yankee Bowl

 

[RU89]

For the life of me I never understand why people get so goddamn worked up about numbers weather threads.................they are easy to identify by the title, so if they annoy you.....NEVER OPEN ANOTHER FU*#$KING ONE OF THEM AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DJ Spanky]

The forecast is a half empty stadium imo with Students on break and the team basically locked into the Yankee Bowl

Damnit will you get it right? It's the Pimpstink Bowl in the Steinbrenner Memorial Whorehouse!

 

[RU848789]

For the life of me I never understand why people get so goddamn worked up about numbers weather threads.................they are easy to identify by the title, so if they annoy you.....NEVER OPEN ANOTHER FU*#$KING ONE OF THEM AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The combination of a high troll level and lack of moderation are what often makes these threads such a mess. I've gotten much better at ignoring the nonsense until the event (game, storm, whatever) is over.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

 

[AM ClocksPF]

The combination of a high troll level and lack of moderation are what often makes these threads such a mess. I've gotten much better at ignoring the nonsense until the event (game, storm, whatever) is over.

I appreciate your insights.

Any updates for Saturday?

 

[RU848789]

I appreciate your insights.

Any updates for Saturday?

Thanks. Last night's model runs were much better with the storm staying to our south, mostly, but we'd need to see this consistently over the next few model cycles before having any confidence in a dry forecast for Saturday, as this setup is highly uncertain (which is why we've seen such variance in the model runs within a cycle and from cycle to cycle).

 

[Knight Shift]

The combination of a high troll level and lack of moderation are what often makes these threads such a mess. I've gotten much better at ignoring the nonsense until the event (game, storm, whatever) is over.

#KeepChopping!!!
Ignore the pricks. You only feed them what they want with responses/comments. Most of them live unfulfilled, meaningless lives and one of their joys in their pathetic lives is being internet trolls.

 

[RUPete]

Thanks. Last night's model runs were much better with the storm staying to our south, mostly, but we'd need to see this consistently over the next few model cycles before having any confidence in a dry forecast for Saturday, as this setup is highly uncertain (which is why we've seen such variance in the model runs within a cycle and from cycle to cycle).

Do we need that mess to clear out on Wednesday before the models can give us a better picture for Saturday?

 

[RUfooty]

"No Idea Yet"
So then why post? Oh yeah, you desperately need to be first to start the thread for attention. Got it.

Love this guy's posts. Knowledgeable, informative, balanced. I only wish had gotten to meet him at the Penn State game where it was like one red shirt to every 20k Penn State fans. My only question was where were the guys that post all day long?

 

[RU848789]

All of today’s global models showed the potential storm staying to our south on Saturday. Not ready to declare victory for a cool/dry day, but it’s at least a good step. The NWS acknowledged this in their discussion, below, but given the model fluctuations they've seen so far, they're still hedging a bit and holding onto a slight (20%) chance of some showers on Saturday vs. the 40-50% chance they were carrying last night/this morning. I'd say if the next 2-3 model cycles maintain a dry forecast, then we can start having more confidence in a dry forecast (i.e., by tomorrow afternoon/evening).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

For Friday and Saturday...Our sensible weather will depend on the
timing and strength of southern stream shortwave as it lifts
northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley
during Friday. The model guidance has gone back and forth with this
and also the southern extent of the Canadian upper-level trough.
While some uncertainty still remains, the overall trend in the
guidance is for a much weaker system coming out of southern Texas.
This would result in just a cold front crossing our area mainly
Friday night. Given the trends but with still some uncertainty, did
lower the PoPs but kept a slight chance (20 percent) in the gridded
forecast database Friday night into Saturday. The main upper-level
trough may glance our area to start Saturday, however that should
push the cold front well east and south of our region. If this ends
up occurring, then a dry Saturday looks to occur. High temperatures
are trending cooler given the passage of the cold front, especially
for Saturday.

 

[bac2therac]

It gone be cold...take it to the bank

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

It gone be cold...take it to the bank

Will feel like the 20s in the 2nd half.

 

[RU848789]

It gone be cold...take it to the bank

Mid-40s during the 12-4 pm timeframe with sunshine is not "cold" at least not to me. That's what we just had at PSU (with ~5-10 mph winds, which is likely what we'll have on Saturday) and I was fine in a t-shirt and windbreaker with jeans. Will get pretty chilly after sunset and into the 2nd half with temps likely dropping into the upper 30s and wind chills into the low 30s.

Of course, this all assumes we have a dry forecast, which is definitely not a lock yet - add in some showers/rain and temps like these and some wind and it'll be pretty miserable.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

 

[T2Kplus20]

So, the weekend after Thanksgiving will be "cold". LOL! Great forecast.

 

[bac2therac]

Mid-40s during the 12-4 pm timeframe with sunshine is not "cold" at least not to me. That's what we just had at PSU (with ~5-10 mph winds, which is likely what we'll have on Saturday) and I was fine in a t-shirt and windbreaker with jeans. Will get pretty chilly after sunset and into the 2nd half with temps likely dropping into the upper 30s and wind chills into the low 30s.

Of course, this all assumes we have a dry forecast, which is definitely not a lock yet - add in some showers/rain and temps like these and some wind and it'll be pretty miserable.

lmfao....sorry but mid 40s at best and the game is at 330 pm not noon is cold for 99% of people.....wear your sleeveless and shorts...by end of the first quarter it will be 40 at best and 30s for most of the game...that is called cold

But we already knew you are that special 1%

 

[bac2therac]

By the way the high predicted of 47 in New Brunswick would make it the coldest day of the season and coldest since March 25

 

[RU848789]

lmfao....sorry but mid 40s at best and the game is at 330 pm not noon is cold for 99% of people.....wear your sleeveless and shorts...by end of the first quarter it will be 40 at best and 30s for most of the game...that is called cold

But we already knew you are that special 1%

Mid-40s is only cold for old ladies and little girls with ringlets in their hair. And you, I guess. Also, if the forecast is correct, it won't go below 40F until 6-7 pm.

 

[bac2therac]

arent we a tough guy

 

[bac2therac]

yeah those temps graphs are always right....i am suppose to be 35 right now but instead am 31

 

[RU848789]

arent we a tough guy

Not really, but c'mon, it's kind of wussy to think mid-40s is cold (unless it's pretty windy and/or rainy). What do you call mid-20s when you're plowing?

 

[RU848789]

yeah those temps graphs are always right....i am suppose to be 35 right now but instead am 31

It might not be right, but it's a good guess at this point. Some models are showing highs only around 40F, but even that isn't "cold" for most folks. Twitter polls certainly aren't definitive, but I think this one is probably a decent assessment of what people think is "cold." I would also be in the under 20F camp, but can understand the 21-40F camp - but not the mid-40s.

 

[e5fdny]

Not really, but c'mon, it's kind of wussy to think mid-40s is cold (unless it's pretty windy and/or rainy). What do you call mid-20s when you're plowing?

Really cold?

 

[T2Kplus20]

lmfao....sorry but mid 40s at best and the game is at 330 pm not noon is cold for 99% of people.....wear your sleeveless and shorts...by end of the first quarter it will be 40 at best and 30s for most of the game...that is called cold

But we already knew you are that special 1%

Great post. Concise and actionable! This is why Bac is the Official TKR Weather Expert.

 

[bac2therac]

It might not be right, but it's a good guess at this point. Some models are showing highs only around 40F, but even that isn't "cold" for most folks. Twitter polls certainly aren't definitive, but I think this one is probably a decent assessment of what people think is "cold." I would also be in the under 20F camp, but can understand the 21-40F camp - but not the mid-40s.

lol...you do realize its November and its been fairly mild this fall and we are talking about people being outside for 7 hours....but you be your selfish self

 

[bac2therac]

if you want me to post some twitter polls, I got some twitter polls for ya

 

[AreYouNUTS]

It gone be cold...take it to the bank

You were cold when it was in the upper 60's!!!

 

[AreYouNUTS]

By the way the high predicted of 47 in New Brunswick would make it the coldest day of the season and coldest since March 25

You're acting like it's gonna be a high of 27. Com'on man!

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Great post. Concise and actionable! This is why Bac is the Official TKR Weather Expert.

So true.

 

[Shelby65]

Shelby maintains with steadfast and resolve that #’s forecast is wrong; rt.22 to I 78 is faster to the state line than I 287 to I 78 from Hillsborough. Isn’t this really what this thread is about, albeit in code ?

 

[bac2therac]

You were cold when it was in the upper 60's!!!

In September yes

 

[bac2therac]

You're acting like it's gonna be a high of 27. Com'on man!

Are you wearing your tuxedo