Weather for Spring Game/Rutgers Day: Cloudy/Cool w/Showers/Rain Possible

[RU848789]

Hopefully, this thread isn't "useless" lol. Weather is looking a bit threatening for Saturday, although uncertainty on the northern extent and amount of any rain from a low pressure system likely to be off the NC coast is pretty high, so we could see anything from just cloudy/cool conditions (with highs around 60F; cloudy and cool is just about a lock for Saturday) to some occasional light showers (but not a washout) to a significant rain event (washout with 1/2" of rain or more) for much of the day into the evening. Let's hope for the first choice; the NWS discussion is below. Large variation in the major global models on this, which is not unexpected 5 days out. Stay tuned - this could be one of those days where we don't have a good handle on the forecast until 1-2 days before the event.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Would really suck if it's rainy, as this is one of my favorite days of the year, as I've been going to Ag-Field Day (now part of Rutgers Day all over the campuses) since the early 80s - and with my wife since the late 80s when we started dating (and our son, when he was young through the early 2000s). The NJ Folk Festival is always fun and the food trucks usually offer up some good options, plus there's all kinds of arts and crafts vendors, plus the rest of Cook campus has areas where there are plants for sale and the farms are open with all the farm animals, which is always fun for the kids. I haven't wandered around to the other campuses, but I hear there's fun stuff there too. And it's even better now with the RU Spring game thrown in late in the day...plus it's another Melody Reunion Saturday night at the Elks in NB for anyone who is interested (no age limit on this one).

https://newbrunswick.rutgers.edu/rutgers-day

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
950 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid level ridge axis is forecast to pass off the East Coast
on Thursday and Thursday night. A long wave mid level trough is
expected to deepen over the Mississippi River Valley on Friday
and Saturday. A short wave rounding the base of the trough may
lift from the southeastern states toward the Middle Atlantic
states on Sunday.

Surface high pressure passing to our north should keep
conditions mainly dry for Thursday and Thursday night along with
slightly below normal temperatures.

Some rain may begin to spread into our region from the south
for Friday and Friday night as the surface high retreats and as
low pressure passes off the North Carolina Coast. We will
continue to mention a chance of rain for Saturday as we are
between weather systems. An increasing chance of rain is
anticipated on Sunday as the short wave and an accompanying
surface low approach from the southwest.

Temperatures are expected to remain generally a bit below
normal through the period from Friday through Sunday.

 

[RU848789]

Still looking pretty iffy for Saturday, with the global models all showing some rain on Saturday, except for the GFS (which has rain nearby). The best hope is that there is a round of rain Friday into Saturday morning and then possibly a cloudy, cool (temps in the mid 50s), and breezy break for ~12 hours (with little rain) and then a second round of rain from late Saturday through Sunday, but that's really threading the needle. Could very easily be a fairly raw day with periods of light to moderate rain - still too early to call, though. Good discussion this afternoon from the NWS-Philly.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A prolonged period of unsettled weather will be on tap for the
Long Term period. There are some timing and placement
differences among the models, and there is time for these
differences to be settled.

High pressure continues to depart on Friday. Meanwhile, a warm
front associated with developing low pressure to the south will
lift into the region, and some rain will develop Friday morning.
Rain should increase throughout the day and into Friday evening
as low pressure lifts to the north and east. A deep upper
trough then digs into the north-central U.S. and several weak
waves of low pressure will pass through the region Sunday before
a stronger and more developed area of low pressure that will
lift along the coast Sunday night through Monday, bringing a
beneficial rainfall to the region. It appears there will be 2
main rounds of rain over the weekend. The first will be late
Friday through early Saturday and the second will be Sunday and
Sunday night, possibly lingering into Monday. A few
thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening with the
passage of the low.

There still remains a large degree of uncertainty in the timing
of the periods of rain at this time, so the PoP forecast was
updated with a blend of models. A strengthening east to
northeast pressure gradient Friday through Sunday will result in
breezy conditions and also the potential for drizzle and fog.
Winds will increase to around 15-25 mph with stronger gusts
possible.

Temperatures are expected to remain generally a bit below
normal through the period from Friday through Monday.
Conditions will begin to dry out by late Monday.

 

[RU4Real]

I hate that the weather sucks for the spring game, more often than not. I really want to go this year, but if it's 50something and raining I just don't think I can get ginned up for it.

 

[rurichdog]

This weather is approaching "blows" territory.

 

[bac2therac]

Even if its not raining the entire day. Its not going to be pleasant

 

[RU848789]

Really challenging forecast, still. It's almost a given that the entire region is going to get significant rainfall (1" or more) from Friday afternoon through mid-morning Saturday, but the models diverge significantly after that, with some showing occasional showers (some moderate to heavy) in CNJ through the Spring game (with 1/4-1/2" of rain in the afternoon), but others showing showers becoming scattered and light after mid-morning with some possibility of only seeing 0.1" of rain or less from 3-6 pm (spring game).

The rainy scenario would be a washout through the spring game (and for most Rutgers Day activities that don't get moved indoors, like much of Ag-Field Day), while the latter scenario would at least make the afternoon and spring game not brutal, although even with little rain, temps are expected to be in the mid-50s and winds in the 15-20 mph range with gusts to 30-35 mph, so it won't be pleasant. Too early to call the outcome on this, ~2 days out. By the way, there's no scenario where the spring game gets cancelled, since no t-storms are expected - it's rain or shine otherwise.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

https://www.rutgers.edu/news/looks-...campaign=rutgerstoday&utm_content=Campus Life

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday morning, the primary surface low will have occluded over
the Great Lakes as secondary surface low will be over the Delmarva.
The secondary low should track off the coast by early afternoon to
the south of Long Island, before moving further out to sea Saturday
night.

Thus, the progression of rain during the day on Saturday largely
remains unchanged, except there is greater confidence for areas to
the south to be completely dry Saturday afternoon. Still expect
residual shower chances to linger through Saturday morning for all
areas. Short-range guidance indicates there may be enough wrap-
around moisture trapped at low levels, that areas along the
coast of Monmouth/Ocean Counties and Northern NJ, should see
light shower activity linger during the afternoon where up to an
additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain can be expected. Otherwise,
south of the I-78 corridor in PA and I-195 corridor in NJ, have
kept a chance of showers, with only a slight chance over E MD
and DE, with amounts generally less than 1/4 of an inch.

As the low exits the area, winds are anticipated to relax as the
pressure gradient behind the secondary low weakens. Expect NE-E
winds of 15-25mph sustained with localized gusts up to 30-35mph
early, lowering throughout the afternoon and into the evening.
Saturday night still appears to be relatively dry, although the next
system will be quickly approaching from the south so have kept rain
chances in the forecast.

There will be a wide-range of temperatures across our area on
Saturday. In the areas of NE PA & N NJ where rain lingers, highs
will be limited to the upper 40s to mid 50s as a damp and dreary day
is in store. For the rest of the area where drying is to occur
during the afternoon, highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s
with potentially low 70s reaching into S DE.

 

[RU848789]

It's looking more likely that we'll have moderate to heavy rain through late morning (with over 1" of rain from now until then), but that precip will diminish for the afternoon into the evening with some light rain and drizzle likely, but perhaps only about 0.1-0.2" of rain during the 2-6 pm spring game period. With temps in the low/mid 50s and ~15 mph winds, it'll still be raw and sitting under the overhangs will likely be recommended (probably easy with a small crowd likely), but it likely won't be a complete washout and almost certainly won't be as bad as tonight and tomorrow morning. So we got that goin' for us.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
324 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

For Saturday, there is a pause in the wet weather between the two
systems (near term and short term), but clouds and a cool wind will
be over most areas much of the day. Any breaks would be across
Delmarva probably during the afternoon. After morning rains end (NE)
we`ll only have a low chance for some showers for the area. Highs
will be below normal with low/mid 50s for the NW areas and upper
50s/low 60s for south NJ and metro Philadelphia. We`ll keep the
upper 60s for south-most DE as even if there are few breaks, some
milder air may advect in. Winds Saturday will favor the E/NE most
locals with speeds mostly around 10 mph. Some 15 to 20 mph winds are
possible for the shore areas.

 

[newell138]

Attendance will be about 1200

 

[bac2therac]

95% chance the weather sucks

 

[RutgersDom]

95% chance the weather sucks

Haha. Not good at all but we are getting g the least of the rain between tomorrow afternoon and last night/ this AM. So did catch a bit of a break. Enough where Il be there!

 

[zappaa]

Honestly
They should call the game off.
No one would care.
That’s a lie on my part, playing is the only reward for all the hardwork by players.
But in these conditions I’d still call it off
and feel bad for the young men

 

[RU848789]

Honestly
They should call the game off.
No one would care.
That’s a lie on my part, playing is the only reward for all the hardwork by players.
But in these conditions I’d still cas it off
and feel bad for the young men

Rain is almost over in Pway and there's a good chance of little to no rain (maybe just some drizzle and sprinkles) during the actual game, based on the short range models, plus winds will be diminishing by gametime (to 10-15 mph, but likely not gusty), so it may actually not be that bad out from 3-6 pm.

 

[KT8813]

Honestly
They should call the game off.
No one would care.
That’s a lie on my part, playing is the only reward for all the hardwork by players.
But in these conditions I’d still call it off
and feel bad for the young men

Dumb post! This isn't baseball sissy. And a lot of people care, especially those here who made the game part of their trip from out of town to see family and friends.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

We, quite literally, have a fair-weather fan base... but only literally (meaning these past seasons have not figuratively been "fair-weather" and we still show up).

 

[RU4Real]

Rain is almost over in Pway and there's a good chance of little to no rain (maybe just some drizzle and sprinkles) during the actual game, based on the short range models, plus winds will be diminishing by gametime (to 10-15 mph, but likely not gusty), so it may actually not be that bad out from 3-6 pm.

Let the record show that this forecast did not verify.

 

[RU848789]

Let the record show that this forecast did not verify.

Kind of. There was definitely <0.1" of rain that fell during the game (see my post in the game thread), which qualifies as "little" rain to me, but certainly it wasn't "no rain." The wind also died down and I didn't think it was that bad out for football. Others may disagree. My Friday night "forecast" was probably a bit better - got a little too optimistic with the HRRR and RAP models showing 0.01-0.05" of rain from 3-5 pm.

 

[WhiteBus]

Dumb post! This isn't baseball sissy. And a lot of people care, especially those here who made the game part of their trip from out of town to see family and friends.

You can only see family and friends at a spring football practice?? That's weird!!