why did Baker take the Technical shots?

[DennisHajekRC84]

Corey had just made 2 fer two...finished 4 fer 4. Mike was 3 fer three. (7 - 7 combined).
Don't know what they were at that moment but Baker hadn't been shooting well and was 1-2 at the time from the line (or not having shot at all yet)? And Frosh on the road in a huge spot?

not sure that would have been my choice there...just a thought/observation.

 

[RutgersRaRa]

Corey had just made 2 fer two...finished 4 fer 4. Mike was 3 fer three. (7 - 7 combined).
Don't know what they were at that moment but Baker hadn't been shooting well and was 1-2 at the time from the line (or not having shot at all yet)? And Frosh on the road in a huge spot?

not sure that would have been my choice there...just a thought/observation.

I was wondering the same thing when he went to the line. He is a decent shooter from the line, but I was expecting either Corey or Mike (not sure if Mike was in the game at that time). But I also thought that perhaps Pike is setting Geo up to handle the pressure for the years to come, though that doesn't make sense given the situation.

 

[whofrewdatmataRU13]

I noticed this as well and was a big WTF for me at the moment. I think maybe coach was thinking if he saw it go in he would start to heat up, and I believe he banged a 3 a posession or two after going 1-2 from the line on the tech

So lets say confidence booster with some gimmes.

But Rutgers has no gimmes

oh well

 

[RUChoppin]

Even though he was having a bad game from the floor, he's still statistically the best FT shooter on the team at 77.8%. It might also have been to get him "unstuck" and more relaxed after seeing the ball go through the hoop.

 

[BillyC80]

Even though he was having a bad game from the floor, he's still statistically the best FT shooter on the team at 77.8%. It might also have been to get him "unstuck" and more relaxed after seeing the ball go through the hoop.

This.

 

[ColonelRutgers]

Probably the designated tech shooter just like most soccer teams have an assigned penalty taker.

 

[knight82]

Corey has missed crucial free throws that lost games for us in the past. I wouldn't trust him

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Even though he was having a bad game from the floor, he's still statistically the best FT shooter on the team at 77.8%. It might also have been to get him "unstuck" and more relaxed after seeing the ball go through the hoop.

Maybe your 2nd point..get that...but I still go with hot hand or last 5 games stats.

 

[bethlehemfan]

I don't see any issue. The guys the best free throw shooter. You don't go with the hot hand on the foul line. You guys are a hoot.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

I don't see any issue. The guys the best free throw shooter. You don't go with the hot hand on the foul line. You guys are a hoot.

Season avg.
Baker - 78%
Mike - 75%
Sanders - 74%

Last 10 games:
Baker 22 of 29.
Mike 22 of 29
Sanders 20 of 28

BEST is a 3 way tie. Sorry. I don't put a frosh there given that and his shooting in the game.

 

[goru7]

Season avg.
Baker - 78%
Mike - 75%
Sanders - 74%

Last 10 games:
Baker 22 of 29.
Mike 22 of 29
Sanders 20 of 28

BEST is a 3 way tie. Sorry. I don't put a frosh there given that and his shooting in the game.

First of all, Corey was not in the game at the time and cannot shoot the technical. Second, Geo is our best % free throw shooter. Pretty simple.

 

[bac2therac]

I don't see any issue. The guys the best free throw shooter. You don't go with the hot hand on the foul line. You guys are a hoot.

agreee Corey is not a good free throw shooter. Geo is fine in that situation given his history, thats not why we lost the game..sure one point but the whole strategy of the game would change, there was so much more time to go

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

agreee Corey is not a good free throw shooter. Geo is fine in that situation given his history, thats not why we lost the game..sure one point but the whole strategy of the game would change, there was so much more time to go[/QUOTE]


never suggested this and complately agree.but every point does matter ...just a question/discussion on the strategy. Didn't realize Corey wasn't in play...but again, he just saw two go thru the net....and the stats don't lie. Perhaps if Corey was in the game he may have taken them. That fact that he wasn't on court answers it for me.

 

[RUChoppin]

I looked back through the Play-by-Play on ESPN for our games to date, and coming into the MSU game we had two opportunities to shoot a technical foul shot.

Coppin State - Geo took the shot and missed
FDU - Corey took the shot and missed

So, we're now 0-3 on technical FTs this year.

 

[jonS]

correct me if I'm mistaken but wasn't Geo not on the floor at the end of regulation? If so , why wasn't on the floor?

 

[BillyC80]

If a guy shooting 75% from the line makes his first 3 foul shots, then he is statistically more likely to miss the next one. Just sayin...

 

[Mr Magoo]

Thought Geo was our best bet. Would not have Sanders take them and we don’t have many choices.

If tech fouls ever become acrobatic layups or dunks instead of FTs, Corey’s your man.

 

[RUChoppin]

If a guy shooting 75% from the line makes his first 3 foul shots, then he is statistically more likely to miss the next one. Just sayin...

 

[RU848789]

If a guy shooting 75% from the line makes his first 3 foul shots, then he is statistically more likely to miss the next one. Just sayin...

Not true. Generally, each FT is considered an independent event, so past FTs don't impact the likelihood of making any individual FT. Just like flipping coins - even if one gets heads 10x in a row, the chance of getting heads on the 11th toss is still 50%.

 

[BillyC80]

Flipping a coin is complete chance, while shooting free throws is all skill. Apples and oranges.

 

[RU848789]

Flipping a coin is complete chance, while shooting free throws is all skill. Apples and oranges.

Sorry, you're still 100% wrong - you need to read up on statistics and probability.

 

[BillyC80]

I did. The likelihood that a 71% shooter makes his first foul shot is 71%. If he makes it, the likelihood of him making his second shot is .71x.71=50%. If he makes his first two, the likelihood of him making his third shot is .71x.71x.71=36% and if he makes his first three then the likelihood of making his fourth shot is .71x.71x.71x.71=25%.

However, if what you say is true, then the fact that Corey made his first two foul shots does not mean he should have taken the technical shot, as the OP suggested. If each shot is a separate event, then in that one event (technical foul shot) you will always be better off putting a higher percentage foul-shooter on the line.

 

[hoquat63]

If a guy shooting 75% from the line makes his first 3 foul shots, then he is statistically more likely to miss the next one. Just sayin...

That is a statically fallacy.
If you flip a coin 10 times in a row and get heads the chance of getting heads on the next flip is still 50/50. Law of averages is often cited but is just bunk.

 

[BillyC80]

hoquat, this has been addressed already. Read the recent posts. Shooting and making foul shots is not chance, it is 100% skill and therefore is not the same as flipping a coin.

If it were the same probability, then there would be no reason to ever practice shooting free throws.

 

[hoquat63]

hoquat, this has been addressed already. Read the recent posts. Shooting and making foul shots is not chance, it is 100% skill and therefore is not the same as flipping a coin.

If it were the same probability, then there would be no reason to ever practice shooting free throws.

Statistics 101. You can increase the probability of making a foul shot with practice, but that does not negate the basic statistical sciecw.

 

[BillyC80]

This video takes a while to get to the point, but in the end it concludes the probability of making successive free throws is equal to the shooter's shooting percentage multiplied by itself to the nth degree, where n is the number of free throws taken. Same formula I described in one of my posts above.

 

[Big East Beast]

Stats don’t lie, but people frequently manipulate or misinterpret them.

I get your point about having an inexperienced player step up in that situation, but it’s not like it was in the last minutes of the game. I think Williams and Geo is a toss up in this scenario.

 

[BillyC80]

Stats don’t lie, but people frequently manipulate or misinterpret them.

I get your point about having an inexperienced player step up in that situation, but it’s not like it was in the last minutes of the game. I think Williams and Geo is a toss up in this scenario.

Agreed. Plus Geo's confidence, attitude and demeanor are closer to a junior's than a typical freshman.

 

[hoquat63]

This video takes a while to get to the point, but in the end it concludes the probability of making successive free throws is equal to the shooter's shooting percentage multiplied by itself to the nth degree, where n is the number of free throws taken. Same formula I described in one of my posts above.

View embedded media

This certainly true prior to him taking the first shot. Again that is basic probability theory. After he takes the first shot then the odds of making tha second shot the profanity of making the second shot is the same as his overall probability. Again basic probability theory.

 

[BillyC80]

That's not the conclusion of the video. The probability of making the second (or third, etc.) shot IN A SEQUENCE, which was the OP premise, statistically goes down. What you're doing is removing all existence of the first shot in the sequence.

 

[hoquat63]

That's not the conclusion of the video. The probability of making the second (or third, etc.) shot IN A SEQUENCE, which was the OP premise, statistically goes down. What you're doing is removing all existence of the first shot in the sequence.

Well I guess if it’s in someone’s video it must be true.
Maybe the probability should go up since by taking the first shot he has now practiced shooting one more time so he has had more practice!

 

[Loyal-Son]

Basic statistics says these are independent events.

BEFORE the player takes any of the 3 shots, the odds of making all 3 for an 80% shooter are .8 x .8 x .8, or about 50%.

However, AFTER he has already made the first two, the statistical odds of him making the 3rd are actually a little greater than 80%, not less - since he has slightly increased his total accuracy by making the first 2. How much depends on how many total foul shots he has taken during the year. To repeat, it is an independent event.

As we all know however, statistics does not take into account things such as confidence level and reaction to pressure.

 

[hoquat63]

Basic statistics says these are independent events.

BEFORE the player takes any of the 3 shots, the odds of making all 3 for an 80% shooter is .8 x .8 x .8, or about 50%.

Absolutely true but after he has taken the first two shots the odds of making the third is 80% regardless of what he did on the first two because they are independent events.

 

[BillyC80]

Well I guess if it’s in someone’s video it must be true.

Not sure why you're belittling my use of this video to support my statement.

The video is by Salman Khan, MS degree from MIT and founder of Khan Academy, online educator with billions of views to his educational videos and endorsements by some of the greatest minds on the planet.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

I looked back through the Play-by-Play on ESPN for our games to date, and coming into the MSU game we had two opportunities to shoot a technical foul shot.

Coppin State - Geo took the shot and missed
FDU - Corey took the shot and missed

So, we're now 0-3 on technical FTs this year.

aren't tech in college two shots and the ball not 1 like the NBA? IIRC Baker was 1 of two there?

LOL..so it must be Mike's turn to miss one [jumpingsmile] (we need to make more foul shots....obviously).

 

[hoquat63]

Not sure why you're belittling my use of this video to support my statement.

The video is by Salman Khan, MS degree from MIT and founder of Khan Academy, online educator with billions of views to his educational videos and endorsements by some of the greatest minds on the planet.

Not sure my RU education in statistics to support my arguement

 

[hoquat63]

By the way I’m a French fashion model

 

[SSmith989]

BillyC80

I get your point. You’re speaking in a sequence, and people clearly aren’t understanding that.

 

[BillyC80]

Not sure my RU education in statistics to support my arguement

I assume you also took at least one course in English at RU and yet you spelled "argument" wrong.

 

[BillyC80]

BillyC80

I get your point. You’re speaking in a sequence, and people clearly aren’t understanding that.

Thanks. And the video clearly concludes that the probability of making the second shot goes down AFTER the first shot is made. So the sequence cannot be ignored, statistically speaking.