why did Baker take the Technical shots?
- Thread starter DennisHajekRC84
- Start date
That's a very good point - went back to check again, and the ESPN play by play only shows one shot for the Coppin State technical, but two for FDU and MSU. Don't remember what the circumstance was for Coppin State that it would have only been one (or if the play by play is just wrong)
So, if the below is accurate... it'd mean that Geo is 1/3 for technical FTs and Corey is 1/2.
Coppin State
FDU
MSU
Billy - you're 100% wrong. Seriously wrong, You're teetering on being put into the Wrongoriffic Hall of Fame for your wrongness and if you insist on arguing this point, we'll have to have @willisneverrana43 MC your induction. You've completely misunderstood that video. Please just go to the 1:30 mark and listen. The speaker says, "we're going to assume, whether or not you made the first one has no bearing on the probability of whether you make the second one."
They're independent events, meaning regardless of how many in a row one has made, the probability of making the next independent event FT is simply that person's statistical average. In the case of the video, the probability of making each successive FT is reset at 75%, which the video clearly shows, which is why the chance of making the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. FTs is always 75% in the video.
The video also correctly shows the lower probability of making a sequence of FTs, a priori, i.e., calculated before starting the sequence. For any FT shooter, the probability of making X in a row is that FT shooter's percentage raised to the power of that X. That's why the formula at the end for the "LeBron" shooters, who average 75%, to make 10 in a row is 75% (0.75) to the 10th power or about 5.6%.
You're out of your depth here - don't make me make a multi-paragraph post about my education and knowledge of probabilities and statistics. The one thing you did get right is you generally want the shooter with the highest FT shooting percentage to take the technical.
Again, completely wrong. The probability of making any indiviual FT is always 71% for a 71% FT shooter. The numbers you're calculating are the probabilities of making 1, 2, 3, and 4 FTs, before the sequence starts, i.e., a 71% FT shooter has a 25% chance of making 4 in a row before he starts his 4 FT sequence. After making 3 in a row, the shooter's probability of making the 4th FT is...wait for it...71%.
Yes, you always want your best FT shooter shooting technicals.
You have an essential misunderstanding of the concept.
The chance of making a single free throw at any time doesn't change, just like the chance of flipping a coin doesn't change. The chance of "making two in a row" is different, though.
Looking at coin flipping, because it's easier.
The chance of getting heads is 50%.
The chance of getting heads three times in a row is .5 x .5 x .5, or 12.5%
The chance of getting heads after having already flipped heads twice, though, goes back to 50%. Probability ignores the past.
The odds of getting heads 100x in a row is minute... but on the 101st flip, though, the chance of getting heads is again just 50%. If you'd wagered before any flips the odds of getting 101 in a row, though, the likelihood would be even less than 100x in a row.
So, an 80% FT shooter has an 80% chance every time they step to the line. If shooting two, they have an 80% chance to hit the first, and they have an 80% chance to hit the second. BUT, before they took either, they'd have just a 64% chance of hitting BOTH in a row (.8 x .8).
If they've already gone 2 for 2 earlier in the game and step to the line again, they again have an 80% chance to hit the first... then once that's been shot, they have an 80% chance to hit the second. Before they took either, they'd again have a 64% chance to hit both in a row. BUT, if you had asked before the game what their chances were of going 4/4 from the line, it'd be just 41% (.8 x .8 x .8 x .8).
You're trying to take a single event (what are the odds of X happening) and use the probability for a series of events (what are the odds of X happening Y times in a row). That doesn't work.
If it DID work, you'd be able to "preload" a coin by flipping it over and over until you got heads 10x in a row.... basically guaranteeing that the next time it'd be a tails. The world doesn't work that way.
By the way, while the Khan video is correct, Khan's education level and experience in the field of statistics and probability are a far cry from mine. 100% probability on that.
RU Numbers, I'll defer to your expertise on this.
The only issue I still have is with comparing the probability of something that is 100% by chance each time, i.e., a coin flip, with something that is 100% skill.
I guess the key is that every shot has only two possible outcomes, just like a coin flip.
In any case, thanks for the clarification.
The only issue I still have is with comparing the probability of something that is 100% by chance each time, i.e., a coin flip, with something that is 100% skill.
I guess the key is that every shot has only two possible outcomes, just like a coin flip.
In any case, thanks for the clarification.
No problem, glad you can see it now. The skill vs. chance doesn't really matter, though, as long as the FT shooter has enough attempts to make the "average" statistically relevant (usually at least 30) and once that is established, then the assumption is any particular player's skill level is essentially a "constant" such that the likelihood (skill) of making a FT is generally a constant (which it usually is). Skill absolutely matters hugely from player to player though, as borne out by the widely different FT percentages of different players.
Now that's true, overall, usually for most players. Where it's not always true is situationally. There are some players who shoot FTs a bit better or worse in high pressure situations like near the end of the game, when the game is close or when shooting technicals. Given enough attempts in specific situations, though, one can still calculate some statistical average in those situations.
