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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
For a shu fan ya know whats funny? ron harper shot a better % from 3 in the big ten as a true freshman than your beloved myles powell did in conference play as a junior in an inferior conference
Can someone please break down Ron Harper Jr.'s 3-point shooting percentage for Saturday home games during which he was feeling particularly melancholy and vulnerable and had eaten a boli at Stuff Yer Face within 24 hours? I'd like that from NBA range, last year's college range, and next year's college range. And include a review of tape, tape, tape. I think we're getting somewhere.
Harper playing D on Langford....locked down D. [banana][banana]. Langford was covered on every move he made on the court.
Seriously....I love Harper's game and looking forward to seeing him and the entire team play this year.
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So now you're just making fun of people on the Rutgers Basketball message board for breaking out advanced stats on the team's 3 point shooting?
There is no more appropriate place for this discussion.
Just use the word “advanced,” and it all becomes OK. Suddenly it’s not increasingly silly data mining and data cuts. It’s “advanced.” Imagine the uses, the number of bad things that could be made respectable. For instance, advanced nose picking. Advanced ear wax removal. Now they’re just medical procedures—well, advanced medical procedures, that is.
Willis, we get it, you’re a brilliant statistician who just refuses to compromise the science. Or at least that’s what you’d have us believe.
But you’re completely missing the HUMAN element in the analysis. Harper was an 18–year old true freshman who was getting his feet wet and couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn in November and December last year. Once he got his sea legs, he shot about 35% the rest of the way.
He will NOT need to acclimate himself again this fall, but should hit the ground running because he’s now a more experienced 19-year old sophomore.
As much as you think kyk and others are slicing the data by viewing the conference average in January through March as the more relevant percentage, you’re slavishness to proper statistical analysis is ignoring the most likely conclusion here, which is that Harper became what he is - a pretty good 35% shooter, and NOT a sub 20% shooter - once he got rid of his freshman jitters.
Okay, go ahead and attack my flawed statistical acumen. But I’m comfortable with my ability to see and perceive the human element in performance evaluation.
But you’re completely missing the HUMAN element in the analysis. Harper was an 18–year old true freshman who was getting his feet wet and couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn in November and December last year. Once he got his sea legs, he shot about 35% the rest of the way.
He will NOT need to acclimate himself again this fall, but should hit the ground running because he’s now a more experienced 19-year old sophomore.
As much as you think kyk and others are slicing the data by viewing the conference average in January through March as the more relevant percentage, you’re slavishness to proper statistical analysis is ignoring the most likely conclusion here, which is that Harper became what he is - a pretty good 35% shooter, and NOT a sub 20% shooter - once he got rid of his freshman jitters.
Okay, go ahead and attack my flawed statistical acumen. But I’m comfortable with my ability to see and perceive the human element in performance evaluation.
Willisneverright is very witty. LOL. Even the Russian judge gave you a 10, Scangg.
With this post you are now becoming a bad caricature of your posting persona.
Actually, if you acknowledge all the numbers, don’t cherry pick, and just say that your ultimate conclusion is just based on your opinion, it’s not really a statistical analysis. It’s just an opinion. That’s fine. Open for debate, but fine. It’s the ever deeper cutting of the data to identify the subset that you already wanted and that will inevitably be somewhere in there, elevating it to a greater, irrefutable meaning that should be obvious, and announcing that your conclusion is what the stats show that’s silly and manufactured.
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I’ve got a feeling that whenever you’re involved in a mic drop it’s due to bad hands.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Just quadrupling down on your ridiculous take in this thread, eh?
It's like you're trying to be Indiana Jones' dad in Last Crusade.... "you call this archaeology!?!" Also feels like you'd be irritated when people use the world "literally" instead of "figuratively", too.
It's all just opinions, bud. That's what this board is. Opinions can be based on what people see in data, and that's fine. Metrics will often (usually?) be incomplete, but that doesn't necessarily make them useless.
The website that showed shot charts is interesting, because it has new data - not just shots, but shots and location. It was incomplete (missing games), but it was attempting to apply an NBA-style shot chart breakdown to NCAA players. Assuming it's accurate (and that may be a big assumption), it looks as though Baker/Harper already take most of their threes from outside the newly increased distance as it is - so moving the line may impact them less than it would a "toe at the line" shooter. On the flip side, McConnell takes more of his shots close to the line, so moving it back may impact him more.
Of course, I could put an asterisk on every post saying "these are solely the opinions of this poster based on incomplete and potentially flawed data, and should not be cited in as 'statistical analysis' in a formal academic setting".... but given that this is a message board, and not a thesis defense, that should go without saying.
The cherry picking is legendary in this thread. You are what your record says you are. Same with shooting.
What's funny to me is so many people discounted EO's 3pt % because he was hot the first game. Can't have it both ways.
i think we all agree Harper has a lot of upside, but he needs to improve in a number of areas before he will be drafted. He was only a frosh, so it looks promising. Best thing about this team, is there are a bunch of other players in the same position. A big jump from two or three of them and we will be exceeding expectations this year. With the huge increase in competition during practice i think there is a very good chance this happens.
What's funny to me is so many people discounted EO's 3pt % because he was hot the first game. Can't have it both ways.
i think we all agree Harper has a lot of upside, but he needs to improve in a number of areas before he will be drafted. He was only a frosh, so it looks promising. Best thing about this team, is there are a bunch of other players in the same position. A big jump from two or three of them and we will be exceeding expectations this year. With the huge increase in competition during practice i think there is a very good chance this happens.
If "you are what your record says you are" then you should also have "discounted EO's 3pt %"... if you add context to Harper, then you should also add context to Omoruyi.
Omoruyi's 3P% was decent until he was hurt, and he had clearly worked on that aspect of his game in the offseason and was given the encouragement by the staff (or even just the green light) to let them fly. He had gone 0/16 his first two years, and had only made 5 attempts as a sophomore.... then suddenly he passed his prior season attempt total by the second game, and his career attempt total by the 6th. It was clearly going to be an element of his offense moving forward, and there were interviews talking about him putting up tons of shots over the summer, etc. Once he re-injured his knee, though, that all disappeared. It's anyone's guess what a fully healthy season would have yielded production-wise... but you can't ignore that his junior production was impacted by his injury. Yeboah's RS Jr season had injury impact, too.
I agree, just saying be consistent across all the players. In the EO v Yeboah debate everyone gave Yeboah the benefit of the doubt because of the injury but not Eugene. Which is totally ridiculous because EO seemed far more affected by his injury than Yeboah when you watch the tape. Personally i think they are probably both better shooters than their numbers last year.
Harper was a frosh so he gets some leeway there but he put up a lot of shots and the numbers weren't that great. Take out the two Iowa games (who were by far the slowest team in the league defensively) and they look worse. You could play these games all day. That's why i think the numbers are the most important indicator.
In the long run, i think McConnell (no idea what Young will do) will be the best 3pt shooter on the team. He has the most natural shot.
This thread comes down to this:
1. Willis is right that Harper shot 27.8% from 3-point range for the entire season. Can’t get around that unassailable fact.
2. Everyone else (including me) has a valid opinion that the more “relevant” statistic is Harper’s 3-point shooting percentage in the January through March time period, because he needed November and December to shed the freshman jitters, and the level of competition was much better in the last three months.
Call that data cutting or data slicing if you must, but it is much more reliable because of the human factor involved here.
1. Willis is right that Harper shot 27.8% from 3-point range for the entire season. Can’t get around that unassailable fact.
2. Everyone else (including me) has a valid opinion that the more “relevant” statistic is Harper’s 3-point shooting percentage in the January through March time period, because he needed November and December to shed the freshman jitters, and the level of competition was much better in the last three months.
Call that data cutting or data slicing if you must, but it is much more reliable because of the human factor involved here.
I'm curious how the moved line will impact McConnell - if the numbers from thestepien.com are accurate (not saying they are), he took more of his shots closer to the line than Baker/Harper did, and his percent went down as he got further back. Glad they'll have the Spain trip to get live reps with the new distance before the season starts.
Good point, didn't consider that. That could change things for a lot of players. Caleb also seemed to be good at getting wide open looks which definitely helped his percentage. RHJ was comfortable shooting over people. If he gets his accuracy up, he could be deadly.
Eh. I’d bench that girl.
Stop watching the eyes and watch the belly button/belt buckle.
She’s going to get lost on a head fake and give up a basket.
Also, if your player doesn’t have the ball be in position for help defense.
Little Sally needs to hit the pine.
It's over. You lost. Let it go.
You are so blind to context and just a slave to sample size. If you can't understand the factors that have been explained to you multiple times here you are just completely lost in terms of player evaluation and projections. There is absolutely zero chance he shoots closer to the first stretch than the last stretch from 3. Zero. Nada. Guaranteed. Book it. Mark it down. Hold me to it.
Check this thread next season and admit how wrong you were and how obvious it was to see for anyone with a clue
Let's just wait and see. Improvement in shooting percentage is never guaranteed.
I have no idea what he will shoot on 3's but his name will likely appear a lot more on opponent scouting reports. Probably with an emphasis on defending him very closely at the 3 point line and closing out aggressively on him. He may also draw the opponents best perimeter defensive player, like a Luther Muhammad, for example.
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This is an interesting word salad mixed with an odd resetting of the discussion, vagueness and a surrounding lack of understanding of what's been discussed, with a big dollop of anger underlying all of it.
Well, welcome to the discussion. Your level-headed approach, however, may not go over so well. If so, please find a stat, draw an immovable conclusion and stick to it. You'll at least be safe from the anger.
Does Willis argue against #2?
That is all that matters.
Who cares how he started the year shooting the ball AS A TRUE FRESHMAN?
As is said, at the end of the season, the freshman are now sophomores.
Meaning they are different players than when they started their college careers due to the experience they have gained.
If he plays well enough to at least test the waters, that will mean, given the other players around him, that we have had a good season. So we can hope he does well enough to consider going to the NBA.
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Exactly. It's a common sense test that he's failing in epic fashion
No, no, really. There'll be the loud clapping sound, and everyone will turn around and to see the mic at your feet and you have that look on your face. Someone will moan, "Not again. That's another 100 bucks." You'll apologize, and they'll say, "What the hell were you doing with the mic anyway." And you'll say, "well, I thought I wanted to say something about, I dunno, stats." And they'll say, "What did we tell you last time. Keep your hands off the mic." And then someone with their head down mumbling will go outside to his car to go buy another mic.
Ha! thanks.
Like a veteran bullfighter, I've managed to both anger the bull and keep him focused on you. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
I'm generally and optimistic person, but to project that a 3 star recruit who did not make the Big 10 All-Freshmen Team may forego his Junior year to enter the NBA draft is insanely optimistic. With that said, Harper certainly has upside and can have a very nice career at Rutgers but the OP should take a couple of steps backwards and let the kid develop into at least an all conference player before worrying about his jumping to the draft after his sophomore season.
This is an interesting topic and I agree EO most likely shoots better without that knee injury. The difference between EO and the Harper and Yeboah situations is their past history of 3 point shooting success. EO did not shoot any 3's essentially in his first two years so those first games could have just been a fluke regardless of injury. That one is more a matter of opinion and guessing.
Harper was a known 3 point sniper in HS and shot much better against the tougher competition. If it was the other way around and he started hot against the soft OOC schedule and then faded against the B1G, that would be much more worrisome. To not factor in the freshman jitters and getting acclimated to D1 ball into your thought process of evaluating play and projecting his future success would be a massive error in thought process.
Yeboah shot a good percent from 3 the previous couple seasons as well as prior to the injury that season. Very large sample size of success and the only real logical explanation is the injury. EO with no prior success is harder to say.
As for projecting stats moving forward, I would expect the 3 point distance change to impact EO moreso than Yeboah and Harper who already took some deeper 3's. If EO sits a year, he will have a ton of time to keep working on that shot though so I wouldn't be surprised if he shot ok from 3 at the new distance, but I'm not sure that's what his coach will want from him.
Agree, the overall premise of the thread is way over the top. There have also been some overreactions in the opposite direction to draw a contrast with the out-there premise, too.
Harper's progress through the year is a big reason for optimism. He came in as a true frosh getting 15-20 min per game with an ice cold outside shot and committing a lot of turnovers. He then earned his way into becoming a starter, improved his shooting, dramatically cut down on his turnovers, improved his defense, and became an important cog in the wheel.... all as the competition level increased.
Now he needs to build on that. Going into next year, he'll be past all the "newness" that all true freshman have to adjust to - in basketball terms of offense/defense/chemistry/practice schedules/S&C/game day environment/etc, but also in terms of college life/class schedules/social dynamics/busing between campuses/etc. He'll also be a day one starter going into the season, with more minutes (and more expectations) - and opposing teams will definitely have him on their scouting reports.
If he has a good season, should he look to get a draft grade? I'd say yes - and then he has a better perspective of where he needs to focus going into his junior year. I have no expectations of him leaving after this season, though.
Nojel Eastern on Purdue declared after his freshman season. He was a 3* who didn't make the all-freshman team.
Didn't start as a freshman and averaged 3 PPG. So obviously he was told, go back to school. As a Soph, he started every game and averaged 8 PPG and 5 Rebounds--6'6 guard that absolutely does not shoot the 3. Wonder if he declared this year?
Point is, why would a player not go through the process, if they have aspirations, no matter how quixotic, of playing in the League? Surprised Baker has not done this--maybe he has other plans for his life. But it couldn't hurt. Nor is a player being disloyal to his school by going through the process.
TL
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