As one of over 95% of bracketologists who selected Rutgers in their projection, I've been mulling over this question for the past few hours. This committee seemed to value bad losses more than good wins (a complete 180 from last year), the NCSOS, but most importantly, it seems that they valued SOR the most of any metric, especially amongst bubble teams.
SOR - Strength of Record - is calculated by computing the difference in a team's win total and the number of wins the average top 25 would be expected to earn had they played the same schedule. The one big issue with SOR is that it is a very unforgiving statistic that does not take any circumstance, such as injuries or days of rest, into consideration.
Of the six bubble 11-seeds chosen as well as Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights had the worst SOR of the bunch. In addition, Rutgers was the only team of the group with an NCSOS of over 300.
SOR:
Mississippi State - 40
NC State - 41
Providence - 46
Arizona State - 47
Pittsburgh - 52
Nevada - 54
Rutgers - 56
Why was Rutgers' SOR so bad?
Expected to win:
Temple - L
Seton Hall - L
Nebraska - L
Michigan - L
at Minnesota - L
Northwestern - L
Expected to lose:
Indiana - W
at Purdue - W
The average top 25 team is expected to win at Wisconsin, at Penn St and against Michigan at the BTT. Rutgers should have been 23-10 with this schedule, but instead finished 19-14.
As Rutgers fans, we look at those losses and know that two starters didn't play against Temple. The players didn't show up against Seton Hall given the way the previous game at Ohio State ended. The final four games on that list we played without Mawot Mag, and the committee punished us for losing them. Though there is nothing you can do about injuries, the blame for those four should fall squarely on the coaching staff for not identifying Derek Simpson as a potential starter until the Big Ten Tournament. Had they gone to Simpson earlier, some of those late L's may have flipped to W's.
That being said, I love Coach Pikiell and am very excited for the returning players, incoming recruits and especially the future of this program. Let's go out there and schedule some tougher non-conference games and show everyone what RU basketball is made of!
Keep your heads up Rutgers nation, the fun is only beginning.
SOR - Strength of Record - is calculated by computing the difference in a team's win total and the number of wins the average top 25 would be expected to earn had they played the same schedule. The one big issue with SOR is that it is a very unforgiving statistic that does not take any circumstance, such as injuries or days of rest, into consideration.
Of the six bubble 11-seeds chosen as well as Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights had the worst SOR of the bunch. In addition, Rutgers was the only team of the group with an NCSOS of over 300.
SOR:
Mississippi State - 40
NC State - 41
Providence - 46
Arizona State - 47
Pittsburgh - 52
Nevada - 54
Rutgers - 56
Why was Rutgers' SOR so bad?
Expected to win:
Temple - L
Seton Hall - L
Nebraska - L
Michigan - L
at Minnesota - L
Northwestern - L
Expected to lose:
Indiana - W
at Purdue - W
The average top 25 team is expected to win at Wisconsin, at Penn St and against Michigan at the BTT. Rutgers should have been 23-10 with this schedule, but instead finished 19-14.
As Rutgers fans, we look at those losses and know that two starters didn't play against Temple. The players didn't show up against Seton Hall given the way the previous game at Ohio State ended. The final four games on that list we played without Mawot Mag, and the committee punished us for losing them. Though there is nothing you can do about injuries, the blame for those four should fall squarely on the coaching staff for not identifying Derek Simpson as a potential starter until the Big Ten Tournament. Had they gone to Simpson earlier, some of those late L's may have flipped to W's.
That being said, I love Coach Pikiell and am very excited for the returning players, incoming recruits and especially the future of this program. Let's go out there and schedule some tougher non-conference games and show everyone what RU basketball is made of!
Keep your heads up Rutgers nation, the fun is only beginning.