An update from the NWS as of 3:44 p.m.:
For Sunday into Sunday night, the strong arctic cold
front will
cross through the region early Sunday morning advecting a much
colder airmass into the region during the day. As it does so, an
area of low pressure will also be developing over the Deep South
near the tail-end of the arctic
front. This area of low pressure
will ride along the frontal boundary and strengthen as it moves off
of the Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon.
From here,
forecast guidance varies greatly and ultimately will
determine what will occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the
track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large portion of
the region is
likely to observe accumulating snowfall (similar to
what the 12Z/
GFS depicts). If the track of the low is suppressed
further south and east (similar to the 12Z/
ECMWF), then accumulating
snow may only be confined to coastal areas. Whereas if the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, then the most significant
snows will be focused north and west (depicted by the 12Z/Canadian).
Regardless of the
variance in global guidance, have seen an increase
in overall
QPF values and in snow probs. Thus, there is an increase
in forecaster confidence that accumulating snow is on the table
Sunday afternoon/evening especially since cold air will be
advecting in from the northwest. So with this being said, the
greatest potential for higher accumulations are for areas along
the I-95 corridor and points north and west where the initial
forecast calls for 2-4" of snow through 00Z Monday. Lesser
amounts upwards of 1-2" are forecast near coastal areas through
the same timeframe. Obviously, a lot can change over the next
60-72 hours as we obtain more
hi-res/short range forecast
guidance and storm total snowfall covers the `full duration` of
the event, so stay tuned for the latest details to the forecast
over the coming days!
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