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GAME 15 WISCONSIN: For all intents and purposes, that's a wrap

And with that the 2024-2025 Rutgers basketball season has come to a close....This team has all but run out of their nine lives to salvage a successful season. A successful season means an NCAA tournament appearance. A successful season rests on a blind faith miracle at this point. Mathmetically possible with an enormous 16 games left but that is the issue isn't. 15 games into the season sitting at 8-7 with 16 left, Rutgers has done zero to even put themselves in a resume. They are an afterhought nationally. They are going to be fighting just to make the Big 10 tournament. There is no resume. There is just one semi quality win. There are bad losses. There are bad metrics and bad predictive numbers. But beyond that the eye test is everything with this team. There is no metamorphis coming to turn an ugly worm into a beautiful butterfly and give flight to all our hopes and aspirations. There is nothing to even hint that Rutgers is capable of digging themselves out of this grave they reside in. Many saw the trouble early and perhaps now even the last holdouts are cognizant.

Obviously the loss of Dylan effected the trajectory of this game and the Indiana game. No I cannot say just if he was at 100%, the outcome of the past 2 games would have been changed. Dylan did not even look 50%. He appeared to be an old man who couldnt move out there. That means he was totally ineffective and likely hurt the team by having him in and played a big part in going down 33-17 early. Whether its flu or any other kind of injury it sucks because he is Rutgers only consistent and difference maker on offense that you can rely on each game. Its his team and it runs a certain way with him. Without him Rutgers actually played more like the Pike pounding nails, we are going to try to thread the needle with tough defense and a couple of timely shots in an ugly scrapfest. There were moments that it looked like Pike was going to pull it off. RU got so close within 3 and then was just repelled and the door rudely slammed in their face. A return in the late stages of the 2023 and 2024 offenses which we know are brutal.

For starters, RU was not ready to play this game and defend its home court. Struggled to score early and let Wisconsin just get confident right from the get go. RU down 12-3 early and that is not how you beat a Wisconsin team who is beatable but coming off an offensive high of 116. By the time RU could stablize itself and adjust, they spotted the Badgers a 33-17 and that was too much to overcome. Its a shame because played its best defense of the year in the latter stages of the first half and much of the 2nd. They chipped away and fought and hung around through adversity and got pokeways and got steals forcing Wisconsin into 16 turnovers converting them into points while generally protecting the ball themselves. For a moment there we could believe in them. The hard work and the pounding nails, you could see a classic Pikiell win in the hazy distance. At 60-57 nearing the 6 minute mark, RU had held Wisconsin to just 17 second half points in 14 minutes. An incredible stat to see given the defensive woes all year long. Alas just like this season it was not meant to me. Wisconsin closed the game out like men and did it in impressive fashion. RU's offense was shutdown while Wisconsin made shot after shot. Big credit to them because the Badgers had to work hard to get this one. In the end, a quick and deadly 13-2 over the course of the next 5 minutes sealed Rutgers fate and there with the last gasp of breath for the 2024-25 season.

I can tell you one thing though. With Dylan out, Rutgers played differently. It was not the same Rutgers. Rutgers slowed the possessions down, mucked it up and concentrated on turning Wisconsin over. That kind of gameplan does not happen with Dylan in the game. Its not a knock on Dylan, it is what it is. When Dylan it is in the game, he runs the show along with Ace. The focus is 100% on offense. That dye was cast a long time ago. Two players in particular one on offense...Tyson Acuff and one on defense Dylan Grant were unexpected highlights. I will admit and eat some crow on Grant. I said he was unplayable. Obviously I was wrong. Pike must have his methods to why he didnt play but DG stepped up big time given the opportunity in really buoying this team in the comeback. Some 3s and some blocks and some boards. 3-8f g, 8 points, 2 blocks and 3 offensive boards...probably the best all around off the bench performamce I have this year by anyone on Rutgers. Acuff made shots at times and was leading scorer with 17 points albeit on a shaky 6-15 fg in 30 minutes. How much do we take from these performances. On the latter, Acuff was the main option for offense besides Ace who was brick city. As @The RUT pointedout, Acuff was more comfortable in his position tonight with the ball. That does not happen when Dylan is in the game. While certainly it helps Acuff as volume shooter to see the ball go in the hoop, I would hesitate to put too much into this peformance given his role changes drastically when Harper comes back. Making back to back 3s and 3 overall definitely a plus but he also threw up some ugly bricks especially in the closing minutes and also had a key turnover. Certainly some plusses but still not convinced long term. Grant on the other hand has a higher ceiling right now and will be getting more minutes going forward. How many is the question and can he replicate this performance when the pace and tempo is slower than it would be with Harper in the game. I think off of this performance we will see less Martini and Hayes and less Egobole and more Summerville.

Further cementing the vultures circling the season were dismal performances from Jeremiah Williams just reduced to 22 minutes, 2-7 fg shooting and 4 points. 2 years ago, prominent posts and mods heralded his coming and that he was he a game changer. After his initial 3 game debut last year, everyone figured out and he was expected to be a leader and pivotal bridge player but now has turned into an afterthougt. J Mike had his moments today but again as a bridge player its just not enough. The bar was set so low for him early, we praise the improved play but its simply not nearly enough. Just 2 assists and if he is taking 10 shots that is simply too many for my liking. Ace Bailey was a disaster tonight. 3-16 fg, this was even worse than his debacle at Kennesaw. Plus he was in foul trouble and then goaded into an immature technical that fouled him out. Went from a phenomenal performance to a bricklaying performance in one game. Shot selection caught up with him tonight on a night we desperately needed him to perform to his press credentials. EO was awful...13 minutes and 1 board and blew his layup. He takes a small step forward then another large step back. Just not good enough. Lathan really didnt have a good game tonight, 6 points, but 4 of those on the last 2 possessions. He was a boy amongst the Wisconsin men. Derkack was okay today but again some good and his typical mistakes. He is a role player who has to be forced into more minutes because there simply isnt anyone else. Hayes had one layup but played only 4 minutes for some reason. Martini was lost as usual in 8 minutes. Pretty sobering and a reminder that this roster is not the kind of roster you compete for a NCAA bid.

Wisconsin...you see Wisconsins roster is. I know some were down on them after the departure of Hepburn and others but they brought back Crawl and Blackwell who has really blossomed this year and Tonje from Colorado State has been a super portal addition for Gard. They are so well coached and I was impressed with their ball movement. Even when their shots didnt go down, they were all great shots and everyone knew where they were suppose to be on the court. Experience and coaching matters and there was a clear difference..and without Dylan, Wisconsin easily had the talent advantage tonight. They will contend for the Big 10 title and be a tough out in the tourney. I think they struggled with RU throwing some wrinkles at them and kept the door open for RU to win the game. However their poise down the stretch in a tough environment was impressive and you can just see the stark difference between the two clubs.

There were positives tonight and that is a shock considering a double digit loss but in the grand scheme of things it seems too little too late too hollow. I refuse to fall for it. I felt going into the 3 game home stretch, RU had to win 2 to keep ANY hopes alive but likely needed 3 if we were being REALISTIC about things. Well this was likely the easiest of the 3 and each one gets progressively harder for different reasons. Now with Purdue and UCLA each one is a must win but this program is headed in the wrong direction. Nothing I saw tonight or at any other point this year shows me they are ready to turn a corner and sweep these next 2. Mathematically yes, but come on man. I am not living on blind faith and blind loyalty. I see the Fat Lady and she is near.
😎🍸
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Observation on Warmups

And not to beat a dead horse, but Wisconsin literally had a line for players taking turns taking FTs. It’s no coincidence, that one team shot 100% from the line and is one of the best in the country and the other shot less than 50% and is bottom half of the country. One team, interested in winning, the other interested in putting on a show in warm ups.

RAPID REACTION - Wisconsin

We are truly to the 11th hour now and must win the next two games …3-3/10-7 and thinfs are still possible …especially if the trend is up before going on the road

But the clock is ticking …this is so like three yards ago when we were 12-9…and the world wrote us off ….

We need to get our best on the court and get something confidence gojng …now

Clock is ticking Steve …wake up to the alaem
And eff’ing answer with a sense of urgency
The lack of urgency, passion, intensity all season has been extremely disappointing

GAME 15 WISCONSIN: For all intents and purposes, that's a wrap

And with that the 2024-2025 Rutgers basketball season has come to a close....This team has all but run out of their nine lives to salvage a successful season. A successful season means an NCAA tournament appearance. A successful season rests on a blind faith miracle at this point. Mathmetically possible with an enormous 16 games left but that is the issue isn't. 15 games into the season sitting at 8-7 with 16 left, Rutgers has done zero to even put themselves in a resume. They are an afterhought nationally. They are going to be fighting just to make the Big 10 tournament. There is no resume. There is just one semi quality win. There are bad losses. There are bad metrics and bad predictive numbers. But beyond that the eye test is everything with this team. There is no metamorphis coming to turn an ugly worm into a beautiful butterfly and give flight to all our hopes and aspirations. There is nothing to even hint that Rutgers is capable of digging themselves out of this grave they reside in. Many saw the trouble early and perhaps now even the last holdouts are cognizant.

Obviously the loss of Dylan effected the trajectory of this game and the Indiana game. No I cannot say just if he was at 100%, the outcome of the past 2 games would have been changed. Dylan did not even look 50%. He appeared to be an old man who couldnt move out there. That means he was totally ineffective and likely hurt the team by having him in and played a big part in going down 33-17 early. Whether its flu or any other kind of injury it sucks because he is Rutgers only consistent and difference maker on offense that you can rely on each game. Its his team and it runs a certain way with him. Without him Rutgers actually played more like the Pike pounding nails, we are going to try to thread the needle with tough defense and a couple of timely shots in an ugly scrapfest. There were moments that it looked like Pike was going to pull it off. RU got so close within 3 and then was just repelled and the door rudely slammed in their face. A return in the late stages of the 2023 and 2024 offenses which we know are brutal.

For starters, RU was not ready to play this game and defend its home court. Struggled to score early and let Wisconsin just get confident right from the get go. RU down 12-3 early and that is not how you beat a Wisconsin team who is beatable but coming off an offensive high of 116. By the time RU could stablize itself and adjust, they spotted the Badgers a 33-17 and that was too much to overcome. Its a shame because played its best defense of the year in the latter stages of the first half and much of the 2nd. They chipped away and fought and hung around through adversity and got pokeways and got steals forcing Wisconsin into 16 turnovers converting them into points while generally protecting the ball themselves. For a moment there we could believe in them. The hard work and the pounding nails, you could see a classic Pikiell win in the hazy distance. At 60-57 nearing the 6 minute mark, RU had held Wisconsin to just 17 second half points in 14 minutes. An incredible stat to see given the defensive woes all year long. Alas just like this season it was not meant to me. Wisconsin closed the game out like men and did it in impressive fashion. RU's offense was shutdown while Wisconsin made shot after shot. Big credit to them because the Badgers had to work hard to get this one. In the end, a quick and deadly 13-2 over the course of the next 5 minutes sealed Rutgers fate and there with the last gasp of breath for the 2024-25 season.

I can tell you one thing though. With Dylan out, Rutgers played differently. It was not the same Rutgers. Rutgers slowed the possessions down, mucked it up and concentrated on turning Wisconsin over. That kind of gameplan does not happen with Dylan in the game. Its not a knock on Dylan, it is what it is. When Dylan it is in the game, he runs the show along with Ace. The focus is 100% on offense. That dye was cast a long time ago. Two players in particular one on offense...Tyson Acuff and one on defense Dylan Grant were unexpected highlights. I will admit and eat some crow on Grant. I said he was unplayable. Obviously I was wrong. Pike must have his methods to why he didnt play but DG stepped up big time given the opportunity in really buoying this team in the comeback. Some 3s and some blocks and some boards. 3-8f g, 8 points, 2 blocks and 3 offensive boards...probably the best all around off the bench performamce I have this year by anyone on Rutgers. Acuff made shots at times and was leading scorer with 17 points albeit on a shaky 6-15 fg in 30 minutes. How much do we take from these performances. On the latter, Acuff was the main option for offense besides Ace who was brick city. As @The RUT pointedout, Acuff was more comfortable in his position tonight with the ball. That does not happen when Dylan is in the game. While certainly it helps Acuff as volume shooter to see the ball go in the hoop, I would hesitate to put too much into this peformance given his role changes drastically when Harper comes back. Making back to back 3s and 3 overall definitely a plus but he also threw up some ugly bricks especially in the closing minutes and also had a key turnover. Certainly some plusses but still not convinced long term. Grant on the other hand has a higher ceiling right now and will be getting more minutes going forward. How many is the question and can he replicate this performance when the pace and tempo is slower than it would be with Harper in the game. I think off of this performance we will see less Martini and Hayes and less Egobole and more Summerville.

Further cementing the vultures circling the season were dismal performances from Jeremiah Williams just reduced to 22 minutes, 2-7 fg shooting and 4 points. 2 years ago, prominent posts and mods heralded his coming and that he was he a game changer. After his initial 3 game debut last year, everyone figured out and he was expected to be a leader and pivotal bridge player but now has turned into an afterthougt. J Mike had his moments today but again as a bridge player its just not enough. The bar was set so low for him early, we praise the improved play but its simply not nearly enough. Just 2 assists and if he is taking 10 shots that is simply too many for my liking. Ace Bailey was a disaster tonight. 3-16 fg, this was even worse than his debacle at Kennesaw. Plus he was in foul trouble and then goaded into an immature technical that fouled him out. Went from a phenomenal performance to a bricklaying performance in one game. Shot selection caught up with him tonight on a night we desperately needed him to perform to his press credentials. EO was awful...13 minutes and 1 board and blew his layup. He takes a small step forward then another large step back. Just not good enough. Lathan really didnt have a good game tonight, 6 points, but 4 of those on the last 2 possessions. He was a boy amongst the Wisconsin men. Derkack was okay today but again some good and his typical mistakes. He is a role player who has to be forced into more minutes because there simply isnt anyone else. Hayes had one layup but played only 4 minutes for some reason. Martini was lost as usual in 8 minutes. Pretty sobering and a reminder that this roster is not the kind of roster you compete for a NCAA bid.

Wisconsin...you see Wisconsins roster is. I know some were down on them after the departure of Hepburn and others but they brought back Crawl and Blackwell who has really blossomed this year and Tonje from Colorado State has been a super portal addition for Gard. They are so well coached and I was impressed with their ball movement. Even when their shots didnt go down, they were all great shots and everyone knew where they were suppose to be on the court. Experience and coaching matters and there was a clear difference..and without Dylan, Wisconsin easily had the talent advantage tonight. They will contend for the Big 10 title and be a tough out in the tourney. I think they struggled with RU throwing some wrinkles at them and kept the door open for RU to win the game. However their poise down the stretch in a tough environment was impressive and you can just see the stark difference between the two clubs.

There were positives tonight and that is a shock considering a double digit loss but in the grand scheme of things it seems too little too late too hollow. I refuse to fall for it. I felt going into the 3 game home stretch, RU had to win 2 to keep ANY hopes alive but likely needed 3 if we were being REALISTIC about things. Well this was likely the easiest of the 3 and each one gets progressively harder for different reasons. Now with Purdue and UCLA each one is a must win but this program is headed in the wrong direction. Nothing I saw tonight or at any other point this year shows me they are ready to turn a corner and sweep these next 2. Mathematically yes, but come on man. I am not living on blind faith and blind loyalty. I see the Fat Lady and she is near.

Grant and Acuff - The Silver Lining

Disagree on both, especially #2. Pike was very complimentary about Grant's play, saying he's been practicing hard and is starting to "get it" and took advantage of the opportunity tonight and said we're going to see more of him.
Even if you hate Pike, people really think he didn't see what Grant did out there tonight?

Being angry he didn't get more chances sooner is a different issue

OT: New York Mets 2024-2025 Off Season Thread

The article about Luis Moreno was actually funny with the reference that he is "just 25 years old". To have just barely cracked AAA level (3 appearances last years) at that age, he's hardly considered young. He's not found on any top prospects list, although he may be soon. He didn't make his Dominican Summer League debut until age 20. That's a league in which the top prospects debut at age 16. Maybe he is a late bloomer and the Mets have something here.
He name means Sidd Finch in English.
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Observation on Warmups

Appears there is little control over the players, little discipline, and the players have little respect for Pike. If we don't make the tournament this year find the money and get his a&s outa hear. If we had a quality assistant to take over as interim head coach I'd like to see him gone tomorrow.
Agreed 100%. Players running the show. Pike just cheerleader.

Observation on Warmups

Windmill dunks, between the leg dunks. He’d throw the ball high up in the air catch it and try to 360 dunk. Didn’t make any of them. And yes this isn’t a big deal mostly if it’s a thing at the end of shoot around to keep the guys loose but when you don’t attempt anything before the game other than circus dunks, that’s a problem.

That might be the saddest part
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Observation on Warmups

I said this in another thread. While I was there (about 30-45 minutes before tip) Jwill did not attempt one shot prior to the game. Not a FT not a 3pter not even a lay up. It’s just truly unacceptable, mostly for a player who truly struggles to shoot.
Maybe JWill belongs to the Allen Iverson school when it come to “practice”

The only reason to hope...

...is that we finally (almost) saw what the minute distribution should look like, as the best rotations (minus full Dylan) did not play until spotting a 14 point lead. Haven't posted in here but have been riding Acuff all season as he was clearly a great scoring option and was just never fully given a chance to get comfortable (whether it was the injury, coaching, or a combo). Grant was a pleasant surprise but showed he can 1) drive 2) rebound 3) hustle and 4) defend a big. Even if he's off scoring he can give you good minutes unlike Martini who is almost a guaranteed minus because the ceiling is so small. So, in the hospice moments of the season let me be a bit delusional and see if we can chart out some magic. Here are the player minutes/scoring production and schedule w's and L's if we want a shot. It's fun playing hypotheticals because that's the closest we're going to get to a winning season. Just some general keys. Pikiell's target used to be holding teams to 60. It should now be 70ppg and we should shoot for 75 ppg which we've done fairly well until the last two games.



Starters
Ace: 38 mpg. 18 ppg

We already know what he is and what he needs to be. For this team to be successful he has to score and do so likely over 40% from the field. If he can get out of his free throw slump this will take weight off the rest of his game. Getting about 10 boards for him is also critical.
Dylan: 38 mpg. 20 ppg
Same as Ace, we already know what he needs to do. As long as he plays like he has prior to illness, the team can be in any game.
Tyson: 20mpg. 8 ppg
Tonight showed Tyson can be the third scorer. We need two made threes out of him so need to give him 5-6 3 pt looks per game. He can also drive and hit the pull up so he should be taking 10 shots a game IMO. He's been fairly efficient all season so I trust he will do so with a higher volume consistently. He just has to be confident and Pikiell has to make sure he still has looks once Dylan comes back on the ball.
J Will: 25 mpg. 8 ppg
J Will can definitely be a 12-15 point scorer on some nights but 8 is more realistic. If it's going to be 8 it has to be an efficient 8. He needs to try to force less once Dylan comes back and look for quality shots and not contested layups. I think his strength is 10-12 footers and then the occasional open three or transition layup. He should mainly be looking to swing to Ace/Dylan/Tyson etc on the drive and only take a shot if he is playing well or Rutgers has a comfortable lead.
Sommerville: 20mpg. 8ppg
He should stay mostly the same to what he's been doing except no jumpers unless WIDE open. Hasn't proved consistent enough. Pikiell needs to get him more drop ins IMO instead of tough over the shoulder shots. How he does that? I would be coaching Rutgers if I could answer that question however I just don't think the set plays position him right under the basket and he fades a few feet outside too easily which is why he has tougher looks.

Bench:
J Mike/Derkack: 20mpg. 6ppg

This is whoever is having a better game. My initial nod goes to J Mike since he is a better on ball defender and a bit more of a threat offensively, but Derkack is useful in some situations. J Mike shouldn't be shooting 10 times a game like tonight, probably closer to 6 unless wide open. Derkack can't really shoot and is only a threat to drive so he should be used 1) if J Mike is off or his matchup is too tall and 2) if Rutgers 3 pt shooting is off. That's when his reckless driving is useful because it will force the defense to collapse and could open up better looks. We don't need his driving if the offense is flowing.
Grant: 15mpg. 6ppg
Still a wildcard but it's clear he's not afraid to shoot. One made three and a bucket around the rim would be great. It's important Pikiell instills confidence but also limits reckless shots to get efficiency out of him. Could easily be a 8-10 ppg guy but just don't fully know yet which is why I'm sticking low.
Ogbole: 8mpg. 2ppg
Don't really need Ogbole to score. He just needs to make open looks he gets (which he didn't do tonight) and free throws.

Spot minutes:
Martini, Hayes

These two really shouldn't be playing unless needed for a certain reason. Martini if you need a net zero for a span of two minutes. Hayes if we need free throws or desperation 3s.

Now, with all that said it's a frame work and will definitely fluctuate. Ace and Dylan are clear constants on most nights. J Mike and J Will are constants on defense. Let's make Tyson a constant on offense and Dylan Grant a constant on both ends. Pikiell needs to stick to this lineup and ride it the rest of the season. At this point everyone has had their chances. If you hold hold teams to 70ppg or under and make your free throws and you'll be in most games. Now let's look at the schedule and hope the lessons learned from today make us the best version of ourselves.

Q1 - Purdue (Home) W 9-7: Harper neutralizes Braden Smith. Ace shoots back to normal and the duo prove why they are top picks again.
Q1 - UCLA (Home) W 10-7: RAC is tough place for UCLA to play and long trip wears on them.
Q1 - Nebraska (Away) W 11-7: Brice Williams is cold, NEB not as good as initially thought to be.
Q1 - Penn State (Away) W 12-7: Complete the sweep by repeating the same recipe.
Q1 - Michigan State (MSG) L 12-8: Hot streak ends, MSU has our number.
Q1 - Northwestern (Away) W 13-8: Ace/Dylan better than Brooks and Martinelli
Q1 - Michigan (Home) W 14-8: Rutgers shoots well
Q1 - Illinois (Home) L 14-9: Too good of an all around team, will be blowout loss.
Q1 - Maryland (Away) W 15-9: Rutgers shuts down Queen and Gillespie
Q2 - Iowa (Home) W 16-9: Rutgers wins a track meet
Q1 - Oregon (Home) L 16-10: Oregon blows us out
Q2 - Washington (Home) W 17-10: West coast travel too much for UW.
Q3 - USC (Home) W 18-10: Rutgers plays better team game
Q1 - Michigan (Away) W 19-10: Squeaks one out thanks to a gritty performance despite poor shooting on the road.
Q1 - Purdue (Away) L 19-11: Can't beat purdue twice, Mackey is tough
Q4- Minnesota (Home) W 20-11: Q4 win, Rutgers barely escapes but keeps hope alive for post season

Two BTT Tourney Q1 wins + Princeton moves to Q2= 22-11 (10-9 vs Q1, 2-2 vs Q2, 2-1 vs Q3, 6-0 vs Q4). They can STILL afford losses at this point IF they go on a four game win streak at some point in the schedule. We just need to pray this team has a hot stretch, and now would be the time with two home games to start. I refuse to give up on this team because there are definitely flashes. We haven't seen the best version of this team and I believe we will once Dylan gets healthy.

Observation on Warmups

What did he do during warmups, doesn’t everyone love to shoot?
Windmill dunks, between the leg dunks. He’d throw the ball high up in the air catch it and try to 360 dunk. Didn’t make any of them. And yes this isn’t a big deal mostly if it’s a thing at the end of shoot around to keep the guys loose but when you don’t attempt anything before the game other than circus dunks, that’s a problem.

Grant and Acuff - The Silver Lining

If Acuff is feeling healthier and can be a scoring guard option we need

If Grant can replace Martini's minutes and bring some rebounding defense and athleticism

Ace won't have a worse game all season

Dylan was essentially a DNP

...and we were in this game with a couple minutes left. Actually pretty remarkable getting nothing from the 2 stars
No Dylan and Ace had a bad game though he was hustling. And we were still in it till the end. Bad timing on Dylan getting sick.
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