BACATOLOGY 2/17: 1st 2025 NCAA Tournament Analysis
- By bac2therac
- Men's Basketball
- 91 Replies
We need to talk about Illinois. The Illini are now just 17-10. With a NET of 20 its amazing but they can lose and lose but that NET will not fall that far. I would say there are some similarities here to the Wisconsin profile from last year but in the Badgers case I think they lost like 7 of 9. and while Illinois has been losing their share it hasnt been a complete freefall. The Badgers had built some great early ooc stuff where body of work overcame how their stretch finish was hurting their overall numbers including record so I was confident with them making the tourney. '
Still confident in Illinois because of body of work but the schedule here is brutal. They inexplicably have a game scheduled with Duke at MSG. Probably seemed like a good idea at the time. Now not so much although Duke will come in beat up. A loss there drops them to 17-11 with 3 league games left... Iowa, at Michigan and Purdue. The Michigan and Purdue games can easily be losses which puts them at 13 losses...to me they need to beat Iowa and finish 18-13 and there isnt really any issue but if they lose ALL 3 they would enter the Big 10 tourney at just 17-14. Does a 17-15 or 18-15 Illinois get in? Thats where its scary so here I think they need one more win to lock in.
7-8 in Q1, 3-2 in Q2, 1-0 in Q3 but a potential to 11-14 in Q1/2/3....NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
They have 6 wins vs schools in the field (Wisconsin, Missouri, Arkansas, Ohio State, UCLA, Oregon) so its not about adding more quality wins, its about a potential bulky loss total.
Still confident in Illinois because of body of work but the schedule here is brutal. They inexplicably have a game scheduled with Duke at MSG. Probably seemed like a good idea at the time. Now not so much although Duke will come in beat up. A loss there drops them to 17-11 with 3 league games left... Iowa, at Michigan and Purdue. The Michigan and Purdue games can easily be losses which puts them at 13 losses...to me they need to beat Iowa and finish 18-13 and there isnt really any issue but if they lose ALL 3 they would enter the Big 10 tourney at just 17-14. Does a 17-15 or 18-15 Illinois get in? Thats where its scary so here I think they need one more win to lock in.
7-8 in Q1, 3-2 in Q2, 1-0 in Q3 but a potential to 11-14 in Q1/2/3....NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
They have 6 wins vs schools in the field (Wisconsin, Missouri, Arkansas, Ohio State, UCLA, Oregon) so its not about adding more quality wins, its about a potential bulky loss total.