Going to use a template I did from previous years giving y'all just a taste of what is to come.
No...its not here yet. As you guys know I am just not a fan of early season bracketology. I know we are in the 2nd week of February but the selection show is still almost 5 weeks away. Still have a long way to go and I think bracketologists fall in love with certain schools and narratives and 7-9 conference game left for most schools. Things can change on a dime. Resumes still are not complete. There are just too many games to play. Seeding can be a nightmare at this time with schools so tightly packed around each other. Just going to try and give a rough outline here with respect to the contender for top seeds and my initial analysis will just focus on the contenders reminding everyone there are plenty of games to go which means there are tons of opportunities for some of the schools closer to the last in line to gather and collect quality wins while teams further up may stumble and not add much to their resume. Just a snapshot in time of what things look like today.
68 schools selected, 31 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 37 at larges...that is a plus one for the at larges with the Pac 12 going belly up at least for this year.
Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.
- SEC: AUBURN
- BIG 12: HOUSTON
- BIG 10: PURDUE
- BIG EAST: SAINT JOHN'S
- ACC: DUKE
- MWC: NEW MEXIC0
- A10: GEORGE MASON
- CUSA: JACKSONVILLE STATE
- WCC: SAINT MARY'S
- MVC: DRAKE
- AAC: MEMPHIS
- BIG WEST: UC SAN DIEGO
- SOUTHERN: SAMFORD
- IVY: YALE
- WAC: UTAH VALLEY STATE
- CAA: TOWSON
- BIG SOUTH: HIGH POINT
- SUMMIT: OMAHA
- HORIZON: CLEVELAND STATE
- SUN BELT: ARKANSAS STATE
- SOUTHLAND: MC NEESE STATE
- BIG SKY: NORTHERN COLORADO
- MAC: AKRON
- A SUN: FLORIDA GULF COAST
- A EAST: BRYANT
- MAAC: MERRIMACK
- PATRIOT: AMERICAN
- OH VALLEY: LITTLE ROCK
- MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
- NEC: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE
- SWAC: SOUTHERN
Here are my projected #1 seeds:
AUBURN, DUKE, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE. Very high confidence that at least 3 of these schools will wind up at #1 seeds. 3 from the SEC. They seem a cut above the rest.
HOUSTON could have a shot but right now just does not have the Q1 wins the other schools do.
So now getting to the at larges. ....37 at large bids available including 2 at large #1s. Going to group them by catagory. For this week not going to get into nitty gritty details with them but look for that in the future.
MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)
- FLORIDA
- ARIZONA
- TEXAS A&M
- TEXAS TECH
- MICHIGAN STATE
- KANSAS
- IOWA STATE
- MARQUETTE
- KENTUCKY
- WISCONSIN
- MARYLAND
LOOKING LIKELY (have built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch...example Rutgers in 2023)
- UCLA
- ILLINOIS
- MISSISSIPPI
- MISSISSIPPI STATE
- CLEMSON
- LOUISVILLE
- MICHIGAN
- MISSOURI
- CREIGHTON
SAFE FOR NOW/ABOVE THE BUBBLE (would not catagorize them as bubble but that can change with losses down the stretch)
- BAYLOR
- GONZAGA
- CONNECTICUT
- UTAH STATE
- OREGON
So that takes care of 27 of the 37 at larges that all are at least above the bubble...10 spots and there are 33 schools competing for them
BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)
- OKLAHOMA
- WEST VIRGINIA
- NEBRASKA
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- TEXAS
- OHIO STATE
- VANDERBILT
- GEORGIA
- ARKANSAS
- WAKE FOREST
WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE
- VCU
- XAVIER
- NORTH CAROLINA
- PITTSBURGH
- BYU
- DAYTON
- BOISE STATE
- ARIZONA STATE
- CENTRAL FLORIDA
- KANSAS STATE
- USC
- SMU
- UC IRVINE
- CINCINNATI
- NORTHWESTERN
- INDIANA
- SAN FRANCISCO
- SANTA CLARA
- VILLANOVA
- TCU
- COLORADO STATE
- NORTH TEXAS
- RUTGERS
Multiple Bid League
SEC: 14!
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
I will take your questions and highlight specific schools as we go through the week, Just wanted to get this out there. Putting 14 out of 16 SEC schools seems over the top and outrageous but remember it is not a prediction. Just a current snapshot in time. SEC schools still have 8 games to play. It almost guaranteed one or two schools will play themselves out of the field....
GEORGIA on my mind and let us see if Calipari can hold it together at
ARKANSAS and give them that needed push
I will get into some specifics about the A10 at large situation tomorrow and
DRAKE'S at large situation
While the bubble seems weak as it did last year...its weak until it isnt and we found that out last year. ALOT of games to be played. I cannot repeat myself enough.
