In what has been a disastrous season, Rutgers has fallen below expectations for many reasons that fans have acknowledged.
Let me preface by saying that Pike has done a tremendous job building RU into a much better program than it was when he was hired. Ending the 30 year NCAA tournament streak is of course noteworthy, and dancing two years in a row is very much a good accomplishment for a program that had been so bad for so many years . . .
That being said, Pike’s teams have arguably regressed each year since the 2019-2020 season (RU would have likely been a 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA tournament had the season not been cut short due to COVID).
2020-2021: 10 seed in NCAA tournament, lost in second round (very good season)
2021-2022: 11 seed in NCAA tournament, lost in first four (good job getting to tournament but probably still below expectations for many)
2022-2023: First four out, probably should have made the tournament
2023-2024: 15-17 record
2024-2025: Currently 10-10
The key reasons for this regression, as noted by many in other threads:
- Poor recruiting (besides this year), transfer portal additions, and player retention — as has been pointed out numerous times in other threads, Pikes 2021-2023 high school recruiting classes were very poor, with the exception I’d say being Derek Simpson (more on him later). As for the transfer portal, Pike has had a very low success rate on transfer in comparison to many other Power 5 schools. As for player retention, Pike has had multiple players enter the portal (various reasons), and at times he has not retained the BEST players (e.g. retaining JMike to Simpson)
- Poor gameday coaching — Pike has always been a defensive-minded coach, but his poor offensive game plan (criticized by many) has been an issue, especially the last couple seasons. There is not enough movement/cutting on offense, too much ISO, etc.
- Being too late on season-long adjustments: As many have stated, Pike took way to long to give Dylan Grant more minutes instead of a guy like Zach Martini — there wasn’t significant change until the Wisconsin/Purdue games, when it should have been after the Alabama game in Vegas. In 2022/2023, Pike should have given Derek Simpson more minutes than Mulcahy after the upset against Indiana at the RAC (December), but he didn’t make significant changes until mid-February
Many will attribute this regression to NIL and the transfer portal. While I do agree to an extent, it’s a misconception that Pike can’t win with his past formula he had most success with from 2019-2023 (see Houston, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin as current examples).
And amidst recent struggles, one HAS to recognize that the program was an absolute mess when he took over the job. It has taken so many coaching attempts to right the ship, and we finally found a coach who has had success and brought two (three if not for COVID) NCAA tournament appearances.
So is Pike “the guy”? Both the “Pike should be on the hot seat” or the “Pike is the coach for the next decade” crowds have compelling arguments, but in my opinion it’s very unclear and tough to say. I tend to lean towards no due to the reasons I listed above being VERY glaring. Additionally, it may be a hot take but I think Pike’s teams underperformed in the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 seasons (particularly 2021/2022). Looking at the 2021/2022 team, I think Pike had a very good roster that with better game day preparation in several games (particularly the 3 consecutive Quad 4 losses) should have been an easy 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA tournament and comfortably earning an at-large bid rather than on the bubble on Selection Sunday.
That being said, Pike will likely remain the coach for RU the next few years minimum, so here are the key ways he can rejuvenate his old formula for winning WITH the NIL and transfer portal environment:
- Have a strong, consistent foundation with high school recruiting/transfer portal additions: Similarly to other strong Big 10 schools (Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.), RU should look to recruit about 4 players each year, with all 4 being hopefully being top 150 recruits. Of those four top 150 recruits, maybe 1-2 of those players are top 100 four star recruits. This will build a strong foundation and depth for the roster. As for the transfer portal, look to bring in 2-3 transfers each year. Rather than all of the transfers being from mid-major schools, try to have at least one be from a power 5 school. From my memory, I believe since 2019 the only power 5 transfers RU has recruited have been Jacob Young (Texas) and Aundre Hyatt (LSU) – both ended up being very solid players for Rutgers, and would honestly be the 3/4 best players on this year’s team.
- Strong emphasis on using available NIL funds on player retention: The best sustained success in CBB, especially today’s environment, is by having an experienced roster and maintaining as much continuity as possible. By not chasing the TOP power 5 transfers and high school prospects every year, it will allow for more available NIL to be budgeted on player retention, especially now with revenue-sharing for RU.
- As for game day coaching, I believe Pike needs to bring in some offensive-minded coaches to help with each game plan. However, with my previous two suggestions, it is not as paramount as it is with this year’s current roster, because I believe more experience and depth can offset this (see RU’s success from 2019-2023).
I know it’s a really long analysis, but I hope you found it insightful. Go RU!
steelersdepot.com
sports.yahoo.com