Wouldn't say you would be wrong on this either.
Probably a combination of factors: What you said, plus giving back allocations to areas of the university like the football program, plus ... well ... I'd actually be VERY surprised if as many as 100 tickets were given up ... if there are about 1000 level 100 tickets available, 100 opening up would be just a 90% retention rate - 10% or so given up. I just do not believe it. Season tickets just do not turn over that rapidly, they just don't.
I know for a FACT (directly from very, very good sources, very senior in the athletic department) the following:
1) Last Spring (in April 2024), the football program allocation, AND EVEN allocations for Schiano, was completely taken away.
2) Last Spring (in April 2024), in front of the hype of Harper and Bailey, there were "a number of 6 figure donors" ahead of me who had not gotten 100 level season tickets. And that is a quote from 2 senior level athletic department executives.
3) Last Spring (in April 2024), AFTER the initial allocations were made, there was a waiting list of 1300 ticketholders (not tickets, but ticketholders, asking generally for multiple tickets each).
4) TWO Springs ago, in April 2023, I was specifically told by 2 different senior sources that in April 2022 (3 Springs ago), fewer than 30 Level 100 SEATS opened up, closer to 20-22 seats opened up. And I did not "rate" getting any of those based on my priority points level (in the top 500 or 600). But there were Level 300 seats available.
5) In May 2023 I was given an update on potentially upgrading from Level 200 seats to Level 100 seats and was told just 10-15 Level 100 seats actually opened up for the 2023-24 season.
Draw from that what you will.
One thing I draw from it that there is no way 100 Level 100 seats opened up, even after the disappointment of last season. I think that prior to last Spring, with the huge surge in demand in anticipation of Harper and Bailey, the number of Level 100 seats opening up EACH season, ranged from a low of 10-15, to a HIGH of 30-40 in any given off-season.