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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 488 Replies
Well, it's as if I wrote the NWS discussion, lol. The NWS and other forecasters are now all playing up the snowfall potential as predicted, with the NWS now calling for a general 2-4" snowfall for everyone along and NW of 95 through 7 pm Sunday (noting there will be more to come) except maybe just 1-2" towards the coast (especially SENJ), but also noting that more is possible than that and less if the Euro is right, plus they acknowledge the risk of mixing/rain up to 95 as shown on the CMC. Precip looks like it will start by 1 pm towards Philly/SNJ (where game impacts are looking much more likely than yesterday) and by 3-4 pm in CNJ/NYC and will continue with temps likely falling into the 20s and precip going until 1-3 am Monday. Whatever accumulates will be with us through next week with the bitter cold coming.
Lee Goldberg also has just about everyone at 2-4", with 1-2" south of Toms River and for far NW areas (Poconos/Catskills), but he also noted that there will likely be some 4-6" amounts, most likely from NYC on NE-ward but maybe even back towards CNJ. In addition, the 18Z GFS and ICON came in even snowier than 12Z (a general 4-7" on the GFS and a general 3-6" on the ICON), so a 6" snowfall is now on the table, IMO, given that and the NWS/Lee Goldberg comments and especially considering the likelihood of snow ratios >10:1 has gone up with the snowier solutions, i.e., all of the models showing 2-4/3-6" amounts at 10:1 ratios are showing the potential for 12-14:1 ratios. Edit: the 18Z Euro bumped snowfall amounts up a bit from 1-2" to 1-3" for most.
However, we're still 60+ hours out so even the baseline 2-4" is far from set in stone, but it's looking much more likely than it did last night and we're getting closer to the event when significant changes become less likely (but not impossible). Personally, my biggest "concern" from a snow perspective is the CMC scenario, where the models trend more amped/stronger and more NW, bringing rain/mix into the picture for SE of 95/the coast and maybe even up to 95, holding down accumulations.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2025
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday into Sunday night, the strong arctic cold front will
cross through the region early Sunday morning advecting a much
colder airmass into the region during the day. As it does so, an
area of low pressure will also be developing over the Deep South
near the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure
will ride along the frontal boundary and strengthen as it moves off
of the Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon.
From here, forecast guidance varies greatly and ultimately will
determine what will occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the
track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large portion of
the region is likely to observe accumulating snowfall (similar to
what the 12Z/GFS depicts). If the track of the low is suppressed
further south and east (similar to the 12Z/ECMWF), then accumulating
snow may only be confined to coastal areas. Whereas if the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, then the most significant
snows will be focused north and west (depicted by the 12Z/Canadian).
Regardless of the variance in global guidance, have seen an increase
in overall QPF values and in snow probs. Thus, there is an increase
in forecaster confidence that accumulating snow is on the table
Sunday afternoon/evening especially since cold air will be
advecting in from the northwest. So with this being said, the
greatest potential for higher accumulations are for areas along
the I-95 corridor and points north and west where the initial
forecast calls for 2-4" of snow through 00Z Monday. Lesser
amounts upwards of 1-2" are forecast near coastal areas through
the same timeframe. Obviously, a lot can change over the next
60-72 hours as we obtain more hi-res/short range forecast
guidance and storm total snowfall covers the `full duration` of
the event, so stay tuned for the latest details to the forecast
over the coming days!
Summary: A 2-4" snowfall for the region (Philly-NJ-NYC) is starting to look likely on Sunday given improving model consensus on that outcome. 4-6" amounts have been seen on some models and no models are showing significant areas <2" (other than the CMC which is an outlier; see below), so it's looking like 4-6" is still on the table as is 1-2", but likely not less than that or more than 6". Precip starts in the 1-3 pm timeframe for most (1 pm towards Philly/SNJ, 3 pm for CNJ and towards NYC) with temps around 32F to start, but dropping quickly into the 20s for most of the storm, which will likely be over by 2-4 am on Monday. Accumulations are likely on all untreated surfaces, so road conditions will go downhill quickly and could still be difficult on Monday morning and with temps in the deep freeze after that for several days, it'll look like deep winter here.
And huge win for RU tonight!
Details: The 18Z models had no surprises/major changes vs. 12Z (just minor differences), so let's get right to the 0Z runs tonight and there were mostly minor changes for the models, except that the Euro went from a 1-2" snowfall to a 2-4" snowfall for most. So we now have every 0Z model showing 2-4" or 3-6" amounts for just about everyone (Philly-NJ-NYC), except for the CMC which still shows 6"+ just NW of 95 and a lot less towards the coast, but it's clearly an outlier. Outliers have been right before, although not that often. Details below in model order they come out.
Based on us now having 3 straight model suites showing at least decent consensus and better consensus now at 0Z than it was at 12Z earlier today, confidence is certainly higher in most of our area getting a 2-4" snowfall, with a 3-6" event also very possible. More than 6" for anyone is pretty unlikely, just like <1" is now very unlikely for anyone, unless the CMC scores a huge outlier coup. However, that's not how mets put together forecasts, so we should expect the NWS to probably come out with maps showing 2-4" for most with maybe some 3-5" spots and possibly 2" or less at the coast. This wouldn't be too far off what Lee Goldberg is still predicting, i.e., 2-4" for everyone, with 4-6" for points NE of NYC. We're now within ~60 hours of the start of the event, so changes are still possible, but significant changes are becoming less likely.
- The ICON showed a bit less precip/snow than 12Z, with a general 3-4" for everyone.
- The GFS was a bit snowier than 12Z, showing 4-7" for just about everyone (highest amounts towards the coast)
- The CMC again showed 6"+ starting on a SW to NE line about 5-10 miles NW of the TPK with 2-4" along the TPK and <1" just 10-15 miles SE of the TPK and nada SE of there to the coast. Very steep gradient.
- However, the CMC ensemble mean is much further SE than the Op with 3-5" NW of 95, but 1-3" SE of 95 to the coast, implying the Op might be a bit of NW outlier relative to its own ensemble mean, which happens sometimes.
- The UK is similar to 12Z with a general 3-5" event for most, except 2-3" near the coast, due to less precip falling (not rain)
- And finally, the Euro is a bit snowier than 12Z, showing a 2-4" event for most, except 1-2" near the coast, due to less precip (not rain), which is similar to the UK.
- Note that all but the CMC (the only one showing rain/mix) are still generally <32F for the duration with falling temps into the 20s during the snowfall, which could lead to elevated snow/liquid ratios (maybe 12-15:1 - same mass, more depth) if those temp verify - and if the snow crystal growth aloft is good, although it's too early to make that assumption, so all of the snowfalls I quoted above are at 10:1 ratios.
- The Euro AIFS (their new AI model, which has been pretty accurate) shows a 4-6" snowfall for everyone.
- The NAM showed basically no snow, but it's past the end of its useful range (usually best inside 48 hrs and the snow starts around 66 hrs), so the pros are discarding it. Similar thing for the RGEM, which looks almost identical to the CMC (both Canadian models share code). These models will be taken more seriously starting around tomorrow night.
