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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 488 Replies
Let's start the 0Z model thread (all using Kuchera, which seems reasonable with decent snow growth and cold columns along/NW of 95) and now that these model runs are <18 hrs before the event, the mesoscale/high resolution/CAM-allowing (convection) models become much more useful, so will include them here - and they might piss off the Shore crowd, lol, as they're all showing much less rain/mix at the coast, so much more snow. If the globals confirm this, expect to see upward adjustments in forecasts. So here are the meso/high-res/CAM models, which come out faster (they're not global).
Edit (10:15 pm): wow, the NWS has already bumped snowfall amounts up a bit along 95 and about 1" cross the board SE of 95 to the coast in NJ and they explain below how this is due to the early 0Z models, as discussed above.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
901 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
-- Changed Discussion --
Meanwhile near the I-95 corridor, this is where the forecast will be
the trickiest in terms of Ptype. With temperatures right around if
not just above freezing here as the precip begins, it may actually
start as rain before turning over to snow as dynamic and
evaporational cooling effects take hold. Then, as the low tracks up
the coast through the day, a mix with or change back to rain or
sleet may occur in the afternoon for a time before any mixing flips
back to snow before ending Sunday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory
was issued for this area. However, the early signals from the
00Z guidance suite tonight suggests that the amplification will
be less than previously anticipated so this would result in a
potentially weaker system, leading to more snow further south
and east. With this being said, have subtly upped forecast
numbers by about an inch or so across the coastal plain early
this evening. Considering this, may have to further expand
Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings further south
and east, but we`ll leave that for the mid-shift to handle in
the coming hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --
- The NAM shows a general 4-6" event for literally everyone except 2-4" for Cape May and 6-8" for NYC and NE-ward
- The NAM 3km (high res) shows a general 3-6" even everywhere except for SENJ south of Toms River, which get 1-3".
- The HRRR shows a 4-6" event for almost everyone, except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River
- The RAP shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 2-4" for AC to Cape May.
- The HRW-FV3 (will be the new NAM someday) shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 0-4" for SENJ south of Toms River
- The RGEM shows a general 3-6" from just SE of 95 through the rest of the region to the NW, with 1-3" SE of 95 to the coast and with the 1" line from Toms River to Bridgeton.
- The ICON continues to be the least snowy model with 2-4" near 95, 3-5" NW of 95 and 1-3" SE of 95 with the 1" line from Toms River to Millville.
- The GFS shows 4-7" everywhere - even Cape May gets 3-4".
- The HREF (high-res ensemble forecast, which is one of the best inside 24 hrs) shows 4-6" for everyone (except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River) and 6-8" for many a bit NW of 95
- And the CMC's failure is complete as it now shows a general 3-6" for most with 6" or more well NW of 95 and 1-3" for most of SNJ south of Camden to Toms River. I'm glad I stuck to my guns in generally ignoring this outlier model.
- The UK shows a general 3-5" for most with some 6" spots and shows 1-3" SE of a line from Keansburg to Bridgeton (and <1" south of Toms River at the immediate coast).
- And the Euro shows a general 3-6" for most, with 1-3" SE of a line from about Bridgeton to Lakewood (the 3" line).
Edit (10:15 pm): wow, the NWS has already bumped snowfall amounts up a bit along 95 and about 1" cross the board SE of 95 to the coast in NJ and they explain below how this is due to the early 0Z models, as discussed above.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
901 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
-- Changed Discussion --
Meanwhile near the I-95 corridor, this is where the forecast will be
the trickiest in terms of Ptype. With temperatures right around if
not just above freezing here as the precip begins, it may actually
start as rain before turning over to snow as dynamic and
evaporational cooling effects take hold. Then, as the low tracks up
the coast through the day, a mix with or change back to rain or
sleet may occur in the afternoon for a time before any mixing flips
back to snow before ending Sunday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory
was issued for this area. However, the early signals from the
00Z guidance suite tonight suggests that the amplification will
be less than previously anticipated so this would result in a
potentially weaker system, leading to more snow further south
and east. With this being said, have subtly upped forecast
numbers by about an inch or so across the coastal plain early
this evening. Considering this, may have to further expand
Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings further south
and east, but we`ll leave that for the mid-shift to handle in
the coming hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --
