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OT: Stormy and Potentially Snowy from about 2/8-2/22? (pg 9); OG Thread: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 400 Replies
Summary: First pattern thread of the winter. Just about every medium/long range model (especially the ensembles of the GFS, CMC and Euro, which are used most for trend forecasts beyond about 7-8 days) continues to show (as mentioned in the Christmas Eve snow thread) a major pattern shift to a cold to possibly very cold regime starting by next weekend, with multiple possible storm systems after that, some of which could bring snow (possibly substantial amounts) to the eastern US and our area for much of January. And just about every well-known meteorologist is honking about the upcoming pattern change. Yes, I know it's usually relatively cold and snowy in January, but we're talking likely colder than normal (and possibly much colder than normal - especially in the SE US) and snowier than normal (NB gets about 8-9" of snow, on average in Jan) from about 1/4 through 1/25 and given the paucity of snow for most the past 3 winters this is noteworthy. The cold looks like a lock, at least through mid-Jan, while the snow is always much iffier to predict more than a week in advance, so we'll wait and see. And based on the @e5fdny weather clause, any specific storms that materialize will be covered in separate threads when and if they look real (usually 4-5 days out), with the first possible threat around 1/6. Hope some find this interesting.
Details: The video link, below, from John Homenuk one of the best medium/long-range forecasters out there explains the meteorology behind the pattern change much better than I could, but briefly, instead of the warm pattern we expect to have for the next week, which features strong west to east jet stream flow from the mild Pacific across the US, a strong ridge is forecast to build from Cali to Alaska forcing the jet stream to ride up and over it and then down east of the Rockies, bringing very cold polar air down from Canada into the eastern half of the US, plus high latitude "blocking" is expected with another strong ridge up in NE Canada/Greenland acting to "hold" the cold air in place in the eastern US and to slow down the storm systems that are expected to rotate through the eastern US from about 1/5 onward.
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With regard to the teleconnections, which are often used to forecast long range patterns, we're forecast to have the weak La Nina continue and to have the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) move into phases 8 and 1 (associated with cold/snowy here) and to have a sustained combination of a -AO (Arctic Oscillation) and +PNA (Pacific/North America), which is the combo we've had for ~50% of 6"+ snowstorms in NYC, as per the famed DonSutherland on AmericanWx (see his graphic below and his post linked below), plus we'll also likely have a -NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and a -EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). Cold air in place, plus moisture from storms could mean significant snow, although it's still too early to predict specific storms (but they are showing up on the long range guidance) and it's always possible the cold/snow just don't work out, as very cold air can suppress storms to our south or if the cold air weakens for a bit, a storm could always cut west of us bringing mix/rain. DT/WxRisk does a great job explaining all of the teleconnections in the video link below.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61402-january-2025/?do=findComment&comment=7513129
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In addition, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is on board for colder than normal weather for much of the eastern US from 1/4-1/10 (with normal precip amounts) and is also predicting colder and wetter than normal conditions from 1/11 through 1/24 in their Weeks 3/4 forecast; just showing the temp graphics below. FYI, I only did one pattern thread last winter, for a warm/low snow first half of Feb, which verified, followed by a cold and potentially snowy period after that, which did not verify at all for cold, but did verify for above normal snowfall for most from 2/12-2/17. Overall, since 2017 I've done 1-2 pattern threads per winter, featuring 10 of 13 temperature patterns verifying and 9 of 13 snowfall patterns verifying (with below normal, normal and above normal as possible outcomes, random guessing would mean 4 out of 13 verifying). That means the pros kind of know what they're doing.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
Summary: So, the likely colder than normal and potentially snowier than normal period from 1/4 through 1/25 for our area, which I posted about on 12/28, has now come and gone and it was quite cold (4.7F below normal in New Brunswick), but was only slightly above average in snowfall (5.2" in NB vs. 5.0" for 22 days in Jan on average), due to simple lack of precipitation; I use NB as a decent, but imperfect representative for the Philly-NJ-NYC area. Given the way I "score" these pattern threads, colder than normal is being in the bottom 1/3 of January's and 4.7F places this period in 22nd out of 132 years of NB records, so colder than normal verified. Snowier than normal, however, did not verify for NB, as the snowiest 1/3 of January's would've had 5.6" or more of snow vs. the 5.2" that fell.
However, the "pattern" certainly provided well above normal to record snowfalls for most of the eastern US south of 40N, but not for most areas north of 40N, so it was a very near miss for our area, although most winter weather nuts were still pretty happy with 4-7" of snow during this period (we got 5.7" in Metuchen) and especially the 1/20 snow and cold that followed, providing a beautiful snowscape all this past week. It certainly made for lots of fun at our weekly soccer match today. Peeking ahead, there could be some wintry weather 2/1-2/2, but right now it's looking more wet than white (except well NW of 95), but we're far enough out for that to change. Lots of good discussion about the entire month of January with regard to the pattern, snow/precip, temps, and this weekend's storm in the thread below from AmericanWx.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61402-january-2025/
Details: Specifically, with regard to temperature for our area, 1/4-1/25 was about 4.7F colder than normal in New Brunswick (the location I use for these pattern discussions as I simply don't have time to evaluate many locations and NB is a good indicator for at least CNJ if not the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and a bit beyond), which puts this period firmly into the bottom 1/3 of Januarys, which is what I would call "colder than normal" with the other two outcomes, obviously, being normal (middle 1/3 of outcomes) and above normal (top 1/3). 4.7F colder than normal is 26.1F vs. a mean Jan temp of 30.8F, which puts this period at about the 22nd coldest in the 132 year recorded weather history for NB (bottom third would be 1st thru 44th coldest). Only 5 days during this period were above normal and the last 5 days of the period averaged 15F below normal, which is seriously cold.
With regard to snowfall for our area, again using NB as the measuring stick, NB got 5.2" of snow from 1/4-1/25 (1.2" on 1/6, 0.5" on 1/11, 0.3" on 1/16, and 3.2" on 1/20) and on average NB gets 7.1" of snow in January, so for 22 of 31 days, one would expect 5.0" of snow in NB, placing this year just slightly above average, but certainly not in the top 1/3 of January's (required for me to call the period snowier than normal), as the top 1/3 had snowfalls >5.6" (pro-rated for 22 of 31 days in Jan). Most locations in our area (Philly-NJ-NYC) got close to average snowfall for the period, with the exception being far SNJ, which got 6"+ just from the 1/6 storm. The table linked below summarizes the 132 year weather record for NB, including temps and snowfall.
https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.php?stn=286055&elem=snow
Looking back at this period, it was obviously cold enough for there to be substantial snow, not only in NB and our area, but across most of the eastern half of the US, as temps were also generally below normal to well below normal for the eastern U for this period. But unfortunately for snow lovers, the Philly-NJ-NYC area (apart from far SNJ), just didn't get enough precip to provide above normal snowfall. Same was generally true for all of the NE US, but clearly was not true roughly south of the 40N parallel, as much of the eastern US south of that line was impacted by two snowstorms during this period.
The first was a major storm that hit much of VA/MD/DE/SENJ/NC/TN/KY (and even northern AL/MS/GA) with 4-12" on 1/6 and the second was the historic storm last week that set snowfall records all across the Deep South from TX to NC, including all-time snowfall records in places like New Orleans, Mobile, and Pensacola (and the biggest snowfall ever in Florida, 9.8" in Miton). So the "pattern" certainly delivered above to way above average snowfall south of 40N, but not for areas N of 40N, in general. Note that the graphic below is snowfall for the entire winter through 1/25, but that all of the snow that fell for areas south of 40N fell during the 1/4-1/25 period, whereas some of the snow for our area and the NEUS fell in December (especially well NW of 95 where major snows fell).
Looking more closely at the precipitation our area received during this period, this January overall is likely to end up being the driest January on record for many, including NYC, Newark, New Brunswick and Philly, all of whom have had <0.5" of precip this month, so far, with little to none expected through the end of the month unless this weekend's storm arrives late Friday and puts down >0.1" of precip before 2/1, as each location only needs about another ~0.1" of precip to not be the driest January ever. We might get a few rain/snow showers on 1/29 and that's about it, as the next storm likely doesn't make it here until 2/1, although some models are showing a late Friday arrival with rain on all of the models into 2/1, but some showing some snow possible later on 2/1 into 2/2. Note that the very dry January extended well into New England, also. As an aside, the lack of precip in January means that most of our area's drought situation has worsened again after a fairly wet December.
Looking Ahead: This coming week looks seasonable with most days having high temps anywhere from the mid-30s to mid-40s and the following week looks fairly similar temp-wise, while forecasts are calling for fairly normal to maybe a bit above normal precip, but no torch or deep freeze patterns look likely for at least the next 2-3 weeks. With regard to snow threats, there could be a dusting S of 80 on Wednesday with up to 1" N of 80 from a weak clipper system and then all eyes turn to this weekend, when a more substantial storm takes aim at our area with the potential for 1-2" of precip from late 1/31 through the weekend. Currently all but one of the global models shows that being almost all rain (with some snow N of 80 and more substantial snow N of 84), but the GFS is showing decent snowfall down to 276/195 after 1"+ rain, so there are scenarios where this system could turn out a bit more snowy. Way too early for a thread, plus I'll be in Florida from 1/29-2/4, so for this one, I'll be rooting for rain, lol, as I hate missing snowstorms while I'm away.
