Without reading any other posts, or listening to the post game press conference by Pikiell ...
Ugh. I am a genuine optimist ... but it is really tough holding on to that sentiment at this moment. That was a really disappointing game, very poorly played by RU. There is really no other way to frame it.
Some General Comments:
1) Before the season started, to me, at least, it was obvious that RU COULD be an NCAA team under certain conditions:
a) Harper and Bailey both played as 1st or 2nd Team All Big Ten players over the course of the season. I think GENERALLY that is occurring. Bailey's shooting has been inconsistent, true, and Harper's stats have taken a bit of a hit with 2 games played after the flu and not being fully recovered, but generally, this has been happening. So ... SUCCESS.
b) A 3rd scorer emerged - though in my opinion it did NOT have to be the same player every game. RU has had 7 games in which they have NOT had a player other than Harper and Bailey score in double figures. No player other than Harper or Bailey has scored in double digits more than 4 times in 16 games!!!! So, while I thought it did not have to be the same player every game, that is ridiculous ... and again, in SEVEN (7) of 16 games NO player other than Bailey or Harper has been in double digits. The tally? Here are the number of times a player has scored in double digits this season (not including Harper or Bailey): 4 Times - Williams, Sommerville; 2 Times - Derkack, Hayes, Acuff and Ogbole; 1 Time: Martini, Davis. So ... FAIL.
c) Williams provided off-court AND ON-COURT leadership (by performance - and I figured he'd be the most likely 3rd scorer more often than not, averaging 10-11 ppg). Yes, he is physically tough ... but he has not been as solid defensively as last season, has forced the ball way too much offensively and has almost as many turnovers as assists (31 assists to 27 turnovers), and has only averaged 7 ppg in 24 mpg ... so FAIL
c) Ogbole/Sommerville would be able to be an effective combo for 35+ mpg, together averaging perhaps 12 ppg and 10 rpg ... and be at least average defensively. So ... they are averaging 11 ppg, 8 rpg ... short of the MINIMUM needed, frankly ... and between them are NOT at least average defensively ... so a FAIL
d) TWO of the transfers (between Martini, Acuff, Derkack and Hayes) would be productive contributors - and not necessarily the same 2 every game, but TWO PER GAME. In SOME fairness, Acuff is still working his way from a foot injury - but he has been much better the last 2-3 games. Derkack has energy and moments - but WAY too many awful games. Martini ... uh ... total miss and fail. Hayes ... uh ... his defense has been REALLY, REALLY bad, making it tough for him to find minutes ... and now he is 1-12 from 3 his last 4 games, shooting just 33% on the year, and has only made as many as 2 3-point shots in a game a total of 4 times in 16 games, and has made ZERO 3-point shots 7 times ... against Wagner, St. Pete, Monmouth, Merrimack and Kennesaw St he looked like a 8-10 ppg scorer ... since then in 11 games he has a total of 5-25 3-pointers and a total of 17 points. Uh ... FAIL.
e) Ogbole and Davis would show some development, and along with Williams provide a FLOOR and a BASE for team defense.
2) Only Point "A" from above is occurring, generally.
3) I also thought it clear from the roster construction, even before the season began, that against any reasonable team (P5 or possibly even a mid-major - not low major team), if NEITHER Bailey NOR Harper played well, RU would likely lose ... but there would ALSO be games in which BOTH played very well, and RU would win - even if not favored. This remains true.
4) What is now obvious, is that because the supplementary players are generally ineffective MOST games, RU needs Bailey and Harper to BOTH play at All-Big Ten levels in any game they wish to win ... So, going forward, in the remaining Big Ten schedule, if only 1 plays at a high level in that game, RU will likely lose that game.
I am not going to comment on the TEAM aspects of this particular game, except to say that Harper is clearly not fully recovered (though a bit better than versus Wisconsin), Bailey did not have a great game - though he only forced 3 shots I saw, and was a very willing passer in this game (got lost on defense several times), and there was very little the overall team did well - except hold their own on rebounds for the most part. I will say one of the most shocking stats of the game is that RU allowed Purdue to shoot 24-32 from 2-point range ... that is RIDICULOUS ... Partly because Braden Smith is THAT good, and I have not seen a team run the 2-man screen and roll better than Purdue, ... not in years ... Purdue has been doing that ALL SEASON and no one has come up with a solution to that (maybe Auburn).
Individual Players:
1) Bailey: Was good shooting 3's, good rebounding (not great but good), hit 3-4 FT - but a really costly miss of a front end of a 1 and 1 at a crucial time ... had a couple of steals and a block - but also got lost a few times on defense allowing easy baskets.
2) Harper: A bit better than vs Wisconsin (he couldn't even move against Wisconsin), but though he played 28 minutes, he clearly was not 100% from a conditioning, strength and stamina standpoint - and to have a 3-point shot BLOCKED by the 6'0" tall Smith? No lift, obviously.
3) Who goes 3 ... Acuff? Okay, Acuff: Earned his minutes, even though he forced a couple of shots. He IS playing solid enough (not great, but okay enough) defense to stay on the floor for his offense. Plus 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 0 turnovers. Looks like he now has the best chance the rest of the season of being RU's 3rd scorer.
4) Sommerville (since he started): Um ... again forced at least 1 shot, tried to body up, but on several plays got tossed around like a rag doll by Kaufman-Renn. Just 2 points and 3 rebounds in 21 minutes. Could defend the pick and roll at all - but truthfully, no RU player was able to do that this game.
5) Williams - did little good except hustle, and then got hurt (after he was body slammed on a moving pick with no call)
6) Ogbole: Meh ... some solid rebounding (5, with 3 offensive), a couple of decent offensive moves, but hsi defense was ... average at best, versus Kaufman-Renn.
7) Derkack - awful. He finally TOOK, and made a pull-up 12' jump shot off a dribble penetration ... but then proceeded to drive to the rim EVERY OTHER TIME, missing every time ... 1-7 FG. Did little else - was at best okay on defense.
8) Davis: An empty game this game - he WAS the best rU player on=e on one versus Smith, but was poor on offense with 3 poor turnovers, and only took (and made) 1 FG. But if he is not going to assist and create shots for himself and others, and IS going to turn the ball over, his minutes had to be limited - and they were, this game.
9) Grant: Yes ... a fine game ... high energy, rebounds, 3-3 FG, including 1-1 from 3 ... MORE TIME .. and appropriately a DNP for Martini.
10) Hayes - another 0-3 from 3, and not great defense. As pointed out above: 5-25 from 3 his last 11 games, 17 total points, now 33% 3-point FG on the year.
www.nj.com