Notice how I slipped into the title that Illinois was ranked coming into the game!
Well ... I was actually hopeful coming into the game, even without knowing Harper was going to play. I thought Michigan is a better team (despite the poll ranking), and in particular, Michigan was the worse match-up - and though RU fell short against Michigan, mainly due to a horrendous shooting performance by Bailey (many other things worked), I felt it unlikely that Bailey would have as poor a shooting night, and I saw some very good progress defensively for RU the last couple of games. Also, Illinois, I felt was a good match-up for RU, despite them being the best rebounding team in the COUNTRY, really. For one, Illinois is NOT a good shooting team, either overall or from 3-point range - in fact they are very poor from 3-point range ... yet still they hoist up a huge number of 3's: 48% of their FG tries. Its a mystery why they do that considering how bad they are at shooting 3's. If RU took 45%-50% of their shots from 3 on the season, shooting just 31%, RU fans would be hanging Pikiell out to dry even more than they are now. Also, Illinois was MINUS 2 net turnovers/game, and causes very few ti=urnovers (forcing just 10 per game). So I thought RU had a decent shot.
I was actually a little worried when Harper was not only playing, but starting, as a hobbled Harper, I worried could put the team in a hole before it became clear he could not help ... like versus Wisconsin and Purdue.
Well ... I guess I was correct in my pre-game optimism about the match-up in general, and incorrect about my worry about Harper, eh?
So ... it is not clear whether this game has any real meaning for what the team might be able to accomplish this season - in particular, if RU has any chance to make the NCAA after the hole they have dug. However, it does have meaning on several levels:
a) It is a big help towards positioning RU for making the Big 10 tournament (must finish 15th or better). RU is now 5-7 in conference (for the moment RU's overall record is irrelevant - unless RU strings together some consecutive wins - must make the Big 10 tourney is the 1st concern). This puts RU in a scrum, in a 4-way tie or 10th in the Big 10 with a 5-7 record, with Nebraska (RU has the tiebreaker), Indiana (Indiana has the tiebreaker) and Oregon (RU has not yet played them). Iowa is 14th, at 4-7, a half game back (RU plays them next week). Northwestern (RU has the tiebreaker) and Minnesota (RU has not yet played them) are tied for 15th, each at 4-8. Penn St (RU split - so not sure the tiebreaker - too early) is 17th at 3-9 and Washington (RU plays them on the road later) is last at 2-9. FYI, right ahead of the 4-team tie at 10th are tied for 8th a 5-6 USC (RU gets them at home), and a 5-6 Ohio St (Ohio St has the tiebreaker). FYI, Illinois is at 7-6, 7th in the conference, and should RU have a run in them, and are able to tie Illinois, RU now has the tiebreaker (RU is just 1 1/2 games behind Illinois).
b) It is clear that Pikiell has NOT lost the team - they are still playing hard for him and the staff (and each other), and still are buying what Pikiell is selling. This is hugely important both for this season and for future seasons and recruiting.
c) What is ALSO clear (and I do not look at advanced stats - but to the eye), Pikiell FINALLY has the team beginning to play defense the way he wants them to. It may not be all the way there, or where he really wants it to be, but there is clearly significant progress made developing the defense. I note that this is the 3rd game in a row that I have noticed that RU's HELP ROTATIONS, especially on the high screens, are significantly better. RU is defending the high screen much, much better. Of course, there are still breakdowns, and occasional miscommunications. But these are much less frequent. And what you are now seeing is the switch, the cut-off of the passing lane to the rolling player, followed by the relatively quick getting back to the shooter who accepted the screen ... plus on different types of plays you are seeing the weak side help defense rotating much better, to the right spots more often, and the tertiary rotations to cover the defender coming to help also occurring more often - which leads to much better recovery to challenge 3-'s off the ball movement of the offense.
d) With both Bailey and Harper apparently 100%, and when they both play well, you can now see how scary RU might be to any opposing team. If RU continues to play like this, and even improve their defense more (very possible), RU will be one team NO ONE wants to face in the Big 10 tourney. And RU may need a huge run, maybe even winning the tourney, to make the NCAA.
Okay, to the game, specifically ...
Overview:
1) Wow, what a start ... 23-6 to begin the game. After a little bit of a herky jerky start for both teams, RU rolls out a 15-2 run to take that 23-6 lead, fueled by Bailey catching fire, ridiculously good rebounding (something like 9-2 start in rebounding), great floor play by Harper and Davis, solid defense, and yes, a little cold shooting by Illinois. Even after RU cooled down and made some errors (like 2 bad plays by Williams), ,RU still had a 14-point lead at 31-17 with 4 minutes left in the half.
2) With 4 minutes in the half, Pikiell rested Harper (with Acuff), and RU went dry (not blaming Acuff, just saying factually this is what happened). Illinois had a mini 6-0 run, during which Grant airballed a 3, Bailey had to force a bad shot as the shot clock expired, and Derkakc, Davis and Bailey (again) missed shots. But RU exchanged a few baskets and ended up 37-29nat the half - which was fine. And RU ended up with that lead taking just 5 3-pointers, (1-5), by holding Illinois to 30% FG and 2-17 from 3, plus out-rebounding Illinois, and net +2 on turnovers. Bailey and Harper were both very effective, with 12 points each.
3) RU began the 2nd half with a bang, with 2 terrific baskets by Grant and were up 42-31 1 minute into the half..
4) With RU up 45-35, Illinois began their 2nd run, starting with Ivisic going inside 2X vs an overmatched Grant (he was covering him because Grant could chase Ivisic at the 3-point line) - plus Sommerville had picked up his 3rd foul and was pulled. From 45-35, Illinois outscored RU 13-2 to take their 1st lead since it was 0-2, then extended to lead 50-53 (a 18-5 run). At the start of that run, RU had in succession, almost, a Grant missed 3, a Harper turnover, a Williams missed 3. RU called time out, and then had a strange line-up: Harper, Davis, Grant, Derkack and Martini ... which did not help at first, being that Derkack missed an inside shot, and Grant missed another 3. . But down 47-48, RU slowly began to get its rhythm back: A Harper 3, to go up 50-48, but after Illinois scored 5 straight, and then the teams swapped scores, and RU trailed 52-55.
5) And then with 10 minutes left, RU took command of the game, at 52-55. At this stage, Bailey had 16 points and 6 rebounds, Harper had 17 points, Martini had 1 point, Sommerville had 4 points, Davis 3 points, Grant 5 points on 2-9 FG, Williams had 5 points, and Hayes, Acuff and Derkack were scoreless. That sets up the last 10 minutes. RU outscored Illinois 15-7 to take a 5 point lead, and 21-10 to take a 6-point lead (the latter at 71-65, with 5 minutes left). In that 5 minutes, in order, Hayes hit a 3, from Martini, Martini hit a 3, from Harper (I think), Williams hit 2-2 FT, then another 2-2 FT after an offensive rebound off a Harper miss, Sommerville 1-2 FT off an offensive rebound, Harper a 3 in transition off a ridiculous saved steal (Bailey assist), Davis 1-2 FT, Harper a great proto-typical drive to the rim, Davis had a terrific defensive rebound and Williams hit a ridiculous reverse hook/scoop in transition ... boom ... 71-65. The rest of the game was RU defending, Bailey rebounding and Williams and Harper hitting their FT's (and Bailey).
Offense:
1) RU was extremely patient on offense, for the most part. Sure, there were some shots early in the shot clock by players like Grant and Davis. But for the most part, RU was both patient - but "urgent" at the same time. It sure helps when Harper appeared to be 100% ... and controlling the offense. But Bailey was also extremely patient. Williams was a little wild - and Davis missed a couple of shots - but Davis was not out of control (and another 2 assists with 0 turnovers). But in the 2nd half, Williams aggression was more controlled, and led to 8 FT's. Grant was the main one who took too many shots. One example of patience was how Harper ran his screen and roll - and how Williams also (Williams keeping the defender on his back very well). Another example of patience was Bailey mostly just taking what was given - so Illinois tried to take away his 3-point shooting ... and Bailey did not force it - with Harper being effective, he did not have to ... but took advantage repeatedly of Illinois putting either shorter players on him (so he posted), or slower players on him (so he drove and cut for open shots).
2) RU was judicious with its 3-point shooting ... with the notable exception of Grant. Yet even so, ALL of Grant's 3's WERE wide open. Outside of Grant, RU was 5-10 3-point FG - very good. More importantly, RU was able to get numerous good 2-point shots ... and 34 FT's (and at least 24-26 of them were before the end game). RU took only 27% of their total FFG tries from 3-point range, even lower than their season average.
3) Harper, Williams, Davis and Bailey were all willing passers, especially of the penetrate drive and kick ... but also on back-cuts and baseline cuts. RU has had more games where they had a higher percentage of made FG's being assisted (just 12 out of 24 in this game) - but also worse ... Grant and Williams being 1-8 from 3 reduced the potential assists.
4) RU generally took care of the ball. Williams had a couple of careless turnovers, Harper had 3 turnovers ... but overall, RU had just 9 turnovers - meaning more chances at scoring.
5) RU had a very good offensive rebounding night, grabbing 16 out of their 35 missed FG's, 46% of misses (it was actually 15 of 35 misses, since RU got 1 offensive rebound off a missed FT - a rarity for RU). Still, very good. Bailey was great on the offensive boards, and so was Grant (who despite having a somewhat difficult game did have 5 offensive rebounds). And Sommerville chipped in with 2 offensive rebounds ... and Hayes with a HUGE one near the end of the game off his own missed lay-up.
6) RU was terrific with its FT shooting, which has been a problem in many games. While RU did get 8-10 FT's in the end game, still RU had a lot of FT attempts during the game due to its aggressive drives ot the basket. And this game the right guys mainly were taking them: Harper 10-11, Williams 7-8, Bailey 4-4, Sommerville 3-4 ... 25-28 amongst those 4.
7) Individually, Harper was great, Bailey was very good, Williams was assertive, especially in the 2nd half, repeatedly drawing fouls on moves to the hoop - and making his FT's. Sommerville had some good moments, Hayes and Martini took few shots - but were each 1-2, and each made a key 3 - on back to back possessions. Grant was the fly in the ointment - 1-6 3-point and 2-10 FG - too many shots ... but jeez, he was open for all those 3's, so what are you going to do? Davis also missed a few shots ... but did have one of the best scoring plays of the game, with a baseline to baseline drive and made lay-up - fouled and made the FT.
Defense:
1) I referred to this above - and will not expand much further. Without using advanced analytics, which I do not know how to use, I pay attention to the raw stats, and MY eye test. There is no doubt in my mind that RU's defense is improving. The team is visibly doing significantly better in defending the high screen (a HUGE problem for much of the season), significantly better rotating to cut off passing lanes on that high screen - and other screens, significantly better in returning to their assigned defender AFTER help defense or switches are made, and significantly better contesting 3's during rotational help defense and scramble situations. And this has been visibly imporving for the last several games, not just this one game.
2) RU forced 13 turnovers, through 8 steals, plus pressure forcing bad passes and travels. While 13 is not a very high number of forced turnovers, it was good for a +4 turnover rate in RU's benefit. And RU got 18 points off those 13 turnovers.
3) RU, overall, besides just turnovers, were terrific in transition off their defense (turnovers and missed shot defensive rebounds). It helps having Harper at full strength, as he is very good in transition. But Bailey was great in transition also. And Davis and Williams also like to push in transition. As a note,
RU's transition DEFENSE was very good. That was helped by the offense only committing 9 turnovers, and by RU grabbing 18 offensive rebounds. Still, RU scored 24 points in transition - but held Illinois to just 10 points in transition - and ZERO non-turnover transition points.
4) RU was particularly good defensively in the 1st half, holding Illinois to 30% FG (anchored by a 2-17 3-point FG effort by Illinois). Illinois was able to be much more effective in the 2nd half - fueling their big run to take the lead. BUT ... RU reclamped down, and I think held Illinois to 0 FG's for a 5-minute stretch in the last 8-10 minutes of the game. Overall, Illinois shot just 41% (versus 44% being their usual FG average), and 21% from 3 on WAY too many 3's. And RU was able to defend mostly without fouling, with Illinois getting only 19 FT's to RU's 34. When you jack up 46% of your shots from 3 that is going to reduce your FT tires - though RU DID foul Illinois at least twice on 3-point close-outs.
5) We MUST give Davis and Williams particular shout-outs for terrific defense. Yes, Jakucionis had foul trouble (thank you to Williams who kept forcing Jakucionis to foul him - Jakucionis covered Williams, mainly). Still, he got 27 minutes, and was just 2-8 (a very late FG - had been 1-7), and had more turnovers than assists (3 turnovers to 2 assists). Williams or Davis covered Jakucionis, exclusively. Williams in the 1st half - but then after Riley heated up, Williams was shifted to Riley when Davis came into the game and Davis covered Jakucionis. GREAT defense limiting such a talented player. The natural tendency would be to compare Harper and Jakucionis (and Harper was brilliantly better in this game). But they never covered each other, at all.
6) Other individual defenders who deserve a mention: Bailey was very solid, except he did struggle a little when Riley got hot. But even though Riley scored 18 points and had 6 assists - excellent number - he was not that efficient, going just 6-16 FG with 4 turnovers (thanks to Williams in the last 10 minutes of the game who picked Riley's pocket once, and forced a travel another time, with Sommerville's help). But Bailey did have 3 blocked shots - including one of the games highlights when he blocked Riley's 3-point try, and had a dunk on a good pass from Harper who had rebounded the block. Bailey also controlled the defensive boards late in the game when RU needed some defensive rebounds. Harper was decent - he did get 4 steals - which was great - but was not quite a s good defensively as that mighgt have indicated. MArtini was very solid in this game, I thought - really being physical against much bigger players (0 rebounds, though). Grant was overmatched, unfortunately, against Ivisic and Johnson inside. He has been better and will be better,. This was just not his game. Dortch gave 11 minutes of important bodying up, committed 4 fouls (just too skinny), but battled without killing RU while giving Sommerville, Grant and Martini important rest.
Players:
1)
Harper: Gotta start with him, no? Wow ... who would have thunk? First, I am surprised he had recovered enough to play ... and then even more so when he looked 100%, and fully normal before his flu and ankle injury. Harper was simply exceptional in all ways ... other than the blemish of 3 turnovers. Stretching the o? 3-5 from 3. Getting into the lane and scoring? 4-10 FG, PLUS ... 10-11 FT (kept getting fouled). MAKING FT's? Yup, 10-11 (up to 73% FT). Facilitating? yes, 5 assists. Rebounding? Yup ... 5 rebounds. Defense? Yes - decent overall defense, but the flare of 1 blocked shot and 4 steals (though I think 2 of the steals were Illinois being pressured by Davis or Williams into loose passes that rolled a bit and Harper was in the right spot to scoop up the ball). Boy is RU better when he is playing ... Duh.
2)
Bailey: His first really good game at home, I think ... he was terrific, I thought. Solid in basic defense (Riley did get some baskets off him), good close outs on 3's - except for the one foul. 3 blocked shots. 11 rebounds - including 5 offensive rebounds, and 2-3 HUGE rebounds in the last 4-5 minutes of the game when RU really needed them. Illinois took away any reasonable chance at 3-point shots by putting a guard on him to defend - and he did not feel a need to shoot the 3 over those defenders (Harper's presence, maybe?). So he only took 2-pointers, and 12 of the 13 were good shots (he had to force i FG as the shot clock expired), and went 7-133 FG ... plus 4-4 FT. He is now up to 69% FT, from below 60% earlier in the year. Oh yeah ... 2 assists.
3)
Williams: Excellent defensive job on Jakucionis ... and late in the game on Riley. Very aggressive driving the basketball, leading to 7-8 FT's (was 3-7 FG- which is fine ... though 0-2 3-point). A little out of control, as has often been the case this season. But still, just 1 turnover, and the defense and those FT's! Also, no assists.
4)
Davis: I know Sommerville had 7 points and 4 rebounds. But I thought Davis was generally excllent in this game, despite 1-4 FG. He played 28 minutes, and was in the both relieve Harper of the entire pressure of running the offense and ball handling ... but MOST IMPORTANTLY to defend against Jakucionis and the combo of Boswell and Gibbs-Lawhorn. Those 3 players average 35-36 points and 9 assists per game, and between Davis, Williams, Harper and Bailey )who covered Boswell at times), RU limited those 3 to 19 points (on 8-22 FG and 0-9 from 3-point range), and 6 turnovers with just 3 assists. Davis also had 4 rebounds. And another game of ZERO (0) turnovers - to 2 assists.
5)
Sommerville: Had foul trouble and a couple of easy shots missed. BUT ... 4 rebounds, physcal defense, 3-4 FT, 7 points and improved defense of the high screen and with help defense.
6)
Grant: Covered above in several areas ... a tough game for him ... 1-6 3-point (though all were wide open), 2 consecutive shots blocked in one possession, overmatched on the low post. He has done better both offensively and defensively, and will have better games I am sure. This was not one of them. He DID have 7 rebounds, including 5 offensive rebounds.
7)
Martini: A solid game ... 1-2 from 3. A nice assist to Hayes. Very energetic effort being physical on defense without fouling. Unfortunately, 0 rebounds. Despite just 4 points a good contribution in his 18 minutes.
8)
Dortch: Energy, 2 rebounds and a really nice assist. But mainly just gave 11 minutes of bodying up (4 fouls) - just a bit skinny, but did serve his role.
9)
Acuff, Derkack, Hayes: 13 minutes between them, but only Hayes was a positive contributor in THIS game: Hit an important 3, with RU down 3, to start RU's rally. AND though he missed a easy driving near-lay-up as the shot clock ran down, he grabbed his own miss for a HUGE offensive rebound with 1:10 left in the game, RU up 6.
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