I haven't had much time to fire out an article for TKR yet because of other stuff going on in my personal life and with work but here are some predictions and important bullet points for the upcoming season.
1. Rutgers finishes 21-10 overall and 12-8 in the Big Ten. There is a special buzz in the air around Piscataway and the 2024-25 season is likely to be the most anticipated in decades for Rutgers hoops. Steve Pikiell and company have built a roster with experience, talent, and playmakers. Now it's time to put up or shut up, and produce results on the hardwood that can give this promising program the respect it deserves. While it isn't the sexiest OOC schedule in the world, it's a much tougher one than in years past under the Pikiell regime. After all, Pikiell is taking a calculated risk playing a Q3/4 road game at Kennessaw State and will take his Scarlet Knights to Sin City to face off against an improved Notre Dame squad, a national championship contender in Alabama, and a potential Q1/2 opponent on the last day of the MTE. Then Rutgers must turnaround and hit the road to face off against Big Ten foe Ohio State (where they have never won) and then face three straight rivals in Penn State, Seton Hall, and Princeton. It's a tall task from the early going but this stretch will teach us a lot about this team. How resilient and how tough they are. Should they fold, it could be a real uphill climb the rest of the way. If you want to prove you are one of the Big Ten's best and perhaps one of the best teams in the country, these are the games you need to win. It is imperative Rutgers gets off on the right foot in their early December Big Ten matchups and also avoids landmines along the way in the OOC schedule. While I don't think Rutgers will be perfect in the OOC stretch, I do think they should finish no worse than 9-2 with zero Q3/4 losses. The Big Ten as always is a grind and just about anyone can beat each other in this league. It happens year after year after year. It's all about matchups, and how well does Rutgers match up with other teams in the Big Ten. That is why I think Rutgers will finish 12-8 in the Big Ten.
2. Rutgers earns 6-seed in NCAAT. Rutgers does have somewhat of a challenging slate in the OOC schedule and they will have to navigate a few difficult stretches throughout the season, but Steve Pikiell and company have built a roster that should be good enough to earn the Scarlet Knights a 6-seed in the NCAAT. No question there is going to be tremendous pressure on the freshmen Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper to perform at 'top-level' day in and day out on the hardwood but the supporting cast around them needs to carry their weight too. As veteran leaders of this team, Zach Martini and Jeremiah Williams will have to ensure the youngbloods stay focused and zoned in on their mission to win games and not to get caught up in the hype surrounding Piscataway this season. Rutgers will have to rely heavily on a deep backcourt to generate offense and push the tempo while finding creative ways to get the ball in the hands of PJ Hayes for the game's knockout punch. The biggest questions entering this season is how will Emmanuel Ogbole and Lathan Sommerville perform in the frontcourt and defend more experienced big men? We got a taste of it in the exhibition against St. John's and it wasn't pretty. Rutgers will have to adjust throughtout the season on the defensive side of the ball and find better ways of generating rebounds. Rutgers has several key games on their schedule that if they win those games, it should surely boost their resume and get them back to the NCAAT as a single-digit seed. They have the talent and playmakers, now it's time to put their foot on the gas pedal and don't look back.
3. Rutgers gets revenge on Michigan State. Michigan State has generally had the upper hand in this match up in recent memory after Izzo and Sparty embarrassed Rutgers in East Lansing last year. Tom Izzo and Sparty have avoided The RAC now for about 3 years and come February it will be 4 years. This year's game is rumored to be at Madison Square Garden, and what a statement it would make for Rutgers if they were to outlast Sparty in the Big Apple and in front of a national audience on CBS. This game comes at a critical juncture during the season and would be a massive Q1 opportunity for the Scarlet Knights if they can pull off the marquee victory. Michigan State should be a Top 25 team by the time these two teams meet. I fully expect Rutgers fans to pack The Garden to the gills.
4. Beware of Princeton. As I stated earlier, Rutgers will enter a difficult stretch from the time they play in the Vegas MTE to the moment they face Princeton in Brick City. And you better believe Mitch Henderson and his Tigers will be ready for Rutgers. Rutgers will enter the matchup with Princeton after playing Notre Dame, Alabama, a Q1 opponent yet TBD, Ohio State, Penn State, and Seton Hall. The Scarlet Knights can ill afford to have a letdown game to Princeton. Last year in Trenton, the Scarlet Knights entered the matchup with the Tigers extremely unprepared and were ambushed from the start of the game which led to a disappointing early season loss. This is a game Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce surely have circled on their calendar and for more reason when they will tip off against their former teammate Zach Martini.
5. Frontcourt issues. It often goes overlooked, but I think Rutgers will struggle in the frontcourt this season, especially at the five. Cliff Omoruyi leaving for greener pastures at Alabama surely did not help this program and Pikiell's inability to bring in a well-rounded big man in the transfer portal during the offseason didn't do justice either. If the plan is to play Ogbole majority of the minutes and rotate Martini and Sommerville in-and-out of the five-spot, this could be a problem for Rutgers majority of the season. The frontcourt is certainly going to have its challenges this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball when they face teams with quality big men (Alabama, Michigan, Indiana etc. to name a few) due to the lack of experience and size. Martini may be Rutgers most experienced player that could play some minutes at the five-spot but he is surely undersized when going against some of the more talented big men in the conference. Although, Sommerville has the offensive skillset, can he adapt and improve his defensive prowess? On the flip side, can Ogbole show the world that he's improved his offensive game? We heard all off-season how he improved his game but it needs to translate on the hardwood. Also, can Ogbole become a reliable defender in the post due to his massive size and presence?
6. Brutal stretch, Part 1. From the moment these Scarlet Knights arrive to the KSU Convocation Center on November 24th to December 21st, they face an absolute gauntlet of a stretch of games. During that stretch Rutgers will face a test in Kennesaw State (11/24), Notre Dame (11/26), Alabama (11/27), Q1/2 team (11/30), Ohio State (12/7), Penn State (12/10), Seton Hall (12/14), and Princeton (12/21). This team is going to surely be tested and we're going to learn a lot about this team during this stretch. It might actually be the most important stretch of this team's season because it's an opportunity to garner some quality wins along the ride and build the case for an NCAA Tournament-worthy resume. Rutgers must at all costs must avoid a letdown at Kennesaw State, finish 2-1 in Vegas, defeat Ohio State on the road, start 2-0 in the Big Ten, and deliver a death blow to their in-state rivals Seton Hall & Princeton. If Rutgers can somehow manage to get through this stretch at 7-1, they will be in fabulous shape and have set the tone entering the remainder of the Big Ten season.
7. Brutal stretch, Part 2. Well, I just got done talking about the brutal stretch they have from late November to mid-December, but what about the immediate brutal stretch that lies ahead in January? Rutgers has tilts against Indiana (1/2), Wisconsin (1/6), Purdue (1/9), and UCLA (1/13). Again, this is another tough stretch for Rutgers, but call me crazy, this could be a manageable tough stretch. Rutgers will face three of the four teams during this stretch at The RAC. It would be extremely impressive if they can nab a win on the road at Indiana but Rutgers really needs to at worst finish 2-2 during this stretch. I would be elated if they went 3-1 or better during this stretch, but realistically I see the Scarlet Knights finishing 2-2.
8. BONUS - Injury bug. It's not often talked about much, but Rutgers hoops has been hit with the injury bug to major contributors on their roster each season, and it's hurt this team immensely. So, it's going to be very important that Rutgers stays injury-free this season. If key players like Williams, Harper, Bailey, or Martini get hit with injuries, it could spell trouble for this team.
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