10 Wins Looks Possible

[Psu2014]

I sat through last years miserable game in the rain in happy valley. I was more miserable during that game than even temple 2002, because we had no business losing to PSU, the way we did.

With no offense, and missing Darius Hamilton along with 3/4 of our secondary game us an inability to stop the running game, and passing game, and our defense tired out. That won't be the case this year. We are much better coached and conditioned, and our QB play should be much improved. i expect a contest similar to 2014, with Rutgers ultimately prevailing this time, thx in part to much better coaching.

You misunderstood me. Saquon ran for 250 against Ash's OSU defense loaded with NFL talent. He arguably had a better game against them than he did against a depleted Rutgers defense. If you're hoping a new defensive scheme will slow him down - especially given your three linebackers are all new - I think you're in for a rude awakening.

 

[RUChoppin]

A lot of love for Dantonio and MSU on this board. And short memories apparently. Dantonio went 22-17 over his first three seasons at MSU. PSU went 31-8 over that period, including 2-1 against MSU and both wins were blowouts.

He then had two very good seasons with the Kirk Cousins/Le'Veon Bell team pre-sanctions, going 22-5, including 1-0 against PSU, which posted a combined record of 16-10. So, combined pre-sanctions, Dantonio's MSU went 44-22 compared with PSU's 47-18. If two seasons (2010/2011) are enough for you to make sweeping judgments about the pecking order of programs, especially considering PSU was better than MSU even in the first sanctions year that followed, I'll remind you of the same thing I brought up when comparing MSU to Michigan: The Spartans have a LONG way to go before they are considered in the same realm as the upper echelon programs on a year-in, year-out basis. This current run is but a blip on the radar in the grand scheme of things.

Now, MSU graduated a ton of players who were the backbone of a successful program over the past three seasons. Can it avoid a season like 2012, when it went 7-6 post-Cousins (despite Bell still running wild)? If it accomplishes that, and shows it can maintain this success once Dantonio moves on, then let's talk about MSU "arriving" and "passing teams by." But for now, let's pump the brakes just a little bit.

That's fair, but the claim that MSU's rise was due to PA State's fall is similarly overstating.

Dantonio's a good coach, has built a strong program, and has a proven track record. Trying to shine reflected light onto Franklin on a "first 5 seasons" basis is silly, as is saying that he has only been successful because PA St and Michigan have been down.

So far, Franklin's been all style and little substance. He's like the Anna Kournikova of college football coaches at this point.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

That's fair, but the claim that MSU's rise was due to PA State's fall is similarly overstating.

Dantonio's a good coach, has built a strong program, and has a proven track record. Trying to shine reflected light onto Franklin on a "first 5 seasons" basis is silly, as is saying that he has only been successful because PA St and Michigan have been down.

So far, Franklin's been all style and little substance. He's like the Anna Kournikova of college football coaches at this point.

To be fair, the comment that started this was: "D'antonio built his legacy in the B1G at a time when both PSU and UM were down."

The poster didn't say he did so because PSU and UM were down; he simply noted the timing. Either way, I think it's certainly relevant to consider that MSU's past three years (and the past six if you'd like) did in fact occur as two of the sport's nine best programs historically struggled. That feeds back to my overarching point: Let's see what happens with MSU over the next one, three, five years. Can it sustain this? My guess is no.

Further, I don't believe the other poster's point was to compare Franklin to Dantonio. I think he was highlighting the comparable starts to their career as evidence why people are jumping the gun with this "fire Franklin" stuff. Should Dantonio have been fired after year three in East Lansing? (And he wasn't even dealing with sanctions, as Franklin has and still is to a degree.) Something tells me MSU would have regretted that.

 

[rutgersal]

You misunderstood me. Saquon ran for 250 against Ash's OSU defense loaded with NFL talent. He arguably had a better game against them than he did against a depleted Rutgers defense. If you're hoping a new defensive scheme will slow him down - especially given your three linebackers are all new - I think you're in for a rude awakening.

Fair enough. I'm counting on our best player, darius hamilton, and the rest of our DL to penetrate the backfield and make life tough for Barkley. they did a good job limiting PSUs running game two years ago.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Fair enough. I'm counting on our best player, darius hamilton, and the rest of our DL to penetrate the backfield and make life tough for Barkley. they did a good job limiting PSUs running game two years ago.

To say the difference between Penn State's OL and RB from two years ago until now is night and day would be an understatement.

 

[RUChoppin]

To be fair, the comment that started this was: "D'antonio built his legacy in the B1G at a time when both PSU and UM were down."

The poster didn't say he did so because PSU and UM were down; he simply noted the timing. Either way, I think it's certainly relevant to consider that MSU's past three years (and the past six if you'd like) did in fact occur as two of the sport's nine best programs historically struggled. That feeds back to my overarching point: Let's see what happens with MSU over the next one, three, five years. Can it sustain this? My guess is no.

Further, I don't believe the other poster's point was to compare Franklin to Dantonio. I think he was highlighting the comparable starts to their career as evidence why people are jumping the gun with this "fire Franklin" stuff. Should Dantonio have been fired after year three in East Lansing? (And he wasn't even dealing with sanctions, as Franklin has and still is to a degree.) Something tells me MSU would have regretted that.

How are the first five years in any way relevant to whether he should be fired or not? Time spent at Cincy or Vandy really has nothing to do with why MSU or PA St would fire their coach. The poster was trying to make Franklin out to be more than he is by juxtaposing him with a successful coach.

If you want to put them together, though, to see what may have been going through the minds of the administrations at their respective schools after the first two years... there's really no comparison.

Dantonio took MSU from 14-21 (.400) over the prior three seasons to 16-10 (.615) over his first two. Franklin has taken a team that had gone 24-13 (.649) the prior three seasons to 14-12 over his first two (.538).

Not sure what the knock is on Dantonio, to be honest. He's a solid coach with a solid resume. He has brought MSU to national prominence, all while having just a single recruiting class ranked better than 31st over his first seven seasons. The past three seasons have all seen the Top 25, so he's actually got more talent to work with now than he's had in the past.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

What issues do you think we have that will prevent us from winning 10 games? we are two years removed from a team that should have won 9 games but blew the PSU game in the last few minutes. With Hamilton back and in the best shape of his career, better qb play, continued development of robert martin and hicks, as well janarion grant ready to break out, i don't see a team on the schedule we can't beat, aside from OSU and UMich.

"what issues"?

- very difficult schedule
- ZERO returning starting experience at LB where we lost a ton of it
- one of the worst secondaries in the nation that is not just going to be 70 slots better no matter how much of a better coach Ash is than Flood was
- Hamilton? We'll see how much he plays as the year goes on. Same with Turay. Still, he's one man.
- lack of quality depth in most units
- we still don't know who our QB is going to be
- we lost by far-and-away our best play maker and our best OL is gone as well
- Hicks? Isn't he like 4th team?
- who cares what happened 2 YEARS AGO against Penn State?
- we're 1 year away from losing 8 games

...should I go on?

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

How are the first five years in any way relevant to whether he should be fired or not? Time spent at Cincy or Vandy really has nothing to do with why MSU or PA St would fire their coach. The poster was trying to make Franklin out to be more than he is by juxtaposing him with a successful coach.

If you want to put them together, though, to see what may have been going through the minds of the administrations at their respective schools after the first two years... there's really no comparison.

Dantonio took MSU from 14-21 (.400) over the prior three seasons to 16-10 (.615) over his first two. Franklin has taken a team that had gone 24-13 (.649) the prior three seasons to 14-12 over his first two (.538).

Not sure what the knock is on Dantonio, to be honest. He's a solid coach with a solid resume. He has brought MSU to national prominence, all while having just a single recruiting class ranked better than 31st over his first seven seasons. The past three seasons have all seen the Top 25, so he's actually got more talent to work with now than he's had in the past.

I'm not knocking Dantonio. He's one of the best coaches in college football. I'm just pointing out that it is premature to elevate MSU as a program to that upper tier.

As far as your point about comparing Franklin to PSU before he arrived. I don't think it's quite fair to lump the 2011 team into that equation seeing as how it didn't really have to deal with the scandal or the impact of any sanctions. Excluding that team, you're talking about an O'Brien Penn State that went 15-9 in regular season games compared with a Franklin Penn State that has gone 13-11. And it has been discussed ad nauseam on this board how Franklin has had to operate with roster limitations that OB did not.

Franklin's book in Happy Valley is still being written.

 

[jason21psu]

How are the first five years in any way relevant to whether he should be fired or not? Time spent at Cincy or Vandy really has nothing to do with why MSU or PA St would fire their coach. The poster was trying to make Franklin out to be more than he is by juxtaposing him with a successful coach.

Please don't read into what I write or put words in my mouth. I specifically said:

My basic point is that for the "Franklin can't coach" crowd is that is the jury is still out and we'll see how he does over the next 2 years.

If you want to put them together, though, to see what may have been going through the minds of the administrations at their respective schools after the first two years... there's really no comparison.

This is the part that I find the most issue with as a PSU fan/Alum. There is 0 indication that our administration is growing tired of Franklin. He's graduating players at a rate even better than Joe. He's been nearly perfect in the community wrt outreach and community service. The program is clearly getting better, I know you guys think otherwise but it is. Does he need to start winning more games? Absolutely. But he has through 2017 at a minimum to show he can. Now I'll concede some fans, and outside media are saying the last 2 years haven't been good enough but the administration appears perfectly happy. Why would Sandy double-down on the negative recruiting statement if she was going to need reasons to fire the guy?

 

[RUChoppin]

Franklin's book in Happy Valley is still being written.

Sure it is - but right now, no one's expecting it to make any best seller lists any time soon.

Please don't read into what I write or put words in my mouth. I specifically said:


This is the part that I find the most issue with as a PSU fan/Alum. There is 0 indication that our administration is growing tired of Franklin. He's graduating players at a rate even better than Joe. He's been nearly perfect in the community wrt outreach and community service. The program is clearly getting better, I know you guys think otherwise but it is. Does he need to start winning more games? Absolutely. But he has through 2017 at a minimum to show he can. Now I'll concede some fans, and outside media are saying the last 2 years haven't been good enough but the administration appears perfectly happy. Why would Sandy double-down on the negative recruiting statement if she was going to need reasons to fire the guy?

Yeah... it was your guy who brought that up, not me.


Your statement was:

I appreciate the optimism but there is 0 evidence Ash is a better coach. Would you be surprised that Franklin has a better record than D'antonio through the first 5 years of their careers and against tougher competition?

Specifically, you were talking about whether Ash was a "better" coach, and followed it up by saying Franklin had a "better" record than Dantonio through the first 5 years. And to top it off, you went and added that Franklin apparently did it against tougher competition. (which somehow made his feat even more impressive... even though his actual wins came against weaker teams than Dantonio).

It was Cheesesteak Vegas who brought in the "firing Franklin" stuff by misinterpreting your post:

Further, I don't believe the other poster's point was to compare Franklin to Dantonio. I think he was highlighting the comparable starts to their career as evidence why people are jumping the gun with this "fire Franklin" stuff.

 

[MADHAT1]

The SOS rankings you listed appear to take into account the games played AFTER THE FACT, not PRESEASON, so any perceptions you have about teams' opponents entering last season are irrelevant to these rankings.

I'm not here for bragging rights about last season's schedule - PSU was a mediocre team, so what's the point, and if I wanted to I could just point to the thrashing that occurred September 19. Rather, I was just questioning why anyone would be surprised about PSU's SOS from 2015 considering it played six teams that won 10+ games. In fact, I wouldn't have been surprised to see it even higher than the mid-50s. Whether PSU won or lost those games means nothing in the context of measuring SOS.

I said I was surprised Penn St had a 54 SOS rating
You asked why and I answered
Is after the fact a problem for you ?

I was more surprised at PSU's SOS rating before the 2015 season being 50
http://www.fbschedules.com/2015/03/2015-college-football-strength-of-schedule-ncaa-method/
With the records of its OOC opponents in 2014.I thought that would make the Nits 2015 SOS higher, but conference opponents do help keep it down.