2 things going on in my mind right now…..

[Greene Rice FIG]

SLUMPS——they are easy to get in to and easy to get out of. It could be as simple as making 1 play for an individual.

DATA——when my mind says one thing and the data says another usually data is right. The data has RU as favorite vs Michigan. I realize when you adjust the data to a Mag injury (which is different than looking at our performance with Mag out) adjustments are needed

Trust what Vegas numbers are. I’ll bet it is UM - 3. We have a 35-40% chance of winning and not 0-15%


If there is a 3rd…..this is an elimination game for both teams. You may want to throw a lot of things out the window because you don’t know who will be tight and who the pressure will get to.

 

[RUfubar]

SLUMPS——they are easy to get in to and easy to get out of. It could be as simple as making 1 play for an individual.

DATA——when my mind says one thing and the data says another usually data is right. The data has RU as favorite vs Michigan. I realize when you adjust the data to a Mag injury (which is different than looking at our performance with Mag out) adjustments are needed

Trust what Vegas numbers are. I’ll bet it is UM - 3. We have a 35-40% chance of winning and not 0-15%


If there is a 3rd…..this is an elimination game for both teams. You may want to throw a lot of things out the window because you don’t know who will be tight and who the pressure will get to.

Great point
I'm constantly amazed about how often Vegas is correct & counter to my own cognitive and emotional reasoning

 

[RUChoppin]

Great point
I'm constantly amazed about how often Vegas is correct & counter to my own cognitive and emotional reasoning

Vegas has been trying to get a bead on us without Mag:

3/5 vs. Northwestern: -4.5 (lost by 12)
3/2 @ Minnesota: -8.5 (lost by 1)
2/26 @ Penn St: +2.5 (won by 3)
2/23 vs. Michigan: -5.5 (lost by 13)
2/18 @ Wisconsin: +1 (won by 1)
2/14 vs. Nebraska: -14 (lost by 10)
2/11 @ Illinois: -5.5 (lost by 9)
2/7 @ Indiana: +4.5 (lost by 6)

Over those 8 games, we've come in below Vegas' expectation 6 of 8 times. According to the line, we were favored in 5 of those games and won just 2... interestingly, both games where our opponent was favored

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

So you are saying we have a 66.666666% chance of winning as a dog on Thursday?

 

[RUsojo]

SLUMPS——they are easy to get in to and easy to get out of. It could be as simple as making 1 play for an individual.

DATA——when my mind says one thing and the data says another usually data is right. The data has RU as favorite vs Michigan. I realize when you adjust the data to a Mag injury (which is different than looking at our performance with Mag out) adjustments are needed

Trust what Vegas numbers are. I’ll bet it is UM - 3. We have a 35-40% chance of winning and not 0-15%


If there is a 3rd…..this is an elimination game for both teams. You may want to throw a lot of things out the window because you don’t know who will be tight and who the pressure will get to.

Kenpom has Michigan, Bart RU. Both Michigan in last month only. not sure what you’re talking about

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

How this team gets up and beats UM who we've beaten ONE TIME given the way they are playing would be a miracle.
So there's a chance lol.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Kenpom has Michigan, Bart RU. Both Michigan in last month only. not sure what you’re talking about

I am talking about probabilities of us winning by the "computers" is must higher than the probabilities from emotional Rutgers fans.

 

[Scangg]

Even if you have almost no faith in Rutgers at this point, it's still basketball. There is a chance Michigan is just ice cold

Don't give up. Don't ever give up

 

[RUChoppin]

Even if you have almost no faith in Rutgers at this point, it's still basketball. There is a chance Michigan is just ice cold

Don't give up. Don't ever give up

It's possible Dickinson trips on his ego on the way into the arena and can't play. Anything's possible!

 

[Rufaninga]

So we were 0-2 in the Win & you're In category.

Does the data say 3rd times a charm or 3 strikes... ?

 

[Degaz-RU]

SLUMPS——they are easy to get in to and easy to get out of. It could be as simple as making 1 play for an individual.

DATA——when my mind says one thing and the data says another usually data is right. The data has RU as favorite vs Michigan. I realize when you adjust the data to a Mag injury (which is different than looking at our performance with Mag out) adjustments are needed

Trust what Vegas numbers are. I’ll bet it is UM - 3. We have a 35-40% chance of winning and not 0-15%


If there is a 3rd…..this is an elimination game for both teams. You may want to throw a lot of things out the window because you don’t know who will be tight and who the pressure will get to.

I would add a third point:

WORN OUT -- in retrospect, I think your early season concern that we were playing our starters too much was generally correct, as this team just looks completely worn out, both mentally and physically.

I don't know what the alternative would have been, though. I guess we could have rested the starters earlier in the cupcake blowouts, but in the other 24 games, we generally needed to play our starters 32+ mpg, as Woolfolk and Reiber became ineffective once conference play started, leaving us with just a 7-man rotation (with the other guys getting spot minutes). And then when Mag went out, things got only worse.