3/8 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

[BigEastPhil]

Bac - with GTown and Oregon State winning, guess we’re locked into 8/9 seed? Is that right?

Also can we in theory be paired in same bracket as Michigan as 1 seed as a 8/9 seed given we only played them once during season? I thought someone posted this can happen given exemption is only if you played a team twice during season such as with Illinois.

Any possibility of Michigan getting knocked off 1 line? Can a current 2 seed surpass them such as Alabama or Texas ?

 

[bac2therac]

I still think we can be a 10, its going to be close. I think the committee will do the best they can to avoid any Big 10 matchup in the 2nd round. With a bunch of ACC schools on the 8/9 line and none on the 1-2 line it wouldnt be too hard to shift some spots

Michigan is a 1. All the top 4 are locked in right now.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

I would say teams like Syracuse, Md., UCLA, OU, and Drake should worry but if Cincy beats Houston but I think they eliminate Wichita St and SMU from consideration. Drake is safe, I think they will stick to a deserving mid-major play-in spot as 1/4 like Belmont 2 years ago.

Not that it matters between 2 and 3 but I wonder if Illinois can pass Baylor with the win over OSU, I think they should.

 

[bac2therac]

there is no reason to put Drake in when you can put Wichita State in with a better win and better resume and they also won the AAC regular season title

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Georgetown winning helps Syracuse some over the other bubblers. Didnt they beat them OOC?

 

[bac2therac]

yes

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

there is no reason to put Drake in when you can put Wichita State in with a better win and better resume and they also won the AAC regular season title

Correct. In that scenerio, Cincy would be in the field. So Wichita would have wins over 2 field teams plus Ole Miss (probably NIT) on top of Houston. Drake has Loyola and then nothing.

 

[bac2therac]

and if the committee values Houston which they showed they did when they had them as a 2 seed in their unveiling of the top 16 then I cannot see how they can pass on the the school that actually won the regular season AAC while they deliver a 2 seed to the Cougars

 

[RUonBrain]

What happens to the brackets if say on Tuesday, an announced team is forced to withdraw and is replaced by a first four out team?

How do they insert the team if say a high seed can’t go?
Can’t just plug them into that seed.
Need to reseed that region?

 

[bac2therac]

NCAA is justifying it by saying that since the replacement teams were teams that were just outside the first four, that they would be comparable games for the 13-16 seeds...I know it really does not make sense

the deadline is 6PM Tuesday, after that all Covid positive laden teams will have to forfeit if they cannot meet standards

 

[RUonBrain]

NCAA is justifying it by saying that since the replacement teams were teams that were just outside the first four, that they would be comparable games for the 13-16 seeds...I know it really does not make sense

the deadline is 6PM Tuesday, after that all Covid positive laden teams will have to forfeit if they cannot meet standards

So what if Gonzaga bails Tuesday am?
How does that impact seeding?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

But of course. Duke gets a 1 seed and all the world is right.

 

[bac2therac]

So what if Gonzaga bails Tuesday am?
How does that impact seeding?

then someone from the first four out like a Colorado State or Boise State is inserted

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

then someone from the first four out like a Colorado State or Boise State is inserted

It is interesting. They would slot in against a 16 and not have a play in game.

 

[bac2therac]

the idea is that the 16 is still playing a higher seeded team and that in the next round the 8/9 will have a seeding advantage over whoever they play so its not like they are getting screwed

 

[Scarlet Blind]

I miscounted the auto bids in the 1-10 seed
Right now, Gonzaga, Texas, SD St, Ga Tech and Loyola Ill are auto bids
B1G, SEC, A10 and Houston only, will be auto bids in 1-40 teams. 8 autos or 9 autos
32 or 31 at large bids out of 37 at large, 31 autobid conferences

I think Utah St is in, beat SD St twice gets 1 of 5 or 6 at large bids left over Boise St or CSU. Cincy will affect one of these teams Cuse(1-7,6-1,6-1), Wichita St(2-3,2-1,6-1), OU(5-9,0-0,4-1), Md(4-10,3-3,6-0), and Drake(1-2,5-0,6-2). I can't imagine SMU 11-5(6-5), WKU 20-7(1-3,3-1,7-3), St. Johns 16-11(11-10)or SHU 14-13(12-13) getting an at large. Duke 13-11(2-5,5-3,2-2) or Ole Miss 16-11(3-5,4-4,4-2) is the only wild cards over Drake or Utah St.just knowing the NCAA's P6 biases.

 

[RUonBrain]

then someone from the first four out like a Colorado State or Boise State is inserted

Don’t see a better way to do it, but that is an insane benefit to the inserted team.

Wasn’t even in the tournament, and now you play a 16 seed, so basically guaranteed getting to 2nd round vs an 8 seed, which is not a stretch to win and make it to sweet 16.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I miscounted the auto bids in the 1-10 seed
Right now, Gonzaga, Texas, SD St, Ga Tech and Loyola Ill are auto bids
B1G, SEC, A10 and Houston only, will be auto bids in 1-40 teams. 8 autos or 9 autos
32 or 31 at large bids out of 37 at large, 31 autobid conferences

I think Utah St is in, beat SD St twice gets 1 of 5 or 6 at large bids left over Boise St or CSU. Cincy will affect one of these teams Cuse(1-7,6-1,6-1), Wichita St(2-3,2-1,6-1), OU(5-9,0-0,4-1), Md(4-10,3-3,6-0), and Drake(1-2,5-0,6-2). I can't imagine SMU 11-5(6-5), WKU 20-7(1-3,3-1,7-3), St. Johns 16-11(11-10)or SHU 14-13(12-13) getting an at large. Duke 13-11(2-5,5-3,2-2) or Ole Miss 16-11(3-5,4-4,4-2) is the only wild cards over Drake or Utah St.just knowing the NCAA's P6 biases.

OU - Oklahoma? They are safely in. I didn’t think Maryland is at risk either.

 

[bac2therac]

I have seen enough to lock up my final bracket, Cincinnati is not going to beat Houston

 

[Scarlet Blind]

OU - Oklahoma? They are safely in. I didn’t think Maryland is at risk either.

37 Oklahoma(15-10) is a lock in, has great wins, swept WVU, vs Kansas, vs Alabama and @ TX(Q1 5-9), but lost 5 out of last 6 and played no Q2 game hurts their seeding, (5-9) Q3 4-1 (10-10). As a comparison, 38 Rutgers is Q1 4-9 Q2 6-2 (10-11)Q3 3-0(13-11)