Okay the regular season is complete and we are into championship week. The bubble has constricted and I have locked in 29 of the 37 available at large bids. We are down to 8 bids left and 16 schools competing for them.
Go cut yourself a piece of Hungarian Nut Roll and grab yourself a cup of Java and sit down and enjoy.
ONE SEEDS
GONZAGA
BAYLOR
MICHIGAN
ILLINOIS
TWO SEEDS
ALABAMA
IOWA
OHIO STATE
WEST VIRGINIA
THREE SEEDS
VILLANOVA
HOUSTON
ARKANSAS
TEXAS
FOUR SEEDS
KANSAS
PURDUE
OKLAHOMA STATE
VIRGINIA
FIVE SEEDS
TENNESSEE
TEXAS TECH
FLORIDA STATE
CREIGHTON
SIX SEEDS
MISSOURI
CLEMSON
USC
OREGON
SEVEN SEEDS
OKLAHOMA
WISCONSIN
VIRGINIA TECH
LSU
EIGHT SEEDS
COLORADO
BYU
SAN DIEGO STATE
MICHIGAN STATE
NINE SEEDS
LOYOLA CHICAGO
RUTGERS
FLORIDA
CONNECTICUT
TEN SEEDS
GEORGIA TECH
NORTH CAROLINA
(27) SAINT BONAVENTURE 15-4: Q1: 3-2, Q2; 3-1, road 4-3, S0S 107
Bonnies gained a needed Q1 win over St Louis in the A10 semis and now will meet bubble VCU for the A10 championships. Its looking like they may have done enough even if they do not win that game. Light on real quality wins, there is that win over VCU earlier in the year. Not sure if wins over Richmond and Davidson move the needle all that much. A Q3 loss to Dayton is really the only blemish here and its not that bad. While its true, its not an overwhelming profile, a regular season A10 does count for something and the top 2 schools in the league made the final. Bonnies appear to have a little more cushion than VCU in absorbing a defeat but general thinking is that this conference deserves two bids. Covid issues within the conference and the country will be considered I think and might excuse the Bonnies lack of bones on its OOC schedule. Looks like the loser of this title match might bounce into the first four games though.
1. (34) MARYLAND 14-12: Q1: 4-9, Q2: 2-3, road 4-6, SOS 13
The Terps needed only to take care of business and win one game vs Big 10 lesser types but worst case scenario developed and they dropped them both. Losing to Northwestern was just a Q2 loss so it is true, they have not lost outside of Q1/2. However the meltdown at home vs Penn State blowing a 16 point lead in a big spot is particularly alarming. There is little margin of error left for the Terps. Yes one win in the Big 10 tourney will vault them in but one loss would put them at just 14-13 and no school has ever been selected for an at large with less than a 2 game above 500. Certainly that stat will be tested in a strange Covid laced season but do the Terps really want to test it? The problem is the loss also sent them from a 7 seed in the B10 tourney and a game with Indiana to the 8 seed matched up with a red hot Michigan State. Now the Terps did beat Sparty a week ago so its not like they have no shot but it will be a tough spot for them. The 12 losses starting to effect the overall metric. 6-12 vs Q1/2 is not a great stat and 6-13 will look even worse. Yes we know the great wins here especially on the road...at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Rutgers plus a home win to Purdue. It comes down to will the selection committee value quality wins over a mediocre overall record. If they do sneak in at 14-13, they are definitely headed to the first four.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(65) WICHITA STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 2-1, road 5-2, SOS 86
Somehow the Shockers captured the regular season AAC title and for now are projected as the AAC AQ. Question remains how viable are they are for an at large bid. Their case rests with a few points. AAC regular season title, win over Houston, no bad losses. Its an okay profile but its one that has obviously benefitted from Covid issues with other programs in the AAC and having to play less games missing games with SMU totally. The Wheat Shockers have pretty think numbers in Q1 and 2 and 9 of their 13 wins are to Q3 and 4. Only 17 played games is sort of bizarre and will be tough for the committee to weigh. Otherwise there is a blowout loss to Memphis, nice win over bubble Ole Miss and OOC losses to Missouri and Oklahoma State. I think there are enough good things here willing where the NCAA will be kind to them but they might want to do themselves well by winning one AAC tourney game which should not be an issue given they face the winner of USF/Temple. The real question is what if a Memphis or even SMU jumps up and wins the ACC tourney. How will that effect WSU's chances especially if the teams route to the AQ comes from beating Wichita State
2. (51) LOUISVILLE 13-6: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 6-0, road 4-4, SOS 51
Cards continue their recent journey to the last 4 in line despite being so close to feeling secure. Their game with Virginia Tech was cancelled due to Covid issues with the Hokies but on Saturday, the Cards missed an opportunity for a desperately needed Quad 1 win by losing to Virginia. UL gets paired up with the winner of Duke/BC in the ACC 2nd round. Obviously a win there should be enough to lock them in but can their profile sustain a loss to Duke (which would revive the Blue Devils' own chances)? That Quad1 mark is troubling for a power conference school and that the win was over Duke who again has fallen off the bubble for now diminishes its impact. It is in Quad 2 where Louisville at 6-0 shows up but even in that group, the only wins over tourney teams are Ga Tech and Va Tech. The wins over Seton Hall and Kentucky are not moving any needles at this point. Is their resume really all that different from what we see with Syracuse? There is a bad loss to Miami here that they probably would like to have back. Again like Maryland, if they do lose and get in, they will be playing in the first 4. Without a ACC tourney win, I would be worried about Syracuse, Duke, or North Carolina State making runs in the ACC tourney or Xavier, Seton Hall, St John's and Providence in the Big East.
3. (35) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 19-6: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 7-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-3, SOS 94
VCU set to play St Bonaventure for the A10 tourney title this weekend. Rams did what they had to do and as mentioned before, the general feeling is the A10 will get 2. Bonnies might have cushion because they won the A10 regular season title but the Rams may have the more impressive resume. Those 7 Q2 wins are impressive and brings their overall Q1/2 mark to 9-4. Split with the Bonnies but lets note key bubble wins over Utah State, St Louis, and Memphis. VCU challenged themselves OOC in losses to Penn State and WVU. Its the Q3 losses to George Mason and Rhode Island which keep them from being locks already. A win for them could mean the difference from being as high as a 9 or a trip to the first four or in worst case, a NIT top seed.
4. (41) UCLA 17-8: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-2, road 5-5, SOS 53
Bruins' placement in the bracket continues to teeter toward the last 4 in grouping. Bruins just simply have not been adding anything substantial to their profile in the past few weeks and suffered an excruciatingly painful defeat at home in the closing seconds vs USC. The Bruins were two seconds away from locking in just like they were a win away from the Pac 12 title but could not beat Oregon earlier in the week. Bottom line is the Bruins have just one win over a tourney projected school and that is Colorado. A whopping 12 of their 17 wins come from outside Q1 and 2. Those are numbers from the Mountain West or lower conferences. In their defense, yes no bad losses metric wise but not so sure that Washington State and Stanford aren't. UCLA seeded 4th draws Oregon State in the Pac 12 quarters. They beat the Beavers by 5 earlier this season and I think its a must win for them. A loss and I think they are on the last 2 in/last 2 out line. Beating Oregon State is just another mediocre Q2 win. Would that even be enough or do they have to beat Oregon? Not sure but if they do not they leave it up to the whims of the committee and I have seen profiles from power conference schools similar to theirs who have been left out.
TWELVE SEEDS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
WINTHROP
5. (43) BOISE STATE 17-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, 1 Q4 loss, road 4-6, SOS 102
Broncs have had quite an interesting two weeks vacillating from MWC AQ to last team in to last team out and back into the last 4 grouping. That is life around the bubble in 2021 when gaining traction is found at a premium. Broncs sustained a Quad 4 loss at home to Fresno which normally would be devastating at this time of the year yet somehow they find themselves still in the field as the bubble has collasped around them. Those things happen but for the Broncs to stay in the field they will have to earn their way in. Matched up with a tough Nevada in the MWC quarters, note they were swept by them earlier in the season. A win is mandatory but its likely that they will also need to take down San Diego State in the semis. Do that and their chances of dancing are excellent even if they do not win the final. With SDSU a lock but Utah St and Colorado State right there on the bubble, this conference tourney will decide alot. Some things working for them include that non conference win over BYU that separates them a bit from he other MWC bubbles and swept Utah State a key as well.
6. (50) COLORADO STATE 16-5: Q2: 2-3, Q2: 1-2, road 4-4, SOS 116
Rams suffered a heartbreaking loss at Nevada last week and while it just counts as a Q2 loss when you look and see that 13 of their 16 wins are to Q3/4 that defeat is magnified. Even further digging shows 10 of its 16 wins are in Quad 4 alone. Let us be honest, the Rams are here as 2nd to last team in because of how awful the bubble is in 2021. Their profile hinges on splitting with the other top 3 MWC schools...San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State. Their only foray into a non conference school with a pulse resulted in a 53-33 loss to a mediocre St Mary's. Rams are the 3 seed and draw the winner of Fresno State/New Mexico in the quarters. A win is mandatory of course but what of the next round. That is a potential matchup with Utah State. Currently the Rams are slightly ahead of them on the bubble list but a loss will reverse that. Not sure if this profile can sustain a loss there and still make it.
7. (47) DRAKE 23-4: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 5-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 9-2. SOS 170
The Bulldogs season is over following a loss to Loyola Chicago in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament finals. Drake did what they had to do by getting to the finals but now have to sit and wait to see how the bubble unfolds around them. They become the usual test case for the selection committee on rewarding a mid major school with a gaudy win total but not many quality wins over a bloated toad from a power conference school who piled up losses and tossed in a couple good wins here or there. The only win of note was a close win over Loyola at home earlier in the season, a day after the Ramblers blew them out. I know there are 5 Q2 wins here but wins over Missouri State 3x and Indiana State 2x are not fooling anyone. More notably are the bad losses to Bradley and 225 Valpo. Perhaps one Q3 loss is excusable but 2 not so much. Will be the most problematic school for bracketologists to guess right on this year.
8. (49) SYRACUSE 15-8: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 4-1, road 2-7, SOS 67
Begrudgingly going to put the Orange here because, well someone has to be here. Hard time for me to leave Xavier who lost consecutive games to mediocre Big East trash so going to bump Cuse to this point for now. The Quad 1 mark speaks for itself and that win is just one at NC State a distant bubble themselves. However looking deeper into Q2 this is where the Orange show up. Wins over Clemson, UNC, and Virginia Tech as well as another win over NC State. Important here is that is 3 wins over projected NCAA schools. Their overall Q1/2 marks are no worse than the MWC bubble schools. Orange ultimately probably rueing those two losses to Pitt because they do blemish the resume. Orange path is simple but a challenge. Take down NC State for a third time in the ACC opening round and then knock off top seeded Virginia in the ACC quarters. That would propel them in the tourney for sure. A loss to UVA given the Orange's precarious spot as last team in in all liklihoods pushes them out of the field and would mean they would need a pretty big collapse around the bubble. Do not count out yet.
THIRTEEN SEEDS
TOLEDO
CAL SANTA BARBARA
LIBERTY
NORTH CAROLINA GREENSBORO
FOURTEEN SEEDS
COLGATE
SOUTHERN UTAH
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
BRYANT
FIFTEEN SEEDS
MOREHEAD STATE
CLEVELAND STATE
NORTHEASTERN
SIENA
SIXTEEN SEEDS
GRAND CANYON
GEORGIA STATE
NICHOLLS STATE
HARTFORD
PRAIRE VIEW A&M
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
OUT
9. (57) XAVIER 13-7: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 5-5, road 2-5, SOS 84
Musketeers had a rough week dropping both road games at Georgetown and Marquette. In a normal year those type of losses would poison a profile. In 2021 it leaves the Musketeers still breathing on the last team in/last team out line. Xavier has two great wins. The non conference win over Oklahoma and a home win over Creighton. Those are big wins to have compared to other bubbles but the issue is how many losses to average Big East teams can they get away with. Remember the Big East profile is a bit diminished this season. Xavier got beat by fading bubble Seton Hall and split with bubbles St Johns and Providence. This weeks losses to Marq/Gtown were their worst of the season and builds the narrative that they cannot win on the road. Draw Butler in opening Big East tourney game. That is a must win but they would do themselves well to upset Creighton in the quarters or else their whole chances are left up to the whims of the blowing winds of the selection committee
10. (53) MISSISSIPPI 15-10: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 5-4, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-6, SOS 71
Not sure any school benefitted more from the futility of the bubble this week than Ole Miss. The Rebels beating Kentucky and Vanderbilt did not turn heads but it was a case of taking care of business while other bubble schools were floundering. This resume has been bouncing around beyond the last 4 in line for a while now but as we head to tourney play, they are actually well positioned to bounce into the field. Their 7-8 mark in Q1 and 2 is best among bubbles out and even most in. A sweep of Missouri and win over Tennessee are quite solid. Its beyond that you wonder how much credit given to beating mediocrity from the middle and bottom of SEC. There are two Q3 losses that really hurt the profile...Miss State and Georgia. Also of note is the loss to bubble Wichita State. Obviously their resume is not complete. Its going to require picking up wins in the SEC tourney. Seeded 6th, Rebels will need to beat South Carolina in the opening round and then beat 3rd seed LSU in the quarters. Arkansas or Missouri could await in the semis and obviously a win there locks them. Is it enough to just beat LSU...going to be close. This will be the case of the bloated power conference schools vs a mid major but Ole Miss would do themselves well to keep it in their own hands.
11. (44) SAINT LOUIS 14-6: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 1-4, SOS 118
Billikens were soundly thumped by the Bonnies in the A10 quarters and their regular season is over barring a successful attempt to schedule a quality opponent for this week to help the resume. They really had to win that game. The resume shows a very good win over LSU, the earlier win over St Bona and good wins over NC State and Richmond. Obviously Covid wrecked havoc with their ability to get all their games in. While the NCAA is likely to consider that, it's more likely that getting swept by Dayton and a horrific loss to La Salle end up being factors that keep them out. Not sure the A10 deserves 3 bids as it is and with it clear that VCU profile is several rungs ahead, the Billikens only shot is to back into the field hoping the NCAA shows them mercy
12. (48) UTAH STATE 17-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 1-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-3, SOS 123
Left for dead after being swept by Boise, USU enters the MWC tourney as the 2 seed. This was a week which saw their MWC rivals stumble while they themselves saved their season by rallying to defeat Fresno State. Still a tad bit behind BSU and CSU in the bubble pecking order, the Aggies are facing two must wins. First take care of UNLV/Air Force winner and then an ABSOLUTE must win game vs Colorado State. That would give them a punchers chance but I am not all that convinced its enough. It would certainly move them ahead of Colorado State but still leave them vulnerable. Might be best for them to just win the whole thing. Its hard to shake that they lost BOTH games to Boise State, lost to bubble VCU and have 2 Q3 losses.
13. (68) SAINT JOHN'S: 16-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-2, road 4-6, SOS 73
Johnnies back in the running after home wins over Providence and Seton Hall. The latter dealt a near fatal blow to the Pirates chances while giving SJU a needed Q2 victory. Light on Q1 wins but the ones they have are huge...Nova and at UConn. They split with fellow bubble Xavier. Obviously the Q4 loss to De Paul is a big blemish and there just seem to be too many losses to the Marquette mediocrity type of the Big East that keeps them out of the field right now. Yet a favorable draw of Seton Hall in the quarters and a injury ravaged Villanova in the semis lays out a clear path for an at large bid. Win them both and dance otherwise its NIT.
14. (66) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 13-9: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 3-2, road 3-5, SOS 68
Winners of 5 in a row, the Wolfpack unfortunately saw their chance to pick up a much needed quality victory cancelled this weekend by covid issues from Va Tech. Resume is willing but its really incomplete at this point. Taking care of business against lesser as the season wore on and picked up quality wins over Virginia and North Carolina. Yet the 1-6 Q1 mark is problematic and they got swept by bubble Cuse and that Q4 loss to Miami looks poisonous right now. Still the path is there and that will mean beating Syracuse in the opening round of the ACC, beating Virginia in the quarters. That would put NC State right on the cut line before their semifinal matchup with Ga Tech/Clemson. Whether they would have to win that game is 50/50. Remember we always see one school playing their way INTO the field and this could be the one.
15. (77) PROVIDENCE 13-12: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 4-6, road 4-7, SOS 38
Many bracketologists seem to be sleeping on this profile while bizarrely keeping Seton Hall in contention. Hard to explain why that is the case because doing a deep dive shows this profile has quality wins. Start with wins over Nova, a road win at Creighton, wins over UConn and Xavier and a split with Seton Hall. Note they were swept by St Johns and its hard to get around the overall record. 12 losses is alot and again too much losing to drek from this league albeit still qualifying as Quad 2 losses. Not getting a bye and being seeded 6th is plus for the Friars, not that beating De Paul adds to any quality but it means if they Friars can get to the finals, they would be 2 games above 500 with a loss in the finals at 15-13. That would mean taking down UConn in the quarters and Creighton in the semis. Sure its a tough challenge ahead but the key is their opportunity which a lot of bubble schools simply do not have right now.
16. (58) SETON HALL 13-12: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 3-4, road 6-7, SOS 37
4 straight losses to end the year including a comical collapse vs St John's, the Pirates are beyond a parody of a limping bubble team at this point. The eye test scream NO!! But there is a path to at least get them back into contention. Beat St John's and beat Nova. Those wins will at least put them the Pirates in play, whether that is enough is another story....15-13 is the magic 2 games above. Their only previous wins of note were Xavier and UConn. Unlike the Friars and Johnnies though, it would take a complete reversal of form and I am not holding my breath.
FIRST FOUR BYES: MARYLAND, LOUISVILLE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, UCLA
LAST FOUR IN: SYRACUSE, DRAKE, COLORADO STATE, BOISE STATE
FIRST FOUR OUT: XAVIER, MISSISSIPPI, SAINT LOUIS, UTAH STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: SAINT JOHN'S NORTH CAROLINA STATE, PROVIDENCE, SETON HALL
Go cut yourself a piece of Hungarian Nut Roll and grab yourself a cup of Java and sit down and enjoy.
ONE SEEDS
GONZAGA
BAYLOR
MICHIGAN
ILLINOIS
TWO SEEDS
ALABAMA
IOWA
OHIO STATE
WEST VIRGINIA
THREE SEEDS
VILLANOVA
HOUSTON
ARKANSAS
TEXAS
FOUR SEEDS
KANSAS
PURDUE
OKLAHOMA STATE
VIRGINIA
FIVE SEEDS
TENNESSEE
TEXAS TECH
FLORIDA STATE
CREIGHTON
SIX SEEDS
MISSOURI
CLEMSON
USC
OREGON
SEVEN SEEDS
OKLAHOMA
WISCONSIN
VIRGINIA TECH
LSU
EIGHT SEEDS
COLORADO
BYU
SAN DIEGO STATE
MICHIGAN STATE
NINE SEEDS
LOYOLA CHICAGO
RUTGERS
FLORIDA
CONNECTICUT
TEN SEEDS
GEORGIA TECH
NORTH CAROLINA
(27) SAINT BONAVENTURE 15-4: Q1: 3-2, Q2; 3-1, road 4-3, S0S 107
Bonnies gained a needed Q1 win over St Louis in the A10 semis and now will meet bubble VCU for the A10 championships. Its looking like they may have done enough even if they do not win that game. Light on real quality wins, there is that win over VCU earlier in the year. Not sure if wins over Richmond and Davidson move the needle all that much. A Q3 loss to Dayton is really the only blemish here and its not that bad. While its true, its not an overwhelming profile, a regular season A10 does count for something and the top 2 schools in the league made the final. Bonnies appear to have a little more cushion than VCU in absorbing a defeat but general thinking is that this conference deserves two bids. Covid issues within the conference and the country will be considered I think and might excuse the Bonnies lack of bones on its OOC schedule. Looks like the loser of this title match might bounce into the first four games though.
1. (34) MARYLAND 14-12: Q1: 4-9, Q2: 2-3, road 4-6, SOS 13
The Terps needed only to take care of business and win one game vs Big 10 lesser types but worst case scenario developed and they dropped them both. Losing to Northwestern was just a Q2 loss so it is true, they have not lost outside of Q1/2. However the meltdown at home vs Penn State blowing a 16 point lead in a big spot is particularly alarming. There is little margin of error left for the Terps. Yes one win in the Big 10 tourney will vault them in but one loss would put them at just 14-13 and no school has ever been selected for an at large with less than a 2 game above 500. Certainly that stat will be tested in a strange Covid laced season but do the Terps really want to test it? The problem is the loss also sent them from a 7 seed in the B10 tourney and a game with Indiana to the 8 seed matched up with a red hot Michigan State. Now the Terps did beat Sparty a week ago so its not like they have no shot but it will be a tough spot for them. The 12 losses starting to effect the overall metric. 6-12 vs Q1/2 is not a great stat and 6-13 will look even worse. Yes we know the great wins here especially on the road...at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Rutgers plus a home win to Purdue. It comes down to will the selection committee value quality wins over a mediocre overall record. If they do sneak in at 14-13, they are definitely headed to the first four.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(65) WICHITA STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 2-1, road 5-2, SOS 86
Somehow the Shockers captured the regular season AAC title and for now are projected as the AAC AQ. Question remains how viable are they are for an at large bid. Their case rests with a few points. AAC regular season title, win over Houston, no bad losses. Its an okay profile but its one that has obviously benefitted from Covid issues with other programs in the AAC and having to play less games missing games with SMU totally. The Wheat Shockers have pretty think numbers in Q1 and 2 and 9 of their 13 wins are to Q3 and 4. Only 17 played games is sort of bizarre and will be tough for the committee to weigh. Otherwise there is a blowout loss to Memphis, nice win over bubble Ole Miss and OOC losses to Missouri and Oklahoma State. I think there are enough good things here willing where the NCAA will be kind to them but they might want to do themselves well by winning one AAC tourney game which should not be an issue given they face the winner of USF/Temple. The real question is what if a Memphis or even SMU jumps up and wins the ACC tourney. How will that effect WSU's chances especially if the teams route to the AQ comes from beating Wichita State
2. (51) LOUISVILLE 13-6: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 6-0, road 4-4, SOS 51
Cards continue their recent journey to the last 4 in line despite being so close to feeling secure. Their game with Virginia Tech was cancelled due to Covid issues with the Hokies but on Saturday, the Cards missed an opportunity for a desperately needed Quad 1 win by losing to Virginia. UL gets paired up with the winner of Duke/BC in the ACC 2nd round. Obviously a win there should be enough to lock them in but can their profile sustain a loss to Duke (which would revive the Blue Devils' own chances)? That Quad1 mark is troubling for a power conference school and that the win was over Duke who again has fallen off the bubble for now diminishes its impact. It is in Quad 2 where Louisville at 6-0 shows up but even in that group, the only wins over tourney teams are Ga Tech and Va Tech. The wins over Seton Hall and Kentucky are not moving any needles at this point. Is their resume really all that different from what we see with Syracuse? There is a bad loss to Miami here that they probably would like to have back. Again like Maryland, if they do lose and get in, they will be playing in the first 4. Without a ACC tourney win, I would be worried about Syracuse, Duke, or North Carolina State making runs in the ACC tourney or Xavier, Seton Hall, St John's and Providence in the Big East.
3. (35) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 19-6: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 7-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-3, SOS 94
VCU set to play St Bonaventure for the A10 tourney title this weekend. Rams did what they had to do and as mentioned before, the general feeling is the A10 will get 2. Bonnies might have cushion because they won the A10 regular season title but the Rams may have the more impressive resume. Those 7 Q2 wins are impressive and brings their overall Q1/2 mark to 9-4. Split with the Bonnies but lets note key bubble wins over Utah State, St Louis, and Memphis. VCU challenged themselves OOC in losses to Penn State and WVU. Its the Q3 losses to George Mason and Rhode Island which keep them from being locks already. A win for them could mean the difference from being as high as a 9 or a trip to the first four or in worst case, a NIT top seed.
4. (41) UCLA 17-8: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-2, road 5-5, SOS 53
Bruins' placement in the bracket continues to teeter toward the last 4 in grouping. Bruins just simply have not been adding anything substantial to their profile in the past few weeks and suffered an excruciatingly painful defeat at home in the closing seconds vs USC. The Bruins were two seconds away from locking in just like they were a win away from the Pac 12 title but could not beat Oregon earlier in the week. Bottom line is the Bruins have just one win over a tourney projected school and that is Colorado. A whopping 12 of their 17 wins come from outside Q1 and 2. Those are numbers from the Mountain West or lower conferences. In their defense, yes no bad losses metric wise but not so sure that Washington State and Stanford aren't. UCLA seeded 4th draws Oregon State in the Pac 12 quarters. They beat the Beavers by 5 earlier this season and I think its a must win for them. A loss and I think they are on the last 2 in/last 2 out line. Beating Oregon State is just another mediocre Q2 win. Would that even be enough or do they have to beat Oregon? Not sure but if they do not they leave it up to the whims of the committee and I have seen profiles from power conference schools similar to theirs who have been left out.
TWELVE SEEDS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
WINTHROP
5. (43) BOISE STATE 17-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, 1 Q4 loss, road 4-6, SOS 102
Broncs have had quite an interesting two weeks vacillating from MWC AQ to last team in to last team out and back into the last 4 grouping. That is life around the bubble in 2021 when gaining traction is found at a premium. Broncs sustained a Quad 4 loss at home to Fresno which normally would be devastating at this time of the year yet somehow they find themselves still in the field as the bubble has collasped around them. Those things happen but for the Broncs to stay in the field they will have to earn their way in. Matched up with a tough Nevada in the MWC quarters, note they were swept by them earlier in the season. A win is mandatory but its likely that they will also need to take down San Diego State in the semis. Do that and their chances of dancing are excellent even if they do not win the final. With SDSU a lock but Utah St and Colorado State right there on the bubble, this conference tourney will decide alot. Some things working for them include that non conference win over BYU that separates them a bit from he other MWC bubbles and swept Utah State a key as well.
6. (50) COLORADO STATE 16-5: Q2: 2-3, Q2: 1-2, road 4-4, SOS 116
Rams suffered a heartbreaking loss at Nevada last week and while it just counts as a Q2 loss when you look and see that 13 of their 16 wins are to Q3/4 that defeat is magnified. Even further digging shows 10 of its 16 wins are in Quad 4 alone. Let us be honest, the Rams are here as 2nd to last team in because of how awful the bubble is in 2021. Their profile hinges on splitting with the other top 3 MWC schools...San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State. Their only foray into a non conference school with a pulse resulted in a 53-33 loss to a mediocre St Mary's. Rams are the 3 seed and draw the winner of Fresno State/New Mexico in the quarters. A win is mandatory of course but what of the next round. That is a potential matchup with Utah State. Currently the Rams are slightly ahead of them on the bubble list but a loss will reverse that. Not sure if this profile can sustain a loss there and still make it.
7. (47) DRAKE 23-4: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 5-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 9-2. SOS 170
The Bulldogs season is over following a loss to Loyola Chicago in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament finals. Drake did what they had to do by getting to the finals but now have to sit and wait to see how the bubble unfolds around them. They become the usual test case for the selection committee on rewarding a mid major school with a gaudy win total but not many quality wins over a bloated toad from a power conference school who piled up losses and tossed in a couple good wins here or there. The only win of note was a close win over Loyola at home earlier in the season, a day after the Ramblers blew them out. I know there are 5 Q2 wins here but wins over Missouri State 3x and Indiana State 2x are not fooling anyone. More notably are the bad losses to Bradley and 225 Valpo. Perhaps one Q3 loss is excusable but 2 not so much. Will be the most problematic school for bracketologists to guess right on this year.
8. (49) SYRACUSE 15-8: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 4-1, road 2-7, SOS 67
Begrudgingly going to put the Orange here because, well someone has to be here. Hard time for me to leave Xavier who lost consecutive games to mediocre Big East trash so going to bump Cuse to this point for now. The Quad 1 mark speaks for itself and that win is just one at NC State a distant bubble themselves. However looking deeper into Q2 this is where the Orange show up. Wins over Clemson, UNC, and Virginia Tech as well as another win over NC State. Important here is that is 3 wins over projected NCAA schools. Their overall Q1/2 marks are no worse than the MWC bubble schools. Orange ultimately probably rueing those two losses to Pitt because they do blemish the resume. Orange path is simple but a challenge. Take down NC State for a third time in the ACC opening round and then knock off top seeded Virginia in the ACC quarters. That would propel them in the tourney for sure. A loss to UVA given the Orange's precarious spot as last team in in all liklihoods pushes them out of the field and would mean they would need a pretty big collapse around the bubble. Do not count out yet.
THIRTEEN SEEDS
TOLEDO
CAL SANTA BARBARA
LIBERTY
NORTH CAROLINA GREENSBORO
FOURTEEN SEEDS
COLGATE
SOUTHERN UTAH
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
BRYANT
FIFTEEN SEEDS
MOREHEAD STATE
CLEVELAND STATE
NORTHEASTERN
SIENA
SIXTEEN SEEDS
GRAND CANYON
GEORGIA STATE
NICHOLLS STATE
HARTFORD
PRAIRE VIEW A&M
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
OUT
9. (57) XAVIER 13-7: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 5-5, road 2-5, SOS 84
Musketeers had a rough week dropping both road games at Georgetown and Marquette. In a normal year those type of losses would poison a profile. In 2021 it leaves the Musketeers still breathing on the last team in/last team out line. Xavier has two great wins. The non conference win over Oklahoma and a home win over Creighton. Those are big wins to have compared to other bubbles but the issue is how many losses to average Big East teams can they get away with. Remember the Big East profile is a bit diminished this season. Xavier got beat by fading bubble Seton Hall and split with bubbles St Johns and Providence. This weeks losses to Marq/Gtown were their worst of the season and builds the narrative that they cannot win on the road. Draw Butler in opening Big East tourney game. That is a must win but they would do themselves well to upset Creighton in the quarters or else their whole chances are left up to the whims of the blowing winds of the selection committee
10. (53) MISSISSIPPI 15-10: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 5-4, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-6, SOS 71
Not sure any school benefitted more from the futility of the bubble this week than Ole Miss. The Rebels beating Kentucky and Vanderbilt did not turn heads but it was a case of taking care of business while other bubble schools were floundering. This resume has been bouncing around beyond the last 4 in line for a while now but as we head to tourney play, they are actually well positioned to bounce into the field. Their 7-8 mark in Q1 and 2 is best among bubbles out and even most in. A sweep of Missouri and win over Tennessee are quite solid. Its beyond that you wonder how much credit given to beating mediocrity from the middle and bottom of SEC. There are two Q3 losses that really hurt the profile...Miss State and Georgia. Also of note is the loss to bubble Wichita State. Obviously their resume is not complete. Its going to require picking up wins in the SEC tourney. Seeded 6th, Rebels will need to beat South Carolina in the opening round and then beat 3rd seed LSU in the quarters. Arkansas or Missouri could await in the semis and obviously a win there locks them. Is it enough to just beat LSU...going to be close. This will be the case of the bloated power conference schools vs a mid major but Ole Miss would do themselves well to keep it in their own hands.
11. (44) SAINT LOUIS 14-6: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 1-4, SOS 118
Billikens were soundly thumped by the Bonnies in the A10 quarters and their regular season is over barring a successful attempt to schedule a quality opponent for this week to help the resume. They really had to win that game. The resume shows a very good win over LSU, the earlier win over St Bona and good wins over NC State and Richmond. Obviously Covid wrecked havoc with their ability to get all their games in. While the NCAA is likely to consider that, it's more likely that getting swept by Dayton and a horrific loss to La Salle end up being factors that keep them out. Not sure the A10 deserves 3 bids as it is and with it clear that VCU profile is several rungs ahead, the Billikens only shot is to back into the field hoping the NCAA shows them mercy
12. (48) UTAH STATE 17-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 1-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-3, SOS 123
Left for dead after being swept by Boise, USU enters the MWC tourney as the 2 seed. This was a week which saw their MWC rivals stumble while they themselves saved their season by rallying to defeat Fresno State. Still a tad bit behind BSU and CSU in the bubble pecking order, the Aggies are facing two must wins. First take care of UNLV/Air Force winner and then an ABSOLUTE must win game vs Colorado State. That would give them a punchers chance but I am not all that convinced its enough. It would certainly move them ahead of Colorado State but still leave them vulnerable. Might be best for them to just win the whole thing. Its hard to shake that they lost BOTH games to Boise State, lost to bubble VCU and have 2 Q3 losses.
13. (68) SAINT JOHN'S: 16-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-2, road 4-6, SOS 73
Johnnies back in the running after home wins over Providence and Seton Hall. The latter dealt a near fatal blow to the Pirates chances while giving SJU a needed Q2 victory. Light on Q1 wins but the ones they have are huge...Nova and at UConn. They split with fellow bubble Xavier. Obviously the Q4 loss to De Paul is a big blemish and there just seem to be too many losses to the Marquette mediocrity type of the Big East that keeps them out of the field right now. Yet a favorable draw of Seton Hall in the quarters and a injury ravaged Villanova in the semis lays out a clear path for an at large bid. Win them both and dance otherwise its NIT.
14. (66) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 13-9: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 3-2, road 3-5, SOS 68
Winners of 5 in a row, the Wolfpack unfortunately saw their chance to pick up a much needed quality victory cancelled this weekend by covid issues from Va Tech. Resume is willing but its really incomplete at this point. Taking care of business against lesser as the season wore on and picked up quality wins over Virginia and North Carolina. Yet the 1-6 Q1 mark is problematic and they got swept by bubble Cuse and that Q4 loss to Miami looks poisonous right now. Still the path is there and that will mean beating Syracuse in the opening round of the ACC, beating Virginia in the quarters. That would put NC State right on the cut line before their semifinal matchup with Ga Tech/Clemson. Whether they would have to win that game is 50/50. Remember we always see one school playing their way INTO the field and this could be the one.
15. (77) PROVIDENCE 13-12: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 4-6, road 4-7, SOS 38
Many bracketologists seem to be sleeping on this profile while bizarrely keeping Seton Hall in contention. Hard to explain why that is the case because doing a deep dive shows this profile has quality wins. Start with wins over Nova, a road win at Creighton, wins over UConn and Xavier and a split with Seton Hall. Note they were swept by St Johns and its hard to get around the overall record. 12 losses is alot and again too much losing to drek from this league albeit still qualifying as Quad 2 losses. Not getting a bye and being seeded 6th is plus for the Friars, not that beating De Paul adds to any quality but it means if they Friars can get to the finals, they would be 2 games above 500 with a loss in the finals at 15-13. That would mean taking down UConn in the quarters and Creighton in the semis. Sure its a tough challenge ahead but the key is their opportunity which a lot of bubble schools simply do not have right now.
16. (58) SETON HALL 13-12: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 3-4, road 6-7, SOS 37
4 straight losses to end the year including a comical collapse vs St John's, the Pirates are beyond a parody of a limping bubble team at this point. The eye test scream NO!! But there is a path to at least get them back into contention. Beat St John's and beat Nova. Those wins will at least put them the Pirates in play, whether that is enough is another story....15-13 is the magic 2 games above. Their only previous wins of note were Xavier and UConn. Unlike the Friars and Johnnies though, it would take a complete reversal of form and I am not holding my breath.
FIRST FOUR BYES: MARYLAND, LOUISVILLE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, UCLA
LAST FOUR IN: SYRACUSE, DRAKE, COLORADO STATE, BOISE STATE
FIRST FOUR OUT: XAVIER, MISSISSIPPI, SAINT LOUIS, UTAH STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: SAINT JOHN'S NORTH CAROLINA STATE, PROVIDENCE, SETON HALL
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