3 point shooting this season. Better or Worse?

[Scangg]

How will Rutgers shoot from downtown this season?

Losses - Yeboah and Caleb (redshirt)

Additions - Palmquist, Mag, Reiber?

Returning - Geo, Harper, Mathis, Young, Paul

Yeboah and Caleb were 2 of the better shooters on last year's team so their loss is a cause of concern.

Palmquist and Mag both are being talked about as 3 point threats but as Rutgers fans we know that doesn't always equate to on court performance. Their outside shooting and overall contributions are a wildcard factor that could either bring this team to the next level or leaving us saying next year one more time. I am bullish on both.

The returning players each have their own stories

GEO - although Geo is already a Rutgers legend for his clutch performances, his overall 3 point percentage was not good last season. People don't want to hear it but he struggled BEFORE the thumb injury. The talent is there. The stroke is smooth. The step back can be unguardable. This season we need more CONSISTENCY from Geo and his outside shot. This is the year it all comes together for him with so much talent around him and see his best 3 point shooting season yet

HARPER - Harper came in as an elite 3 point shooter and although we have seen flashes, we have not seen Harper's peak 3 point shooting. Monster season coming from Harper including from downtown.

MATHIS - not known as a shooter, we saw some flashes of better shooting from Montez last season. Not a fan of his form but he seems to be working at it and gaining confidence. Another off season of work and hopefully the trend continues.

MULCAHY - pass first point forward with a mechanical looking shot. Paul needs to work on his 3 and be a WILLING 3 point shooter as teams will sag off and clog the middle if he does not.

YOUNG - really struggled for stretches shooting. Although not a pure shooter, Young can get streaky at times and needed to shake off the rust after a season redshirting.

We could realistically see most if not all of the returning players have their best 3 point shooting seasons of their careers

 

[kcg88]

Very slightly better. 30.8% last year, I'll say 31.3% this season.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

%s tell 1 part of the story. You need to look at attempts too. Tempo too.

this won’t be an apples to apples with the upgrade in schedule (lack of cupcakes).

I answered the same.

 

[RUHouston]

I think it’ll be better because of kick outs from the bigs as other teams are now going to try and double them...ergo it leaves a shooter with no one in their face...if they don’t collapse on Myles, Cliff, Dean, or even RHJ, they’ll pay dearly and maybe even get more and one opportunities...

 

[Groz]

I think RUHouston hit the key fact. If Myles and Cliff can prove to be pretty strong inside, we will get many more open looks than many years before.

For so many years, teams never respected(rightfully so) any of our inside game and could play us much tougher on the perimeter. I expect this team to be so much better offensively with fast break points and more wide open looks. Granted, with no cupcakes on the schedule, that kind of negates a little bit of what I am saying.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[RUChoppin]

I think Baker will be better this year - he had a long slump last season to start the year, and then the injury to work through. Jacob Young also struggled in the early going to get back up to the speed of the game and find his role within the rotation. The team found their groove more as the season wore on and we hit the B1G restart.

3P% prior to the restart, returning players with at least 1 att/game:
.286 - Harper
.250 - Baker
.227 - Mathis
.194 - Young

3P% after restart, returning players with at least 1 att/game:
.388 - Harper
.353 - Young
.333 - Mathis
.316 - Baker

 

[Knight Owl]

I think Baker will be better this year - he had a long slump last season to start the year, and then the injury to work through. Jacob Young also struggled in the early going to get back up to the speed of the game and find his role within the rotation. The team found their groove more as the season wore on and we hit the B1G restart.

3P% prior to the restart, returning players with at least 1 att/game:
.286 - Harper
.250 - Baker
.227 - Mathis
.194 - Young

3P% after restart, returning players with at least 1 att/game:
.388 - Harper
.353 - Young
.333 - Mathis
.316 - Baker

Those averages after the restart are solid(Even Geo since he takes a lot of off the dribble late shot clock 3’s). Palmquist might be the corner trey guy they’ll need.

 

[ouchmyknee]

NBA 3-pt FG % increased drastically with no fans in the arena. Would expect that to carry over to college as well.

 

[kcg88]

I think Baker will be better this year - he had a long slump last season to start the year, and then the injury to work through. Jacob Young also struggled in the early going to get back up to the speed of the game and find his role within the rotation. The team found their groove more as the season wore on and we hit the B1G restart.

3P% prior to the restart, returning players with at least 1 att/game:
.286 - Harper
.250 - Baker
.227 - Mathis
.194 - Young

3P% after restart, returning players with at least 1 att/game:
.388 - Harper
.353 - Young
.333 - Mathis
.316 - Baker

This same patterned happened in 2018-19 as well. Harper, McConnell, and (barely) Mathis shot better in conference play than in non-conference.

 

[rudad02]

How about foul shooting?

 

[Knight Owl]

How about foul shooting?

I don’t get why they struggle with FT’s. I would suggest a lower release point (since it is uncontested after all).

Plus, I hope they don’t have both feet right up against the FT line. The “off foot” should be at least 2-3 inches back...

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Sorry Negatioids ...No chance in hell Geo and Jacob in last go around shoot less than 30% from three again

 

[RUChoppin]

Another consideration, too, is that last year there was adjustment to the new three point distance. This year, everyone has a full year under their belt with that change.

 

[RUHouston]

Another consideration, too, is that last year there was adjustment to the new three point distance. This year, everyone has a full year under their belt with that change.

Good point!

 

[RUonBrain]

NBA 3-pt FG % increased drastically with no fans in the arena. Would expect that to carry over to college as well.

I also wonder how FT shooting will change this season without fans.

Better or worse or about the same?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Sorry Negatioids ...No chance in hell Geo and Jacob in last go around shoot less than 30% from three again

70-262 26.7% is Jacob Young’s career 3 point shooting

 

[zappaa]

Geo makes big 3s in crunch time.
If Harper gets hot, he can ignite 6-0 runs.
We win with D and R

 

[RUChoppin]

70-262 26.7% is Jacob Young’s career 3 point shooting

Young's second half of the season was really surprising and out of character. He went 12-34 (.353) over the final 18 games of the season.... after going 58-228 (.254) through his career up to the last game of 2019. I'd have to expect his numbers numbers would be more in line with his career average next year, but it would be great if his improvement was due to some change in his mechanics or approach that could carry forward into this year.

 

[zappaa]

Young's second half of the season was really surprising and out of character. He went 12-34 (.353) over the final 18 games of the season.... after going 58-228 (.254) through his career up to the last game of 2019. I'd have to expect his numbers numbers would be more in line with his career average next year, but it would be great if his improvement was due to some change in his mechanics or approach that could carry forward into this year.

If young never scores a point (I realize his transition speed and scoring is important)
He’s the opposing guards worst nightmare to play against...we play a different style of defense when Mulcahy is out there, he’s an excellent rebounder but we allow a lot more room

 

[RUChoppin]

I also wonder how FT shooting will change this season without fans.

Better or worse or about the same?

This is a big question. We're losing our two best FT shooters from last season in McConnell (38/48, .792) and Yeboah (57/73, .781)... and they shot about 23% of our attempts last year. Only Baker (.772) and Harper (.708) return a FT% better than 67%. Remains to be seen how the newcomers do at the line... but this year's returning players shot a combined 227/374, .607 from the stripe last year.

 

[Scangg]

Gotta figure no crowd leads to better FT shooting across the board for all teams

 

[zappaa]

This is a big question. We're losing our two best FT shooters from last season in McConnell (38/48, .792) and Yeboah (57/73, .781)... and they shot about 23% of our attempts last year. Only Baker (.772) and Harper (.708) return a FT% better than 67%. Remains to be seen how the newcomers do at the line... but this year's returning players shot a combined 227/374, .607 from the stripe last year.

Mathis will never be a good free throw shooter

 

[ouchmyknee]

I also wonder how FT shooting will change this season without fans.

Better or worse or about the same?

FT % was also up big in the bubble I believe.

 

[kcg88]

FT % was also up big in the bubble I believe.

The worst 10 teams were also absent from the bubble.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

The worst 10 teams were also absent from the bubble.

But were they the worst in FT% ? OR, Just bad teams. The warriors were out but I'd guess they shoot FTs well.

 

[kcg88]

But were they the worst in FT% ? OR, Just bad teams. The warriors were out but I'd guess they shoot FTs well.

Teams left out:

Warriors: 3rd
Hawks: 10th
Cavaliers: 20th
Bulls: 21st
Timberwolves: 23rd
Charlotte: 24th
Pistons: 26th
Knicks: 30th

So they got rid of 6 of the 11 worst free throw shooting teams.

 

[blockm2]

NBA teams also shot in identical shooting backgrounds for weeks at a time instead of moving from arena to arena where it can be quite different.

 

[rudad02]

Mathis will never be a good free throw shooter

Maybe not, but not so sure. His release & touch on his jumper both seem improved on video.

 

[Scangg]

I'll settle for Mathis being an average FT shooter which is def possible. A major x factor for Mathis will be his shooting. He showed flashes last year of being a much better 3 point shooter. He could simply be improving in that area with the Rutgers coaching staff and hard work since his form wasn't ideal coming in

 

[RUChoppin]

I'm less concerned with Mathis at the line than I am with Johnson and Young.

Young got to the line more often than Mathis and in fewer minutes, and shot just .596 last year.
Johnson got to the line more often than anyone but Harper, and shot just .328

 

[ouchmyknee]

The nba saw the biggest improvement in the corner 3, which makes sense since there were no fans sitting court side crowding the court.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I'm less concerned with Mathis at the line than I am with Johnson and Young.

Young got to the line more often than Mathis and in fewer minutes, and shot just .596 last year.
Johnson got to the line more often than anyone but Harper, and shot just .328

Myles is the issue. A big issue. The others are rounding errors.

He is so important in so many ways and it's not like he is on anyone's fantasy basketball team where he can single handedly sabotage your FT%.

 

[RUChoppin]

Myles is the issue. A big issue. The others are rounding errors.

He is so important in so many ways and it's not like he is on anyone's fantasy basketball team where he can single handedly sabotage your FT%.

Johnson and Young lead the returning players in FTs attempted per minute played.

FTA/25 min:
2.74 - Johnson (80 att/731 min)
2.59 - Young (66 att/638 min)
2.55 - Harper (89 att/872 min)
2.00 - Mathis (56 att/701 min)
1.76 - Baker (57 att/809 min)
0.98 - Mulcahy (22 att/563 min)

Need Johnson and Young to make them at a higher rate, though. They were a combined 66/146 (.452)

 

[Knight Owl]

Maybe not, but not so sure. His release & touch on his jumper both seem improved on video.

A lot of long-time NBA guys improve their shooting over their careers, so significant improvement for 20 year olds should be the expectation. I’m 53 and only starting practicing left handed threes this past winter. Improved dramatically over a couple of months...

 

[knights1212]

I think Young will definitely shoot free throws at a higher percentage. I hope Myles can get over 50 %. I watched many practices and I have seen both Young and Johnson make 9 of 10 of their foul shots when shooting them during practice sessions. I know game situations are much different but they do both have the ability to shoot foul shots at a good clip.

 

[AshCatchEm]

Myles should be benched for cliff if he can't improve his FT

 

[Knight Owl]

Myles should be benched for cliff if he can't improve his FT

Myles is dominant defensively and will play at least 20 minutes per game. I could see Cliff playing in late games situations if he can show that he can be a difference-maker defensively AND make FT’s.

 

[RutgHoops]

One clip, but this looks to be a much improved stroke from ‘Tez.

 

[Scangg]

The answer so far is clearly "better" with the exception of Geo who is again struggling and Palmquist who is off to a slow start. Both should shoot better the remainder of the season. Harper and Young leading the way

Harper - 50% - absolutely phenomenal

Young - 40% - massive improvement

Mathis & Mulcahy - 39% - great for both

Geo - 27% - ouch - ankle injury hopefully the reason but he has not shot well for his career 32% and has seen a decrease every year in percentage. Look for Geo to get in a groove and finish his senior season strong

Palmquist - 22% - very disappointing but nice stroke. He will be a good 3 point shooter here eventually. Rest of season I bet he shoots 35% +

 

[lilphilw]

The answer so far is clearly "better" with the exception of Geo who is again struggling and Palmquist who is off to a slow start. Both should shoot better the remainder of the season. Harper and Young leading the way

Harper - 50% - absolutely phenomenal

Young - 40% - massive improvement

Mathis & Mulcahy - 39% - great for both

Geo - 27% - ouch - ankle injury hopefully the reason but he has not shot well for his career 32% and has seen a decrease every year in percentage. Look for Geo to get in a groove and finish his senior season strong

Palmquist - 22% - very disappointing but nice stroke. He will be a good 3 point shooter here eventually. Rest of season I bet he shoots 35% +

It's early & these percentages will most likely even out as more shots & games are played. Doubtful Harper will stay at that 50% average. Same with Young at 40%. Would be HUGE improvements but expect they will take a dip. While Geo & Palmquist going up towards 30%. Clearly a better shooting team overall. Will be interesting to see where everyone is by the end of the year.