4 remaining guys - Davis / Ogbole / Grant / Dortch

[PSAL_Hoops]

I have no clue what kind of inside scoop these guys have , but according to this podcast the early word is the 4 guys remaining on the roster plan to return as of right now.

If you don’t feel like listening to it - it’s early in the transcript “I’m not anticipating them leaving, hearing they are going to be around”.

 

[Joey Bags]

frankly would be shocked if Grant was on the roster next year. Agree the other three will likely return

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

frankly would be shocked if Grant was on the roster next year. Agree the other three will likely return

I’m not rendering an opinion - just relaying what was reported on the Scarlet Nation podcast released yesterday.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Also - they clarify a little about the scholarship limit thing which is confusing. We could take 15 technically but they make it sound like we might only take 13 as financial limitations may not make it such that 15 makes sense. It’s a pretty good listen with some good info.

 

[lion1983]

frankly would be shocked if Grant was on the roster next year. Agree the other three will likely return

Based on what? Nothing but your uninformed pessimism.

 

[Joey Bags]

Based on what? Nothing but your uninformed pessimism.

Based on the entire state of this sport right now lmao

Grant is a skilled player with upside potential playing on a team that is basically a complete unknown for next year. Easy to take a bag and play for a more established team, no ill will if that ends up his decision.

 

[goru7]

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I have no clue what kind of inside scoop these guys have , but according to this podcast the early word is the 4 guys remaining on the roster plan to return as of right now.

If you don’t feel like listening to it - it’s early in the transcript “I’m not anticipating them leaving, hearing they are going to be around”.

We have almost no offense returning and if Grant progresses maybe 10 points a game so better hit a home run in the portal with at least 2 guards that are scorers , shooters and 2 way players that can keep their man in front of them. Plus need a rim protector. Things are not looking good and losing Lathan made it worse.

 

[RUInsanity]

Based on the entire state of this sport right now lmao

Grant is a skilled player with upside potential playing on a team that is basically a complete unknown for next year. Easy to take a bag and play for a more established team, no ill will if that ends up his decision.

He really hasn't shown enough to earn a big bag. He likely would be in a better position to stay and start at RU next season. He will likely be more assured of minutes and If he produces he will be in a better spot to earn NIL next season.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

We are going go be godawful next season.

 

[Scarlet Jerry]

Based on the entire state of this sport right now lmao

Grant is a skilled player with upside potential playing on a team that is basically a complete unknown for next year. Easy to take a bag and play for a more established team, no ill will if that ends up his decision.

There are no "established teams" anymore. It's a game of musical chairs, with everyone hoping for a seat and a bag of money.

 

[Shelby65]

Dortch has no game. Can hardly do anything offensively.

Of the four, only Grant has offensive talent.

We need to find 60 ppg in the portal to have a chance at a decent season.

 

[Mr Magoo]

Dortch has no game. Can hardly do anything offensively.

Of the four, only Grant has offensive talent.

We need to find 60 ppg in the portal to have a chance at a decent season.

That means Pike needs to find 10.5 Derkacks or 2 dozen PJ Hayes in the portal.

 

[Jerseylegends]

Welp as an investor it would've been smart to sell the team before the season started. Now would be a good time to buy the team, based on the comments here, it's at an all time low lol...I'm buying because I think I understand how this team got into trouble with roster construction.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Pike will bring a team of absolute studs from portal...fear not

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

JMike and Ogbole look ready to explode...that's an easy 35 points a night right there

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I’m hoping we spend the bulk of whatever money we have on 2-3 guys. If we can do that and get these 4 back as complimentary pieces I’m ok with that. None of them are awful to have on a 13-15 player roster and won’t be expensive. We certainly don’t need to be saying more than 5 spots for incoming transfers because we’re simply not going to have the money to purchase that many good ones.

 

[Howie!975]

We are going go be godawful next season.

We are where most college teams are now. Few players returning but NIL to spend. See who Pike brings in then can predict.

 

[darkcheck]

Dortch has no game. Can hardly do anything offensively.

Of the four, only Grant has offensive talent.

We need to find 60 ppg in the portal to have a chance at a decent season.

We have a better chance of finding past posts where Shelby speaks in first person

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

We are where most college teams are now. Few players returning but NIL to spend. See who Pike brings in then can predict.

I’m inclined to agree. For starters we’re definitely better off with these 4 returning than not because we’re not going to be adding more than 5 players who will project to contribute more than any of them.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

That means Pike needs to find 10.5 Derkacks or 2 dozen PJ Hayes in the portal.

I hope not. He can’t look at it this way or the way Shelby put it. If we’re chasing PPG that’ll likely mean we compile a collection of awkward parts that don’t fit together well again only this time without 2 NBA bound stars.

We know we’re not operating at an advantage with NIL funds but the one thing that is true of this “new era” is that even the very worst of the power conference teams will be positioned to add talent immediately following a down year unlike in the Eddie Jordan era where adding major talent year over year really could only happen with development or hitting the jackpot on a frosh. The bottom line is - most teams aren’t going to be spending 7 figures to back fill their benches. So at the end of the day - money will talk which means the math works out so that we can play ball to land at least 2 top tier transfer - at least we’d better. Let’s call it 2.5.

That’s what I would do if I was Pike. If he chases the points like last year by adding a bunch of under 400K guys who put up points on bad teams hoping to get a few Cam Spencers it’s not going to work out. Going back to blackjack - let’s define a hand of 17 as a kid whose at the cusp - able to contribute some utility minutes / be a role player at P5 level. I dont want to see Pike aiming to add 5 guys who are all guaranteed 17s (like Acuff and Jordan) but major question marks about possibly landing higher than that. I’d rather burn through the resources and pay what it takes to grab 2-3 guys whose floor is a 19 and fill positions of need if that makes sense and then backfill the other 3-5 remaining openings with guys who have bust potential - unknowns who come on the cheap (starting hands of 13-15).

My feeling is that if we keep the 4 guys we have - those are 17s already. I want 2 surefire starters added to that to replace Ace and Dylan - top level ones. Then ideally - one more borderline kid whose maybe an 18. Not as expensive but some proven ability. If we go that route - we’ll have 4 frosh coming in and whatever guys we pick up on the cheap late cycle with those hands requiring us to hit (13-15). We’ll bust on a bunch but maybe we’ll get lucky with a few too.

 

[lion1983]

I’m hoping we spend the bulk of whatever money we have on 2-3 guys. If we can do that and get these 4 back as complimentary pieces I’m ok with that. None of them are awful to have on a 13-15 player roster and won’t be expensive. We certainly don’t need to be saying more than 5 spots for incoming transfers because we’re simply not going to have the money to purchase that many good ones.

This.

I was thinking this ... if RU truly has $4 million to $4.5 million in NIL + Revenue sharing, then after retention and frosh $$ spent (and how much can that really be given the players they are trying to retain and the 4 frosh? Gotta be less than $1 million total, no?), RU should have at least $3 million, maybe $3.5 million.

You have 4 retained players, 4 frosh coming in, for 8. Spend $3 million on 3 players: 1 rim-protecting/defensive/rebounding center, 1 2G who can score, shoot the 3 and defend and one WF with length who can score, shoot from 3 and defend.

Then spend $250K to $500K (if that is what is left) on 1-2 12-15 minute reserve players, specialists - maybe 1 defensive specialist and 1 off-the-bench scoring spark specialist.

Gee ... maybe I should be the GM?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This.

I was thinking this ... if RU truly has $4 million to $4.5 million in NIL + Revenue sharing, then after retention and frosh $$ spent (and how much can that really be given the players they are trying to retain and the 4 frosh? Gotta be less than $1 million total, no?), RU should have at least $3 million, maybe $3.5 million.

You have 4 retained players, 4 frosh coming in, for 8. Spend $3 million on 3 players: 1 rim-protecting/defensive/rebounding center, 1 2G who can score, shoot the 3 and defend and one WF with length who can score, shoot from 3 and defend.

Then spend $250K to $500K (if that is what is left) on 1-2 12-15 minute reserve players, specialists - maybe 1 defensive specialist and 1 off-the-bench scoring spark specialist.

Gee ... maybe I should be the GM?

If fairness to Pike, it’s probably not this simple. For starters, the sad reality is that if Lathan was worth anything close to $1M to project as a back up for Washington, the market for the kind of players we need is likely more than that - at least for the center. We can probably can’t afford 3 top tier players. It’s likely only 2. Maybe even 1.5.

But here’s the problem as I see it. We also have to be really careful with what we offer to the bottom tier of what we bring in and which guys are getting what. Timing is important too, and that’s why I hate that the NJIT kid is an early focus unless it’s the case that he’s willing to come to us on the cheap. Offering a kid like that more than what it’s going to cost to retain our 4 remaining kids right now would, like with Paul, send J Mike packing, as it should. The kids we should be targeting in my opinion should be the kind of players none of our returners would question deserve a bigger package. Have to think about that too.

 

[Rutgers85]

 

[lion1983]

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Duh!

We know the stats.

Obviously, RU needs at least 1 of those players (Grant being the most likely, followed by Davis) to make a real jump in offensive production. It is not unheard of for Big 10 frosh to go from more limited minutes and single-digit scoring to double-digit scoring - even leading their team in scoring. RU has not had that happen, but it HAS happened for teams like Iowa, Wisconsin, Maryland, and others ... RU needs it to happen THIS coming season. I am not saying Grant will pull a Keegan Murray , but a jump would be nice.

Here are some examples in the last 5-10 years:

2024-25: John Blackwell of Wisconsin: Frosh year 8 ppg in 19 mpg, Soph year 15.8 ppg in 31 mpg

2022-23 through 2024-25: Braden Smith of Purdue: 9.7 ppg as a freshman, 12 ppg as a sophomore, 15+ ppg as a Junior

2024-25: Devin Royal of Ohio St: Frosh year 4.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg in 11 mpg, last year, Sophomore year, 13,7 ppg, 6.9 rpg in 29 mpg. AND ... in a different way, Bruce Thornton went from 10 ppg as a freshman, to 15 ppg as a Sophomore ot 17 ppg as a Junior - but 30+ mpg each year.

Iowa has had multiple players like this: Owen Freeman from 10.6 ppg as a freshman, to 17 ppg as a Soph; Josh Dix from 2 ppg in 9 mpg as a frosh, to 8 ppg in 24 mpg as a Soph to 14 ppg in 30 mpg as a Junior,; Keegan Murray from 7 ppg in 19 mpg as a frosh to 23.5 ppg (and 1st team AA) in 32 mpg as a Junior; Peyton Sandfort from 5 ppg in 11 mpg as a frosh, to 10 ppg in 20 mpg as a Soph to 16 ppg in 31 mog as a Junior; Kris Murray from 3 mpg as a frosh, to 9.7 ppg in 18 mpg as a Soph to 20 ppg in 35 mpg as a Junior (3rd team AA).

There are many more ... but RU NEVER seems to have that happen. Partly because RU players may not be as highly rated, you have to assume, partly because RU often has to force-feed even frosh into a lot of minutes AS frosh, partly due to coaching, I suppose also.

Some recent examples where we might have hoped - but did NOT get the upward development, despite an INCREASDE in minutes and role (Davis of this year is not included since his minutes declined as Harper replaced him mostly):

Simpson - from FR to SO - only a small increase in ppg despite a 30% increase in minutes - and much worse offensive efficiency

Omoruyi - He DID actually show that growth! From 17 mpg and 4 ppg and 4 rpg as a frosh to 29 mpg, 12 ppg and 8 rpg as a Soph

Harper - Also developed! From 8 ppg in 22 mpg as a frosh to 12 ppg in 28 mpg as a Soph, to 15 ppg in 32 mpg as a Junior

Geo Baker - not that trajectory - was force-fed as a FR with 31 mpg, and never really advanced beyond a 10-12 ppg scorer. FYI - Same with McConnell - not a scorer ever, really, so not really count here.

Mulcahy - did have a large increase in minutes from FR to SO years (50% increase from 18 mpg to 27 mpg), but only moved from 3.5 ppg to 6 ppg - never really a scorer.

Mathis - Never developed and remained the same player throughout his career.

Eugene Omoruyi - Actually did show a strong trajectory, though it took until his JR s=year to really explode offensively - from 12 mpg to 22 mpg to 29 mpg, and from 3 ppg, to 8 ppg to 14 ppg.

Corey Sanders - was fully developed/fully baked from day 1 - so not an example here.

Ten years ago Myles Mack and Kadeem jack both showed a trajectory of earning increased minutes and increasing their offensive performance, Mack from FR to SO years in particular, Jack from FR to SO to Jr years.

 

[FinalFourOrBust]

Grant returning is a pleasant surprise

 

[RUJMM78]

The 14.4 point scoring average from the four returning players is a serious concern because it puts added pressure on getting at least three double digit scoring threats from the transfer portal.

 

[lion1983]

The 14.4 point scoring average from the four returning players is a serious concern because it puts added pressure on getting at least three double digit scoring threats from the transfer portal.

Or 2 - and hope for decelopment from Garnt and/or Davis. Certainly, the development of more minutes and more consistency from Grant can be hoped for - and not unrealistic.

 

[Shelby65]

We have a better chance of finding past posts where Shelby speaks in first person

There’s no “I” in Shelby parlance. Neither is a there an “I” in team so Shelby isn’t disappointed in selfish players leaving….and wishes JMike does as well. Problem with him is that he’s got it too good here; only takers would be the lowest of low majors seeking reserves.

 

[RUBlackout7]

Ogbole is not the plan for center next year, right?

 

[-RUFAN4LIFE-]

Ogbole is not the plan for center next year, right?

Correct, however if they are priced out of the market then it is what it is.

 

[scarletrat]

It's not just the money, but it's what Pike and staff do with what they have. Not a high batting average as we've discussed. Other teams have landed mid-major players who then improved a lot and fit.

We get guys who don't fit and can't fit the scheme around the players brought in.

Yet somehow Pike gets paid like a top 25 coach.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Ogbole is not the plan for center next year, right?

I’d have to imagine (or at least hope) he’s the plan for back up center and not Ware. If that ends up being the case - we’re fine. Ware needs to start as the 3rd option.

That said - I’m inclined to agree with others that top priority needs to be to “buy” the best available physical post player we can convince to come here even if that player is technically classified as a forward. Before his injury, Ogbole was playing 15 mpg and by no means was he this stand out problem where when Lathan came out things dropped off. We don’t want him playing +20 because of his limitations but we do have 6-8 Nwuli and Bryce and if we could get a physical 6-9 forward who is a clear day one starter we might be okay. I’m not sure how often we’ll press but in that scheme, Grant could also slide to the 3 and play with 2 taller forwards.

My concern is if our plan for the starter in the backcourt is this NJIT kid. That can’t be. We need to spend a chunk on someone established at the high major level or someone who stood out on a successful mid-major team in the least.

 

[lion1983]

My concern is if our plan for the starter in the backcourt is this NJIT kid. That can’t be. We need to spend a chunk on someone established at the high major level or someone who stood out on a successful mid-major team in the least.

This times 100.

Francis is only OK by me if he is the FOURTH or FIFTH portal transfer, brought in as a reserve specialist to provide offensive spark ... I see him as LESS likely to contribute than Acuff or Fernandes, with similar flaws on offense (though not as good a 3-point shooter as either Acuff or Fernandes), more athletic than Acuff, but shorter - in fact way too short.

In other words, NOT a starter for a Big 10 team, not even if he would be the 5th best starter.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This times 100.

Francis is only OK by me if he is the FOURTH or FIFTH portal transfer, brought in as a reserve specialist to provide offensive spark ... I see him as LESS likely to contribute than Acuff or Fernandes, with similar flaws on offense (though not as good a 3-point shooter as either Acuff or Fernandes), more athletic than Acuff, but shorter - in fact way too short.

In other words, NOT a starter for a Big 10 team, not even if he would be the 5th best starter.

The bigger problem I have with this kid as our first guard target in the portal is the 3.1 turnovers per game. That’s horrendous for a guard who played against American East defenders all season.

We take for granted that J-Mike has become a competent primary ball handler. His decision making may not have improved as much as we hoped from frosh season, but his ball handling certainly has - nobody could argue that he’s not “good enough” as he may even be above average at navigating pressure. To assume an incoming frosh like Lino will come in able to do this would be naive. Geo wasn’t even fully ready to take that role over from Corey as a sophomore. He and Caleb took their lumps. Remember Derek vs Temple? J-Mike is likely going to be the starting and primary PG, and frankly, he probably should be because we can’t afford to pay a premium for an established PG who plays defense along with a good shooting guard and post player. For this reason, we need to be ok with J Mike and hope that when he’s not competing as much for PT he’ll resist driving into traffic which is really his biggest flaw.

All this said - it seems like an incredibly stupid idea to bring in a guard who doesn’t handle the ball well enough to spell J-Mike and wouldn’t likely play beside him at the 2 because he is only listed at 6.0 FEET. Does not seem like a good fit at all.

 

[seansherm]

The bigger problem I have with this kid as our first guard target in the portal is the 3.1 turnovers per game. That’s horrendous for a guard who played against American East defenders all season.

We take for granted that J-Mike has become a competent primary ball handler. His decision making may not have improved as much as we hoped from frosh season, but his ball handling certainly has - nobody could argue that he’s not “good enough” as he may even be above average at navigating pressure. To assume an incoming frosh like Lino will come in able to do this would be naive. Geo wasn’t even fully ready to take that role over from Corey as a sophomore. He and Caleb took their lumps. Remember Derek vs Temple? J-Mike is likely going to be the starting and primary PG, and frankly, he probably should be because we can’t afford to pay a premium for an established PG who plays defense along with a good shooting guard and post player. For this reason, we need to be ok with J Mike and hope that when he’s not competing as much for PT he’ll resist driving into traffic which is really his biggest flaw.

All this said - it seems like an incredibly stupid idea to bring in a guard who doesn’t handle the ball well enough to spell J-Mike and wouldn’t likely play beside him at the 2 because he is only listed at 6.0 FEET. Does not seem like a good fit at all.

The fact that RU isn't even sure they want him, tells us they aren't thinking of him as a starting caliber guy. That's a positive sign at least.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The fact that RU isn't even sure they want him, tells us they aren't thinking of him as a starting caliber guy. That's a positive sign at least.

Good point. The more I think about it, our fans may not like it, but keeping J Mike around better have been an early priority on Pike’s list. I don’t know what the market for a projected A-10 starting PG is, but whatever that number is Pike, needed (or needs) to make sure our offer is competitive if not slightly better than that.

Anyone who thinks we’re landing a guaranteed better option than him within our budget to run the point is simply not in touch with reality. His minutes declined because he’s not that tall and he played the same position as Dylan Harper. No other reason. Since we’re not going to be getting a power conference PG starter, we may as well just keep our rising junior PG who has been in our system two years already. Why assume some PG who performed at the midmajor level will be better? Remember - J-Mike beat out Noah for PT as a frosh. The knock was his shooting and this year J-Mike improved his 3 point shooting to 33.3%. His FT shooting is still poor for a guard but he did improve year over year.

He certainly has some flaws but the pros of keeping him in Piscataway greatly outweigh the cons. Hopefully them negotiations with him are set and our backcourt focus is trying to find the best pair of 2 way shooting guard and wing we can find in the portal to complement him knowing that we need to save budget for an established post player. We need to spend 3M on those 3 positions. Hopefully under 1M total for the returning guys and frosh. Then whatever we can scrap together in leftovers to fill out the roster and that would include a kid like Francis.

 

[seansherm]

Good point. The more I think about it, our fans may not like it, but keeping J Mike around better have been an early priority on Pike’s list. I don’t know what the market for a projected A-10 starting PG is, but whatever that number is Pike, needed (or needs) to make sure our offer is competitive if not slightly better than that.

Anyone who thinks we’re landing a guaranteed better option than him within our budget to run the point is simply not in touch with reality. His minutes declined because he’s not that tall and he played the same position as Dylan Harper. No other reason. Since we’re not going to be getting a power conference PG starter, we may as well just keep our rising junior PG who has been in our system two years already. Why assume some PG who performed at the midmajor level will be better? Remember - J-Mike beat out Noah for PT as a frosh. The knock was his shooting and this year J-Mike improved his 3 point shooting to 33.3%. His FT shooting is still poor for a guard but he did improve year over year.

He certainly has some flaws but the pros of keeping him in Piscataway greatly outweigh the cons. Hopefully them negotiations with him are set and our backcourt focus is trying to find the best pair of 2 way shooting guard and wing we can find in the portal to complement him knowing that we need to save budget for an established post player. We need to spend 3M on those 3 positions. Hopefully under 1M total for the returning guys and frosh. Then whatever we can scrap together in leftovers to fill out the roster and that would include a kid like Francis.

No doubt, I agree, he was a priority keep, for multiple reasons. He's seen and been part of a good Pike defense. He did get better from year 1 to year 2 and I expect another step forward. He handles the ball well, doesn't give it away. We all know he has deficiencies. I said before last year he would play more than people thought, he did.