Hope the OSU game kicks in as a tiebreaker
BACATOLOGY: 3/11 NCAA Tournament Analysis***Rutgers 95% in***
- Thread starter bac2therac
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99% out of Dayton - I rarely claim certainty, lol...
Yes. We’re now the 2nd team in. But as others said…it’s more average rankings than number of brackets. So it may be deceiving
Hope you’re right but I’m just not seeing that confidence
Seeing a bunch of projections taking us to Denver. Would be fun
Yep. Especially since the greatest board predictor of all time (plum street) predicted Dayton in mid February !
Let’s hope it’s not Dayton though
Yeah I hope that, all our close losses, and the way we played in the BTT are all taken into consideration by the committee. If so, I think we avoid Dayton
The biggest issue with quadrants etc is that a 1 point loss to Seton Hall (78 NET) gets thrown in the "bad loss" pile but a 31 point neutral site loss to Michigan (62 NET) is a don't-worry-about-it Q2 loss
Lunardi has us in the played their way in category
IMO the only WTF loss we had was against Minnesota and that was by a point on a last second shot. Temple without 2 starters who beat #1 team in country, Seton Hall which is rivalry game and Nebraska is a tournament team in ACC. I will also add that both of our games against Ohio St were when they had Key and playing great
if you factor in OSU...should be a cakewalk...no?
meaning...if it's a coinflip before OSU...doesnt OSU move us in to the category of being a lock for not going to Dayton? Esp with all bid stealers being done?
Hope/think the OSU “tiebreaker” and solid Net (compared to other bubbles) keeps us out of Dayton.
Numbers saying 1% Dayton is certifiably insane, though. I’m in the ~30% range (that we’re in Dayton) personally
Numbers saying 1% Dayton is certifiably insane, though. I’m in the ~30% range (that we’re in Dayton) personally
Yes. I think 99% of bracketologists have us in. Again, just a matter of Dayton or not. That’s the question
No. The OSU game doesn’t eliminate our losses to Minny, Neby, Seton Hall, Temple, and our not so great play down the stretch. It’s those reasons we’re a possibility for Dayton
Does the committee take into account the margin of losses?
Our worst margin of defeat was 13 points (twice), once on the road to MSU (70-57) and once at home to Michigan (58-45). Other than those two games, we’ve lost by the following point margins: 6, 7, 1* (OSU), 2, 9, 11, 6, 9, 10, 1, 12, 5.
I’d venture a guess that all of the other teams on the bubble — and frankly most teams PERIOD — all have losses of 20+ points.
I have to think this is another data point in our favor, however slight.
Our worst margin of defeat was 13 points (twice), once on the road to MSU (70-57) and once at home to Michigan (58-45). Other than those two games, we’ve lost by the following point margins: 6, 7, 1* (OSU), 2, 9, 11, 6, 9, 10, 1, 12, 5.
I’d venture a guess that all of the other teams on the bubble — and frankly most teams PERIOD — all have losses of 20+ points.
I have to think this is another data point in our favor, however slight.
you're jumping around.
when factoring in all those things...we're on the edge...right?
THEN, you factor in OSU...and logic would suggest that moves us comfortably off the edge.
I get we're Rutgers fans...and we expect the worst...but following logic should dictate we're safe. And if we go to Dayton, we would have gotten screwed.
Definitely a factor, who knows how much. Also already factored in by our solid Net
Factoring in what happened at OSU isn’t gonna move the needle that much. They’re a non Tourny team that even if taken into account, we beat by 1. Not a huge difference maker imo.
It would’ve been a quad 2 road victory, and would make our conference road record 5-5. It’s significant.
We’ll see. Again..there’s a reason we’re still in Dayton on almost a majority of brackets.
There is also an assumption that losing to the #119 team is basically exactly the same as losing to #120. Well, Temple also beat Houston and Villanova. How many other teams ranked next to them had that ceiling?
Is losing to Temple like losing to Cal State Fullerton? Rating says yes.
I think our hopes of a 10 are out. 9 teams from BIG is a lot, and with PSU's run we are clearly 9th team. I hope committee doesn't make example of RU for BIG's poor performance in NCAAs recently and the disasterous Minnesota game. Unlikely, but possible. We are not a lock, though I have us as an 11 No Dayton.
I mean if it’s something we’re looking at on here I would like to assume it’s something they would look at too. And if so, the way a lot of the teams around the bubble got absolutely blown out in their conference tournaments can only help us I would think
But the committee is “considering” the game in its calculus because of the Big Ten’s admission that we should have won. This could very well tip the balance between us ending up in Dayton or ending up with a non-Dayton 10 or more likely 11 seed.
It certainly “could”…but again I don’t think it’s gonna make a huge impact. If we do avoid Dayton…that game is probably a huge factor and I’d stand corrected.
I agree that Ohio State "win" is what gets us out of Dayton. But it's such a close call, anything can happen. There are legit reasons they could cite as last four out.
Bac is eerily silent this morning. I’m envisioning him holed up in his basement performing final bacatology calculations.
