BACATOLOGY: 3/11 NCAA Tournament Analysis***Rutgers 95% in***

[SirScarlet]

It certainly “could”…but again I don’t think it’s gonna make a huge impact. If we do avoid Dayton…that game is probably a huge factor and I’d stand corrected.

you have been banging this drum for several days now...and every time someone gives you a data point you just say "we'll see"

WE GET IT...you think we're going to Dayton...LOL

I know we hope (you included) that you're wrong.

we deserve the bye...we've earned it.

the data clearly shows that.

 

[mikemarc1]

no we are the third team in

Yes…see my post above. It updated.

When I originally posted we were 2nd team in

 

[bac2therac]

Yes it does

not really...thats all baked into the metrics

 

[DHajekRC84]

Arizona wins as UCLA misses a good look 3 at the buzzer

CBD and Bill put me to sleep for 2nd half. Oh well, there went UCLA's overall no. 1 per him.

 

[Raritan83]

But the committee is “considering” the game in its calculus because of the Big Ten’s admission that we should have won. This could very well tip the balance between us ending up in Dayton or ending up with a non-Dayton 10 or more likely 11 seed.

And why exactly do we believe they are considering it? Because one Rutgers writer said so? It has been reported nowhere else. So many games throughout the year have ref errors do they re litigate them all? What about last nights phantom foul call on UCLA negating a basket? Maybe UCLA wins or sends to OT with that call. Slippery slope.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I agree that Ohio State "win" is what gets us out of Dayton. But it's such a close call, anything can happen. There are legit reasons they could cite as last four out.

What about missing 2 major starters vs Temple? Why is this getting pushed to the side as a complete non-factor while there’s so much injury chatter by the talking heads. Will they focus on Mag? Vandy injuries? Creighton losing stretch.

What gives? If injuries doget even second thought, that Temple game should be at the top of the list for committee radar. It’s not one guy who was out out. It was two 32 mpg guys who are really more than 32 mpg when you realize they played less in multiple games where they were working their way back from injury.

 

[mikemarc1]

you have been banging this drum for several days now...and every time someone gives you a data point you just say "we'll see"

WE GET IT...you think we're going to Dayton...LOL

I know we hope (you included) that you're wrong.

we deserve the bye...we've earned it.

the data clearly shows that.

I just disagree: I think the data shows were an extremely bi-polar team that can beat anyone but at the same time lose to anyone. And that’s a perfect candidate for a play in game…go prove you belong.

I certainly hope I’m wrong as you said. Lol

 

[kcg88]

so 96.6% lol. who are those four? really?

A&M was on 92% of brackets and was left out last year.

 

[mikemarc1]

not really...thats all baked into the metrics

But doesn’t committee also factor in eye test?

Margin of victory/defeat is critical to that, id think

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

What about missing 2 major starters vs Temple? Why is this getting pushed to the side as a complete non-factor while there’s so much injury chatter by the talking heads. Will they focus on Mag? Vandy injuries? Creighton losing stretch.

What gives? If injuries doget even second thought, that Temple game should be at the top of the list for committee radar. It’s not one guy who was out out. It was two 32 mpg guys who are really more than 32 mpg when you realize they played less in multiple games where they were working their way back from injury.

I agree.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Bracket Dave still has us as the last bye.

Providence, ASU, Pitt and NC State to Dayton

That would be a nice session to watch live.

 

[Plum Street]

That would be a nice session to watch live.

Split sessions with the 16s

 

[mikemarc1]

A&M was on 92% of brackets and was left out last year.

There’s never been a team left out of the field that had 95% or more of brackets in bracket matrix.

Rutgers should be ok

 

[kcg88]

There’s never been a team left out of the field that had 95% or more of brackets in bracket matrix.

Rutgers should be ok

Agreed. I'm just saying sometimes the committee is weird. That's why bac has it at 95% and not 100%.

 

[bac2therac]

a big problem with seeding incoming with Penn State who has clearly played their way to a 9 and possibly 8 if they win the Big 10 tourney

Here is the issue. Northwestern and MSU look to be 7s

Iowa, Illinois and Maryland are 8s and 9s. Now Penn State has joined the fray making 4 Big 10 schools.

It means one of two things can happen. Purdue possibly gets matched up against Illinois or Iowa because they have only played one time (rules allow for this) or one Big 10 school gets dropped a seed line. Not sure how they approach it with the late game. Will they do a contingency bracket for a Penn State win and then dropping Iowa or Illinois to a 10 if Penn State wins the Big 10 tourney or do they just put Penn State the 10 right now and hope the Lions lose so they do not take criticism. Quite frankly PSUs play and resume is trending more to a 7 than a 10 but it would take a Big 10 tourney title to get me there. Tough call.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

We should feel pretty good about at least playing in Dayton. But we have also given the committee ammunition to have us last four out, if they wanna make an example of Big Ten’s disappointing Tournament play in recent years.

 

[SirScarlet]

But doesn’t committee also factor in eye test?

Margin of victory/defeat is critical to that, id think

lets hope they factor in eye test...would make us eve more of a lock to avoid Dayton

 

[bac2therac]

And why exactly do we believe they are considering it? Because one Rutgers writer said so? It has been reported nowhere else. So many games throughout the year have ref errors do they re litigate them all? What about last nights phantom foul call on UCLA negating a basket? Maybe UCLA wins or sends to OT with that call. Slippery slope.

wish our media and Breitman would have followed up on this. Breitman is a good guy, but you dont put that out there and then follow up on it again

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Agreed. I'm just saying sometimes the committee is weird. That's why bac has it at 95% and not 100%.

Agreed. Unless this is year they choose to make an example of last Big Ten team, which for the last few years we have been teetering on that cut line. But again, I think we sneak in again.

 

[SirScarlet]

I just disagree: I think the data shows were an extremely bi-polar team that can beat anyone but at the same time lose to anyone. And that’s a perfect candidate for a play in game…go prove you belong.

I certainly hope I’m wrong as you said. Lol

no argument...except there are more teams that should have to "prove you belong" before us.

that's the point.

 

[bac2therac]

Agreed. I'm just saying sometimes the committee is weird. That's why bac has it at 95% and not 100%.

everyone seems in lock step more than usual this year....I am expecting a curveball for sure but probably at a ACC school expense....it really wouldnt surprise me if Providence got left out.

 

[fatsam98]

Here's my latest thinking on geography.

Assuming we're an 11 seed (whether in Dayton or not), which appears to be the general consensus today from Lunardi, Wachtel, and others, we'd be in an opening weekend pod with a 6 seed, a 3 seed, and a 14 seed. The geography will be dictated by whoever that 3 seed is. The 8 sites are assigned to the top 16 seeds, preferential treatment given to the higher seeds until each site is 'used' twice.

Reasonably Likely

• Albany (w/ UConn)
• Greensboro (w/ Tennessee or Kansas State)
• Columbus (w/ Marquette or Xavier or Kansas State)

Unlikely

• Orlando (will likely fall to two 4 seeds -- none of the top 16 seeds are geographically near Orlando)
• Sacramento (in theory could happen if Gonzaga is a 3 seed and they give Sacramento to UCLA and Arizona goes to Denver, leaving Sacramento for the Zags)
• Denver (most brackets have two of Arizona/Texas/Baylor going there, all current 2 seeds). But could fall to a 3 seed if they put the Texas schools in Des Moines instead
• Des Moines (possibly with Marquette or even Gonzaga depending on how the final seed list pans out). But Kansas is a lock for Des Moines and likely one of Texas or Baylor.

Definitely Not Happening

• Birmingham (1 seeds Houston and Alabama will be there)

If we end up as a 10 seed (like Bac is currently predicting) then Sacramento/Denver/Des Moines become very likely.

If something weird happens with bid thieves and we somehow fall to a 12 seed, Orlando and Albany and to a lesser extent Greensboro are likely.

Lastly, not to look too far ahead, but the first weekend sites are NOT linked to specific regions ahead of Selection Sunday. So for example if we end up in Albany it could be in the West Region. Or dream scenario we get Albany and it's in the East Region

Sunday Update...

Move Denver up to one of the "likely" sites, based on Marquette moving up to a 2 seed and Baylor down to a 3. Zags could be in Denver too as a 3 seed.

So likely sites, assuming we're an 11 seed, are Albany, Columbus, Greensboro, and Denver. All of which happen to be the Friday/Sunday sites.

Sacramento, Des Moines, and Orlando all unlikely.

Still no chance of Birmingham.

 

[DHajekRC84]

IMO the only WTF loss we had was against Minnesota and that was by a point on a last second shot. Temple without 2 starters who beat #1 team in country, Seton Hall which is rivalry game and Nebraska is a tournament team in ACC. I will also add that both of our games against Ohio St were when they had Key and playing great

for those who care to dig and gain insight.

 

[Degaz-RU]

And why exactly do we believe they are considering it? Because one Rutgers writer said so? It has been reported nowhere else. So many games throughout the year have ref errors do they re litigate them all? What about last nights phantom foul call on UCLA negating a basket? Maybe UCLA wins or sends to OT with that call. Slippery slope.

Well, yeah. Aaron Breitman reported this based on sources. He is a trusted reporter who would not have said it unless he had trusted sources.

 

[King of S]

Bac is eerily silent this morning. I’m envisioning him holed up in his basement performing final bacatology calculations.

Maybe he’s at church!

 

[bac2therac]

But doesn’t committee also factor in eye test?

Margin of victory/defeat is critical to that, id think

yeah for games like Purdue that they may have watched recently but they arent watching all those earlier games..long forgotten

The good thing for RU is we looked like a tourney team the past 2 days which offsets the concerns about Mag....if we lost to Purdue by alot then there would be questions...see what happened when Pitt and NC State crapped the bed in their 2nd games

 

[bac2therac]

Well, yeah. Aaron Breitman reported this based on sources. He is a trusted reporter who would not have said it unless he had trusted sources.

he needs to spill his sources

 

[Mr Magoo]

The committee always has one or two “head scratchers”. None of the pre-announcement bracketologists are ever entirely correct. Should be interesting.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

not really...thats all baked into the metrics

It is but hopefully when it comes to evaluating losses extreme margins are considered to an extent. I don’t think anyone should get brownie points for coming “close” to winning games, but on the other hand, getting blown out of the building better be taken into account in some way other than just blended efficiency in the NET formula (MOV over 10 doesn’t matter). The quads stand alone as a separate metric. I really hope there is a way that 101-44 loss (one of the bubble teams has) is noted in a way other simply a quality high Q1 loss.

 

[bac2therac]

Maybe he’s at church!

Resumes are my religion

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Get ready to cringe as they wait to put RU in as last 11 seed announced.

 

[bac2therac]

The committee always has one or two “head scratchers”. None of the pre-announcement bracketologists are ever entirely correct. Should be interesting.

Tulsa a few years back

Notre Dame a big miss last year for many

this year it seems "TOO SETTLED" I almost expect bedlam

 

[ceranm]

Rutgers TCU in Denver is my prediction

 

[SirScarlet]

he needs to spill his sources

huh...why? his track record is solid and feel like he is someone we can trust.

I agree that it would be good if he elaborated a bit more, but one doesnt need to reveal the actual source to be credible.

but, we're probably opening up a can of worms in this thread on this topic...lol

 

[DHajekRC84]

A&M was on 92% of brackets and was left out last year.

you got the wrong guy if you think I'm sitting here smoking a cigar just yet lol.
You know how old I am and how long I've been dying for Rutgers right? If not I've got the scares to show you ..HA. 🤞

 

[fatsam98]

Wachtel sticking with us as the top Dayton seed... Miss State and Providence as the last 2 byes

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No. The OSU game doesn’t eliminate our losses to Minny, Neby, Seton Hall, Temple, and our not so great play down the stretch. It’s those reasons we’re a possibility for Dayton

You never know

 

[DHajekRC84]

Split sessions with the 16s

I know. I'm just saying that would be a nice session to watch.

HA, no. I'm kidding I'm one that can admit error. I forgot about that. Thanks.

 

[mikemarc1]

You never know

Of course. Lol. No one knows except the committee. Hope for good news but prepare for not so good news

 

[BlockR]

5 mins ago