This will be a hideous loss for them...yet they can easily win the Pac 12 tournament
BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 2/14 UPDATE 2/19 ON PAGE 17
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
He use to be entertaining and insightful. Now he's a parody and sounds like the PR director for the PAC 12
He used to be good decades ago with insights and some humor. Now he's a caricature of himself
Someday soon I am going to run a regression to figure out the weighting of the NET. I was going to do it this morning before loading up the data and realizing that the NCAA website uses so many non-standard team names that I was going to have to manually correct like 60 schools. Ugh.
He's thinking I'm 1-5 from 3 and 1-7 overall tonight and I spent a heck of a lot of time sitting on the bench.
He's got to be close to 27% from 3 this year.
JYs time at Oregon University not working out as planned.
10 points to anyone who gets this post
Creighton wins fairly easily.
St Marys over San Fran. Going to make St Marys a lock now. San Fran now with 7 losses and still have Gonzaga left. Might still be in (ill numbers crunch them and San Diego St for that last spot)
St Marys over San Fran. Going to make St Marys a lock now. San Fran now with 7 losses and still have Gonzaga left. Might still be in (ill numbers crunch them and San Diego St for that last spot)
I posted it on another thread. I’m not understanding why Creighton isn’t closer to lock status. Their resume really doesn’t have any of the flags the others have. With only 8 losses at this point (and they played a decent non-conference) seems like they’d have to mess up pretty bad not to get in?
They had a flimsy Q1 and Q2 record with a Q3 loss too. Picking up a Q2 win last night helps. I think they still need 2 more wins. They don't get in at 18-12 unless things really break their way imo
Their carrying stat right now is neutral and road wins. We'll see how that's weighted.
It’s not really that flimsy when you get past the stupid sorting tool. The have the win over Villanova (top 10 team), @ UConn, @ Marquette and the neutral win over BYU. That’s 3 solid field team. It’s not the same as Q1 road wins over NW types. And they have a ton of wins away from home.
The Q3 loss at home to Arizona State isn’t good but it’s not going to stand out like Lafayette. It’s not that bad and it’s their only one like it. How are teams like NC realistically passing them?
The only reason to root for ASU this weekend is that an Oregon loss is good for RU. Oregon State is irrelevant in bball this year but the Ducks must come to Tucson next, where the UofA is waiting. RU fans can hope that the Wildcats take care of business and Oregon leaves the desert with 10 losses on the season in a far weaker conference than the B1G.
Are any of these teams making the dance ahead of Rutgers?
Pac 12 teams:
Washington State 14-10 (NET 46th) Not sure what others see in them?
Oregon 16-9 (NET 59th) This team is like Rutgers with WTF games, but no one questions them. Loss twice to 9-16 Arizona State, loss to 9-16 Cal, and struggle for 3 pt win against 10-16 Utah. The loss to ASU tonight was ugly by the tune of 24 pts.
AAC:
Wichita State 13-9 (NET 74th)
SMU 18-6 (NET 49th) and had a bad loss to Temple (NET 118th) on Wednesday after a great win against Houston.
ACC:
Virginia 16-10 (NET 81st) somehow are listed in one tourney bracket.
Big 12:
Oklahoma 14-12 (NET 39th) is likely to finish with a losing conference record and around a .500 record overall. As of now, in the tourney in several brackets.
Oklahoma State 12-13 (NET 52nd) games against Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Baylor will cement them at .500 at best.
Kansas State 14-11 (NET 62nd) has Kansas, Texas Tech, and Iowa State, which likely means a .500 overall record.
WVU 14-11 (NET 68th) they have a 3-9 conference record, with Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State remaining on the schedule
How is the best conference when it's like five teams with winning records in conference and overall and the other five have losing conference records and .500 overall records?
Pac 12 teams:
Washington State 14-10 (NET 46th) Not sure what others see in them?
Oregon 16-9 (NET 59th) This team is like Rutgers with WTF games, but no one questions them. Loss twice to 9-16 Arizona State, loss to 9-16 Cal, and struggle for 3 pt win against 10-16 Utah. The loss to ASU tonight was ugly by the tune of 24 pts.
AAC:
Wichita State 13-9 (NET 74th)
SMU 18-6 (NET 49th) and had a bad loss to Temple (NET 118th) on Wednesday after a great win against Houston.
ACC:
Virginia 16-10 (NET 81st) somehow are listed in one tourney bracket.
Big 12:
Oklahoma 14-12 (NET 39th) is likely to finish with a losing conference record and around a .500 record overall. As of now, in the tourney in several brackets.
Oklahoma State 12-13 (NET 52nd) games against Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Baylor will cement them at .500 at best.
Kansas State 14-11 (NET 62nd) has Kansas, Texas Tech, and Iowa State, which likely means a .500 overall record.
WVU 14-11 (NET 68th) they have a 3-9 conference record, with Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State remaining on the schedule
How is the best conference when it's like five teams with winning records in conference and overall and the other five have losing conference records and .500 overall records?
Recap:
2.67 expected wins
2 actual wins
Arizona State over Oregon is the big one with the Ducks hanging right around the cut line. Oregon's computer numbers are bad and they now have 3 Q3 losses. Their two big wins over the LA schools came when USC and UCLA were coming off COVID pauses. Not sure that will be accounted for but it could be a slight penalty. Their next three are @ Arizona, vs. UCLA, vs. USC. They need to win two of those to stay afloat and even then it's iffy.
St. Mary's topped San Francisco and if the Gaels weren't ironclad locked in before I think they are now. Even if they lose to BYU, San Diego, and Gonzaga they'll get in. San Francisco on the other hand... I said it yesterday but their resume is one big win short. It helps that they've beaten a handful of teams with at-large-ish resumes (Davidson, UAB, BYU) but there's no killer win. They'll still be projected in but I can't help but feel this could be the team that everyone holds up as the example of the committee screwing the little guy. Then again, the WCC is going to get at least 3 bids and San Francisco's resume is still probably better than BYU's.
Elsewhere... Creighton got a win at Depaul to solidify their case, but they still need two more wins IMO. Colorado State has very likely locked up a bid. They're 21-3 and their last four games are Q2 or better. We're now rooting for Colorado State to beat Boise State on the last day of the season. Michigan got a big win at Iowa to vault back into the field. Bigger story from this game might be that Iowa's resume is starting to get some scrutiny. They're still very safe for now but if they lose at Ohio State and at home to Michigan State then there's a real discussion to be had.
Minor updates: North Texas went to the wire at FAU but escaped with a win. Their at-large hopes are still alive. Santa Clara won at LMU but only by 4 and dropped to 75 in the NET. Remember, they're currently a Q1 win for San Francisco and a Q1 loss for BYU but one more spot down and they'd drop to Q2. Houston easily took care of UCF. Oh well.
Big Friday/Saturday post coming up this morning.
"Bracket Dave" who is in top 10 bracketologists on bracketmatrix has us as a 9 seed this morning.
Bracket Dave
Bracket Dave
So thinking back - there was a point in time when RPI was the driving metric, where I wondered what the output would look like if they simply added another identical calculation loop for each team but stripping out the wins that brought down their raw score. That was always my biggest problem with the formula. It shouldn’t ever be that the hit you take from the 75% opponents and opponents’ opponents records hurts more on a relative basis than the benefit to your own record (25% of formula) win helps. In a system agnostic to point margin, a win should at worst have a neutral impact on raw score. That it doesn’t is a massive flaw with RPI.
So I’m not sure whether or not NET solves this problem or not as the math on the formula isn’t that transparent - but I suspect it doesn’t eliminate it. We’re all very focused on Lafayette (and we should be - it’s a terrible loss), but looking at the transparent system (assuming certain elements of it are still embedded in NET) a big reason Rutgers RPI is only 85 is based on the hit our score takes on having played 5 win Maine and 7 win CCSU. Maybe it matters less in NET but I suspect not. Our SOS and RPI raw score would be so much better at 14-9 without those 2 games (and probably some of the others). The teams we played non-conference were dreadful. It feels like the computer systems are triple punishing us for that.
Net is almost as bad as Rutgers. Bracketologists also playing catch up with them. They were 13-8 before reeling off 4 vs dregs which dont move the needle much.
We schedule terrible..its a fact..and we dont play any neutral games..and we won less road games than most. It all factors in
Yes you beat me to it. He is thinking much like I am. Rutgers resume is better than Iowa and Indiana and deserves to be above the last 4 in. You are seeing more bracketologists coming around. Who will be the ones left behind?
The NET doesn't seem to care too much if you schedule bad teams and beat them, only if you schedule bad teams and lose to them. Houston and Iowa have inflated net scores for beating up on poor teams, and only losing to good teams.
If nearly all of your wins are against teams ranked 80th or lower, and you can't beat anybody 40th or better.... imo, your rating should be somewhere between 40 and 80.
am i making this up.....did you go there or am I confusing you with someone else
At first glance, yeah, it seems that way - but maybe not on a relative basis? Remember the power of the blended average to skew things. Unfortunately - Seton Hall is the only RU OOC opponent that doesn’t have a losing record. That would be really harmful in any system that looks at aggregate record of opponents - even if less emphasized than RPI.
Check out the records of some of the teams Houston beat - Bryant 16-9, Hofstra 18-9, Rice 14-11, Texas State 18-6. And they played Wisconsin, Alabama, Virginia, etc. The whole damn AAC has a winning record except 2 teams and Houston only played them once. Iowa played 20-6 Longwood, 17-10 KC, 15-12 Utah State, Iowa State, Virginia to neutralize some of the bad teams they played.
If Rutgers finds a way to win a few games and gets in the tournament I think your argument loses a lot of merit. I can go back and find the posts of what we thought about our team. If we replaced a few of the cupcakes with teams with a pulse in Novemver and December Rutgers might be in your not above 2 games over .500 bucket.
Type T for true and F for false
Sure, but any good model is also supposed to take into account overall strength of teams beat. A team with a winning record in the NEC isn't as strong as a team with a .500 record in the Big 10. If a team has been unable to beat anyone better than 40 in eight tries, they really shouldn't be much higher than 40 themselves. If they are, it calls into question the ratings of all of the other teams, not just theirs.
Rutgers is definitely an outlier case, as we have beaten some very good teams and lost to some very bad teams, but a system that rewards beating bad teams and losing to good ones doesn't seem to me like it makes much sense.
Right now, beating Rutgers at the RAC is barely considered a Q2 win, while beating Iowa anywhere is considered a Q1 win.... Despite the fact that they've lost to every team they've faced in the top 40. To me, that calls into question the general validity of the quadrant records that are used as part of the selection process.
Which is a stupid system. Many teams with no Quad 3-4 losses have almost ZERO chance of making it beyond the first round of the Tournament.
Bubble Chaos Rooting Guide
If you need a breather you better take it tonight, with only one bubble-adjacent game and even then it's not a big one. Saturday's gonna be a whopper. I've sorted by start time so you can follow along all day.
(FRIDAY) Richmond (36%) at VCU- The Rams are still hanging onto the very fringes of the bubble, appearing on 11/115 brackets as of Wednesday. They have a potential argument as an injury special case, with PG Ace Baldwin hurt for four of their losses. They have some nice road wins and if they can pump up their Q2 win total over these next four games they'll have a shot.
(12:00) TCU at Baylor (88%) - We start with an easy (to explain) one on Saturday. A massive road win at Baylor doesn't lock TCU up but it'd be quite the feather in their cap. No feathers!
(1:00) Dayton at St. Joseph's (32%) - It surprises to me to see Dayton on as many brackets as they are (15 as of Wednesday). The good news for Rutgers fans is that Dayton's start to the season was even worse than RU's. The Flyers have an astonishing three Q4 losses, so if it came down to Rutgers vs. Dayton for a bid then the Scarlet Knights' loss to Lafayette would not be a big data point (as opposed to if it's Rutgers vs. some team with zero Q4 losses). Dayton's been blowing teams out and their upcoming stretch of @ St. Joe's, vs. UMass, @ La Salle isn't terribly difficult. But it would be nice if one of those three teams was able to throw the brakes on the Flyers' ascent.
(1:00) Notre Dame at Wake Forest - Take your pick. Notre Dame a projected 11 seed, Wake Forest a projected 10. Losing this game isn't going to be the reason either team misses the tournament, they'd also have to lose one (or two) to someone they're not supposed to after this. Wake Forest's rated higher in the NET but their resume is easier to punch holes in. Notre Dame owns a win over Kentucky which is massive. Wake Forest's only win over a tournament team right now is @ UNC and as we'll get to they might not be a projected tournament team by the time the day is through. If Wake Forest loses at home to Notre Dame and then drops one at Clemson or (especially) at home to Louisville or NC State, watch out. So I guess I've talked myself into rooting for Notre Dame here, but it's pretty low stakes so I'm not gonna assign the percentage so it stays out of my expected wins calculation.
(2:00) Oklahoma at Iowa State (58%) - This is a juicy one where a case can be made to root for Oklahoma, but the Cyclones have a decidedly better resume. Oklahoma is probably the better team (KenPom has them 12 spots higher) but heartbreaking 2-point losses to Kansas and Texas in their last two games dropped them to 14-12 and into the danger zone. Their final three are winnable by Big 12 standards (OkSt, WVU, KSU, two of those at home) but they've got @ Iowa State and @ Texas Tech to deal with first. It's likely they need to split those road games.
(2:00) Auburn (69%) at Florida - The Gators 1-point loss to A&M knocked them out of the field, but they have a chance to get a premier win and claw their way back. They can afford at most one more loss (as long it's to Auburn or Kentucky) so this won't be their last appearance in these rundowns, but man oh man it's gonna be a tough road for them if they can't get this one.
(2:00) Kansas State at Oklahoma State (63%) - Gonna be a broken record on this, but with Oklahoma State ineligible for the tournament we want them to beat as many Big 12 bubble teams as possible. They have games left with Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Iowa State. Everyone on the bubble is a HUGE Oklahoma State fan down the stretch. Kansas State has won four of five but they're playing from behind compared to the rest of the Big 12 because they didn't do anything in the non-conference. It's still too early to cross anyone in this conference out even with a loss but with a road trip to Lawrence looming, K-State needs this one. They're currently pretty far out of the field (10th out as of Wednesday), this would be a bad one to lose.
(2:30) Iowa at Ohio State (64%) - I've mentioned this in various posts but Iowa's resume is starting to get some hard second looks. They have a shiny NET number so for now none of the big mainstream bracket guys will raise the issue, but Iowa is 0-6 in Q1 games and Michigan is knocking on the door of making that 0-7 (Wolverines are 31, need to be top 30). If North Carolina is on the stone bubble with their resume (0-7, 4-0, 7-1, 7-0 across the four quadrants) then I don't understand why Iowa is so safely in with theirs (0-6, 5-2, 4-0, 8-0) when the difference is one Q3 loss vs. two Q2 losses. Now, Iowa has many many more chances at improving their Q1 record than UNC. This game and home for Michigan State are their next two and they're both Q1. If they drop these and Michigan climbs into the top 30 we could be talking about an 0-9 Q1 record.
(3:30) Saint Louis (43%) at Davidson - A two-bid A-10 is still in play, but Davidson is by far the best candidate to have an at-large case. Maybe, maybe Davidson could stomach a loss here and stay above the cut line but their win total is wildly inflated with 16 Q3/Q4 games. Good on them for going 16-0 in those matchups, but a Q2 loss here drops them to 2-4 in such games. Of note, SLU is rated higher in KenPom but they'd need to win out to get in the at-large conversation again. Getting swept last weekend by the Bonnies hurt them a lot.
(4:00) North Carolina at Virginia Tech (68%) - The Tar Heels blasted themselves in the foot with a shotgun on Wednesday, and BracketMatrix hasn't yet updated to include their Q3 home loss. If they're still in the field then it's Last 4 In at the moment. They badly need to get on the Q1 ledger (0-7 right now) and this is their best chance. At Duke in Coach K's last home game? Yeah, that's not happening. So they'd better get it done here, or pray Syracuse climbs into the top 75. On the other side Virginia Tech has won six straight to give their fans a faint glimmer of hope. For bubble purposes, if they somehow do get in it's likely to come at the expense of UNC or Miami. If they win here, for instance, the ACC would be down to four projected bids when everyone updates -- UNC and VT would both likely be out and need to play their way in. So right now that's the best outcome for the rest of the bubble.
(4:00) North Texas at UAB - I don't think either team can lose this game and still have an at-large case. I don't even know which team the CUSA offices would be rooting for to maximize their shot at 2 bids this year. Just listing it here because it does involve two teams right in the mix and should be a great under-the-radar game.
(5:00) Virginia (35%) at Miami FL - Close to a take-your-pick special. If Miami wins, Virginia is totally done even if they get the season sweep of Duke. But I'm going to root for the Cavs here to put a dent on Miami's resume. Of all the ACC bubble teams, Miami has the toughest road left (not saying much considering that conference is garbage). But they have to go at Pittsburgh (ask UNC how the Panthers are playing lately), home for Virginia Tech (still top 30 in KenPom), and at Syracuse. So the best outcome is for Virginia to win here and then lose to Duke on Wednesday, and then to root against Miami in their remaining games.
(6:00) Utah State (33%) at Boise State - Boise State is currently very safely in the field but the back end of their schedule is sneakily tricky. They can absorb a few losses but can they get in losing 4 of 5? It's quite unlikely that they DO lose 4 of 5, but the first step to losing 4 is losing 1 so let's go. Utah State was rated in the 30s by the computers a week and a half ago but they're down to #52 in KenPom and have no viable at-large path left.
(6:00) Drake (21%) at Loyola Chicago - Loyola is currently on the 9 line and is the only shot at a 2-bid MVC. Ideally they just win the conference tournament, but if they can take a Q2 loss here then the at-large picture is worth monitoring for them.
(8:00) Kansas (71%) at West Virginia - The Mountaineers desperately need a big win like this to reverse their slide. They've lost 9 of their last 10 and have fallen far from the pack. But... all six of their remaining games are Q1 so they have a chance to salvage what's currently a 2-10 Q1 record. A loss to Kansas doesn't kill them for good but it'd be time to call the ambulance.
(10:00) Oregon at Arizona (94%) - Please, Wildcats, do not give this Oregon team a lifeline.
(10:00) BYU at St. Mary's (73%) - BYU is right on the razor edge of the bubble. Lunardi has him as his last team in. A win over SMC would be massive for them, making them a near-lock (as long as they don't fumble the ball against LMU and Pepperdine to close the year). There's no shame in dropping a Q1 road game like this, but as I mentioned in the recap I like San Francisco's resume more than BYU's (and San Francisco's NET is higher). If they lose this, they'll be sweating on Selection Sunday unless they do something big in the WCC tournament. SMC is safely in, so there's nothing to be gained by them losing. Coming off games with Gonzaga and San Francisco (the latter of which likely sealed their bid), and with Gonzaga looming again next Saturday, there should be a big motivation edge in favor of BYU.
(10:00) San Diego State at Fresno State (55%) - This is a big big one to end the night on. Fresno is a good team with almost no path to the tournament, so that's exactly who we want a team currently projected at Last 4 In to be facing. When the margins are that thin, any loss (even a Q1 road loss, as this would be) is a welcome sight. SDSU would get penalized more for losing this than we would for losing at Purdue, for instance.
EXPECTED WINS: 9.03 in 17 games. Can't complain with 9-8. We're happy with 10-7 or better, or if it's the right 9-8 (or even 8-9). It's really bad if Oregon or TCU gets a top 5 road win. It's bad if BYU, West Virginia or Iowa gets a big ranked win. We'd really like San Diego State, BYU, and North Carolina to lose as they're all in the fielld but closest to the cut line at the moment. Those are the biggest ones I think.
On the fringes... not included in the calculation above:
DePaul (17%) at Seton Hall - SHU has the respect of being above the bubble by enough to not get included. A home loss here though and welcome to the main show. That'd drop them to 6-9 in the Big East. I suspect they'll win and be fine, though.
Georgia Tech (36%) at Pittsburgh - If possible, we'd like the Panthers to move back to Q4 so that if it came down to Rutgers vs. UNC for a bid each team would have a Q4 loss (nevermind that losing to Lafayette remains way worse).
Florida State (8%) at Duke - FSU has no path to the tournament, so all a win does is weaken Duke and the ACC as a whole.
Murray State at Tennessee Martin (6%) - As you can see we're really getting to the dregs. Murray State's an at large team as long as they don't lose one of these Q4 games, and even then they might be.
Duquesne (9%) at St. Bonaventure - The Bonnies probably don't get there even if they win out all the way to A-10 title game before losing, but why risk it?
Air Force (6%) at Wyoming - Not happening.
SIU Edwardsville (3%) at Belmont - DEFINITELY not happening.
If you need a breather you better take it tonight, with only one bubble-adjacent game and even then it's not a big one. Saturday's gonna be a whopper. I've sorted by start time so you can follow along all day.
(FRIDAY) Richmond (36%) at VCU- The Rams are still hanging onto the very fringes of the bubble, appearing on 11/115 brackets as of Wednesday. They have a potential argument as an injury special case, with PG Ace Baldwin hurt for four of their losses. They have some nice road wins and if they can pump up their Q2 win total over these next four games they'll have a shot.
(12:00) TCU at Baylor (88%) - We start with an easy (to explain) one on Saturday. A massive road win at Baylor doesn't lock TCU up but it'd be quite the feather in their cap. No feathers!
(1:00) Dayton at St. Joseph's (32%) - It surprises to me to see Dayton on as many brackets as they are (15 as of Wednesday). The good news for Rutgers fans is that Dayton's start to the season was even worse than RU's. The Flyers have an astonishing three Q4 losses, so if it came down to Rutgers vs. Dayton for a bid then the Scarlet Knights' loss to Lafayette would not be a big data point (as opposed to if it's Rutgers vs. some team with zero Q4 losses). Dayton's been blowing teams out and their upcoming stretch of @ St. Joe's, vs. UMass, @ La Salle isn't terribly difficult. But it would be nice if one of those three teams was able to throw the brakes on the Flyers' ascent.
(1:00) Notre Dame at Wake Forest - Take your pick. Notre Dame a projected 11 seed, Wake Forest a projected 10. Losing this game isn't going to be the reason either team misses the tournament, they'd also have to lose one (or two) to someone they're not supposed to after this. Wake Forest's rated higher in the NET but their resume is easier to punch holes in. Notre Dame owns a win over Kentucky which is massive. Wake Forest's only win over a tournament team right now is @ UNC and as we'll get to they might not be a projected tournament team by the time the day is through. If Wake Forest loses at home to Notre Dame and then drops one at Clemson or (especially) at home to Louisville or NC State, watch out. So I guess I've talked myself into rooting for Notre Dame here, but it's pretty low stakes so I'm not gonna assign the percentage so it stays out of my expected wins calculation.
(2:00) Oklahoma at Iowa State (58%) - This is a juicy one where a case can be made to root for Oklahoma, but the Cyclones have a decidedly better resume. Oklahoma is probably the better team (KenPom has them 12 spots higher) but heartbreaking 2-point losses to Kansas and Texas in their last two games dropped them to 14-12 and into the danger zone. Their final three are winnable by Big 12 standards (OkSt, WVU, KSU, two of those at home) but they've got @ Iowa State and @ Texas Tech to deal with first. It's likely they need to split those road games.
(2:00) Auburn (69%) at Florida - The Gators 1-point loss to A&M knocked them out of the field, but they have a chance to get a premier win and claw their way back. They can afford at most one more loss (as long it's to Auburn or Kentucky) so this won't be their last appearance in these rundowns, but man oh man it's gonna be a tough road for them if they can't get this one.
(2:00) Kansas State at Oklahoma State (63%) - Gonna be a broken record on this, but with Oklahoma State ineligible for the tournament we want them to beat as many Big 12 bubble teams as possible. They have games left with Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Iowa State. Everyone on the bubble is a HUGE Oklahoma State fan down the stretch. Kansas State has won four of five but they're playing from behind compared to the rest of the Big 12 because they didn't do anything in the non-conference. It's still too early to cross anyone in this conference out even with a loss but with a road trip to Lawrence looming, K-State needs this one. They're currently pretty far out of the field (10th out as of Wednesday), this would be a bad one to lose.
(2:30) Iowa at Ohio State (64%) - I've mentioned this in various posts but Iowa's resume is starting to get some hard second looks. They have a shiny NET number so for now none of the big mainstream bracket guys will raise the issue, but Iowa is 0-6 in Q1 games and Michigan is knocking on the door of making that 0-7 (Wolverines are 31, need to be top 30). If North Carolina is on the stone bubble with their resume (0-7, 4-0, 7-1, 7-0 across the four quadrants) then I don't understand why Iowa is so safely in with theirs (0-6, 5-2, 4-0, 8-0) when the difference is one Q3 loss vs. two Q2 losses. Now, Iowa has many many more chances at improving their Q1 record than UNC. This game and home for Michigan State are their next two and they're both Q1. If they drop these and Michigan climbs into the top 30 we could be talking about an 0-9 Q1 record.
(3:30) Saint Louis (43%) at Davidson - A two-bid A-10 is still in play, but Davidson is by far the best candidate to have an at-large case. Maybe, maybe Davidson could stomach a loss here and stay above the cut line but their win total is wildly inflated with 16 Q3/Q4 games. Good on them for going 16-0 in those matchups, but a Q2 loss here drops them to 2-4 in such games. Of note, SLU is rated higher in KenPom but they'd need to win out to get in the at-large conversation again. Getting swept last weekend by the Bonnies hurt them a lot.
(4:00) North Carolina at Virginia Tech (68%) - The Tar Heels blasted themselves in the foot with a shotgun on Wednesday, and BracketMatrix hasn't yet updated to include their Q3 home loss. If they're still in the field then it's Last 4 In at the moment. They badly need to get on the Q1 ledger (0-7 right now) and this is their best chance. At Duke in Coach K's last home game? Yeah, that's not happening. So they'd better get it done here, or pray Syracuse climbs into the top 75. On the other side Virginia Tech has won six straight to give their fans a faint glimmer of hope. For bubble purposes, if they somehow do get in it's likely to come at the expense of UNC or Miami. If they win here, for instance, the ACC would be down to four projected bids when everyone updates -- UNC and VT would both likely be out and need to play their way in. So right now that's the best outcome for the rest of the bubble.
(4:00) North Texas at UAB - I don't think either team can lose this game and still have an at-large case. I don't even know which team the CUSA offices would be rooting for to maximize their shot at 2 bids this year. Just listing it here because it does involve two teams right in the mix and should be a great under-the-radar game.
(5:00) Virginia (35%) at Miami FL - Close to a take-your-pick special. If Miami wins, Virginia is totally done even if they get the season sweep of Duke. But I'm going to root for the Cavs here to put a dent on Miami's resume. Of all the ACC bubble teams, Miami has the toughest road left (not saying much considering that conference is garbage). But they have to go at Pittsburgh (ask UNC how the Panthers are playing lately), home for Virginia Tech (still top 30 in KenPom), and at Syracuse. So the best outcome is for Virginia to win here and then lose to Duke on Wednesday, and then to root against Miami in their remaining games.
(6:00) Utah State (33%) at Boise State - Boise State is currently very safely in the field but the back end of their schedule is sneakily tricky. They can absorb a few losses but can they get in losing 4 of 5? It's quite unlikely that they DO lose 4 of 5, but the first step to losing 4 is losing 1 so let's go. Utah State was rated in the 30s by the computers a week and a half ago but they're down to #52 in KenPom and have no viable at-large path left.
(6:00) Drake (21%) at Loyola Chicago - Loyola is currently on the 9 line and is the only shot at a 2-bid MVC. Ideally they just win the conference tournament, but if they can take a Q2 loss here then the at-large picture is worth monitoring for them.
(8:00) Kansas (71%) at West Virginia - The Mountaineers desperately need a big win like this to reverse their slide. They've lost 9 of their last 10 and have fallen far from the pack. But... all six of their remaining games are Q1 so they have a chance to salvage what's currently a 2-10 Q1 record. A loss to Kansas doesn't kill them for good but it'd be time to call the ambulance.
(10:00) Oregon at Arizona (94%) - Please, Wildcats, do not give this Oregon team a lifeline.
(10:00) BYU at St. Mary's (73%) - BYU is right on the razor edge of the bubble. Lunardi has him as his last team in. A win over SMC would be massive for them, making them a near-lock (as long as they don't fumble the ball against LMU and Pepperdine to close the year). There's no shame in dropping a Q1 road game like this, but as I mentioned in the recap I like San Francisco's resume more than BYU's (and San Francisco's NET is higher). If they lose this, they'll be sweating on Selection Sunday unless they do something big in the WCC tournament. SMC is safely in, so there's nothing to be gained by them losing. Coming off games with Gonzaga and San Francisco (the latter of which likely sealed their bid), and with Gonzaga looming again next Saturday, there should be a big motivation edge in favor of BYU.
(10:00) San Diego State at Fresno State (55%) - This is a big big one to end the night on. Fresno is a good team with almost no path to the tournament, so that's exactly who we want a team currently projected at Last 4 In to be facing. When the margins are that thin, any loss (even a Q1 road loss, as this would be) is a welcome sight. SDSU would get penalized more for losing this than we would for losing at Purdue, for instance.
EXPECTED WINS: 9.03 in 17 games. Can't complain with 9-8. We're happy with 10-7 or better, or if it's the right 9-8 (or even 8-9). It's really bad if Oregon or TCU gets a top 5 road win. It's bad if BYU, West Virginia or Iowa gets a big ranked win. We'd really like San Diego State, BYU, and North Carolina to lose as they're all in the fielld but closest to the cut line at the moment. Those are the biggest ones I think.
On the fringes... not included in the calculation above:
DePaul (17%) at Seton Hall - SHU has the respect of being above the bubble by enough to not get included. A home loss here though and welcome to the main show. That'd drop them to 6-9 in the Big East. I suspect they'll win and be fine, though.
Georgia Tech (36%) at Pittsburgh - If possible, we'd like the Panthers to move back to Q4 so that if it came down to Rutgers vs. UNC for a bid each team would have a Q4 loss (nevermind that losing to Lafayette remains way worse).
Florida State (8%) at Duke - FSU has no path to the tournament, so all a win does is weaken Duke and the ACC as a whole.
Murray State at Tennessee Martin (6%) - As you can see we're really getting to the dregs. Murray State's an at large team as long as they don't lose one of these Q4 games, and even then they might be.
Duquesne (9%) at St. Bonaventure - The Bonnies probably don't get there even if they win out all the way to A-10 title game before losing, but why risk it?
Air Force (6%) at Wyoming - Not happening.
SIU Edwardsville (3%) at Belmont - DEFINITELY not happening.
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I completely get that. My point is a little different than this though. In 2019 we got lucky with SFA and some of our other opponents weren’t quite as bad as this year’s group. You don’t really know which mid-majors are going to be a little better than others and outside of getting an SFA that turns out to be an auto bid 13ish seed contender it really shouldn’t matter if you beat 19-9 Boston University or 12-15 Merrimack. Merrimack lost by 1 at BU by the way - as a simple example. At a certain point, a cupcake is a cupcake and a slightly bigger cupcake shouldn’t matter at all for selection. Losing to one is bad - regardless of which one.
BAC is definitely correct on this. Play a little better team that is likely to land in the 200’s not 300’s and play on a damn real holiday tournament already. That way you remove one of the arguments against inclusion that their OOC strength of schedule is dreadful. Schedule 1 or at most 2 , 300 level teams and the rest from above. This was an unusual year that we lose all except Clemson in the mid tier , which unfortunately is mimicking the conference slate losing to the mid and lower tier but are 7-1 against the top 8.
I agree.
For a points/efficiency based system I don't agree. A win can hurt you but that's how it's supposed to work. Any game you play can help you, if you win by enough. The problem with the RPI (and some other W/L only metrics) is not so much that wins can hurt you, it's that some games can ONLY hurt you.
I think Colley has this issue too FWIW. And it's not that trivial to solve because you will end up with weird situations for undefeated/winless teams where their rating is just equal to their best win. Which is not necessarily terrible but it seems weird to throw out every other game. Obviously this is less of an issue with basketball than something like football.
Our matchups haven't been that bad.
Clemson was a tournament team last year.
Syracuse was a bubble team in 2020 before we played them in the 2021 season.
Pitt was trash in 2019 before we played them in the 2020 season (there was some optimism they'd be better under Capel).
Miami was a tournament team in 2018 before we played them in the 2019 season.
Florida State was a tournament team in 2017 before we played them in the 2018 season.
Prior to that we were horrible so we can't complain about who we faced. If they were sending us to play Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest every year that's a different story. It's a TV event so all the big names are going to face each other, which is fine.
