the issue is that RU has several of these losses to not terrible but not good schools and thats another reason why the net struggles
BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 2/14 UPDATE 2/19 ON PAGE 17
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the issue is that RU has several of these losses to not terrible but not good schools and thats another reason why the net struggles
I’ll be honest, don’t think Michigan deserves to be in right now.
thats fair, I would have RU a bit higher but once Joe leads the way watch other bracketologists besides Jerry Palm all start falling in line putting RU above the last 4 in
I have a rule I cannot project a school just 2 games above 500 in the NCAA tourney. That is why I have Oklahoma out. I take issue with Joe having them in as last four byes over Rutgers
Still a joke that UM and IU are "in" above us.
would be happy to fly to SD!
Was just there for 7 days, damn — we could’ve met for a beer.
In this scenerio, RU loses at Purdue, Michigan, and Indiana, Wisconsin at home but then beats Penn State. I think that 4 game losing streak has them on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the B10 tourney where they probably need to win 2 games to get in
I think 19 is the number for Rutgers fans to feel very comfortable on selection sunday but 18 wins if 12-8 in league, RU upset in first round B10 game likely 75% in
Palm coming up with new metrics to keep us out.
Not enough Thursday wins
No wins in states that start with the letter i
He definitely hates us for some reason, maybe because he's a Purdue guy.
The three games I am watching most tonight are
Creighton at De Paul
Michigan at Iowa
San Fran at St Marys
Huge bubble impacts that directly effects 5 schools and indirectly effects the last 4 in/out line
Creighton at De Paul
Michigan at Iowa
San Fran at St Marys
Huge bubble impacts that directly effects 5 schools and indirectly effects the last 4 in/out line
We've been through this last year so nothing earth shattering but the 10 is usually a very good spot. You basically have a coin toss game against 7 and can sometimes get a weak 2, avoiding the 1 until the elite 8.
Win out and like Wisky a few years ago we will be on the 3 line or better.
Right now, be on recent performance and how well we are playing, a 4 seed.
Based on body of work (metrics be damned) somewhere between 7 and 10.
Justice-based bracketology.
Watchel has RU in the last 4 in...still think he is playing catch up. How can Indiana be ahead of RU right now. No argument for that.
We want to be in the 7-10 game in the east with providence waiting as a 2
Interesting rule but I would have Oklahoma in over Michigan at this moment. A win tonight @Iowa would certainly change that.
Oklahoma has more impressive OOC wins (@UCF, Florida and Arkansas) - Michigan really has no good OOC wins.
They have one good conference win (Texas Tech) and two decent ones (ISU and @WVU) - Michigan has one good conference win (Purdue) and one decent one (@Indiana).
Finally Oklahoma has 3 very close losses to very good teams (2 vs. Texas, 3 vs. Kansas and 2 @Kansas) - Michigan has 1 kinda close loss to a very good team (6 @Purdue) as well as a 2-point loss to SHU. The rest of their losses have really been shellackings.
I don't understand San Francisco as a 9. Their three Q1 wins have to be the weakest set of Q1 wins out there AND they have a Q4 loss.Watchel has RU in the last 4 in...still think he is playing catch up. How can Indiana be ahead of RU right now. No argument for that.
They're the third 10 seed on Bracket Matrix and that's with one nutty bracket that has them as a 5 seed. If I had time I'd copy the BracketMatrix data over and throw out the obvious nonsense like that. Like another guy has three A10 teams (VCU, Bona, SLU) on the 12 line. I think these are algorithms but when they're that clearly wrong I don't know why they're included.
EDIT: The bracket that has San Francisco as a 5 right now was the last-place rated bracket last year with 12 misses (not even getting into seed misses). It's literally just a power rating crammed into a seedline list. I wish BracketMatrix let me throw that one out of its calculations.
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That's understandable. Pickup games weren't good enough for you on the east coast.
So basically if we win only 1 more game, we’re probably out. I think we all knew that
so Jerry has moved from not even last 4 out to above the last 4 in as an 11 seed right now.
Right now 3 top bracketologists have us above last 4 in....GREAT STUFF
Right now 3 top bracketologists have us above last 4 in....GREAT STUFF
i have to remember to sign up for this so i can get listed. I also am scratching my head at the inclusion of SMU in brackets right now...they have a Q4 loss to go along with a Q3..how on earth is beating Houston a 5 seed and Memphis who is last 4 in last 4 out type deserving of a bid.
you are right on San Francisco, its a pedestrian resume, Alot of peeps not doing their homework and clinging to the NET like its a god.
Wyoming is another one in trouble if they lose those 2 quad 1 games in the MWC
that 2 games above 500 thing is a pretty good rule (in non covid years last year was the exception. You are right...decent wins but until they get 3 games above 500 they remain out for me. Michigan of course with a loss becomes 13-11 so the same rule applies for them
They were 17-14 before the NIT. But still.
The other thing he fails to mention is some of their 7 “Q1” wins were not against tourney teams.
The 4 wins over at large teams in the field were Houston - 6 seed, A&M (2 time) - 7 seed, and Michigan (first 4).
The season isn’t over and RU already has 5 wins over teams that he has seeded better than all of these teams in his current bracket - Purdue (2 seed), Wisconsin (2 seed), Illinois (4 seed), Ohio State (5 seed) and Michigan State (5 seed).
the fact that he vaulted RU in the field to an 11 from not even last 4 out yesterday means he either was sleeping on RU or was deliberately being an obtuse troll. Its literally their job to analyze yet they seem so far behind
The problem is when they update they use their last bracket as a reference instead of actually sitting down and revisiting each team. I understand there are some time constraints but still.
Ahh too bad! We could have caught one of these games together! Lmk next time I'd grab a beer and talk Rutgers for sure. My friends are tired of hearing me talk about RU 🤣
🤣 jersey pick up ball is the best!
Year round outdoor pickup ball with palm trees and a sunset is amazing though
this
there are so moving parts, you cannot just plug in, Rutgers win last night boosted their profile tenfold and needs to be reevaluated vs Indiana and San Francisco and TCU. They are caught up in not moving teams down too much when in reality 3 weeks away, the movement should be constand and ever changing
Wachtel is saying RU is in last 4 because of their NET so it seems like he values overall NET as the way to seed.
It's the same problem with ranking teams too early in polls. You set the baseline and move from there instead of a more objective overall analysis. It's more based on a reference point which was likely not all that accurate in the first place in many cases
Houston is #4 in the NET and does not have a win vs any school projected in the field
I noticed our friends could tighten up a little bit with a loss to DePaul. They'd have a 4 game losing streakand the basket might look a little smaller
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Saw your back and forth with wachtel. It sucks but its hard to disagree with him. Hes always top 10 most accurate and its not like its his opinion its what he believes the committee will do. And he frankly almost always nails it
