BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 2/14 UPDATE 2/19 ON PAGE 17
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Wow big sequence... Pitt tried a baseball pass inbound, got picked off, and then UNC coughed it up on a completely unforced error. Pitt comes back with an and-1. Up 9.
Pitt wins... UNC just shot themselves in the foot with a shotgun. Q4 loss as of right now. There's a chance they climb to Q3 by the end of the year but UNC's entire resume was based on "no losses outside the first quadrant." That's done now and in a bad way.
Rutgers was 36% to win, so it would've been 2.52 expected wins. We got Rutgers, Alabama, and Pitt. I'll take it.
SMU and Boise State still in action looking comfortable but you never know.
Old friend Tai Strickland has 17 for the Owls. If he chose us we wouldn't have taken Caleb.
Any chance of a 3 bid American is gone. It was a slim one but Lunardi had it as of today which was nonsensical. You can't say Houston is a signature win for SMU and Memphis but then evaluate Houston as a 5 seed. Their resume is super weak, no Q1 wins. So beating them should not have rocketed Memphis and SMU up so high.
Today couldn't have gone any better for us both with us winning and Pitt/Temple pulling upsets.
I'd have taken Harper not getting hurt. The big win over Ohio State came with Miller rolling his ankle, too - hopefully Harper is back as quickly.
I am really going to have to numbers crunch but IMO the bracketologists will still be catching up tomorrow and in the coming weeks.
RU probably sits in the 8/9 game at the moment, but Ill get bac to you guys on this
RU probably sits in the 8/9 game at the moment, but Ill get bac to you guys on this
the SMU loss moves them out of the field and the UNC loss will take them out of the field for now...that means 2 schools will slide in....Kansas State and Michigan..for now
Thursday Bubble Chaos Rooting Guide
Wednesday: 2.16 expected wins, 3 actual wins (Alabama, Temple, Pitt) - Mississippi State's at large case is gone, they needed a big win and didn't get it over Alabama. SMU's took a hit with a loss at Temple although noted lunatic Joe Lunardi still has them in the field. And Pittsburgh was the surprise of the night, going up 20+ at UNC and white-knuckling their way to a win (the margin got as low as 6). UNC's resume was clean with all their losses in Q1 but that is no more. Pitt is technically Q3 now but they could still drop back to Q4. It's a major black eye for the Tar Heels.
Creighton at DePaul (51%) - Bubble Game Of The Night, from the POV that Creighton is closest to the cut line with the best chance of losing. Creighton is currently the last projected team in the field at Bracket Matrix, though this hasn't updated to reflect UNC's loss last night. They avoided stepping on landmines against Butler and Georgetown, but now their schedule toughens up. As Rutgers knows, at DePaul is a bad spot because winning earns you little but losing is a problem. A loss here would drop Creighton to 4-8 against the top two quadrants with a Q3 loss as well and that'd be a very flimsy resume.
Michigan at Iowa (70%) - Iowa is much more safely in the field but their resume is still a little lean with zero Q1 wins. They only have one win over a tournament team and that's Indiana who is slipping. Four of their final 7 are Q1 opportunities, but tonight is a Q2. Iowa has done the "late season swoon" thing many times before. Michigan is hanging around the cut line and could really use this Q1 win... they're just 2-7 to date. Iowa's offense has been on a ridiculous heater albeit against Maryland and Nebraska. At 13-10, Michigan really need to put some more wins on the board.
San Francisco at St. Mary's (67%) - The Dons are hanging onto the 10 line but their resume feels one big win short. Their current Q1 wins are UAB on a neutral (UAB is 48, the cutoff is 50), at Santa Clara (they're 72, cutoff is 75) and at BYU (this one is safe). It's not crazy that they could go from 3 Q1 wins to 1 on any given night. They have this game tonight at SMC and then host Gonzaga next week. St. Mary's would make the field even if they lost 3 of their final 4 (vs. SF, vs. BYU, at San Diego, vs. Gonzaga) so we're rooting for them to down both San Francisco and BYU and possibly knock the WCC to 3 bids.
Colorado State at New Mexico (30%) - Richie Pitino's boys are fresh off a big win over Wyoming. They stay at home in The Pit to host Colorado State. The Buffs are safely in on the 8 line but if New Mexico knocks them off too then the strength of the MWC as a whole maybe starts to get re-evaluated.
Oregon at Arizona State (40%) - Arizona State dealt a death blow to Washington State's resume last time out, now they have a chance to put a serious dent in Oregon. The Ducks still have four Q1 chances after tonight so they wouldn't be dead, but a loss at ASU would have them firmly out of the field for the time being. This one is a 9 PM tip if you're interested in some west coast ball but can't stay up for San Francisco-SMU, which will end after midnight. If not, check the Jacob Young thread tomorrow morning, I'm sure it will be productive and enlightening discourse as always.
UCF (9%) at Houston - Tonight's only "unlikely candidate" game, but as Pittsburgh showed us last night anything in possible. The Cougars are #4 in the NET despite an 0-3 record, which seems pretty stupid to me. They've been shaken by injuries but held it together until losses to SMU and Memphis. They spanked UCF in Orlando earlier this season but the Knights have wins over Michigan, Memphis, and at Miami. Houston is a heavy favorite but UCF has more than a 9% chance here in my estimation. Now, Houston is obviously a tournament lock but the more losses they pick up the more wins over them (by SMU and Memphis specifically) are cheapened.
Expected wins: 2.67
Would be nice:
Not worth including in my calculation above but Santa Clara is at Loyola Marymount (30%). Right now the Broncos are just barely holding on as a top-75 team. A loss here would make BYU and St. Mary's losses to them and San Francisco's win over Q2 instead of Q1, weakening the overall WCC profile.
CUSA special: I don't see Conference USA pulling off 2 bids but there's a very very remote chance. North Texas is #41 in the NET. If they go 17-1 in that league (which includes winning at UAB) and then get to the CUSA title game and lose, they'll get some consideration. Ultimately I think their lack of big wins does them in. Right now their only Q1 win is at Wichita State and the Shockers are right on the Q1/Q2 border at #74.
North Texas has their second-toughest remaining game tonight at Florida Atlantic (41%). A FAU win would fully extinguish this tiny flame. UAB also hosts Rice, but as a 91% favorite it's hardly worth keeping tabs on this.
Wednesday: 2.16 expected wins, 3 actual wins (Alabama, Temple, Pitt) - Mississippi State's at large case is gone, they needed a big win and didn't get it over Alabama. SMU's took a hit with a loss at Temple although noted lunatic Joe Lunardi still has them in the field. And Pittsburgh was the surprise of the night, going up 20+ at UNC and white-knuckling their way to a win (the margin got as low as 6). UNC's resume was clean with all their losses in Q1 but that is no more. Pitt is technically Q3 now but they could still drop back to Q4. It's a major black eye for the Tar Heels.
Creighton at DePaul (51%) - Bubble Game Of The Night, from the POV that Creighton is closest to the cut line with the best chance of losing. Creighton is currently the last projected team in the field at Bracket Matrix, though this hasn't updated to reflect UNC's loss last night. They avoided stepping on landmines against Butler and Georgetown, but now their schedule toughens up. As Rutgers knows, at DePaul is a bad spot because winning earns you little but losing is a problem. A loss here would drop Creighton to 4-8 against the top two quadrants with a Q3 loss as well and that'd be a very flimsy resume.
Michigan at Iowa (70%) - Iowa is much more safely in the field but their resume is still a little lean with zero Q1 wins. They only have one win over a tournament team and that's Indiana who is slipping. Four of their final 7 are Q1 opportunities, but tonight is a Q2. Iowa has done the "late season swoon" thing many times before. Michigan is hanging around the cut line and could really use this Q1 win... they're just 2-7 to date. Iowa's offense has been on a ridiculous heater albeit against Maryland and Nebraska. At 13-10, Michigan really need to put some more wins on the board.
San Francisco at St. Mary's (67%) - The Dons are hanging onto the 10 line but their resume feels one big win short. Their current Q1 wins are UAB on a neutral (UAB is 48, the cutoff is 50), at Santa Clara (they're 72, cutoff is 75) and at BYU (this one is safe). It's not crazy that they could go from 3 Q1 wins to 1 on any given night. They have this game tonight at SMC and then host Gonzaga next week. St. Mary's would make the field even if they lost 3 of their final 4 (vs. SF, vs. BYU, at San Diego, vs. Gonzaga) so we're rooting for them to down both San Francisco and BYU and possibly knock the WCC to 3 bids.
Colorado State at New Mexico (30%) - Richie Pitino's boys are fresh off a big win over Wyoming. They stay at home in The Pit to host Colorado State. The Buffs are safely in on the 8 line but if New Mexico knocks them off too then the strength of the MWC as a whole maybe starts to get re-evaluated.
Oregon at Arizona State (40%) - Arizona State dealt a death blow to Washington State's resume last time out, now they have a chance to put a serious dent in Oregon. The Ducks still have four Q1 chances after tonight so they wouldn't be dead, but a loss at ASU would have them firmly out of the field for the time being. This one is a 9 PM tip if you're interested in some west coast ball but can't stay up for San Francisco-SMU, which will end after midnight. If not, check the Jacob Young thread tomorrow morning, I'm sure it will be productive and enlightening discourse as always.
UCF (9%) at Houston - Tonight's only "unlikely candidate" game, but as Pittsburgh showed us last night anything in possible. The Cougars are #4 in the NET despite an 0-3 record, which seems pretty stupid to me. They've been shaken by injuries but held it together until losses to SMU and Memphis. They spanked UCF in Orlando earlier this season but the Knights have wins over Michigan, Memphis, and at Miami. Houston is a heavy favorite but UCF has more than a 9% chance here in my estimation. Now, Houston is obviously a tournament lock but the more losses they pick up the more wins over them (by SMU and Memphis specifically) are cheapened.
Expected wins: 2.67
Would be nice:
Not worth including in my calculation above but Santa Clara is at Loyola Marymount (30%). Right now the Broncos are just barely holding on as a top-75 team. A loss here would make BYU and St. Mary's losses to them and San Francisco's win over Q2 instead of Q1, weakening the overall WCC profile.
CUSA special: I don't see Conference USA pulling off 2 bids but there's a very very remote chance. North Texas is #41 in the NET. If they go 17-1 in that league (which includes winning at UAB) and then get to the CUSA title game and lose, they'll get some consideration. Ultimately I think their lack of big wins does them in. Right now their only Q1 win is at Wichita State and the Shockers are right on the Q1/Q2 border at #74.
North Texas has their second-toughest remaining game tonight at Florida Atlantic (41%). A FAU win would fully extinguish this tiny flame. UAB also hosts Rice, but as a 91% favorite it's hardly worth keeping tabs on this.
"noted lunatic Joe Lunardi" 😂
These posts are great by the way, although after last night hopefully we can relax a bit in terms of following the bubble teams.
Great job as usual. You and BAC are terrific at this. One little Pet peeve of mine has to do with DePaul. They have been hurt plus had the Covid pause after they beat us. They have also been playing without their Marcus Liberty , who played for them and was a big part of their win. Despite that they beat Xavier on the road and have lost some heartbreakers. They are not a terrible team and that was not a terrible loss. That’s all
De Paul isnt good come on, they are what they are, just like Maryland and Northwestern. Low end power 6 schools
Lunardi has not updated yet, neither has Palm...two days for him...these guys are literally paid for their jobs and to not update everyday is malfeasance especially when they get paid for meaningless brackets consrtucted in January
Shelby Wag of USA Today who dogged us two years ago has elevated RU beyond last 4 in...he gets it. Has RU as an 11 seed, the 7th team in
www.bracketwag.com
Shelby's Bracket WAG
They are not terrible and have lost a lot of close games against the top half of the BIG East with all their obstacles. Agreed not good but certainly not terrible to be considered a bad bad loss
They're not good but they're not Pitt, Nebraska, or Georgetown level abhorrent. They've actually been playing pretty good ball lately, wins over Georgetown and Xavier and close losses to Providence and Butler (combined 5 points, one OT). With Javon Freeman-Liberty back, they're drawing live against Creighton tonight.
They were 10-7 with Freeman-Liberty, and 2-5 without him. He's back now - maybe they can win a few and improve that loss a bit for us.
Credit where it's due, Lunardi has in fact dropped SMU out after saying yesterday "SMU loses its AQ designation with a loss but would likely remain in the field as an at-large."
He realized that you can't rate Houston as a 5 seed (which actually seems accurate, despite the huge divergence from their NET) but then give credit to Memphis and SMU whose one "big" win each is Houston. Memphis also has an Alabama win, and their win was AT Houston, so they're deservingly higher than SMU.
Bart still predicting SMU and UNC as Last Four In, and Rutgers as 5th team out.
Now is the time to stop checking Torvik's site as far as bracketology goes. The humans have a better grasp on this stuff now.
I could say the same for NET, but that drives a big part of the data given to the committee - especially the quadrant records.
RU vs USC seems to be the consensus Round of 64 opponent in Bracketologies today...and why not? NY/Philly/NJ media market vs LA media market would be a ratings boom.Shelby Wag of USA Today who dogged us two years ago has elevated RU beyond last 4 in...he gets it. Has RU as an 11 seed, the 7th team in
Shelby's Bracket WAG
has there ever been an at large team with an under .500 record against Quad 2 and 3 (combined) teams?
This stuff is all still theoretical with 5-6 games left. Rutgers still needs to win 2 more games. If the bubble chaos breaks exactly the right way we can have a conversation at 11-9. But the MWC and Big 12 in particular have a lot of games left between bubbly teams.
I’ll be in San Diego for the first/second round. I would probably be one of the very few RU fans who would be ecstatic if we get sent there.
Lunardi came around, this isn’t half bad. I don’t think bac’s will look all that different.
My guess is no because no such team has ever had enough Q1 wins to get into the conversation. A quick glance over the past three years at Warren Nolan confirms.
7 SEEDS
8 SEEDS
9 SEEDS
10 SEEDS
So SMU moves out of the field as the AQ from the AAC and Houston now assumes that spot. Means another bid is open. Boise State is now the projected AQ from the Mountain West and Wyoming now becomes an at large contender. I have projected Xavier as the last safe schools and Iowa State is at the very top of the bubble pecking order. 18 spots total open.
Projecting Rutgers as the 11th team in right now. I considered moving RU all the way up to a 9 seed but to be fair the NET at 75 will be a factor in seeding. RU will get dinged for the bad OOC schedule strength and the losses to Lafayette and UMass and that will be reflected in the seeding. Hopefully RU can win enough down the stretch where the dinging does not send them to the first four games. I know other bracketologists have slept on the RU resume and are playing catch up but based on current resume I cannot see the argument for RU in the last 4 in line at this point if you compare resumes. Remember the bubble is very fluid over 3 weeks away. BIg wins and big losses can really shake up the bracket.
RU can absorb a loss to Purdue without damaging its profile as long as its not a 20 point plus loss.
- ARKANSAS
- XAVIER
- IOWA STATE
- COLORADO STATE
8 SEEDS
- SAINT MARY'S
- IOWA
- MIAMI
- BOISE STATE
9 SEEDS
- LOYOLA CHICAGO
- MURRAY STATE
- SETON HALL
- NOTRE DAME
10 SEEDS
- RUTGERS
- WYOMING
- TCU
- INDIANA
- CREIGHTON
- WAKE FOREST
- BYU
- OREGON/SAN FRANCISCO
- KANSAS STATE/MICHIGAN
- DAVIDSON
- NORTH TEXAS STATE
- IONA
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- OKLAHOMA
- MEMPHIS
- NORTH CAROLINA
- BELMONT
- SMU
- STANFORD
- VIRGINIA
So SMU moves out of the field as the AQ from the AAC and Houston now assumes that spot. Means another bid is open. Boise State is now the projected AQ from the Mountain West and Wyoming now becomes an at large contender. I have projected Xavier as the last safe schools and Iowa State is at the very top of the bubble pecking order. 18 spots total open.
Projecting Rutgers as the 11th team in right now. I considered moving RU all the way up to a 9 seed but to be fair the NET at 75 will be a factor in seeding. RU will get dinged for the bad OOC schedule strength and the losses to Lafayette and UMass and that will be reflected in the seeding. Hopefully RU can win enough down the stretch where the dinging does not send them to the first four games. I know other bracketologists have slept on the RU resume and are playing catch up but based on current resume I cannot see the argument for RU in the last 4 in line at this point if you compare resumes. Remember the bubble is very fluid over 3 weeks away. BIg wins and big losses can really shake up the bracket.
RU can absorb a loss to Purdue without damaging its profile as long as its not a 20 point plus loss.
Would loveto see Houston again this year in the dance and give them a statement beatdown
I have a feeling covid concerns still lingering will try to keep schools more in their natural regions
currently Iowa State on the 7 or 8 seed line is 1-2 vs Q2 and 3. They are 8-7 vs Q1
there was never a time to even look at Torvik for NCAA tournament analysis, unless someone wants to try and give me an argument
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