BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 2/14 UPDATE 2/19 ON PAGE 17

[kcg88]

Wednesday Bubble Chaos Rooting Guide
Pretty light bubble slate tonight as the best games don't have any bubble implications - Baylor at Texas Tech, Seton Hall at UConn. Purdue at Northwestern is worth checking out to see if the Boilers can look good for a change. But all three of those games are 8:30 or 9:00 tip times and I suspect we'll all be drowning our sorrows or toasting to Pikiell around that time. Three teams close to the bubble are facing tomato cans, we'd be thrilled if one of them loses.

Miami at Louisville (42%) - Game of the night from a bubble perspective. The Hurricanes are the closest in-the-field bubble team with the best chance of losing tonight. Miami is on the 10 line right now with an 8-5 record in the first two quadrants but they have an iffy NET (67th). Their schedule is loaded with Q2 bombs like this one the rest of the way. One weird quirk is that they don't play any of the other ACC bubble teams (Notre Dame, UNC, Wake Forest) the rest of the way so their fate is entirely in their hands.

Mississippi State at Alabama (72%) - The lights are pretty close out to out for the Bulldogs and this is sort of their last gasp. They're just 2-7 in Q1 games and only have two more definite opportunities (@ Texas A&M is on the border right now). With a loss here they'll have to win out and probably do some work in the SEC tournament. A win gives them a path.

SMU at Temple (39%) - Tonight's version of Memphis at Cincy. The Tigers took care of business to keep themselves in it. On Sunday, SMU will host Memphis and the winner of that will vault into the field. Best outcome is SMU getting caught looking ahead here, but then rebounding and beating Memphis.

The unlikely candidates...

Boise State at Air Force (19%) - Very unlikely but hey we can still root for it.

Boston College (16%) at Notre Dame - Also very unlikely, though BC did win this matchup in Chestnut Hill. Notre Dame can't afford a bad loss like this.

Pittsburgh (10%) at North Carolina - Tar Heels are going to win this game by 20+.

UMass (18%) at St. Bonaventure - The Bonnies were written off but they can still get in the at-large conversation if they win out. Not very likely, and one loss probably ends that dream, so might as well make it to UMass which will help Rutgers in a very small way.

Expected wins for our rooting interest: 2.16

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

To be clear, it’s not that likely to happen, and maybe not an outcome to root for. I’ll let BAC comment on that. Im not really sure. Its an odd, almost ironic situation where finishing ahead in the standings might hurt us.

That scenerio would involve a poor finish from both OSU 3-4 and Michigan State which would weaken those wins. At 12-8 we’d still probably prefer the marquis wins to sparkle on the resume than get the bye.

....and the real question would be what happens if we go 18-13.

 

[kcg88]

BTW last night was 4.94 expected wins for our rooting interest and we got 5. Considering that Michigan State (loss) and TCU (loss) were lower stakes than some others, overall a good outcome.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

KCG write up deserves coffee and oatmeal....good stuff! Not cruller worthy

 

[bac2therac]

To be clear, it’s not that likely to happen, and maybe not an outcome to root for. I’ll let BAC comment on that. Im not really sure. Its an odd, almost ironic situation where finishing ahead in the standings might hurt us.

That scenerio would involve a poor finish from both OSU 3-4 and Michigan State which would weaken those wins. At 12-8 we’d still probably prefer the marquis wins to sparkle on the resume than get the bye.

Im not worrying about getting a double bye put good lord if we get it, we are mortal locks...come on people

 

[RU848789]

Im not worrying about getting a double bye put good lord if we get it, we are mortal locks...come on people

Absolutely.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

On the other hand I just looked at colley’s actual results and am not impressed

But Sagarin and Massey both used to have no MOV versions in the BCS days.

If you are not adverse to letting MOV affect the strength of schedule component then wins above bubble and strength of record are both good.

Would be better - I like strength of record. I wish there was a count metric of games played against bubble or better rather than SOS being so average based. One game against the best team in the country (that you have no prayer of winning) can really skew strength of schedule in its current form. How many losable games did you play is more meaningful in my opinion than playing a couple really hard OOC games and losing them.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Im not worrying about getting a double bye put good lord if we get it, we are mortal locks...come on people

Illinois L
at Purdue L
at Mich W
Wisc L
at IU W
PSU W

PSU L in B1G

18-13 is that good enough?

 

[kcg88]

Illinois L
at Purdue L
at Mich W
Wisc L
at IU W
PSU W

PSU L in B1G

18-13 is that good enough?

Having the head to head wins over Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana would really help in this scenario.

 

[RU23]

Illinois L
at Purdue L
at Mich W
Wisc L
at IU W
PSU W

PSU L in B1G

18-13 is that good enough?

I’d put the odds of getting in at 65%

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Remaining schedule for the race to double byes,

Ill(11-3)- @ RU, @ MSU, vs OSU, @ UM, vs PSU, vs Iowa, 3H(6-1), 3R(5-2)
Wisc(11-4)- vs UM, @ Minn, @ RU, vs Purdue, vs Neb, 3H(5-2), 2R(6-2)
Purdue(11-4)- @ NW, Vs RU, @ MSU, @ Wisc, Vs Ind, 2H(7-1), 3R(4-3)
OSU(9-4)- vs Iowa,vs Ind,@ Ill,@ Md,vs Neb,vs MSU,vs UM, 5H(5-0), 2R(4-4)
RU(9-5)- vs Ill, @ Pur, @ UM, vs Wisc, @ Ind, vs PSU, 3H(6-1), 3R(3-4)
MSU(9-5)- vs Ill, @ Iowa, Vs Pur, @ UM, @ OSU, vs Md, 3H(5-2), 3R(4-3)
Iowa(7-6)- vs UM,@ OSU,vs MSU,@ Neb,vs NW,@ UM,@ Ill, 3H(5-2), 4R(2-4)
UM(7-6)- @ Iowa,@Wisc,vs RU,vs Ill,vs MSU,vs Iowa,@ OSU, 4H(4-2), 3R(3-4)

Illinois 5th, 6th, 4th, 8th, 11th, 7th
Wisc 8th, 12th, 5th, 3rd, 14th
Purdue 10th, 5th, 6th, 2nd, 9th
OSU 7th, 9th, 1st, 13th, 14th, 6th, 8th
RU 1st, 3rd, 8th, 2nd, 9th, 11th
MSU 1st, 7th, 3rd, 8th, 4th, 13th
Iowa 8th, 4th, 5th, 14th, 10th, 8th, 1st
**UM 7th, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 6th, 7th, 4th**
Toughest schedule left

 

[fluoxetine]

Would be better - I like strength of record. I wish there was a count metric of games played against bubble or better rather than SOS being so average based. One game against the best team in the country (that you have no prayer of winning) can really skew strength of schedule in its current form. How many losable games did you play is more meaningful in my opinion than playing a couple really hard OOC games and losing them.

Massey calcs SOS based on your team strength instead of an average.

https://masseyratings.com/theory/sched.htm

You might also be interested in the Elite L% SOS measure on Bart

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

So are we now in the camp that says 3 regular season wins makes us close to a lock?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Remaining schedule for the race to double byes,

Purdue(11-4)- @ NW, Vs RU, @ MSU, @ Wisc, Vs Ind, 2H(7-1), 3R(4-3)
Ill(11-3)- @ RU, @ MSU, vs OSU, @ UM, vs PSU, vs Iowa, 3H(6-1), 3R(5-2)
Wisc(11-4)- vs UM, @ Minn, @ RU, vs Purdue vs Neb, 3H(5-2), 2R(6-2)
OSU(9-4)- vs Iowa,vs Ind,@ Ill,@ Md,vs Neb,vs MSU,vs UM, 5H(5-0), 2R(4-4)
MSU(9-5)- vs Ill, @ Iowa, Vs Pur, @ UM, @ OSU, vs Md, 3H(5-2), 3R(4-3)
RU(9-5)- vs Ill, @ Pur, @ UM, vs Wisc, @ Ind, vs PSU, 3H(6-1), 3R(3-4)
Iowa(7-6)- vs UM,@ OSU,vs MSU,@ Neb,vs NW,@ UM,@ Ill, 3H(5-2), 4R(2-4)
UM(7-6)- @ Iowa,@Wisc,vs RU,vs Ill,vs MSU,vs Iowa,@ OSU, 4H(4-2), 3R(3-4)

one would think MSU is not getting to 13. Pur, Ill and Wisc probably pencilled in at 13+

OSU would have to go 3-2 at home and lose @ MD OR go 2-3 at home. All assuming lose @illini2

I think 85+% chance 4 seed has 13 wins.

 

[bac2therac]

Illinois L
at Purdue L
at Mich W
Wisc L
at IU W
PSU W

PSU L in B1G

18-13 is that good enough?

60/40since we probably knocked Indiana and Muchigan out and gathered 2 more Q1 wins to potentially give us 7

Sure id like to win that big 10 tourney game good measure so we arent sitting on the edge of our seats

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Im not worrying about getting a double bye put good lord if we get it, we are mortal locks...come on people

One would hope so but for us to finish 4th at 12-8 would also mean OSU and Michigan State each lose 4 more games. Where would they be in the bracket if that happened? 8-9ish seeds? I think we would probably still get in but to make up for the bad losses - I think I’d feel better having more wins over top 6 seeds on that selection board than finishing better in the standings (since the committee doesn’t consider conference record). I.e. I think we’re still rooting for those guys to keep winning even though we’re chasing them in the conference race?

 

[fluoxetine]

So are we now in the camp that says 3 regular season wins makes us close to a lock?

I am not, I think we need 4 more wins.

19-12 (13-7) or 19-13 (12-8)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

one would think MSU is not getting to 13. Pur, Ill and Wisc probably pencilled in at 13+

OSU would have to go 3-2 at home and lose @ MD OR go 2-3 at home. All assuming lose @illini2

I think 85+% chance 4 seed has 13 wins.

I agree - OSU will probably win 4 more (don’t see them losing at home to either Nebraska or Indiana) and they will be favored in all but one remaining game. but it’s not 100%.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I am not, I think we need 4 more wins.

19-12 (13-7) or 19-13 (12-8)

I agree - we need 4 for lock status. And 2-4 in the next 6 would probably mean we need to win 2 in the tourney. For certain if those 2 were Indiana and PSU (I don’t care if Indiana would technically be Q1. Doesn’t matter). Realistically, we’re not on solid enough footing right now to absorb 4 straight losses even to really good teams. If that happened - we’d fall pretty far down the bubble chart and beating Indiana and PSU to close the season probably would not move the needle that much to move us back.

We need to continue to ride the wave of wins. Tonight is important.

 

[needmorecowbell]

Having the head to head wins over Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana would really help in this scenario.

I agree. Those three games maybe the most important. We could be in a bubble battle with Indiana and Michigan.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

One would hope so but for us to finish 4th at 12-8 would also mean OSU and Michigan State each lose 4 more games. Where would they be in the bracket if that happened? 8-9ish seeds? I think we would probably still get in but to make up for the bad losses - I think I’d feel better having more wins over top 6 seeds on that selection board than finishing better in the standings (since the committee doesn’t consider conference record). I.e. I think we’re still rooting for those guys to keep winning even though we’re chasing them in the conference race?

that's my concern....some of the wins we have that look good now could look less good.

 

[G- RUnit]

I agree - OSU will probably win 4 more (don’t see them losing at home to either Nebraska or Indiana) and they will be favored in all but one remaining game. but it’s not 100%.

Think OSU is very good just wonder if they will thrive or get worn down.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Illinois L
at Purdue L
at Mich W
Wisc L
at IU W
PSU W

PSU L in B1G

18-13 is that good enough?

Yes. Dayton

 

[G- RUnit]

The 50th best team making a miracle run to the final four isn’t an argument for expanding the tourney.

It kinda is the exact reason. And Lots of play in teams have done fairly well.

 

[bac2therac]

I am not, I think we need 4 more wins.

19-12 (13-7) or 19-13 (12-8)

to feel safe...yes four more wins but we could get in with just 3

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Yes. Dayton

Let me add 2 wins against Mich and win at IU into plays to our head to head advantages

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Combined B1G 19-20, 20-21
Illinois(29-11) H 16-4 R 13-7 / 8.0-2.0(6-1) 6.5-3.5(5-2)
Purdue(22-17) H 14-5 R 8-12 / 7.0-2.5(7-1) 4.0-6.0(4-3), missed 1H(20-21)
Wisc(24-16) H 15-5 R 9-11 / 7.5-2.5(5-2) 4.5-5.5(6-2)
OSU(23-17) H 14-6 R 9-11 / 7.0-3.0(5-0) 4.5-5.5(4-4)
Rutgers(21-19) H 15-5 R 6-14 / 7.5-2.5(6-1) 3.0-7.0(3-4)
MSU(23-17) H 15-5 R 8-12 / 7.5-2.5(5-2) 4.0-6.0(4-3)
Iowa(25-15) H 17-3 R 8-12 / 8.5-1.5(5-2) 4.0-6.0(2-4)
UM(24-13) H 14-5 R 10-8 / 7.0-2.5(4-2) 5.0-4.0(3-4), missed 1H,2R(20-21)

 

[bac2therac]

update for 2/16

LAST FOUR BYES

• INDIANA
• CREIGHTON
• WAKE FOREST
• BYU

LAST FOUR IN

• SAN FRANCISCO
• OREGON
• NORTH CAROLINA
• RUTGERS

FIRST FOUR OUT

• KANSAS STATE
• MICHIGAN
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• OKLAHOMA

NEXT FOUR OUT

• MEMPHIS
• STANFORD
• BELMONT
• VIRGINIA

Rutgers vs San Francisco in the First Four!


With a win tonight, Rutgers moves up from the last four in line to above the last four bye line

 

[needmorecowbell]

to feel safe...yes four more wins but we could get in with just 3

I agree. 3 can do it. It may matter which 3 but 12-8 in the Big ten regular season should be enough.

 

[fluoxetine]

It kinda is the exact reason. And Lots of play in teams have done fairly well.

Not sure how that is an argument for expanding the tournament. Just because a team can theoretically win some games in a row doesn’t make them automatically deserving of a spot?

 

[bigmatt718]

One change I'd like to see is to give 2 of the Play In games to the Palestra in Philly, and 2 of the Play In games stay in Dayton. Palestra is the arena that started it all, and I think having 2 of the First Four games in there is good for historical reasons.

 

[kcg88]

One change I'd like to see is to give 2 of the Play In games to the Palestra in Philly, and 2 of the Play In games stay in Dayton. Palestra is the arena that started it all, and I think having 2 of the First Four games in there is good for historical reasons.

That would be awesome. I went to the Ivy League tournament when it was there and it was a great time.

Also, they did the First Four all on one night last year in Indy. That was better too. 2 games in Dayton, 2 in Philly, all played on the same night. That's the way to go.

 

[dconifer]

Did not read this yet, but in my opinion:

RUTGERS IS GOING TO NCAAs!

 

[RU23]

Is this the worst the ACC has ever been?

Terrible at football to boot.

 

[fatsam98]

Lunardi moved us up a spot to 4th team out.

 

[goru7]

You guys debating 3 or 4 is so damn depressing. How about we continue the streak of beating Quad 1 teams (3-0) home and away like we have done and fight for a share of the title. These teams have to prepare for our entire team now not 1 guy and face us playing to our potential. We beat Illinois tonight all the depressing pessimistic nonsense will be over. Going to be a classic likely shown on Rutgers Classics for years to come.

 

[bac2therac]

Lunardi moved us up a spot to 4th team out.

View embedded media

look at Lunardi being coy...yes RU is is his bracket if they beat Illinois, he is being delibrately obtuse. His analysis of SMU remaining in the field over RU if the Mustangs lost to turd Temple is outrageous.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Did not read this yet, but in my opinion:

RUTGERS IS GOING TO NCAAs!

Don't count Danny Manning out...didn't he take Kansas to Final 4 as an 11 seed! Ayala gets healthy and Fats Russell stops shooting so much they can win B1Gt and go all the way!

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Still a joke that UM and IU are "in" above us.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You guys debating 3 or 4 is so damn depressing. How about we continue the streak of beating Quad 1 teams (3-0) home and away like we have done and fight for a share of the title. These teams have to prepare for our entire team now not 1 guy and face us playing to our potential. We beat Illinois tonight all the depressing pessimistic nonsense will be over. Going to be a classic likely shown on Rutgers Classics for years to come.

Depressing is losing to UMASS, DePaul, Lafayette and barely beating NJIT. Merrimack and Lehigh. Getting annihilated in the 1st half against NW 2 weeks ago. losing to PSU bu 17, failing to beat a bad Minnesota team with 1/2 a team. Depressing is getting destroyed by Seton Hall and Illinois in a 10 day period.

Talking about finiding 3-4 wins and wondering if it will be enough is exciting. Especially when the computers, the same one Las Vegas uses to make lines still give us a less than 10% vchance of making the tournament