I couldn't watch more than 10 minutes of the game listening to Walton. Clownish.
BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 2/14 UPDATE 2/19 ON PAGE 17
- Thread starter bac2therac
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We lost to 1…..what if instead of playing NJIT and Lehigh and Merrimack we played Buffalo and UCF and Princeton
if we cannot beat bad teams....6-4 is a terrible OOC performance given the competition
it took a run that you see in college hoops maybe one every three years to do it...figure out that probability
it took a run that you see in college hoops maybe one every three years to do it...figure out that probability
i dont know we got the last place Big East team this year....the ACC is a horrible conference now with 14 schools half of them terrible...you think they are matching RU up with the top schools are or we relegated to the likes of Ga Tech and Pitt and BC. Oooh great we will play Miami again maybe match us with St Johns again in the Big East
3-7 and we are 13-12 right now.
I see where you are coming from. Would have been wrong move with this team.
people are laughing that Iowa only beat Virginia and Utah State while RU beat Clemson which isnt as good as either of Iowa non conference wins
non conference makes up 33% of the record and resume and that NCAA said it matters.
non conference makes up 33% of the record and resume and that NCAA said it matters.
The last-second shot by UMass should have never happened. Rutgers let the guy run down the court to get an easier shot that won the game for them. DePaul shot well above their paygrade and needed all of those shots to win. 8-2 would be much better than 6-4.
It’s ridiculous that Iowa is considered a better win. But what I’m saying is it may be that NET is hitting us with a double edge sword. RPI sort of has Iowa’s number. In the old system they are 57 because when you strip out point margin, the records of their opponents relative to their own record show they are no longer elite. But they still played better “bad teams” than us which is why they are ahead in both systems.
I understand and fully agree that we should take the hit for losing to an awful Lafayette team. Do I think it would be that much different if we lost to Boston University instead just because they are 19-9? No I don’t. After about the 200th or so team, I see it as a terrible loss is a terrible loss (basically the same level of awful) and every home win is basically the same. Rutgers lost to Lafayette and beat a bunch of other so called “better” bad cupcakes. Those teams are all bad - a loss to any of them should be the same. And a win to any of them relative to the others shouldn’t make a lick of difference. Clearly in RPI it does make a difference. It could be that all Q4 games count the same in NET, but I suspect some of that RPI influence is still in there - just camouflaged a little by the inclusion of the efficiency and MOV stuff. There are other flaws with using the efficiency / MOV - it feels like NET is capturing the worst of all the flaws.
well next year we really cannot schedule difficult with what we are losing. I know some are pretty giddy...starters returning very good but the bench is a major concern. There are no Geos and Rons to carry us
It's all about development, as seen in Cliff and Reiber. Maybe Jones, Miller, and Palmquist can answer the bell.
17 point lead and yet UMass was still draining 3s throughout with no adjustment. It was in some ways even worse than the Lafayette loss, the latter was a total failure by coaches and players. Ill excuse De Paul even though it shouldnt happen. You cant have 3 brainfarts, one or two is acceptable... and in the Big 10 we had several, thats also holding us back, no problem losing to Penn State or NW but also lost to Minnesota and Maryland and that Nebby was not pretty. People forget its body of work...and Rutgers has looked pretty bad at times too, Our resume is what it is. Its good enough to get in the tournament and we are playing well now but we cannot ignore the games prior to Michigan St
No, people are laughing (if they are) because their best wins are Virginia and Utah State, while we have wins over Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State.... if Iowa had beaten those teams in B1G play, this isn't even a conversation.
yes it would....look how many plus 300 schools we played and some of them we didnt win by much. Boston U is not Lafayette
The Athletic's latest Bracket Watch did a breakdown of NET vs seeding using the top 48 seeds from 2019 and 2021, removed a few crazy outliers and found that the NET more or less equals your seeding. Seed and NET fall within 5.4 spots of each other. Unless we get our NET up in a big way we could really be looking at the Play In game here.
The quality of the last few games gives Rutgers more than a few opportunities to move up and not be so concerned with this.
non conference performance seems to be downplayed alot here. It matters. Yes Iowa has not done much but they also do not have not have Q3 losses in the Big 10 either, so they have done nothing wrong. Obviously Iowas fate will be determined by whether they can get a quad win or two down the stretch. RU actually has more cushion because they already have amassed Q1 wins and only one game that can be a negative vs Penn State
Most important
- Games by quadrant, listing results and upcoming games
- Records by quadrant, away and neutral
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule (SOS)
- Overall SOS
- Overall road and neutral records
- Non-Division I losses
Some value
- Average NET win and loss
- Overall record
- Non-Conference record, road record
Not nothing, but not very important
- NET and other computer rankings
- Overall home records, non-conference and by quadrant
- Game scoring margins
Not criteria
- Conference records and standings
- AP Top 25, Coaches Poll
- Tournament history
One factor not listed because there is no way to measure it is the "Eye Test." That term gets thrown around a lot because it is part of the subjective nature of the selection process. The committee members watch a lot of games. They will form some opinions based on that. However, if that criterion were to be listed somewhere, it would be under "Not Nothing." If a team really is good, it will show up in the important categories somewhere. If all you have is the "Eye Test," then you have nothing.
One thing is we are having an outlier season, so we probably will be one of those excluded from the sample
We are a crazy outlier.
if RU wins 3 more regular season including 2 Q1s that is not going to matter, Our resume is currently way above the schools near the last 4 in line. Our NET is going to have a tough time getting over 60 pretty much no matter what, its baked in at this point. We are an outlier. Houston is 4 in the NET and likely will be a 4 or 5 seed not a 1 seed.
another bracketologist with RU above the last 4 in,,,they are jumping aboard
Ron's hand is banged up and Geo's groin/hamstring is healed. I don't think their shoulders are sore at all.
Not going to allocated %s (although I am sure I could be goated to) but Paul, Caleb and Cliff are more than doing their part.
If we replaced NJIT and Merrimack with tougher opponents and lose bc we were so bad early on.... our SOS is better, but we have 2 more losses... are our tournament hopes better at 14-11 in that scenario than they are now at 16-9?
That's the point FIG is making... overall yes we should be scheduling better OOC. I think mostly everyone agrees....
but this particular year we were sooooo terrible early we likely would have taken so many losses early the season might have been over before it began
That's the point FIG is making... overall yes we should be scheduling better OOC. I think mostly everyone agrees....
but this particular year we were sooooo terrible early we likely would have taken so many losses early the season might have been over before it began
We should play in a neutral early season tourney every year. It would boost pre-season fan interest and exposure, and there’s limited downside risk.
The correlation between our strength of opponent and win the outcome this year is a mind boggling almost inverse relationship.
With the team at full strength (Geo playing) we are literally undefeated right now against the top 50-60ish.
It’s definitely not the year for Green to be making the point he’s making about risk of more difficult scheduling and us likely having a worse record if we had done that this year. The data says otherwise. But at the same time, we didn’t look better against the slightly worse cupcakes either.
Rutgers is a weird aberration this year. On average, I really don’t think it should matter that much whether you beat NET 250 or NET 305 if your a major conference team. That’s a game you should win either way. In the least though, your metrics should never be worse for playing and soundly defeating a team - which often happens with RPI. It’s hard to really tell what’s going on with NET - lots of stuff all at once.
I think the real question is always do we need to?
We aren't exactly hurting this year for Quad 1 games.
Personally as a fan I don't mind playing creampuffs
The bigger argument that can be made is the creampuffs hurting you in the 1st 2-3 games against real teams. Nothing to do with NCAA talk. The lob to Cliff that works against CCSU gets stolen vs Purdue.
We aren't exactly hurting this year for Quad 1 games.
Personally as a fan I don't mind playing creampuffs
The bigger argument that can be made is the creampuffs hurting you in the 1st 2-3 games against real teams. Nothing to do with NCAA talk. The lob to Cliff that works against CCSU gets stolen vs Purdue.
A scout said in paper today that Reiber is probably most improved player in the conference. Not the same team in many ways.
No. The challenge is national news worthy regardless of who we play but we will now get the harder games as our reputation and 3 straight NCAA caliber teams have surfaced. Just play in a holiday tourney and don’t schedule 6 three hundred level teams like this year.
That is a little tricky . Buffalo was very good before the coach went to Alabama and we could have lost to them 3 years ago. UCF demolished Michigan so that is risky as well and Princeton should contend for the Ivy crown every year but I would play them because I can never see them below 150-200. Now replace Buffalo with one of the Michigans , Eastern or Western and replace UCF with USF then , schedule would be fine.
You wonder if the B1G media contract and the $ associated will have any impact in scheduling.
I want to take a winter trip to Bahamas to see Rutgers. Beach vacation and Rutgers basketball... does it get any better?
Unfortunately we stunk it up against the cream puffs... but if you're a developmental coach with lower recruited gems that need seasoning... these games are supposed to get them the minutes. It didn't work out this year, but the theory of having at least some cream puffs has reasoning behind it.
We could do with a better game or two but still want some easy ones on there. The B1G is grueling enough and if you perform in conference you'll be fine as we are showing now even with a terrible OOC schedule and not taking care of business
7 SEEDS
8 SEEDS
9 SEEDS
10 SEEDS
Not a lot of games last night but some big moves in the seed list. Say goodbye to Oregon after a bad loss to Arizona State. On reevaluation vs those around them, Memphis moves into the field for now. Michigan moves up and above the first 4 with the win at Iowa. Meanwhile Iowa with no Quad 1 wins and just one win over a team "in the field" slips down to the last 4 bye line even behind Indiana. St Mary's is all but a lock now after winning over San Francisco. The Dons move to last team in. BYU now slips to the first four.
RUTGERS now moves up to the 9 seed line after the Iowa loss as they now have 7 wins over schools projected in the NCAA tournament.
Things are still very fluid and even schools on the 9 line are no locks for at large bids.
- ARKANSAS
- XAVIER
- SAINT MARY'S
- COLORADO STATE
8 SEEDS
- IOWA STATE
- BOISE STATE
- MURRAY STATE
- LOYOLA CHICAGO
9 SEEDS
- MIAMI
- SETON HALL
- RUTGERS
- NOTRE DAME
10 SEEDS
- WYOMING
- TCU
- INDIANA
- IOWA
- CREIGHTON
- MICHIGAN
- WAKE FOREST
- BYU/KANSAS STATE
- MEMPHIS/SAN FRANCISCO
- DAVIDSON
- NORTH TEXAS STATE
- IONA
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- OKLAHOMA
- NORTH CAROLINA
- BELMONT
- SMU
- VIRGINIA
- OREGON
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
Not a lot of games last night but some big moves in the seed list. Say goodbye to Oregon after a bad loss to Arizona State. On reevaluation vs those around them, Memphis moves into the field for now. Michigan moves up and above the first 4 with the win at Iowa. Meanwhile Iowa with no Quad 1 wins and just one win over a team "in the field" slips down to the last 4 bye line even behind Indiana. St Mary's is all but a lock now after winning over San Francisco. The Dons move to last team in. BYU now slips to the first four.
RUTGERS now moves up to the 9 seed line after the Iowa loss as they now have 7 wins over schools projected in the NCAA tournament.
Things are still very fluid and even schools on the 9 line are no locks for at large bids.
I still think the issue isn't our schedule. It was losing to UMASS, DePaul and Lafayette.
UMASS game is perfect. A bus ride that is an away game against a better foe (normally) than NJIT.
Clemson, at Depaul, at UMASS, and at SHU along with 2 B1G games early. That is plenty
Not a fan of early B1G games, but I like 20 games and I like 2 games per week so that is only solution.
UMASS game is perfect. A bus ride that is an away game against a better foe (normally) than NJIT.
Clemson, at Depaul, at UMASS, and at SHU along with 2 B1G games early. That is plenty
Not a fan of early B1G games, but I like 20 games and I like 2 games per week so that is only solution.
A few thing:
1) It hasn’t hurt Rutgers yet in the quality win department, but it easily can. Just ask V-Tech about that. A year will come where the unbalanced schedule doesn’t offer as many elite opportunities at the RAC. Or the BIG happens to have a down year.
2) Nobody is talking about scheduling Gonzaga type teams. These neutral brackets have mixed level teams in them and if you don’t win the the first you play a losers bracket and so on. If we’re bad enough to lose 3 straight in one of those 8 team fields, it’s very likely we’d be laying some bad eggs against the cupcakes at home. The most likely outcome would be us winning at least 1-2 games if not the whole thing (depending on who else is in it) - along with picking up at least one neutral win. That’s why I say there’s not much downside risk.
I've noticed he tweets stuff way earlier than it gets published on ESPN website. Makes them look really amateur to be honest.
