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BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 3/7......NEW UPDATE 3/12 1PM PAGE 37

Tomorrow

Duke over Virginia tech
Iowa over Illinois
Arkansas over Texas A&M

Davidson over St Louis
Richmond over Dayton
(Want Davison winning A-10)


Houston over Tulane
Memphis over SMU
(Want Houston winning AAC)

If all of that happens …I think we get the first bye and the 11 seed in no Dayton

Every one of those events that doesn’t happen …puts us on the real bubble as first 4 in and out

Time to
The Wally-Pike Long Island connection at work !!
Palm’s bracket from 76 still has rutgers last 4 out !
Rutgers will be one of the most talked about teams tomorrow so it will be great to expose that idiot even more when we get a bid.
 
Putting Shack's post in chronological order, today's viewing guide...

1:00pm -- Texas A&M v. Arkansas (ESPN). Aggies likely in with another upset win here in SEC semifinal

1:00pm -- Indiana v. Iowa (CBS). Indiana likely already in but for optics, Iowa blowing out the Hoosiers wouldn't hurt us

1:00pm -- Davidson v. St Louis (CBSS). Need Davidson to win A10 tournament in the hopes that it's a one-bid league

3:00pm -- Houston vs Tulane (ESPN2). Tulane an unlikely bid thief so we want Houston here who are favored by 13.5 points

3:30pm -- Dayton v Richmond (CBSS) in the other A10 semifinal. Dayton is more likely to sneak into the field as an at large so rooting for Richmond here. Plus playing Dayton in Dayton would suck if it came to that

5:00pm -- SMU v. Memphis (ESPN2). SMU might be in anyway but a loss to Memphis will have them sweating tomorrow

8:30pm -- Virginia Tech vs Duke (ESPN), Hokies might be in even with a loss here but it'll be close


Other local games of note, Princeton plays Cornell at 11am in Ivy semifinal and St Peters and Monmouth face off in MAAC championship at 4.

We should pin this post on the board for today
 
yes..and I will add Davidson is not an absolute lock as an at large...a probable

I think it’s VT or ND. Both have two Q1 wins, and to put both in would be tough.

It’s the VT metrics vs the ACC record of ND.

Both scheduled poorly. I lean VT now
 
The bottom line is and always has been a moving of the goalposts for the fans who truly don't want RU to win, they don't want have RU to have success and don't follow CBB in general.

If we had a more focused fanbase who just watches CBB, follows and understand what is a good team vs not, RU fans would understand the following as we moved through the season.

First it was lacking road wins....

Then it would be because we lost to Minnesota or Northwestern or Penn State on the road.

The negative RU fans ignored how important beating Maryland on the road was.....

The key to the season was getting out of Lincoln Nebraska with a win and then rallying in a loss to NW......it gave Mulcahy the boost of confidence to play better and RU ultimately earned its bid by winning 4 straight vs 4 ranked teams.

RU cemented the bid by winning at an improving Indiana team and defeated a Penn State program, that has not quit on a season, after getting destroyed by Nebraska on their home court 2 or so weeks ago.

We can have rooting interest on a couple more games today, but RU to me is in the field and there's always trolls who will say otherwise. Body of work against quality opponents is the overall factor, anyone ignoring that or talking about anything else, is just not aware of what other bubble teams have or haven't done themselves.
Amen! You nailed it Hawk.
 
I think an Indiana loss today and we still have a good case ahead of them. They’re pretty similar to our resume in where we’re bad at, perhaps not as bad, but where we are good we are a fair bit ahead of them. Plus we have the H2H win on their home court
 
Bracket Dave has us as last 4 byes, same as Lunardi

Assuming today isn't a disaster for us with results elsewhere, thinking the Committee compromises and sticks us in Dayton.
I think we get 11 seed
We have so many more wins against projected field than other bubble teams
Not much difference between 12 and 11
As 12 win 1st game and get 5 seed
As 11 get 6 seed
 

Tomorrow

Duke over Virginia tech
Iowa over Indiana
Arkansas over Texas A&M

Davidson over St Louis
Richmond over Dayton
(Want Davison winning A-10)


Houston over Tulane
Memphis over SMU
(Want Houston winning AAC)

If all of that happens …I think we get the first bye and the 11 seed in no Dayton

Every one of those events that doesn’t happen …puts us on the real bubble as first 4 in and out

Time to sweat

Oh wonderful lol. We need to hit some degenerate's parlay to get in!
 
This punishing for poor non-conference crap is a complete myth. The snubs about punishment for poor non-conference of past yester-years have ALWAYS been product of not beating enough At Large teams because of it. Think of those V-Tech snubs in the years it was Duke, NC and the rest. V-Tech didn’t beat the top heavy schools. And they scheduled an awful OOC. So they had no wins over solid NCAA locks because of the non-conference. They do not talk about non-conference slates when overall SOS is 31. At least I’m not ever recalling it,
 
Just wish Rutgers played like the top 15 team they have flashed they can be. all this talk be moot.

I truly they hope they get in and then get truly angry to prove the world they belong and go on a tear like during that 4 game gauntlet stretch this year
 
The bottom line is and always has been a moving of the goalposts for the fans who truly don't want RU to win, they don't want have RU to have success and don't follow CBB in general.

If we had a more focused fanbase who just watches CBB, follows and understand what is a good team vs not, RU fans would understand the following as we moved through the season.

First it was lacking road wins....

Then it would be because we lost to Minnesota or Northwestern or Penn State on the road.

The negative RU fans ignored how important beating Maryland on the road was.....

The key to the season was getting out of Lincoln Nebraska with a win and then rallying in a loss to NW......it gave Mulcahy the boost of confidence to play better and RU ultimately earned its bid by winning 4 straight vs 4 ranked teams.

RU cemented the bid by winning at an improving Indiana team and defeated a Penn State program, that has not quit on a season, after getting destroyed by Nebraska on their home court 2 or so weeks ago.

We can have rooting interest on a couple more games today, but RU to me is in the field and there's always trolls who will say otherwise. Body of work against quality opponents is the overall factor, anyone ignoring that or talking about anything else, is just not aware of what other bubble teams have or haven't done themselves.
not exactly understanding who you're talking about Hawk? Is it really true Rutgers fans doing this (yes people are doing it) or is it the talking heads out there that have biased interest in their league or network?
Not really seeing the folks here I consider Rutgers fans talking us down vs. defending the resume (of course x-a few hammering the OOC loses which is on the media cliff notes passed around). No not you Bac. You know I respect your work.

Need you to tweet back at them with your great thoughts on this.
 
I’m also shocked Michigan is even being considered for a spot. Clean resume yes…win/losses ugly.

Bac - after you come up with your new bracket can you give an idea where we would end up playing first round. They go..I go
 
Another day of this agony... What's tomorrow...

A&M, VaTech and SMU to lose, Davidson to win.

I wouldn't mind seeing Iowa blow out Indiana either to validate our result a little
If A-10 gets three bids we’re in trouble.
 
not exactly understanding who you're talking about Hawk? Is it really true Rutgers fans doing this (yes people are doing it) or is it the talking heads out there that have biased interest in their league or network?
Not really seeing the folks here I consider Rutgers fans talking us down vs. defending the resume (of course x-a few hammering the OOC loses which is on the media cliff notes passed around). No not you Bac. You know I respect your work.

Need you to tweet back at them with your great thoughts on this.

I don't burn a lot of energy on this stuff, it's not that complicated. I pointed out Palm was a fraud 2 years ago and again last year....with the SEC and CBS linked for years, he is a shill for the SEC and admitted he doesn't like RU.

I don't see how any sane RU fan, would mention the OOC schedule, unless you want to have 14 to 15 losses today instead of just 13. I would not change anything about the OOC schedule, unless you are maybe talking about 1 neutral site game.

The overall SOS is more than sufficient and we have played quality basketball for the better part of 3 months. I just think there are people ignoring how suspect some other leagues have performed and why those schools are getting a free pass.

To me, there are about 8 schools that will be seeded too high and once the matchups come out, don't be surprised if lower seeded teams are favorites over higher seeded ones....

I also don't believe in the seeding aspect as a strength of the team or rosters at play. I do think and maintain that from the low 7 seed through the middle 11 seeding range, there are about 14 to 15 teams that essentially look the same most years. The seeding of those games by the committee then has the job of figuring out not only the potential best 1st game matchup, but what could be a potential Round of 32 matchup, depending on storyline that may not be known, unless you are a diehard of a specific school.

The seedings to me aren't relevant or an indication of how close or not close you are to making the NCAAs. The 1st four matchups are also geared to generate ratings or discussion, so I don't put much stock into Dayton or no Dayton like others do, but if you want a storyline or what "should" happen, Michigan and Juwan Howard is the most interesting storyline for teams in the 11 to 12 seed range.

If I wanted to have a reason to watch Tuesday or Wednesday games, it would be because the talk would be Michigan, Howard and whatever potential next matchup could be if they win.

At the same time, in general, we all claimed that one day we wanted a chance to have RU on the Selection Sunday show. And I don't need to rehash the posts from 6 to 7 years ago where fans said they just wanted to make the Dance one time......it is now going to be 3 straight NCAA caliber seasons in a row, so some legitimate perspective is warranted. We earned our way and won tough games to do so.
 
I’m also shocked Michigan is even being considered for a spot. Clean resume yes…win/losses ugly.

Bac - after you come up with your new bracket can you give an idea where we would end up playing first round. They go..I go
Not to get ahead of ourselves but assuming we're an 11 or 12 seed that means 1st/2nd round we avoid the 1 seed pods and the 2 seed pods.

Based on who the projected 1/2 seeds currently are, a lot of which are western/southern teams, our chances of the first weekend being in the eastern half of the country are pretty good.

I'll go more into it after seeing how today plays out.
 
Bracket Dave has us as last 4 byes, same as Lunardi

Assuming today isn't a disaster for us with results elsewhere, thinking the Committee compromises and sticks us in Dayton.
If these are “true”. Then we are in. And issue is just seeding. Who knows!
 
I created a list of wins and losses by referees and one name keeps standing out over and over. Why is it Bo Boroski has referee'd in 6 of our 13 losses, and the almost loss vs Ohio St. ONE and SIX(1-6). No one else more than 2 losses Bo Boroski there for a Rutgers game. He was there with Szelc for @ OSU meltdown last year, Pfieffer and Boroski there vs Iowa 75-77 last year, Boroski, Pfieffer, Cruz vs Iowa yesterday. According to some, there is nothing to see here.

Szelc is favor the home team ref, McNutt seems to swallow his whistle on everything, 0-2, Earl Walton was involved in 2 games where our exactly 15 pt 2nd half lead, 1 loss(UMass, 72-57 8:54), 1 win(vs PSU 12:54, +13 9:24) seems a little too coincidental. Cruz/Pfieffer bad together @Minn, @ Neb, Iowa yesterday, fine seperately.

Losses
1)@ DePaul Garrison, Riley, Szelc
--Rutgers 21 PFs, FTs 4-6 DePaul 13 PFs, 18-33
2)vs Lafayette Steve Honacki, Brian McNutt, Boroski
Swallowed their whistle, except for fouls on 3 PT attempts
3)@ UMass Alfred Smith, Young, Earl Walton
--RU 17 PFs, FTs 12-15, UMass 12PFs, FTs 21-27.
4)@ Minnesota McNutt(2), Pfieffer, Cruz
--Rutgers 12 PFs, Minnesota 11 PFs, 7 eligible swallowed their whistle
These 4 bothered me the most

5)@ Illinois Beaver, Szelc, Boroski(2)
6)@ Seton Hall Boroski(3), Roger Ayers, Jeffrey Anderson
7)@ PSU Garrison, Beaver, Eppley
8)Vs Md McJunkins, Daily, Carstensen
9)@ Northwestern Simpson, Green, Boroski(4)
10)@ Purdue Bill Ek, Bert Smith, Kimble
11)@ Michigan Young, Garrison, Carstensen
12)Vs Wisc. Daily, Green, Boroski(5)
13)Yesterday Iowa Boroski(6), Pfieffer, Cruz

Wins
Lehigh(73-70) Wells, Kimble, Cruz
Merrimack Rahir, Kashirsky, Scirotto
NJIT Jueneman, Beaver Eppley
Vs Clemson Ek, Garrison, Pfieffer
Vs Purdue(70-68)- Daily, Green, Carstensen
Maine Corbett, Kitts, Riley
CCSU Whetstone, Young, Scirotto
Vs Michigan Kueneman, Oglesby, Scirotto
Vs Nebraska *Cruz*, *Pfeiffer*, Green
@ Md Bill Ek, Scirotto, Carstensen
Vs Iowa(48-46) Wells, Eppley, Green
@ Neb(62-60) Wells, Cruz, Keuneman
Vs Mich St Carstensen, Pfieffer, Szelc
vs Ohio St(66-64) Garrison, Simpson, *Boroski*
@ Wisc McJunkins, Eric Curry, Beaver
Vs Illinois Wells, Ek, Szelc
@ Indiana(66-63) Daily, Kimble, Pfeiffer
Vs Penn St(59-58) Walton, Garrison, Szelc
 
You don’t want St. Louis winning the A-10 and then bids to Davidson and Dayton.
Could easily see this happen. Richmond looked good too. Can see them also stealing a bid. Traditionally NCAA has liked the A10.
 
i am breaking down comparing about 20 resumes and this is ridiculous...Rutgers dwarfs them all...right from Memphis to San Fran to Notre Dame

if you do not look at the silly number and look at results its not even close

more to come stay tuned

Hope the committee sees things like you do bac
 
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i am breaking down comparing about 20 resumes and this is ridiculous...Rutgers dwarfs them all...right from Memphis to San Fran to Notre Dame

if you do not look at the silly number and look at results its not even close

more to come stay tuned
Sounds promising.
 
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