BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21

cm_13

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Indiana survives.. Its good enough for me that Indiana stained their pants majorly
You think you have a comfortable 27 point blowout and the next thing you know you’re shooting must make free throws in a 3 point game. Wild.
 

bac2therac

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You think you have a comfortable 27 point blowout and the next thing you know you’re shooting must make free throws in a 3 point game. Wild.

I would say they were one possession away. That missed Willis 3 down 8 was really their only missed opportunity down the stretch. These comebacks are thread the needle but once they start its almost impossible to stop unless the clock runs out
 

bac2therac

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FMshlzHX0AY87t4
 

ScarletDave

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It’s hard to think the Big Ten will get 9 …
Most likely 7 or 8. It will clearly come down to us, Michigan and Indiana. Beating Indiana and Michigan keep losing will help us out a lot
 
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kcg88

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Loyola being on the Last 4 In as an at-large is as good as them being out for everyone else. Either they get the autobid and bump UNI out of the field, or they take a loss and that almost certainly knocks them out of the field.

Wyoming over San Diego State is a massive one. If SDSU picks up the Q1 road win they're in with another win (against Fresno/Nevada).
 

RU23

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Loyola being on the Last 4 In as an at-large is as good as them being out for everyone else. Either they get the autobid and bump UNI out of the field, or they take a loss and that almost certainly knocks them out of the field.

Wyoming over San Diego State is a massive one. If SDSU picks up the Q1 road win they're in with another win (against Fresno/Nevada).
Curious about bac’s thoughts - I tend to think Loyola can sneak in with a loss in the finals to Northern Iowa at 25-8. Remember, it’s a weak bubble and Northern Iowa isn’t bad. They’ve won 14 of their last 17 (and if they meet in the finals it’ll be 16 of 19). Missouri State and Drake also aren’t bad but I’d think/hope a loss to one of them would kill Loyola’s chances.

Never thought I’d be rooting so hard for Wyoming or especially Syracuse….let’s go Cowboys and Orange…
 
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fatsam98

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Would also be nice for UNC to lose at home to Syracuse tonight but yeah really don't want SDSU picking up a win at Wyoming.

Under the assumption we beat both Indiana and Penn State I was also looking at remaining Big10 schedule and although there's a chance we finish 4th and get the double bye it would be part of a 2-way, 3-way, even 4-way tie at 12-8 (we are well positioned when it comes to tiebreakers).

Is it really better for our resume to be one and done in Indy as a 4 seed on the tiebreaker rules, losing to say Ohio State, vs ending as a 5 seed, beating Northwestern/Nebraska and then losing to Ohio State?

I guess said another way, either way we end 12-8, does.the Committee really care that we came in 4th vs 5th?
 

kcg88

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Curious about bac’s thoughts - I tend to think Loyola can sneak in with a loss in the finals to Northern Iowa at 25-8. Remember, it’s a weak bubble and Northern Iowa isn’t bad. They’ve won 14 of their last 17 (and if they meet in the finals it’ll be 16 of 19). Missouri Stare and Drake also aren’t bad but I’d think/hope a loss to one of them would kill Loyola’s chances.

Never thought I’d be rooting so hard for Wyoming or especially Syracuse….let’s go Cowboys and Orange…
They're the #4 seed so they'll play UNI in their second game. If they get to the finals and lose to Missouri State (currently #65 in NET) then... maybe? I dunno. That's still a Q2 loss.
 

RU23

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They're the #4 seed so they'll play UNI in their second game. If they get to the finals and lose to Missouri State (currently #65 in NET) then... maybe? I dunno. That's still a Q2 loss.
I think they’ll be the 3 seed and Drake will be the 2. They are in a 3-way tie with Drake and Missouri State, but Missouri State has no more games left and Drake and Loyola each have one left. So assuming they both win, they’ll be tied for 2nd and Drake holds the tiebreaker. So it’ll likely be Drake in the semis and UNI in the finals. I’d think a 3rd loss to Drake would kill their chances, but I’m not so sure about a loss to UNI in the finals.
 

kcg88

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I think they’ll be the 3 seed and Drake will be the 2. They are in a 3-way tie with Drake and Missouri State, but Missouri State has no more games left and Drake and Loyola each have one left. So assuming they both win, they’ll be tied for 2nd and Drake holds the tiebreaker. So it’ll likely be Drake in the semis and UNI in the finals. I’d think a 3rd loss to Drake would kill their chances, but I’m not so sure about a loss to UNI in the finals.
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RU23

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I stand totally corrected, but I guess my thoughts still kinda stand lol. I’d think/hope a loss in the semis would have them finished, but a loss in the finals I’m not so sure. Would depend on others (like us getting the win @IU). If we finish with 14 losses they’ll definitely have a case at 24-8.
 

bac2therac

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They're the #4 seed so they'll play UNI in their second game. If they get to the finals and lose to Missouri State (currently #65 in NET) then... maybe? I dunno. That's still a Q2 loss.

=
look deeper, their resume isnt good. The only tourney team they beat is San Francisco who is a last 8 in type team. They lost 5 games in this league and none of them are decent schools. If they had won the regular season yes. They lost to Drake 2x...end of discussion. Do not get fooled by those losses being Q2..in reality those are not good teams, the committee knows
 
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bac2therac

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Curious about bac’s thoughts - I tend to think Loyola can sneak in with a loss in the finals to Northern Iowa at 25-8. Remember, it’s a weak bubble and Northern Iowa isn’t bad. They’ve won 14 of their last 17 (and if they meet in the finals it’ll be 16 of 19). Missouri State and Drake also aren’t bad but I’d think/hope a loss to one of them would kill Loyola’s chances.

Never thought I’d be rooting so hard for Wyoming or especially Syracuse….let’s go Cowboys and Orange…


see my other post above....do not get caught up in the inflated NET for the Missouri Valley teams in Q2.
 
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bac2therac

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Do not assume Wyoming is a lock. A loss tonight and a loss at UNLV puts them in a scary place given then they would be matched up with say Boise State in the MVC semis. Its not an implausible scenerio.

San Diego State does not have a strong profile in terms of wins. The best thing going for them is that they have no bad losses. They have great metrics in the NET

The MVC is getting 3 but the question is do they get 4.
 

RU23

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they both play awful basketball, but like we saw last year, the NCAA tourney is where its at and its all about getting hot and the right matchup
I genuinely don’t think Miami is any better than Maryland. Miami will likely finish with 13 or 14 conference wins, with 5 of their 6 conference losses coming by a COMBINED 10 points. So they could’ve very easily finished 2nd in the conference.

Meanwhile Maryland will likely finish with 6 or 7 conference wins. By that very flawed math, the B1G is twice as good as the ACC.

That league is in the toilet. The Pac 12 I genuinely don’t care about. They have 3 good teams.
 

Greene Rice FIG

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I genuinely don’t think Miami is any better than Maryland. Miami will likely finish with 13 or 14 conference wins, with 5 of their 6 conference losses coming by a COMBINED 10 points. So they could’ve very easily finished 2nd in the conference.

Meanwhile Maryland will likely finish with 6 or 7 conference wins. By that very flawed math, the B1G is twice as good as the ACC.

That league is in the toilet. The Pac 12 I genuinely don’t care about. They have 3 good teams.
Maryland wouldnt have a wining record in ACC in my opinion. It seems as if they don't know how to win.
 
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RU23

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Maryland wouldnt have a wining record in ACC in my opinion. It seems as if they don't know how to win.
Convincing wins over us, Illinois and OSU say otherwise. They also beat Florida who’s now a bubble school and had very close losses to MSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

They have a squad. Everyone thought Wahab would be a really nice piece after dominating the Big East, but the B1G is a different animal.

I may be exaggerating a tad but it’s only a tad…the ACC besides Duke is very bad.
 

Greene Rice FIG

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The problem is they lose close games. Maybe they are .500.

they are 0-2 vs ACC ALREADY, but that isn’t exactly fair given it was against the top 1/2 teams.
 
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Scarlet Blind

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Can't stand when bracketologists do that, putting 2 teams from the same conference into the play in game, if they can avoid it, they will always put 4 seperate conferences in the play in, 2017-18 the exception when there was no close calls. Honestly I dont think Indiana is in at Q1/2 6-10, there are over 50 teams with better Q1/2s, Q1/2/3s with blips with better resumes.

2011 play in VCU/USC, Clemson/UAB
NIT 1 seeds Bama, Colo, BC, VA Tech

2012 play in BYU/Iona, Cal/USF
NIT 1 seeds Wash, Tenn, Seton, Ariz

2013 play in Boise St/LaSalle, MTSU/St.Mary's
NIT 1 seeds Kentucky, S.Miss, Bana, Virginia

2014 play in Iowa/Tenn, NC St/Xavier
NIT 1 seeds SMU, SJU, FSU, Minn

2015 play in BYU/Ole Miss, Boise St/Dayton
NIT 1 seeds ODU, Richmond, Temple, Colorado

2016 play in Tulsa(AAC)/Mich, Vandy/Wich St(MVC)
NIT 1 seeds SBA, S.Carolina, Valparaiso, Monmouth

2017 play in Kansas St/Wake, Prov/USC
NIT 1 seeds Cuse, Cal, Ill St, Iowa

2018 play in SBA(8-5,8-3)/*UCLA*(7-11, 7-1), Cuse(8-12, 7-1)/*Ariz St.*(8-9, 6-3)
11 seeds Loyola Ill, San Diego St, AQ, unusual amount low rated AQs
10 seeds Texas(9-14), Prov(11-10), Butler(10-12), Okla(9-13)
NIT 1 seeds St Marys(5-4, 9-2), Baylor(7-14), Okla St(7-14), Notre Dame(7-11, 4-3)
Looked like the last spot was UCLA or ND.

They judge high mid and mid major resumes differently since the NET, which in turn is a good thing.

2019 play in Belmont/Temple, SJU/ASU
NIT 1 seeds UNCG, Bama, TCU, Indiana

2021 play in UCLA/MSU, Wich St/Drake
NIT 1 seeds Colo St, St Louis, Memphis, Ole Miss

It is unique seeing how they have kind of altered their decision making of what an at-large is over the years. I did the work for the one their hands were tied putting 2 Pac12s into play-in, but if it is close resumes, they will change it around to not let it happen again.
 
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bac2therac

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Maryland wouldnt have a wining record in ACC in my opinion. It seems as if they don't know how to win.


they have a loss to horrible Louisville. Maryland would be a 500 type team but i would expect they would be up and down and at the end of the day they are exactly what their record is now, a medicore team who can jump and win but also can play poorly