BAC , great final analysis . Now that Rutgers is back in the bubble discussion , took a look this morning.
18 onebid leagues without a doubt ..
6 other conferences either 1 or 2 bids or bid stealers that we have to be leary of, AAC likely 2, A-10, likely 2, OVC 1-2, Summit 1-2, Conference USA 1-2, Missouri Valley 1-2. Assuming either Smu or Memphis , assuming Davidson and VCU or Dayton or a bid stealer, Murray State is probably a lock so hope Belmont doesn’t upset them in conference tourney, South Dakota State is not a lock yet but getting close so hope Oral Roberts doesn’t steal a bid if both teams make it to the championship game. , North Texas is not a lock but again do not want UAB stealing a bid from them in the championship game , and finally Loyola , who is closer to lock than South Dakota State and North Texas, hopefully doesn’t lose to Northern Iowa in championship game. So hope for only 8 bids ( 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, and 1). Limit the bid stealers as each one reduces the chance for every team on the bubble.
2 conferences likely with 4 or maybe 3 bids, the Mountain West and The WCC. Definitely Gonzaga , St. Mary,s and San Francisco with BYU on the outside and Boise State, Wyoming , Colorado State with San Diego State on the bubble but with a great Net number . So can hopefor 3 bids each but likely 7 bids between the 2 conferences.
That leaves thePower 6 conferences. 6 bids definitely for the B-12 and SEC , Kansas, Baylor Texas Tech , Texas , Iowa State and TCU and Kentucky, Auburn , Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas and LSU. PAC 12 has 3 locks in Arizona , USC and UCLA; The ACC has 4 almost definites in Duke , Norte Dame, Miami, and UNC ; The Big East has 5 locks in Providence , Villanova, UConn, Marquette, and Seton Hall ; and finally the BIG 10 has 6 locks in Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa. So the.locks from the Power 6 total 30.
To summarize, 18 plus hopefully only 8 from the next group , plus 7 from the 3-4 bid leagues MW and WCC , plus 30 from the Power 6, totals63 bids with 5 available , but that gives the A10 2 bids , where there is debate , The MW 4 which includes San Diego State because of their NET . Rutgers fans and all bubble fans have to root hard there are no bid stealers in the 4 smaller conferences, OVC, MVC, Summit , and Conf. USA
The bubble for those 5 bids in the likely order today is :
1) Creighton
2) Xavier
3) Wake Forest
4) Michigan
5) Rutgers
6) Indiana
7) Oregon
8) Florida
9) Va. Tech
10) Virginia
11). BYU
12) Kansas State
13 ) Oklahoma
14) Texas A& M
15) Dayton
So there will be debate about putting a 2nd A-10 team already in and San Diego State and UNC but I think today , that is the way it looks. We do want to then root for VCU and Dayton and St . Bonnie’s to lose early and often in their tourney and Xavier and Creighton stumble down the stretch , San Diego State and Wake Forest to lose early as well and of course Michigan and Indiana to pile up the losses. Oregon and Florida are the 2 out now that hopefully stay out.