BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21

Greene Rice FIG

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12-14 spots. Pending crazy stuff in post season tournaments taking away bids. In the power conferences that is difficult with the byes and double byes.
 
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bac2therac

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again watch the Pac 12...its the weakest of the majors by far. 3 schools locked in but a bunch of schools like Oregon, Colorado and Arizona State can jump up and win just like awful Oregon State did last year.

I dont see a Texas A&M or Mississippi State being able to win the SEC

Penn State or Maryland arent winning the Big 10

Could OK or KSU surprise in the Big 12....meh they would need a big turnaround

Last year Gtown won the Big East, can St Johns do it this year

the ACC is a garbage conference, would not surprise me to see a garbage school get hot, only takes someone upsetting Duke
 
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fatsam98

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again watch the Pac 12...its the weakest of the majors by far. 3 schools locked in but a bunch of schools like Oregon, Colorado and Arizona State can jump up and win just like awful Oregon State did last year.

I dont see a Texas A&M or Mississippi State being able to win the SEC

Penn State or Maryland arent winning the Big 10

Could OK or KSU surprise in the Big 12....meh they would need a big turnaround

Last year Gtown won the Big East, can St Johns do it this year

the ACC is a garbage conference, would not surprise me to see a garbage school get hot, only takes someone upsetting Duke
Still thinking A10 is a one bid conference?
 

bac2therac

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Still thinking A10 is a one bid conference?
all those bubble schools have to keep winning

VCU meets St Bonnies this week....VCU is closer to getting in so root for St Bonnies but these A10 schools have weak wins that do no not impress me. Davidson is no sure thing to win the conference tourney and they will be a strong at large contender so thats how they get 2 bids.
 

friar10

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again watch the Pac 12...its the weakest of the majors by far. 3 schools locked in but a bunch of schools like Oregon, Colorado and Arizona State can jump up and win just like awful Oregon State did last year.

I dont see a Texas A&M or Mississippi State being able to win the SEC

Penn State or Maryland arent winning the Big 10

Could OK or KSU surprise in the Big 12....meh they would need a big turnaround

Last year Gtown won the Big East, can St Johns do it this year

the ACC is a garbage conference, would not surprise me to see a garbage school get hot, only takes someone upsetting Duke
Last year Baylor and Gonzaga were on another level from any other team. Think things are wide open this year. I personally am not that impressed with Gonzaga this year.
 

Scarlet Blind

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again watch the Pac 12...its the weakest of the majors by far. 3 schools locked in but a bunch of schools like Oregon, Colorado and Arizona State can jump up and win just like awful Oregon State did last year.

I dont see a Texas A&M or Mississippi State being able to win the SEC

Penn State or Maryland arent winning the Big 10

Could OK or KSU surprise in the Big 12....meh they would need a big turnaround

Last year Gtown won the Big East, can St Johns do it this year

the ACC is a garbage conference, would not surprise me to see a garbage school get hot, only takes someone upsetting Duke
Pac 12 leaped over ACC for 5th during the conference schedule in Feb.
ACC is the bottom P6 conference.
 

Scarlet Blind

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Iowa is very UNC resume,
#19 Iowa(20-8) Q1 1-5 Q2 6-3 Q3 5-0, vs Q3 NW, @ Q1 Mich, @ Q1 Ill
*Q1 @ Ohio St*, *Q2 Vs MSU, vs Ind, N UtahSt, @ Va @ Minn, @ Md*
#40 UNC(21-8) Q1 1-7 Q2 4-0 Q3 11-0, vs Q3 Cuse, @ Q1 Duke
*Q1 W @ VA Tech*, *Q2 vs VA Tech, vs UMich, @ Clem, @ Ville*

Which seeds do each get if Iowa doesn't win one, @ Mich or @ Ill, and UNC @ Duke, if we win the next 2?
Iowa 21-10 Q1 1-7 Q2 6-3, Q1/2 7-10, Q1 2/3 13-10
UNC 22-9 Q1 1-8 Q2 4-0, Q1/2 5-8, Q1/2/3 17-8
Rutgers 18-12 Q1 6-5 Q2 3-4, Q1/2 9-9, Q1/2/3 12-11

I wish we could have scheduled a Q2/3 somehow Mon or Fri
 
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goru7

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BAC , great final analysis . Now that Rutgers is back in the bubble discussion , took a look this morning.

18 onebid leagues without a doubt ..

6 other conferences either 1 or 2 bids or bid stealers that we have to be leary of, AAC likely 2, A-10, likely 2, OVC 1-2, Summit 1-2, Conference USA 1-2, Missouri Valley 1-2. Assuming either Smu or Memphis , assuming Davidson and VCU or Dayton or a bid stealer, Murray State is probably a lock so hope Belmont doesn’t upset them in conference tourney, South Dakota State is not a lock yet but getting close so hope Oral Roberts doesn’t steal a bid if both teams make it to the championship game. , North Texas is not a lock but again do not want UAB stealing a bid from them in the championship game , and finally Loyola , who is closer to lock than South Dakota State and North Texas, hopefully doesn’t lose to Northern Iowa in championship game. So hope for only 8 bids ( 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, and 1). Limit the bid stealers as each one reduces the chance for every team on the bubble.

2 conferences likely with 4 or maybe 3 bids, the Mountain West and The WCC. Definitely Gonzaga , St. Mary,s and San Francisco with BYU on the outside and Boise State, Wyoming , Colorado State with San Diego State on the bubble but with a great Net number . So can hopefor 3 bids each but likely 7 bids between the 2 conferences.

That leaves thePower 6 conferences. 6 bids definitely for the B-12 and SEC , Kansas, Baylor Texas Tech , Texas , Iowa State and TCU and Kentucky, Auburn , Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas and LSU. PAC 12 has 3 locks in Arizona , USC and UCLA; The ACC has 4 almost definites in Duke , Norte Dame, Miami, and UNC ; The Big East has 5 locks in Providence , Villanova, UConn, Marquette, and Seton Hall ; and finally the BIG 10 has 6 locks in Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa. So the.locks from the Power 6 total 30.

To summarize, 18 plus hopefully only 8 from the next group , plus 7 from the 3-4 bid leagues MW and WCC , plus 30 from the Power 6, totals63 bids with 5 available , but that gives the A10 2 bids , where there is debate , The MW 4 which includes San Diego State because of their NET . Rutgers fans and all bubble fans have to root hard there are no bid stealers in the 4 smaller conferences, OVC, MVC, Summit , and Conf. USA
The bubble for those 5 bids in the likely order today is :
1) Creighton
2) Xavier
3) Wake Forest
4) Michigan
5) Rutgers
6) Indiana
7) Oregon
8) Florida
9) Va. Tech
10) Virginia
11). BYU
12) Kansas State
13 ) Oklahoma
14) Texas A& M
15) Dayton
So there will be debate about putting a 2nd A-10 team already in and San Diego State and UNC but I think today , that is the way it looks. We do want to then root for VCU and Dayton and St . Bonnie’s to lose early and often in their tourney and Xavier and Creighton stumble down the stretch , San Diego State and Wake Forest to lose early as well and of course Michigan and Indiana to pile up the losses. Oregon and Florida are the 2 out now that hopefully stay out.
 
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Scarlet Blind

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Same guy who couldn't score against Caleb, Plummer is lighting up Michigan's D, 5-8, 4-6 from 3, with 16 points

Caleb's defense is showing up as elite in all of college top 30-40 player defensively, the NBA looks might be real. He has good form on his shots, just lacks confidence.
 
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fatsam98

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Great result...now we need Memphis to lose

I still fear eventually 2 go from this league due to shenanigans but 3 is looking less likely
Memphis is at home to Houston next week for regular season finale, who may have nothing to play for by then
 

bac2therac

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That loss for Michigan puts them just 15-12..the win percentage is giving their profile trouble right now. Still in field but will not be able to determine where they fall until a full scrub is done for tomorrow's update
 

fluoxetine

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Somehow, Pac 12 did pass them in NET, Pac 12 90.08, ACC 91.07. Better efficiency than ACC? Can't think of anything else, Margin of victory wouldn't move them.
Oh, because the people doing NET conference rankings are ranking conferences based on average ranking instead of the average actual rating which is not the proper way to do it.
 

fatsam98

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That loss for Michigan puts them just 15-12..the win percentage is giving their profile trouble right now. Still in field but will not be able to determine where they fall until a full scrub is done for tomorrow's update
With Michigan State and Ohio State left
 

Scarlet Blind

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Ohio St is about to go down @ Maryland, down 11, 4 left. 11-6, 3 games left.

What is our ideal place, even if we finish 2-0, I wouldn't want the double bye and face the 5seed as our first game at 18-12. A 5 vs 12/13 or 6 vs 11/14, than the 3 or 4.
 
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bac2therac

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Ohio St is about to go down @ Maryland, down 11, 4 left. 11-6, 3 games left.

What is our ideal place, even if we finish 2-0, I wouldn't want the double bye and face the 5seed as our first game at 18-12. A 5 vs 12/13 or 6 vs 11/14, than the 3 or 4.

If we are the double bye which is pretty unlikely we are locks
 

RU23

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IU taking care of business so far @ Minnesota up 7 at the half despite some good shooting from the gophers.

I’ll be honest…IU deserves to dance and I kinda hope they do. Of course I’m rooting against them for RU purposes but they have a good squad. The three-headed monster of TJD, Thompson and Johnson is impressive and Stewart can really stroke it from 3. Tonight’s been Johnson’s night.
 

bac2therac

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This Indiana group of the past few seasons has always been mentally fragile. Thats why its inperative RU jumps out early against them. They arent gritty and don't have much fight
 
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